Fair play to the SNP - they appear to have been elected for just getting on with it and doing a decent job. As to whether the people of Scotland decide to go it alone...that may be a different matter entirely.
But you never know...
Although the Lib-Dems were almost wiped out last night - it is Labour that should be fearing Scottish independence the most. As it stands they were really the big losers last night - their power base in Scotland has just evaporated, leaving them very vulnerable indeed...
It will certainly be interesting. The SNP will canvas for Scottish independence and basically it's what they are all about as a political party. Should a referendum fail in supporting independence for Scotland I think the credibility of Salmond and the SNP will be seriously in question. If that happens and the SNP vote evaporates then only winner will be Labour. On the whole last night Labour did very well nationally even taking into consideration the losses in Scotland.
Westminster will decide whether there is a referendum on Scottish independence not Holyrood. I think its fair to say the Conservatives will not be giving that referendum.
Really ! Cameron today said that in any referendum he would be supporting the view that keeps the kingdom united with very fibre in his body. Very brave Westminster government to deny the Scots that vote.
I'm sure the PM would vote no in such a referendum. But, unlike the AV referendum, the result would not be clear & as such it would be high risk to call a referendum on Scottish Independence. Plus the AV referendum seems beneficial to the Conservatives, it kept the LibDems onside & if it is a no vote (as seems likely), may have knocked PR back a few years. Blocking the Scottish referendum may help the SNP and damage Scottish Labour.
Sctoland would vote for independence tomorrow if they had the chance. Actually being able to govern the country without it being propped up by England (and, more specifically, London) is a different story. The usual refrain from the Scots is to go on about the oil wealth in the North Sea. Last I looked, however, none of the oil companies drilling there were Scottish - so where else is their revenue going to come from? Without the financial support of the English they'd quickly end up just like the Irish - flat broke, being propped up by the EU (ironically including England).
Until someone finds a way to monetise rain, cold winds and clogged arteries, Scottish independence is a pipe dream
spot on regarding how Scottish independence would play out and how much UK money would it take to finance and establish an independent Scotland to start with?
Not convinced it will be so clear cut Leroy, it was close last time (1970's). There is evidence to suggest that even some SNP voters don't want independence but vote SNP as they are a left of centre party offering a slightly different way of dealing with the present economic situation.
Re "Until someone finds a way to monetise rain, cold winds and clogged arteries"
They've already done one of the three, wind farms.
North Sea oil revenues should rise considerably this year and should remain high for a while longer, there are a number of new oil fields due to go into production over the next few years. Unfortunately Osborne saw this coming and has ramped by taxes on NS oil and gas revenues.
On the other hand the Scots can have RBS back if they want to go independent.
Scots have always voted against a fully independent Scotland. The SNP may have won a landslide here but Alex Salmond knows he has to pick his moment for an Independence vote. Many of those swing voters will not vote SNP if it means independence. Scots know they are better off in a United Kingdom however nationalistic ("anti-English") they like to look.
I'm not so sure any independence vote would produce a positive result for the SNP. As SHG said, if the SNP gamble on a referendum and lose, it would call their very existence into question...
As to the Scotland/tax/West Lothian question....when the oil runs they are buggered, but there's a little way to go before that happens. It has also been said that if the sweaties get independence, both them and England + whoever is left of the UK may have to reapply for membership of the EU. If that happens, England would probably vote no if things carry on as they are at the moment!
You've missed the point. They don't own the rights to drill in the North Sea. The UK does. Good luck to any sweaties who think they automatically inherit the rights to drill there if they declare themselves independent.
Talk to any sweaty and they're still convinced that they own it and it gives them the right to be subsidised by English taxpayers, Leroy!
Given what you say, it might be big LOLs if they get independence then realise that they will have rely on sales of tartan and shortbread to fund their health service...the Tunnocks wafer export surplus might just do it though.
Yep, that's the thing bigstemarra - yhey'll have a f***ing shock coming to them if the SNP tries to get a 'yes' vote to independence without giving them all the facts on 'their' oil.
I say let the jocks have their Independence and waych them go the same way as the Irish.............stoney broke.
what many of our sweaty friends fail to realise is that WE, the ENGLISH, are supporting their NHS (we pay pescription charges, they don't) - lets ee how fay they get without that money !!!!!!!!!!!
