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Syria - a genuine question.

Not started this thread to start a ruck but I have a genuine question. What for the love of god is the "humanitarian" difference between not helping those poor people in Homs and other Syrian towns and cities and giving the help we did to the freedom fighters in Libya. It's beyond my understanding.
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  • edited February 2012
    oil

    EDIT: sorry for the one word answer, but that is the reason
  • Russian defence contracts means a Russian veto to any action.
  • Russian defence contracts means a Russian veto to any action.

    yer I guess that doesnt help either
  • edited February 2012
    image and the politics of the middle east
  • Also election years in the US and France and war is likely to be unpopular.
  • Or, for that matter, the people of Zimbabwe, Somalia and God knows how many other African, South American and Asian nations over the past four decades
  • Tragic news about Marie Colvin.

    A colleague for 25 years and one of the most extraordinary journalists I've ever known.

    Even though she constantly put herself in the firing line and so there was always the risk that one day this might happen, I'm shocked almost beyond words.

    The world has to do something about what is happening in Syria. It shouldn't take the death of a westerner/non-Muslim to bring it about, but perhaps this will be the catalyst for stronger action.

    If Glenn Mulcaire was a News International sleaze bag, 'MC' was the jewel in News International's crown.

    RIP, Marie.
  • Or, for that matter, the people of Zimbabwe, Somalia and God knows how many other African, South American and Asian nations over the past four decade.s
    No oil and the cynic in me would say that the people at the top know how powerful a united africa could be. Same as the other places with no oil to offer.. Just one less threat

  • Not started this thread to start a ruck but I have a genuine question. What for the love of god is the "humanitarian" difference between not helping those poor people in Homs and other Syrian towns and cities and giving the help we did to the freedom fighters in Libya. It's beyond my understanding.
    My understanding was that Russia & China would not stand against President Assad & therefore if the UN wanted to step in you had a potential conflict with them.
  • There are two sides in this conflict, both guilty of committing atrocities, Russia and China want this fact to be recognised in any UN action against Syria.
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  • Peter Mandelson a few years ago on Assad :-

    ''A decent man doing a difficult job,''

    Pass the sick bag,,,
  • edited February 2012
    Syria does have oil, although is said to just about becoming an importer of oil for the first time in decades. It also has large gas reserves that are seriously under-developed. Syria is a keystone state, during the civil war in Lebanon they were the opposing foreign power to Israel. With Syria being part of the Ottoman empire, the Alawites and Sunni generally had free movement across modern Syria and Lebanon: I'd imagine to Turkey as well, though I don't know that part of history. Already there is violence in the Lebanon between Alawites and Sunnis:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/hei-fi/views/robert-fisk-ethnic-conflict-spreads-over-the-mountains-6847889.html?origin=internalSearch

    Syria's army is potentially around 650,000, with Alawites being the majority of it's professional army and relatively modern in it's equipment. The Libyan army was poorly equipped and rendered weak by Gaddaffi: around 50,000 soldiers. Intervention is nothing to do with Oil, its is the fact that it is a highly complex situation with indeterminate outcomes. Both the US and Israel want a stable Syria. Lebanon is in crisis and would not want the Sunnis even better armed than they are. It was incredibly lucky that Libya ended to the favour of western wishes, and that was also down to the abject weakness of the Libyan military. The US funds some Syrian opposition media outlets, and no doubt would get involved with advice and arms if the situation swung towards opposition elements within Syria.

    Anyone who singularly states that involvement in Syria is down to the lack of oil is seriously misguided. Turkey, Iran, Israel and Lebanon would be forced to take active roles in managing the Sunni-Shia conflict. No one has the money, political will, public backing, state-building strategy to influence events. UN directive or not, things will have to get a lot worse before other nation states get involved and only a lunatic would now. A minority ethnic one party state does not move out of civil war cleanly.
  • Tragic news about Marie Colvin.

    A colleague for 25 years and one of the most extraordinary journalists I've ever known.

    Even though she constantly put herself in the firing line and so there was always the risk that one day this might happen, I'm shocked almost beyond words.

    The world has to do something about what is happening in Syria. It shouldn't take the death of a westerner/non-Muslim to bring it about, but perhaps this will be the catalyst for stronger action.

    If Glenn Mulcaire was a News International sleaze bag, 'MC' was the jewel in News International's crown.

