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Which team will win play-offs?

edited April 2012 in General Charlton
Based on below, it would appear that whichever Sheffield team finishes 3rd they are unlikely to get promotion - 3rd only promoted twice in 7 years!

2005 - Sheffield Wednesday finished 5th - PROMOTED

2006 - Barnsley finished 5th - PROMOTED

2007 -Blackpool finished 3rd - PROMOTED

2008 - Doncaster finished 3rd - PROMOTED

2009 - Scunthorpe finished 6th - PROMOTED

2010 - Milwall finished 5th - PROMOTED

2011 - Peterborough finished - 4th PROMOTED
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    Also:

    2001 - Reading - finished 3rd - LOST IN FINAL

    2002 - Brentford - finished 3rd - LOST IN FINAL

    2004 - Bristol City - finished 3rd - LOST IN FINAL
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    In the event of Wednesday finishing third and then blowing the play offs I think I would literally pee my pants laughing.

    Would want Huddersfield up as it would be handy for me to get to next season.
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    edited April 2012
    Millwall finished 3rd in 2010 so you can make that 3 in 7 years
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    edited April 2012
    Edit - Double post

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    Millwall finished 3rd in 2010 so you can make that 3 in 7 years
    oops ... thanks for that ... still shows not a foregone conclusion for 3rd place promotion
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    edited April 2012
    Didn't Millwall finish 3rd? By my reckoning 3rd is he most likely based on that.

    Edit: Just seen Olly's got there first!
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    It's all about form BUT finishing third even in such form as Sheffield Wednesday will have a mental impact as they'll be gutted they didn't get second.
    Huddersfield are out of form and will bottle it once again, no once likes the play offs especially sides that have been in the automatic race all season.
    Only sides that like the play offs are the sides that have been mid table all season and then nick 6th place! This could be Notts County, Carlisle or Brentford, but for me I don't think they'll have the quality to win it.

    So for me, MK Dons to win it, play some nice stuff, if they can put a little unbeaten run together from now on, they'll really fancy it.
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    edited April 2012
    you'd think it's about form, but Peterborough only won 3 of their last 10 league games (just 1 of last 4), compared to 7/10 for Hudderfield .... the burden of expectation can weigh heavily.
    That said you'd put money on a Sheffield club this year if one of them finishes third.
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    its the team that hits form ,so I'd fancy whoever out of Brentford , Carlisle ,Notts County or Stevenage.

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    Should Wednesday or Utd finish third I think that both are in such free-scoring and dominating form that they will win the play-offs. Despite losing out on an automatic promotion spot I don't think that will damage their frame of minds. Now, should we fall into the play-off position, well that doesn't bear thinking about...
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    Brentford are going very well at the moment as are Notts County
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    Charlton will win the play - offs. ; )
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    ^^ Damn! I was hoping i'd be the one to post that!

    I reckon it'll be a team sneaking into them to win it, Hudders and UTD/WED will be too annoyed at letting 2nd place slip.
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    We'll be sneaking into the play offs and losing to Barcalisle 12-0
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    Only if their super messi esque striker is out otherwise could be 18-0
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    I think Wednesday or United will do it, whoever finishes third. I don't think the stats from previous years are worth reading in to too much. Both the Sheffield clubs are streets ahead of all others in the mix.
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    brentford. win it on penalties.
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    Only if their super messi esque striker is out otherwise could be 18-0
    That is true
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    I like the positive thinking that we wont be involved in the play offs, were not promoted yet!!!
    but i think we will be at preston ! therefore SUFC playoff winners
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    It's obviously a slow day here, however, I've run the numbers for this division since 1989 (the first year the play offs didn't include a team from the division above) and I've adjusted them to take account of the number of teams promoted and of the 23 seasons the following has occurred:

    3rd 8 times (34.78%)
    4th 6 times (26.09%)
    5th 2 times (8.70%)
    6th 7 times (30.43%)

    Thus in nearly two thirds of the seasons the team that finished third failed to be promoted. The other interesting fact was that in nearly two thirds of the seasons the team promoted was in the 3rd vs 6th Semi. Suggesting that if you can't finish 3rd then you are better off finishing 6th.

    Clearly this has little bearing on one individual season (this one included), and a sample of just 23 seasons is clearly not enough, but it does demonstrate that it is something of a lottery - which I guess we all knew anyway.
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    you could add in L2 and CH figures too!
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    Clearly I'm having a very slow day as I've run the numbers for the second and the forth divisions:

    Second Division (23 seasons)
    3rd 8 times (34.78%)
    4th 3 times (13.04%)
    5th 6 times (26.09%)
    6th 6 times (26.09%)

    Third Division (23 seasons)
    3rd 8 times (34.78%)
    4th 6 times (26.09%)
    5th 2 times (8.70%)
    6th 7 times (30.43%)

    Forth Division (23 seasons)
    3rd 13 times (56.52%)
    4th 3 times (13.04%)
    5th 5 times (21.74%)
    6th 2 times (8.70%)

    All three divisions together (69 seasons)
    3rd 29 times (42.03%)
    4th 12 times (17.39%)
    5th 13 times (18.84%)
    6th 15 times (21.74%)

    The total of the three divisions over the 23 seasons gives us a better sample, but it's still not enough. Interestingly it is still close to two thirds of the time that the winner plays in the3rd vs 6th Semi. It's still a little random but the greater number of seasons in the sample the greater proportion of the teams finishing 3rd go up - as you'd expect on the basis that the 3rd team is better than those that finished below it.

    I think I should get on with some work now.
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    you could add in L2 and CH figures too!
    Ta-Da!
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    I hope you're taking into account that 3rd place in League 2 go up automatically...!
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    For what it's worth, I think whichever Sheffield club finishes 3rd will win the play-offs. Huddersfield have completely bottled it, and have recently lost to Weds and Carlisle. Whoever finishes 6th, I think will perhaps be lacking a bit of quality, and MK Dons have been inconcsistently coasting along in the play-offs, without really threatening - the same way we did 2 years ago. I think the Sheffields are just in form a bit too much at the moment, and they'll have what it takes.
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    Thanks kings hill, that's very interesting (well more interesting than work!)

    4th is the least successful place in the 2nd division, but that's where we finished in 1998 of course!
    5th in Div 3 is strangely unsuccessful, so hard luck MK Franchise.
    Curiously 3rd in div 4 is far more successful that in the other 2 divisions, though a minor correction is that the playoff places for div 4 are actually 4th to 7th (though that would confuse the divisional comparisons)...
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    Agree with 1 or 2 others that us and the sheffields are a cut above the rest. I fancy sheff u to pick up 2nd spot so its the massive for me to win the play offs
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    I hope you're taking into account that 3rd place in League 2 go up automatically...!
    I did. I also took account of the two seasons that the size of the divisions changed. Basically I called 3rd the highest placed finish that was not automatically promoted, otherwise the comparisons would have been rubbish. That's also why I ignored the two seasons that the playoffs included three teams from one division and one from the division above as this was just not the same taking into account form across the whole season.
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    Wednesday will beat Huddersfield in the p/o final
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    Wednesday will beat Huddersfield in the p/o final
    Good call.
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