Scotland should become independent if that's what the Scots want. Oil has little to do with it. The Lib Dems paid the price for giving away their basic beliefs to link up with the Tories. I believevthis is a huge message to all parties and probably a big boon to Labour.........as much as Labour stuff up people don't want Conservative givernment
Spot on Leroy, the SNP have long gone on about an independant Scotland "within the EU", ie - propped up by Brussels rather than Westminster - and as a different country who is to say they would be accepted as a member in the current economic climate? Take away the subsidies and lets see how popular the SNP are with the people then.
i find it al a tad sad really. Labour left another huge door open with devalution,one week ago no pundit saw the SNP doing so well so i think its daft to dissmiss an independant Scotland ? i think it will come. I think it may benfit the England if it does. HMG will now give the Scots more and more and who ends up paying for kids in Scotland to go to Uni for free? or picks up their chemists bills etc ? we do the tax payers in England.
As for Independnace well how are the Scots going to pay for defence ? and future cuts would hopefully therefore be to Scotish Regiments. Fastlane sub base moved back to Pompey, etc etc etc.
How will they pay for Embassies all over the World ? cant be as part of the UK ?
It will be sad to see them go. Like an old mate who is emigrating-- good luck to him/them etc but im not paying for his air fare or his new house --- you want it you pay for it.
PS as for no one wanting a Tory Government why were they the biggest single party ? another 13 years of a Labour Government and there wont be any English left if what was once called England and no UK----- good luck with voting for that.
Having just spent a month in Scotland I have figured out the following.
Scotland would like the North Sea Oil to themselves If Scotland were to become independant there would be a huge outcry from Shetland, who would then be equally, if not more motivated to become independant from Scotland.
Shetland already believe they are abandoned from the Scots anyway.
Scotland know they are worse off without us. They just don't like admitting it.
GH "picks up their chemists bills etc ? we do the tax payers in England."
Not true, they merely spend their health budget differently. The money they spend on free prescriptions for all, comes from money we in England spend, from memory, on quicker access to heart / cancer experts.
"As for Independnace well how are the Scots going to pay for defence ?"
They won't, the SNP propose cutting defence significantly.
"Fastlane sub base moved back to Pompey, etc etc etc"
It won't the location is chosen for it's unique geography, a lot of Glaswegians may be glad to get rid of this potential target from their doorstep, as for where it would go, well that's decision for Washington.
"they spend their money differantly" please do tell where that money comes form ? budgets set in westminster where the majority --- the VAST majority comes from England. Cut the amount given to Scotland by 95% and give the tax payers in Endland money off ! Scotland CAN NOT give free uni or chemist bills with out every one in England paying for it-- dont give me that old coblers they spend their money differantly---- if they didnt have it they couldnt do it !
as for fastlane there are two sub bases in UK thats one. Why would we pay for that one we have one in England. and it was only put up there fro subs to reach the North Sea in the cold war.
If they want a budget let them have it----- not at the tax payers of Englands expence----- enough old twaddle they want -- let them have it.
Indendance bollox a tiny bit of fedrule(sic) Europe
There's quite alot of rubbish spouted on this thread.
For a start England do not "bankroll" Scotland. Outside of the City of London the entire UK is a net beneficciary. Areas of mid & northern England are, under this system, "bankrolled" by Scotland. An independent Scotland would not have to subsidise these parts of England anymore, the net-effect is that under the current tax system, revenues for Scotland would remain fairly unchanged (actually, they may even rise slightly in the current climate due to the v.high unemployment levels in Wales, mid & northern England, which is also "subsidised" by Scotland).
Secondly, North Sea Oil would certainly revert to Scottish ownership. It is only currently owned by the UK as part of British terratorial waters. The waters around Scotland would obviously become Scottish, thus bringing with them the natural reserves beneath. Scotland may choose to to do an exploitation deal with the remnants of the UK but that would be a Scottish decision. For an interesting report on the potential of Scotland's economic power thanks to North Sea Oil see the below, it's also important to remember that whilst there has been 30 years since the report in question was written, the price of oil has also increased expotentially : http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-britain/how-black-gold-was-hijacked-north-sea-oil-and-the-betrayal-of-scotland-518697.html
Thirdly, I would imagine that Scotland would fund the areas of public spending (Uni, NHS etc) from the reduction in UK bureaucracy & military spending (the UK is the second or third highest spender in terms of military outlay) - Scotland would spend vastly less than this, however it may need a sizeable military force for the impending conflict with Shetland.
