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Are we this thick?

From the BBC;

Varney believes that prior to the club's takeover five months ago finances were so perilous the club would have been relegated.

He told BBC Radio Kent: "There would have been a 10-point deduction."

"We
wouldn't have stayed up, we wouldn't have got [Bradley]
Wright-Phillips, players would have left and we would be in League Two."

"People might get their calculators out, take 10-points off and say 'We would have been alright' but we wouldn't."



Two things strike me.

1. Who among us would need a calculator to deduct 10 from 59?

2. 49 points would have seen us 20th and safe.


Obviously point 2 would not have been true without BWP in the team, but still, calculators...10 points...I mean really.




(Yes, this is tongue in cheek.)

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Comments

  • Well we might of stayed up because we would not have been taken over and would not of sack Parky who had us in a good place, in fact we could have gone up, who knows.

     

    Also amazing i seemed to have read all over forums people saying it wont happen things are not that bad , how wrong were they

  • Would have been difficult to actually go up with a 10 point deduction, but your second point is most valid.
  • Yes but 49 points is calculated with 20/20 hindsight. It is also the case that BWP scored some crucial goals especially in the first five games. Do the maths without the winning goals BWP scored.
  • Yes, Bing, which is what was noted in the original post.
    We would then need to calculate the maths supposing other players scored some, or possibly even more, of the 8 goals BWP scored.
  • It's not just BWP though. Who else might have jumped ship if we went into admin? And who could we have brought in? I take his point and suspect the calculator reference was probably tongue-in-cheek.
  • Yes, "we" are.
  • Yes, Bing, which is what was noted in the original post.
    We would then need to calculate the maths supposing other players scored some, or possibly even more, of the 8 goals BWP scored.


    I don't believe you are quoting the wholecstory.
    10 points deducted, players would have left, moralecdown etc etc. Makes perfect sense.
  • Yes, Bing, which is what was noted in the original post.
    We would then need to calculate the maths supposing other players scored some, or possibly even more, of the 8 goals BWP scored.


    I don't believe you are quoting the wholecstory.
    10 points deducted, players would have left, moralecdown etc etc. Makes perfect sense.
    Please see the last two lines of my original post!
  • Like most topics posted on here you can argue this to the cows come home but in reality I think PV wasn't a million miles off in his assessment.
  • Like most topics posted on here you can argue this to the cows come home but in reality I think PV wasn't a million miles off in his assessment.
    Well I would have thought there should be no argument that Charlton fans DONT need a calculator to deduct 10 from 59, but what do I know?
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  • This is about as much use as speculating about what Hendrix or Lennon would've done had they lived. It didn't happen - we are where we are.

    Roll on the new season when we can talk about football.
  • edited June 2011
    Yes, Bing, which is what was noted in the original post.
    We would then need to calculate the maths supposing other players scored some, or possibly even more, of the 8 goals BWP scored.
    I don't believe you are quoting the wholecstory. 10 points deducted, players would have left, moralecdown etc etc. Makes perfect sense.
    Please see the last two lines of my original post!
    OK so PV was just using a figure of speech to make a point. That's it. It certainly worked because you have created a thread about it! Indeed most people have, I think taken the message on board of putting into context the season before and after the takeover and give those like us in the cheap seats an insight into what was the financial reality of our situation. He was also, I believe, sending a message from him to TJ and MS, thanking them personally and publically for saving the club from a pretty dire
  • ??
    Tongue-in-cheek is a phrase used as a figure of speech to imply that a statement or other production is humorously intended and it should not be taken at face value.
  • ??
    Tongue-in-cheek is a phrase used as a figure of speech to imply that a statement or other production is humorously intended and it should not be taken at face value.
    So why are you getting so narky then mate? Chill out.
  • The calculator reference was clearly used to indicate the outlook from a purely mathematical / stats point of view whereas the reality was that other factors would have comer into play. Not sure what this thread is all about really but i accept there isn't much else to talk about.
  • The calculator reference was clearly used to indicate the outlook from a purely mathematical / stats point of view whereas the reality was that other factors would have comer into play. Not sure what this thread is all about really but i accept there isn't much else to talk about.

    Yup!
  • It's all hypothetical. The club was sold in a 'fire sale' to prevent administration and to get the previous owners out of a very tight financial spot.

    I haven't heard the BBC Varney interview. Is he trying to justify the sale to Slater and Co.?

    Within reason (I wouldn't want, for example, Colonel Ghadaffi to own the club) I don't care who owns CAFC so long as he/she/they have football and the overall success and well being of Charlton Athletic F C in  a football context as their main raison d'etre. 

  • ??
    Tongue-in-cheek is a phrase used as a figure of speech to imply that a statement or other production is humorously intended and it should not be taken at face value.
    Erm...and?
  • I think his point was that with the psychological side of losing 10 points it would have been enough to send us down. But still wow, had no idea it was that close
  • I suspect the reality is that 50plus of the 92 teams in the UK sail close to administration these days with restricted credit lines from the banks.
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  • I don't agree with the assessment. None (or very few) of the players would have left. We pay them more than anyone else would have done and for that reason they wouldn't have been willing to leave. If we had to cover the wages of Racon and Semedo, for example, why would we pay them off and then let them leave. The chances of them getting a better deal in January with a potential transfer fee than they would get in the summer make it unlikely that they would have agreed to go at all. You only sell your players to avoid Administration, once you are in it you are better to knock all the debts and come out the other side with the players registrations (the assetts) still intact. That way you can sell them or release them at you leisure.

