Attention: Please take a moment to consider our terms and conditions before posting.
23 points from 18 games
Callumcafc
Posts: 64,128
25/26: 6 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses …
24/25: 6 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses - season ended in promotion
19/20: 6 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses - season ended in relegation
Will it be a promotion season, relegation season, or something in between? Is it too early to tell?
10
Comments
-
0%promotion
50% survival
50% relegation2 -
In 2019/20 our next five games were 2 draws and 3 losses, meaning that after we played everyone once we had 6 wins, 7 draws and 10 losses.
In 2024/25 our next five games were 3 wins and 2 draws, meaning that after we played everyone once we had 9 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses.
Both of those seasons, up until this exact point, have been very similar to the current season. But their paths diverged between games 19 and 23 and ended with completely opposite results.
It could be a crucial month of fixtures between now and the New Year and set the tone for January onwards.7 -
And this is also when Nathan Jones teams click and shift up a gear. I do not expect us to be play off bound, but still feel we will do enough to stay up mid table.9
-
It all comes down to the owners, it’s as simple as that.Callumcafc said:25/26: 6 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses …
24/25: 6 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses - season ended in promotion
19/20: 6 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses - season ended in relegation
Will it be a promotion season, relegation season, or something in between? Is it too early to tell?0 -
I think we'll be fine, probably somewhere around 15-16th. We desperately need people back from injury or a good January transfer window though.
I'll probably start to panic if we lose on Saturday though. Big month ahead playing Pompey twice, Oxford and Norwich.6 -
Interesting! On a par stats-wise with Creepy in the cricket today (won’t be specific in case anyone is planning to watch on catch-up).
One of the key factors last season in Jones’ team clicking was players returning from injury - eg Edwards and Ramsay. Feels like we’re a long way off that this season unfortunately.3 -
I think we wil stay up.
The teams we have lost to have either been tight or they were prem quality
The teams of our level we have been doing ok against
Injuries will be key6 -
I honestly see nothing currently that makes me think we’ll be mid-table. Nathan Jones isn’t a miracle worker, we can see that having been beaten comfortably the past three matches, so I don’t see that there is any automatic “click and shift up a gear” that is bound to happen just because it’s a Nathan Jones team.BalladMan said:And this is also when Nathan Jones teams click and shift up a gear. I do not expect us to be play off bound, but still feel we will do enough to stay up mid table.
We really need a good points haul this month or we are going to be in a serious relegation scrap.2 -
We’ve just come through a run of games against sides either sitting in the promotion spots and winning every week, or teams bang in form and pushing to get there. As a few people have said in other threads, if these same four results were scattered across the season with the odd win or draw in between, we’d probably just shrug and move on.
The only genuinely worrying display was Southampton. Wrexham beat us with a very soft penalty, Stoke scored a complete fluke that put us on the back foot, and Coventry are having a once-in-a-generation season — and we still matched them for long spells.
Not saying there aren’t issues, because there clearly are, but beat Portsmouth and the whole picture will feel a lot healthier.
7 -
The funny thing about the Southampton result, was that for weeks on the NTTT podcast they had been banging on about Southamptons XG being really good, and that they had just not been taking their chances. It was so bloody obvious that it would change against us!!1
-
Sponsored links:
-
Brilliant stats @Callumcafc.
I remember from the Premier League days that when results were going well, even the top sides didn't look too scary, whereas when things weren't going so well, every game looked difficult. I feel the same now. Three weeks ago, we would have fancied our chances in all six December games; now, it's a matter of necessity that we at least do OK. January looks like a tough bunch of games, so a win this weekend will not only make things feel better but will be a step towards a more comfortable position. Fingers crossed.0 -
Yeah definitely bottom 6, praying not bottom 3. Season defining transfer window plus the physio room need to work miraclesbolloxbolder said:0%promotion
50% survival
50% relegation2 -
5% promotion
85% survival
10% relegation
I think we will finish 10th to 14th, a good first season back.0 -
Everyone was saying exactly the same after Crawley last year. I don't expect us to go on the same sort of run, but we have just played 2 teams who will be top 6 (Stoke and Coventry) and the best southampton display in 2/3 years. These kind of runs happen in football, but still think we will be better than 2 othewr teams in this division AT LEAST and probably between 12-16th at the finishse9addick said:
I honestly see nothing currently that makes me think we’ll be mid-table. Nathan Jones isn’t a miracle worker, we can see that having been beaten comfortably the past three matches, so I don’t see that there is any automatic “click and shift up a gear” that is bound to happen just because it’s a Nathan Jones team.BalladMan said:And this is also when Nathan Jones teams click and shift up a gear. I do not expect us to be play off bound, but still feel we will do enough to stay up mid table.
We really need a good points haul this month or we are going to be in a serious relegation scrap.0 -
Just under half way finish for us IMO, which would be Just fine, unless we strengthen massively which is highly unlikely.0
-
Last season Nathan happened upon a TC Ramsay or Small combination didn't he (pleased if someone can explain as I can't recall specifically) that shored up the flanks and after a couple of stabilising results v Mansfield and Lincoln we started playing some attractive football and winning games. Now we have a specific problem at left back and once resolved should be OK again.
In a previous season it was Asiimwe and TC that stepped up and pulled us through a difficult spell though i think the former plays as a right wing back role (can he play left?).0 -
Beat Portsmouth and Oxford at home and draw to Middlesbrough or Norwich and we’ll have 30 points by the halfway stage. Think that’s very possible and something I would’ve been happy with at the start of the season3
-
Exactly as I see it - I think we will end up between lower middle table and a few places above the relegation zone - as long as we can get players back or bring reinforcements in and get back to the proven 352 formula - we have to stop compounding the problems by moving square pegs into round holes - back to basics and we will be finethai malaysia addick said:Brilliant stats @Callumcafc.