I personally am for the right of the Scottish people to vote, but against independence. I think that while Scotland, despite what has been written in this thread, could stand on it's feet economically, where would it's place be in the world ? What would be it's voice on a world stage ? The UK have made some mistakes in it's foreign policy over the last decade, but at least people still notice our mistakes. Scotland would be the equivalent of Belgium or Norway ploitically. Sure it's great to be a member of the EU or NATO, but when you speak who listens ? Whilst the UK may not have her vast empire and wealth - our voice is still heard.
I also think (and I believe some of the posts above forget this) that Scotland has played a huge part in the formation and maintenance of the UK, independance would wash away all that good work and consign to history the efforts of thousands.
Thirdly, whilst Scotland would be out of the UK, that country would still be by far it's biggest trading partner. A Scotland out of the UK would still be affected by everything the UK did, but no longer able to influence those decisions.
Ultimately, I think that Scotland could "do" independence, however I think that it would be wrong and to be fair most Scots don't want it. Those that do are generally searching for some romantic version of freedom (possibly inspired by too many viewings of Braveheart!) which no longer exists.
Good points SE9, the only one I am not sure on is the oil. Theoretically UK money got it out of the ground in the first place, what right would they have to keep all the revenue now it is flowing?
Well if Scotland became independent then anything within her soverign terratorial boundries would belong to her. For example India has vast railway and transport infrastructure which is aiding it's economic boom. This is largely as a result of British investment a hundred or so years ago, however when India became independent, any resource on land or sea in the Indian territory became an asset of the Indian state, the same would be true for North Sea Oil. Maybe there would be some sort of compensation package, maybe Scotland would sell oil to the rest of the UK at favourable rates for x years, but ultimately the UK would have as much claim to North Sea as they would to Edinburgh castle.
Plus, there is no way the UK would ever infringe another countries sovereignty in the pursuit of oil, is there ?
Comments
Fair play to the SNP - they appear to have been elected for just getting on with it and doing a decent job. As to whether the people of Scotland decide to go it alone...that may be a different matter entirely.
But you never know...
Although the Lib-Dems were almost wiped out last night - it is Labour that should be fearing Scottish independence the most. As it stands they were really the big losers last night - their power base in Scotland has just evaporated, leaving them very vulnerable indeed...
The tories must be laughing their tits off!
Until someone finds a way to monetise rain, cold winds and clogged arteries, Scottish independence is a pipe dream
North Sea oil revenues should rise considerably this year and should remain high for a while longer, there are a number of new oil fields due to go into production over the next few years. Unfortunately Osborne saw this coming and has ramped by taxes on NS oil and gas revenues.
On the other hand the Scots can have RBS back if they want to go independent.
I'm not so sure any independence vote would produce a positive result for the SNP. As SHG said, if the SNP gamble on a referendum and lose, it would call their very existence into question...
As to the Scotland/tax/West Lothian question....when the oil runs they are buggered, but there's a little way to go before that happens. It has also been said that if the sweaties get independence, both them and England + whoever is left of the UK may have to reapply for membership of the EU. If that happens, England would probably vote no if things carry on as they are at the moment!
Talk to any sweaty and they're still convinced that they own it and it gives them the right to be subsidised by English taxpayers, Leroy!
Given what you say, it might be big LOLs if they get independence then realise that they will have rely on sales of tartan and shortbread to fund their health service...the Tunnocks wafer export surplus might just do it though.
I say let the jocks have their Independence and waych them go the same way as the Irish.............stoney broke.
what many of our sweaty friends fail to realise is that WE, the ENGLISH, are supporting their NHS (we pay pescription charges, they don't) - lets ee how fay they get without that money !!!!!!!!!!!
The Lib Dems paid the price for giving away their basic beliefs to link up with the Tories. I believevthis is a huge message to all parties and probably a big boon to Labour.........as much as Labour stuff up people don't want Conservative givernment
i find it al a tad sad really. Labour left another huge door open with devalution,one week ago no pundit saw the SNP doing so well so i think its daft to dissmiss an independant Scotland ? i think it will come. I think it may benfit the England if it does. HMG will now give the Scots more and more and who ends up paying for kids in Scotland to go to Uni for free? or picks up their chemists bills etc ? we do the tax payers in England.
As for Independnace well how are the Scots going to pay for defence ? and future cuts would hopefully therefore be to Scotish Regiments. Fastlane sub base moved back to Pompey, etc etc etc.
How will they pay for Embassies all over the World ? cant be as part of the UK ?