    RIP, Marie.
    Terrible news. I know it sounds harsh, but to be honest I think it was always going to happen sooner or later. She must have been incredibly brave; if you don't take losing an eye as a sign to stop what do you?
  • Syria does have oil, although is said to just about becoming an importer of oil for the first time in decades. It also has large gas reserves that are seriously under-developed. Syria is a keystone state, during the civil war in Lebanon they were the opposing foreign power to Israel. With Syria being part of the Ottoman empire, the Alawites-Sunni generally had free movement across modern Syria and Lebanon: I'd imagine to Turkey as well, though I don't know that part of history. Already there is violence in the Lebanon between Alawites and Sunnis:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/hei-fi/views/robert-fisk-ethnic-conflict-spreads-over-the-mountains-6847889.html?origin=internalSearch

    Syria's army is potentially around 650,000, with Alawites being the majority of it's professional army and relatively modern in it's equipment. The Libyan army was poorly equipped and rendered weak by Gaddaffi: around 50,000 soldiers. Intervention is nothing to do with Oil, its is the fact that it is a highly complex situation with indeterminate outcomes. Both the US and Israel want a stable Syria. Lebanon is in crisis and would not want the Sunnis even better armed than they are. It was incredibly lucky that Libya ended to the favour of western wishes, and that was also down to the abject weakness of the Libyan military. The US funds some Syrian opposition media outlets, and no doubt would get involved with advice and arms if the situation swung towards opposition elements within Syria.

    Anyone who singularly states that involvement in Syria is down to the lack of oil is seriously misguided. Turkey, Iran, Israel and Lebanon would be forced to take active roles in managing the Sunni-Shia conflict. No one has the money, political will, public backing, state-building strategy to influence events. UN directive or not, things will have to get a lot worse before other nation states get involved and only a lunatic would now. A minority ethnic one party state does not move out of civil war cleanly.
    Thankyou

  • Tragic news about Marie Colvin.

    A colleague for 25 years and one of the most extraordinary journalists I've ever known.

    Even though she constantly put herself in the firing line and so there was always the risk that one day this might happen, I'm shocked almost beyond words.

    The world has to do something about what is happening in Syria. It shouldn't take the death of a westerner/non-Muslim to bring it about, but perhaps this will be the catalyst for stronger action.

    If Glenn Mulcaire was a News International sleaze bag, 'MC' was the jewel in News International's crown.

    RIP, Marie.
    Terrible news. I know it sounds harsh, but to be honest I think it was always going to happen sooner or later. She must have been incredibly brave; if you don't take losing an eye as a sign to stop what do you?
    I think it's even more outrageous for the fact the Syrian army have confirmed they targeted the building as it was a known media and journalist outpost.
  • No UN agreement that is why nothing can be done. In the modern world countries can not take military action against or in another country without UN agreement unless in self defence.


  • Anyone who singularly states that involvement in Syria is down to the lack of oil is seriously misguided.

    Im not sure anyone has said that. The fact is, you hit Syria and Russia step in. WW3 could start and Russia cut off oil supplies to the west. Do you think we invaded Lybia, Iraq or even Afghanistan to free the people ? ifso, I think its yourself that is the missguided one.

  • In answer to your question, I dont know. There are a number of instances where 'we' choose to intervene (either militarially or with humanitarian aid, or just by simply reporting it to the outside world) and where we choose not to, and I often fail to understand the reasoning behind it. Anyone who has seen Channel 4's documentary on the Killing Fields in Sri Lanka will have seen how we quietly did nothing about thousands of Tamil civilians being murdered there.
  • No UN agreement that is why nothing can be done. In the modern world countries can not take military action against or in another country without UN agreement unless in self defence.
    Iraq? Not true. Vietnam war, South Ossetia and countless others. Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter is used as legality in starting operations to stabilise and restore international peace. According to some Middle Eastern experts Turkey are the only country that can exert pressure on Assad's regime effectively. The Syrian rebels are based in Turkey, and Turkey have funded the purchase of communications for the rebels.

    It is most unlikely Turkey would send ground troops in; but if the Syrian National Council was based internally to Syria and controlled essentially a separate area then they could easily use Chapter VII without a resolution - this is a hypothetical situation. As it stands there will be no UN resolution forming a basis for UN military resolution, it is and was a UN resolution following an Arab League proposal for Assad to pass power to his deputy and for swift elections to follow. I believe this has passed now in the UN General Assembly.
  • oil

    EDIT: sorry for the one word answer, but that is the reason
    You've edited your one word answer, and called it a one word answer. I'm not sure I have to discuss with you if 'anyone' said it when you've basically said it twice. Russia is an oil state, it could not operate without foreign cash flows from it's oil exports. When the oil barrel price went below $75 in 2008, it spent a huge amount of it's cash reserves stabilising it's economy and stock market from collapse: and when I mean collapse I don't mean Wall Street collapse I mean it's stock market would not have existed as a functioning market. So your domino destruction futurology is misguided beyond a cheap pulp fiction.

    Iraq held many more lucrative Oil contracts for Russia, and it did not lead to WW3. Afghanistan had nothing to do with oil, and certainly was not motivated by the possibility of mineral exploration that occurred many years after the invasion brought some stability and access to some areas.

    I think that even in the Neo-Con dominated, febrile free market acoloyte era, Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld committed to operations that they thought they could achieve with some ease and certainly exploit afterwards via privatisation and access to free-markets. That is why they had little interest in hanging around in Afghanistan at first, as there was no economy to exploit. So in a word answers do not come near to any reality in the world. Though they may suit for puerile media outlets.



