I had some spare time on my hands so decided to look at the last 10years for this league and it makes good reading (as long as we get the points at yeovil to stay top).
of the last 11 seasons, every team that was top at new year (1-3 of january) went on to gain promotion apart from 2001/2 when stoke lost out all together even through play off route. Each of the other years saw the team top at new year come either 2nd in leeds case in 2009/10 or 1st on every other occassion.
Also in 7 of the 11 years the two teams in the top 2 at new year gained promotion come the end of the season, most of the time remaining the top 2 come may, but those who did drop out gained promotion via play offs. However in 2001/2, bristol city, 2005/6 - swansea, 2006/7 oldham, 2008/9-mk dons ----were all in 2nd come new year but did not gain promotion from 2nd place or the play offs. Invariably also in each of the seasons, those in the top6/7 come new year remained there come the end of the season, with a few interchanges of positions, apart from 2001/2 when cardiff were down in 10th at new year and last year when peterborough were down in 11th at new year but rose up and mk dons dropped to 8th.
heres how it went:
2000/1 - Millwall top at new year (48pts) - champions 93 points (top 2 promoted)
2001/2 - Stoke top at new year (49pts) - finished 5th 80pts, brighton champions 90pts (neither of top 2 promoted)
2002/3 - Wigan top at new year (59pts) - champions 100pts (top 2 promoted)
2003/4 - Plymouth top at new year (52pts)- champions 90pts (top 2promoted)
2004/5 - Luton top at new year (53pts) - champions 98pts (top 2 promoted)
2005/6 - Southend top at new year (46pts) - champions 82pts (2nd place NOT promoted)
2006/7 - Scunthorpe top at new year (49pts) - champions 91pts (2nd place NOT promoted)
2007/8 - Swansea top at new year (44pts)- champions 92pts (2nd place promoted)
2008/9 - Leicester top at new year (51pts) - champions 96pts (2nd place NOT promoted)
2009/10 - Leeds top at new year (56pts) - 2nd place with 86pts (Norwich were 2nd (48pts) and become champions 95pts)
2010/11 - Brighton top at new year (40pts) - champions 95pts (2nd place promoted)
It is also interesting that on each of the occassions until the 2007/8 season up to 26 games had been played by the half way stage (hence the high pointsts tallys), there was 22 games played in 2007/8 and only 21 by brighton in 2010/11.
If we win out next two games we will have 54 points which will put us above all of the teams top at new year apart from wigan and leeds, and we have played 3 fewer games than most of them had at that stage (except the last few years).
It also shows us we need around 45points to be sure of being champions.an average of 2 per game as SCP has constantly stated
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