Promotion where, when and how explained

BensonFC

Table at the minute:

Team Played GD Pts
1. CAFC 42 +43 91
2. Wednesday 42 +29 83
3. United 41 +37 82

IF CAFC win away at Carlisle:

To go up on Saturday away at Carlisle:

Sheffield Wednesday lose OR draw at Colchester.

OR

Sheffield United gain less than 2 points in their next two games against Rochdale and Orient.

To go up at home against Wycombe:

CAFC win away a Carlisle and at home against Wycombe.

IF CAFC lose away at Carlisle:

Can’t go up at Carlisle

To go up at home against Wycombe:

CAFC win against Wycombe AND Sheffield Wednesday drop at least 4 points drop two points in their next two games against Colchester and Carlisle

OR

Charlton win against Wycombe AND Sheffield United drop 4 points in their next 3 games against Rochdale, Orient and MK Dons.


If CAFC draw away at Carlisle

CAFC can’t go up at Carlisle

To go up at home against Wycombe:

CAFC win against Wycombe AND Sheffield Wednesday drop a point in their next two games against Colchester and Carlisle.

OR

CAFC win against Wycombe AND Sheffield United drop 3 points in their next three games against Rochdale, Orient and MK Dons.


You can see for yourselves: http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_div_2/predictor/default.stm

BensonFC

If both Sheffield clubs win all their games, CAFC need 7 points to become Champions.

Chirpy Red

Or put more simply, 4 points will do regardless of what anyone else does.

BensonFC

Yes, relying on goal difference. Sheffield Wednesday can get a maximum of 95 so another 5 points will do.

guinnessaddick

If Sheff Utd lose their next two games, a draw at Carlisle will be good enough.

Bedsaddick

If we lose all our remaining games and the Sheffield Clubs win theirs we will win a pay off semi final place. ( for the countless pesimistic gits on here tonight)

killerandflash

Assuming the Sheff clubs win ALL their remaining games, we'll go up with 5 points, and with our goal difference effectively will go up with 4 points unless we have 2 massive defeats and Wednesday win all their games by a hatful.
Looking at Wednesday's remaining fixtures, it would be a massive achievement to win all of them, so 1 win is almost certainly enough for promotion (though not the title as United have an easier run in)

paulwentout

I'm not sure United's run is easy, Orient are fighting for their lives, Stevenage still have an outside chance of the playoffs Mk Dons away will be tough and Exeter could pull off an escape and United go there on the last day.

killerandflash

No games are easy at this time of year (cliche cliche) as we proved this weekend! However, Sheff Utd are very good at home (Orient and Stevenage) and MK Dons might be safe in the playoffs by that stage, with little to play for. Rochdale tomorrow might prove to be their hardest game.

What's the record points tally for a team finishing 3rd in this division, since playoffs came in? The way the top 3 clubs are going, there's going to be a very unlucky team that misses out.

Rothko

Franchise have to get some momentum before the play offs, you can't go into them cruising, plus Rochdale tomorrow won't be easy. Wednesday have a horrible looking game at Brentford on the penultimate weekend, plus Carlisle at home.

Oggy Red

What's the record points tally for a team finishing 3rd in this division, since playoffs came in?

Last season, Huddersfield totalled 87 points ...... and finished 3rd.
That was a new League One record.

Addickjohn

Has there ever been an occasion when a team with 91 pts has not automatically gone up in a 24 team division? I've gone back over 10 years and can't find one.

jdsd42

fancy rochdale to turn over Sheff utd ,,

Stig

Has there ever been an occasion when a team with 91 pts has not automatically gone up in a 24 team division? I've gone back over 10 years and can't find one.

Yes, Wycombe in 1992; but to be fair their was only one team promoted from their division ;-)

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/conference/1991-1992/table

Oggy Red

Welling Utd finished 12th that season.

Stig

Has there ever been an occasion when a team with 91 pts has not automatically gone up in a 24 team division? I've gone back over 10 years and can't find one.

Just done a bit of checking myself. The most I can find is Sunderland in 1998 who got 90 points, but were beaten by someone in the play-off final ;-)

Off_it

I've used Bodmin Moor Theory and have calculated that if we win our remaining games we will go up as Champions!

Oggy Red

The Bodmin Moor Theory is all black and white....... just thought I'd flag that up.


;o)

kings hill addick

CAFC win against Wycombe AND Sheffield Wednesday drop at least 4 points drop two points in their next two games against Colchester and Carlisle

So which is it? "drop at least 4 points" or "drop two points"

MuttleyCAFC

Yes Sunderland hold that particular 'honour' and we know what happened to them. I suspect that the third place team will get around that figure this season but won't smash it.

Stig

We have four games left. So far our worst points haul this season over four consecutive matches is four (Bournemouth, Colchester, Notts County, Scunthorpe). If we had another blip and replicated that, not there's any reason to think we would, we would end up with 95 points. This is the same as Wednesday would get if they won all of their remaining fixtures. Except that they'd also need to make up 14+ goals. It's looking very good.

Southendaddick

I love some of your optimism Rothko.

If I was gonna pick any single fixture home or away at the moment it would be Rochdale. They are the worst of the bad bunch, already pretty much relegated and Sheff Utd will have three quarters of the crowd.

I think we will seal the deal at home to Wycombe

AFKABartram

@BensonFC cheers for setting that out

Algarveaddick

Rochdale are only giving Utd one end according to my mate who is a season ticket holder at Spotland. Even he can't understand why they are not maximising the income from what is almost certainly their last opportunity for a decent crowd for a while? Helps us a bit though I guess...

MuttleyCAFC

This is the stage of the season where the bottom teams find some bite - Inited are favourites but it certainly won't be easy for them and they will be under immense pressure following Wednesday's results. I can see this one being a draw to be honest.

killerandflash

Rochdale will definitely give Utd a decent contest tonight.

Carlisle will be a tough game, so I'd take a point there, but our last 3 games are very winnable, Wycombe without Doc, a struggling Preston and a mid table Hartlepool, so we could break the 100 point mark if really want to...