    I am also convinced that Parkinson would have managed a shed load more points than the 26 that were achieved in the 26 games after the take over happened. I'm including Parkinson's last two games as there is no doubt, in my mind, that the pressure on him to play delightful football to keep his job pushed him into the disater that was Swindon at home.

    You could take 12 points on our final tally and still have stayed up.

    I'm sorry, but I think this is a PR exercise to take the pressure off the new board now that it is apparent that they, shall we say, confused the fans with personal letters to all season ticket holders indicating a very different kind of signifncant investment than we are now seeing. If those letters had said we've saved the club and we are going to 'hope' that we can climb out of this division with the same level of resources that have seen us fail for the last two seasons please give us your money, I think the fans might have been a little less keen to do so.

    This is, of course, after Richard Murray had personally guaranteed the finances for the whole season. So is Peter Varney calling Richard Murray a liar? Or were his calculations so far off that in the three months from the take over he managed to over spend to the point of Administration?

    I don't doubt that we were in some trouble, but I just find it a little difficult to believe it was quite as bad is it is now being suggested.

    Also, bearing in mind that the new board took on all the current debts, if Administration was so close why didn't they allow it to happen and pick up the club for a tenth of the debts and set out to stay up this season and start again next season debt free?

  • avoiding administration - while maintaing the albeit restructured debts to former directors, something a club like southampton doesn't have (I assume) :)
  • I don't agree with the assessment. None (or very few) of the players would have left. We pay them more than anyone else would have done and for that reason they wouldn't have been willing to leave. If we had to cover the wages of Racon and Semedo, for example, why would we pay them off and then let them leave. The chances of them getting a better deal in January with a potential transfer fee than they would get in the summer make it unlikely that they would have agreed to go at all. You only sell your players to avoid Administration, once you are in it you are better to knock all the debts and come out the other side with the players registrations (the assetts) still intact. That way you can sell them or release them at you leisure.

    I am also convinced that Parkinson would have managed a shed load more points than the 26 that were achieved in the 26 games after the take over happened. I'm including Parkinson's last two games as there is no doubt, in my mind, that the pressure on him to play delightful football to keep his job pushed him into the disater that was Swindon at home.

    You could take 12 points on our final tally and still have stayed up.

    I'm sorry, but I think this is a PR exercise to take the pressure off the new board now that it is apparent that they, shall we say, confused the fans with personal letters to all season ticket holders indicating a very different kind of signifncant investment than we are now seeing. If those letters had said we've saved the club and we are going to 'hope' that we can climb out of this division with the same level of resources that have seen us fail for the last two seasons please give us your money, I think the fans might have been a little less keen to do so.

    This is, of course, after Richard Murray had personally guaranteed the finances for the whole season. So is Peter Varney calling Richard Murray a liar? Or were his calculations so far off that in the three months from the take over he managed to over spend to the point of Administration?

    I don't doubt that we were in some trouble, but I just find it a little difficult to believe it was quite as bad is it is now being suggested.

    Also, bearing in mind that the new board took on all the current debts, if Administration was so close why didn't they allow it to happen and pick up the club for a tenth of the debts and set out to stay up this season and start again next season debt free?

    excellent final point 
  • You have to be at least high, and probably drunk to suggest we would have stayed up after administration last season
  • I'd even argue that had Slater et.al. picked up the club with no debts for 10% of the current liabilities they would have had more money to spend in January and we could well have signed BWP and others and sill had more money available now. I don't, personally, think we could have won any fewer points after Powell came in so I stand by my suggestion that administration would have left us better off now than we are, and in the same division.

    The reason for avoiding administration was the potential for promotion last season, and we all know how that turned out.

  • The reason for avoiding administration was the potential for promotion last season, and we all know how that turned out.

    Surely the reason was that after re-structuring, the vast majority of debt was internal or pseudo-internal and so the individuals concerned, particularly Richard Murray were adamant that we would not go into administration unless it was forced upon us so that the investments of board members and previous board members were not wiped out overnight.
  • an't understand all the fuss. 59 minus 10 would have seen us in the play-offs on 76 points, yeah?
  • We all know that it was a make or break season until the take over - we should all be grateful for the fact that it wasn't. I don't think we would have even come close to being relegated had the takeover not happened - the play offs would have been the most likely and if we failed to get up in those- which would have been a fair possibility, the anxiety levels would now be pretty high right now. The truth is sufficient without the need for PV to exagerate..
  • It's not a question of calling Richard Murray a liar. Richard would have had every intention of keeping the club afloat, but that doesn't mean he could have done it in practice. It was very clear in late 2010 that we were running out of money to pay the bills.

    Presumably if the new owners had allowed the business to go into administration they would, apart from the ten point deduction, have lost control, at least temporarily, as well as shafted the previius major shareholders, including Murray. 

    But in any case I doubt if the bank behind the north stand mortgage would have allowed the takeover to proceed on that basis and they would no doubt have a say in terms of the loan covenants, i.e. they could call in the loan if they don't like the look of the deal.

  • If the club were teetering on the brink of administration why did the previous owners pay fees for a number of players - I believe Benno, Abbott and Francis - a few months before the takeover - were they not of sound mind?  Why would (mostly) internal debt trigger administration?  My calculator can't add this up.
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