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  • edited February 2012
    'Kurdistan' and 'Water' .... whoever controls the heights where Syria, Turkey and Iraq meet, controls the Tigris and Euphrates, the lifeline/pipeline/lifeblood of the Middle East .. Iraq has 'fallen' to the west, Turkey is on the brink of 'going European', so Syria is the last hope for those countries which have a vested interest in keeping a foothold in that explosive, oil rich and potentially prosperous yet water poor part of the world, namely China and Russia, as well as France which retains strong ex-colonial links and Iran, the only REAL Arabic friend that Iran retains in the area is Syria.
    The answer to the question: Too many conflicting interests amongst the superpowers to allow for anything as trifling as humanitarian issues to be of any great significance.
  • No UN agreement that is why nothing can be done. In the modern world countries can not take military action against or in another country without UN agreement unless in self defence.
    Iraq? Not true. Vietnam war, South Ossetia and countless others. Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter is used as legality in starting operations to stabilise and restore international peace. According to some Middle Eastern experts Turkey are the only country that can exert pressure on Assad's regime effectively. The Syrian rebels are based in Turkey, and Turkey have funded the purchase of communications for the rebels.

    It is most unlikely Turkey would send ground troops in; but if the Syrian National Council was based internally to Syria and controlled essentially a separate area then they could easily use Chapter VII without a resolution - this is a hypothetical situation. As it stands there will be no UN resolution forming a basis for UN military resolution, it is and was a UN resolution following an Arab League proposal for Assad to pass power to his deputy and for swift elections to follow. I believe this has passed now in the UN General Assembly.
    Not true, in Iraq we claimed he was in breach of UN resolutions with regard to dismantling weapons of mass destruction so had a spurious UN cover. South Ossetia Russia just ignored the UN, we can not get away with that in the West, Vietnam was a war of self defence and America responded to South Vietnams appeal for help as an ally.
    So as you can see in this case we are stuck until China and Russia change their minds.
  • Its so hard to believe all that I have been hearing and seeing over the last year in Syria, and especially in the last couple of weeks.
    I was at an Amnesty rally in Trafalgar square in which I met Syrian people who have family and friends over there. They were waving the former flag of Syria which has become a symbol for the protesters. Some of them had not heard from their loved ones and were so desperate to get back to Syria to find them. They were also so desperate for intervention from the UN. Of course as what has been put above we know why the UN "peace-keeper" force and the world has not got involved.
    Firstly because of the ludicrous decision by the Russian government because they want to keep their old allies Syria. They also have a huge arms deal with the country, $1.5billion. Oh and of course they want to keep their oh so precious port in Tartus. In Russia there has been protests against this decision but the Kremlin stand by it.
    Second, probably bigger problem is our old friend Iran. Who have made it perfectly clear, especially to the USA, if anyone gets involved in helping the anti government movement then they will likely get involved themselves, of course in slightly different words. Iran are also worried about Israel, who they don't trust at all and losing Syria would be losing one of their only allies in the Arab world.
    China's stance is basically 'just let them get on with it'. Always the humanitarians.

    It looks as if a civil war will happen. The protesters have numbers but hardly any weapons. The government thanks to the Russians have a fair few weapons. Lets hope a cease fire will happen so maybe talks can be had. But by the looks of it I think both Assad (president of Syria) and the protesters feels its gone past that. Lets hope not.
  • Peter Mandelson declared after meeting the dictator that he liked Assad and he was "a decent man doing a difficult job",
  • Peter Mandelson declared after meeting the dictator that he liked Assad and he was "a decent man doing a difficult job",
    I'm sure Assads British wife feels similarly.

  • edited February 2012
    Peter Mandelson declared after meeting the dictator that he liked Assad and he was "a decent man doing a difficult job",
    I'm sure Assads British wife feels similarly.

    ..and as well as Asma Assad (nee Akhras), his son Hafaz no doubt feels the same.

    Tortured dissidents from the past decade, however, might feel differently?
  • Peter Mandelson declared after meeting the dictator that he liked Assad and he was "a decent man doing a difficult job",
    I remember Thatcher saying the same thing about that other mass murderer and torturer of his own people General Pinochet!

  • Peter Mandelson declared after meeting the dictator that he liked Assad and he was "a decent man doing a difficult job",
    I remember Thatcher saying the same thing about that other mass murderer and torturer of his own people General Pinochet!

    Disgusting and ridiculous then, disgusting and ridiculous now...what is your point?

  • I am glad we arent and dont think we should

    enough is enough - who fucking put us in charge anway - get out of Iraq, Afghan and anyhere else - what is it to do with us? Look after this country first i say and reduce the offence budget to fuckign near zero and spend it on hospitals and schools.
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