It's a book by someone with a very difficult to spell surname. It basically presents evidence why the opinion of the many can be better than that of the few. A lot of the examples were along the lines of:
1. get group of people to predict the outcome of some future event 2. To the average of those predictions
The average was generally pretty close to the actual outcome. It was an interesting read but I wasn't particularly convinced. I tried it once with the score predictions on netaddicks. The average was 100% wrong for every single game.
Cheers K. Surely would only work with large spread of numbers where you could get a mean average as with tonight crowd and not people's names or goal scores.
Then again Ibsen said "the majority is always wrong"
I was down the box office about an hour ago and they reckoned we had sold just under 5,000...so probably a new low this evening...
Also, the Carlisle coach was there...surely that's a bit early for them to arrive? What on earth are they going to do for the next five hours? Go for a walk down Makro??
Goes to show that maybe there is something in K's Wisdom of Crowds theory although having sat thru that last night I think the 15k who didn't bother showed more wisdom
Comments
1. get group of people to predict the outcome of some future event
2. To the average of those predictions
The average was generally pretty close to the actual outcome. It was an interesting read but I wasn't particularly convinced. I tried it once with the score predictions on netaddicks. The average was 100% wrong for every single game.
Warnock (7)
Pearce (6)
Jol (3)
Dowie (5)
Coleman (7)
So, using "The Wisdom of the Crowd" I can confidently predict that the first manager to go will have a 6 letter surname beginning with "K".
Then again Ibsen said "the majority is always wrong"
That's exactly what my missus tells me Henry....
Also, the Carlisle coach was there...surely that's a bit early for them to arrive? What on earth are they going to do for the next five hours? Go for a walk down Makro??
Looking forward to the reviews from the real fans who were there!
Pretty impressive.
Guess we all get AFKA's prize
:-))
Tik a boo son, as Andy Gray would say.
I'm proud as punch !!