Thats the trouble with stastics, can look a little bit mad.
We got an impact score of -0,8 but most of us would have thought an away draw against league leaders, who have not drop a point at home, would have been a great result.
Stats are better with at the end of the season with a large amount of hindsight.
this weekend's results, especially Leeds' defeat and Colchester's victory courtesy of 'Super Kev' (TM) means our "chance" of winning the league has gone up 2% and our chance of promotion has remained static.
However we have now been leapfrogged by Colchester:
I'm using this site after every game to see how the percentages chance and I find it really interesting (even though I know all the numbers will send most people to sleep...).
RPI: Ratings Percentage Index rank among all team in the league. "The Rating Percentage Index, commonly known as the RPI, is a quantity used to rank sports teams based upon a team's wins and losses and its strength of schedule."
Strength: Expected winning percentage the weighted method uses when simulating games. To calculate we start with (depending on the league) either the current winning percentage or a fancier formula based on goals delta . Then the percentage is regressed towards the mean, a fancy way of saying nudged back towards .500, a lot early in the season and less and less as the season progresses.
Basically I think RPI takes into account the difficulty of each team's run in and ranks them? That might be completely wrong. It's used a lot in American sport so someone familiar with that might know exactly.
Strength is a measure of how good each team is in the league based on their position and their W-D-L record, it helps weight the results because of course in a game 1st vs 24th, there isn't a 33% chance of each outcome.
Comments
We got an impact score of -0,8 but most of us would have thought an away draw against league leaders, who have not drop a point at home, would have been a great result.
Stats are better with at the end of the season with a large amount of hindsight.
;-)
But what does it prove ....... apart from speculation?
It will all change again next week.
However we have now been leapfrogged by Colchester:
Leeds title/promotion "odds"
41% (-9%) ... 72% (-7%)
Colchester title/promotion "odds"
23% ( 7%) ... 57% (7%)
Charlton title/promotion "odds"
20% ( 2%) ... 53% (0%)
(+5% / +11% from last week)
Leeds title/promotion "odds": 70% / 90%
Colchester title/promotion "odds": 6% / 38%
... and Huddersfield now almost neck and neck with Colchester.
Leeds 95%
Charlton 48% (down 5% from weekend)
Huddersfiled 43%
Colchester 37%
Norwich 22%
Millwall 12%
Franchise 12%
Charlton 54% (+5)
Colchester 42%
Huddersfield 33%
Norwich 27%
Swindon 10%
Millwall 10%
Walsall 8%
Franchise 7%
Don't think so. My theory is that the anorak behind this can only be AFKA, doing a bit of moonlighting!
mkdons appear to be flagging
2 automatics are between us, Leeds, Norwich and Hudds I think - col u don't have the squad to go the distance hopefully
Leeds 98%
Charlton 64% (+10)
Norwich 35%
Colchester 32%
Huddersfield 25%
Millwall 11%
Walsall 11%
Charlton 67% (+3)
Norwich 39%
Colchester 34%
Huddersfield 23%
Swindon 11%
....
Millwall 7%
Charlton 72% ......... (17% for title)
Colchester 37%
Norwich 33%
Huddersfiled 24%
Millwall 8%
ei ei eio, up the football stats we go. and when we gain promotion this is what we'll sing!
Leeds 98% .............(90% for title)
Norwich 53% .......... (4% for title)
Colchester 47% ...... (3% for title)
Charlton 46% ......... (3% for title)
Huddersfiled 22%
Swindon 11%
Millwall 7%
Leeds look pretty certain to win title then, but still you never know
Shame we have gone down but a few wins in a row will change that and well be back up there again
1.8% Burnley
2.0% Derby
2.2% Millwall
2.3% Birmingham
6.9% Blackburn
7.2% Charlton
8.8% Blackpool
16.2% Huddersfield
23.3% Ipswich
26.5% Sheff W
26.9% Barnsley
47.3% Wolves
53.2% Peterborough
75.1% Bristol City RPI: Ratings Percentage Index rank among all team in the league. "The Rating Percentage Index, commonly known as the RPI, is a quantity used to rank sports teams based upon a team's wins and losses and its strength of schedule."
Strength: Expected winning percentage the weighted method uses when simulating games. To calculate we start with (depending on the league) either the current winning percentage or a fancier formula based on goals delta . Then the percentage is regressed towards the mean, a fancy way of saying nudged back towards .500, a lot early in the season and less and less as the season progresses.
Basically I think RPI takes into account the difficulty of each team's run in and ranks them? That might be completely wrong. It's used a lot in American sport so someone familiar with that might know exactly.
Strength is a measure of how good each team is in the league based on their position and their W-D-L record, it helps weight the results because of course in a game 1st vs 24th, there isn't a 33% chance of each outcome.