So, how is it all going to unfold?
Here are the circumstances:
Currently:
POSITION NAME GF GA GD PTS
2nd Leeds 75 43 +32 83
3rd Millwall 73 42 +31 82
4th Swindon 71 54 +17 82
5th Charlton 69 48 +21 81
6th Huddersfield 81 54 +27 80
Remaining fixtures:
LEEDS v Bristol Rovers
MILLWALL v SWINDON
Oldham v CHARLTON
Exeter v HUDDERSFIELD
Now it's all up for grabs but most of the teams will be looking out for other results.
(NB There are some fairly unlikely scenarios here...)
For Charlton:
If Charlton lose - we're 5th or 6th and therefore at home in the first leg of the Playoffs.
If Charlton draw, we're at home in the first leg unless Huddersfield draw or lose PLUS Swindon lose (or Millwall lose with a 10 goal swing to Charlton. :-D)
If Charlton win, we're promoted if Leeds lose and Swindon draw with Millwall. Otherwise we're 3rd or 4th and therefore AWAY in the first leg as we must go above either Swindon or Millwall, plus Huddersfield can't catch us. (Also, we can afford a Leeds draw if we win by 11 goals [:-D])
For all the rest:
Leeds:
If they win, they're up.
If they draw, they are up if Millwall and Swindon draw (and Charlton fail to win by at least 11 goals.) Otherwise, they are 3rd or 4th and have an away leg first.
If they lose, they only go up if Charlton and Huddersfield fail to win, Millwall draw with Swindon and Leeds' loss is by only one goal AND Millwall score no more than one goal more than them on Saturday. Otherwise they are 3rd or 4th unless Charlton and Huddersfield both win and Millwall or Swindon do not draw (or they do draw and Millwall score 2 more than Leeds on Saturday) in which case they are 5th.
Millwall:
If they Win, they go up if Leeds draw or lose, otherwise 3rd place.
If they draw, they go up if a) Leeds lose by 2 or more OR b) Leeds lose and Millwall score two goals more than Leeds (eg Millwall draw 3-3 and Leeds lose 1-2) PLUS Charlton fail to win AND Huddersfield fail to win by 4 goals or more.
If they lose, they are 4th unless Charlton and/or Huddersfield win in which case they are 5th or 6th and therefore at home in the first leg.
Swindon:
If they win, they are up if Leeds fail to win, otherwise they are 3rd.
If they draw, they are 4th if Charlton and Huddersfield fail to win, otherwise they are 5th or 6th.
If they lose, they only get 4th if Huddersfield fail to win and Charlton lose.
Huddersfield:
If they win, they only go up automatically if they win by 4 or more goals, Leeds lose and everyone else fails to win. (Millwall in theory could still foil Huddersfield here by drawing and scoring 8 more goals than Huddersfield on Saturday). Otherwise they are 5th or 6th unless a) Leeds lose with a 5 goal swing towards Huddersfield. Or
b) Charlton fail to win. Or
c) Millwall and Swindo draw and Huddersfield win by 4 or more.
If they draw or lose,
They can't reach higher than 5th
See. Simple.
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Comments
That's Leeds and Millwall to win.
Now, if we win ... we finish 4th.
If we draw, we finish 4th (or 5th if Huddersfield win).
If we lose, we finish 6th (or 5th if Huddersfield lose).
Much more simple.
Who'd have thought it?
;-)
All the teams in the premiership and championship get
relegated for financial irregularities and Charlton get a champions league spot.
We take our chance with aplomb and bring home the European Cup or whatever it's called in a blaze if glory.
I grant you, Huddersfield getting automatic promotion is unlikely, but at least it's believable and a possibility worth considering.
Because it probably won't happen.
Cheer up mate.
Charlton will win
Millwall and Swindon will draw
Huddersfield will win
We finish 3rd
Swindon in the play offs
I cant predict any further.
leeds, swindon and millwall all draw
Charlton win,
As much as I hate them, Millwall are not an average side. We're kidding ourselves if we think they are anything other than a good League 1 side. End of the day we only get 1 point off them (and they had 10 men for over half of 1 game), plus they beat Leeds twice and Norwich at home.........
The bookies would disagree with you. 10/11 Home win 12/5 draw 9/4 away win.
Still, what do they know?
Second place team in the Premier or Championship would be odds-on to finish the job in the last game, but it wouldn't be a major surprise if Leeds failed to win.
Millwall and Swindon could go either way, and God knows what we'll do.
As to the suggestion of only about considering the scenario that Leeds and Millwall win ... well that'd be a pointless restriction because it probably won't happen.
I think you are crazy rose tinted if you do so Oggy not allowed to answer
Its unlikely that we will. But we can.
As to the suggestion of only about considering the scenario that Leeds and Millwall win ... well that'd be a pointless restriction because it probably won't happen.[/quote]
Why not? William Hill will give you 7/1 on a Bristol Rovers win.
i will re phrase it WSS does anyone think we will finish 2nd
me for 1 not a cat in hells chance
As to the suggestion of only about considering the scenario that Leeds and Millwall win ... well that'd be a pointless restriction because it probably won't happen.[/quote]Why not? William Hill will give you 7/1 on a Bristol Rovers win.[/quote]I don't rely on Mr Hill myself but I checked with him anyway and as it happens he thinks that your scenario probably won't happen - his odds are 29/21 against it.[/quote]
That's because there are eight other combinations of possible outcomes. Based on the odds given, no other combination is more likely than Leeds and Millwall to win. Your odds of 29/21 simply means that it is (slightly) more likely that any one of the other eight will happen rather than the two home wins. But the two home wins remain the most likely scenario.
Let's live in hope anyway. This is football, not maths.
What?! Not only do we have a better goal difference than them anyway meaning your '2 goals more' theory is wrong, but they also have a point more than us, so unless a win at Oldham gets us 4 points you are well off mate.
Anyway i fully expect Leeds to win but can see the Millwall game petering out to a draw once they know Leeds are home and dry, so a win for us at Oldham will see us finish 3rd. Think Huddersfield will have it tough going at Exeter who are fairly good at home and need a win to stay up. My prediction:
2 - Leeds
3 - Us
4 - Millwall
5 - Swindon
6 - Huddersfield