It will be sad to see them go. Like an old mate who is emigrating-- good luck to him/them etc but im not paying for his air fare or his new house --- you want it you pay for it.
PS as for no one wanting a Tory Government why were they the biggest single party ? another 13 years of a Labour Government and there wont be any English left if what was once called England and no UK----- good luck with voting for that.
Having just spent a month in Scotland I have figured out the following.
Scotland would like the North Sea Oil to themselves
If Scotland were to become independant there would be a huge outcry from Shetland, who would then be equally, if not more motivated to become independant from Scotland.
Shetland already believe they are abandoned from the Scots anyway.
Scotland know they are worse off without us. They just don't like admitting it.
"As for Independnace well how are the Scots going to pay for defence ?"
They won't, the SNP propose cutting defence significantly.
"Fastlane sub base moved back to Pompey, etc etc etc"
It won't the location is chosen for it's unique geography, a lot of Glaswegians may be glad to get rid of this potential target from their doorstep, as for where it would go, well that's decision for Washington.
"they spend their money differantly" please do tell where that money comes form ? budgets set in westminster where the majority --- the VAST majority comes from England. Cut the amount given to Scotland by 95% and give the tax payers in Endland money off ! Scotland CAN NOT give free uni or chemist bills with out every one in England paying for it-- dont give me that old coblers they spend their money differantly---- if they didnt have it they couldnt do it !
as for fastlane there are two sub bases in UK thats one. Why would we pay for that one we have one in England. and it was only put up there fro subs to reach the North Sea in the cold war.
If they want a budget let them have it----- not at the tax payers of Englands expence----- enough old twaddle they want -- let them have it.
Indendance bollox a tiny bit of fedrule(sic) Europe
The SNP are committed to holding a referendum on idependence, or at least they promised they would if they won the election.
And? Your point is?
Thanks, we know that BFR. It will be a NO, we know that too.
For a start England do not "bankroll" Scotland. Outside of the City of London the entire UK is a net beneficciary. Areas of mid & northern England are, under this system, "bankrolled" by Scotland. An independent Scotland would not have to subsidise these parts of England anymore, the net-effect is that under the current tax system, revenues for Scotland would remain fairly unchanged (actually, they may even rise slightly in the current climate due to the v.high unemployment levels in Wales, mid & northern England, which is also "subsidised" by Scotland).
Secondly, North Sea Oil would certainly revert to Scottish ownership. It is only currently owned by the UK as part of British terratorial waters. The waters around Scotland would obviously become Scottish, thus bringing with them the natural reserves beneath. Scotland may choose to to do an exploitation deal with the remnants of the UK but that would be a Scottish decision. For an interesting report on the potential of Scotland's economic power thanks to North Sea Oil see the below, it's also important to remember that whilst there has been 30 years since the report in question was written, the price of oil has also increased expotentially :
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-britain/how-black-gold-was-hijacked-north-sea-oil-and-the-betrayal-of-scotland-518697.html
Thirdly, I would imagine that Scotland would fund the areas of public spending (Uni, NHS etc) from the reduction in UK bureaucracy & military spending (the UK is the second or third highest spender in terms of military outlay) - Scotland would spend vastly less than this, however it may need a sizeable military force for the impending conflict with Shetland.
I personally am for the right of the Scottish people to vote, but against independence. I think that while Scotland, despite what has been written in this thread, could stand on it's feet economically, where would it's place be in the world ? What would be it's voice on a world stage ? The UK have made some mistakes in it's foreign policy over the last decade, but at least people still notice our mistakes. Scotland would be the equivalent of Belgium or Norway ploitically. Sure it's great to be a member of the EU or NATO, but when you speak who listens ? Whilst the UK may not have her vast empire and wealth - our voice is still heard.
I also think (and I believe some of the posts above forget this) that Scotland has played a huge part in the formation and maintenance of the UK, independance would wash away all that good work and consign to history the efforts of thousands.
Thirdly, whilst Scotland would be out of the UK, that country would still be by far it's biggest trading partner. A Scotland out of the UK would still be affected by everything the UK did, but no longer able to influence those decisions.
Ultimately, I think that Scotland could "do" independence, however I think that it would be wrong and to be fair most Scots don't want it. Those that do are generally searching for some romantic version of freedom (possibly inspired by too many viewings of Braveheart!) which no longer exists.
Plus, there is no way the UK would ever infringe another countries sovereignty in the pursuit of oil, is there ?