I remember from the Premier League days that when results were going well, even the top sides didn't look too scary, whereas when things weren't going so well, every game looked difficult. I feel the same now. Three weeks ago, we would have fancied our chances in all six December games; now, it's a matter of necessity that we at least do OK. January looks like a tough bunch of games, so a win this weekend will not only make things feel better but will be a step towards a more comfortable position. Fingers crossed.0 -
I hope you’re right, I can’t face going back to L1!BalladMan said:
Everyone was saying exactly the same after Crawley last year. I don't expect us to go on the same sort of run, but we have just played 2 teams who will be top 6 (Stoke and Coventry) and the best southampton display in 2/3 years. These kind of runs happen in football, but still think we will be better than 2 othewr teams in this division AT LEAST and probably between 12-16th at the finishse9addick said:
I honestly see nothing currently that makes me think we’ll be mid-table. Nathan Jones isn’t a miracle worker, we can see that having been beaten comfortably the past three matches, so I don’t see that there is any automatic “click and shift up a gear” that is bound to happen just because it’s a Nathan Jones team.BalladMan said:And this is also when Nathan Jones teams click and shift up a gear. I do not expect us to be play off bound, but still feel we will do enough to stay up mid table.
We really need a good points haul this month or we are going to be in a serious relegation scrap.0 -
Sponsored links:
-
I think we all knew that, at some point, we were going to have a run of poor form - particularly against some of the stronger sides in this league, who clearly have a substantially higher budget and significantly better squads than we do.
It's absolutely no coincidence that that this happened when we got hit by the injuries. Edwards, Bell and (to a lesser extent) Burke have ravaged our defense and, as a result, the structural balance of the team. Edwards was the worst one to lose, because of his attributes and what he allows Campbell to do on that left side - he frees up Campbell from any defensive responsibility on the left side, and slips in as cover to support the back 3 when we are out of possession. The only other player that can do this is Bell, who also now currently injured. Gillesphey doesn't have the pace to cover, meaning Ramsay is the only one who can partially cover. Other wildcard solutions like Hernandez have also been met with calamitous results. The impact of Burke is that Jones, Ramsay and, to some extent, Bree (although, positionally, not being employed as much defensively), have arguably played a lot more minutes and probably through low-level injury than we wanted. The constant reshuffling destabilised a working defense that could compete at a Championship level into one that was looking very L1.
People have also now noticed the reduction in press and ball retention from having neither of Kelman or Godden up front, and we've tried various other options to make things fit - only to have it impacted again by injury when Bell went off at Coventry when we had found a new solution. I stand by my observations that Docherty and Gillesphey are the weak links right now - and you can add Leaburn into that mix too. These are all players that are starting to look like they are not good enough at the level. People want to add Campbell into that too (and quite notably from the away reaction at Coventry), but I just think he is a victim of the constant reshuffling of the pack around him, not being employed in the best position to use him and losing confidence as a result. I'm still on the fence about several of the summer signings too, but many of them haven't had nearly enough minutes.
The Xmas period will be a significant factor in whether we do stay up, but I think there's enough still going in our favour. I think the board will continue to back Jones to bring in players in January. Chef Wendy are essentially down, and I definitely think there are AT LEAST 2 more sides worse than us. Broadly, our home form has been very solid - and I think Southampton stunned us that day and we shouldn't set up in the same way again. I sometimes feel we would get more out of certain players in a 4-2-3-1 than the variant of WB/3-at-the-back systems we employ, but NJ knows his squad to get what he wants out of them.
When a few players come back and, if they can finish the season, we should look better. Top half was always going to be a pipe dream and I thought a run like this would still come, even when we were doing well. I think there are players we could harvest from L1 that could improve us. We're still largely a L1 squad that needs more quality for this level. Home form should be enough to carry us through - we just need to stop the rot that's happening atm and get some points off the teams that are also in and around it. Might not be entirely comfortable to the end - still think we'll be good enough to stay up.5 -
Honestly at this point, we just need to beat Pompey.0
-
Cracking postth0rryy said:I think we all knew that, at some point, we were going to have a run of poor form - particularly against some of the stronger sides in this league, who clearly have a substantially higher budget and significantly better squads than we do.
It's absolutely no coincidence that that this happened when we got hit by the injuries. Edwards, Bell and (to a lesser extent) Burke have ravaged our defense and, as a result, the structural balance of the team. Edwards was the worst one to lose, because of his attributes and what he allows Campbell to do on that left side - he frees up Campbell from any defensive responsibility on the left side, and slips in as cover to support the back 3 when we are out of possession. The only other player that can do this is Bell, who also now currently injured. Gillesphey doesn't have the pace to cover, meaning Ramsay is the only one who can partially cover. Other wildcard solutions like Hernandez have also been met with calamitous results. The impact of Burke is that Jones, Ramsay and, to some extent, Bree (although, positionally, not being employed as much defensively), have arguably played a lot more minutes and probably through low-level injury than we wanted. The constant reshuffling destabilised a working defense that could compete at a Championship level into one that was looking very L1.
People have also now noticed the reduction in press and ball retention from having neither of Kelman or Godden up front, and we've tried various other options to make things fit - only to have it impacted again by injury when Bell went off at Coventry when we had found a new solution. I stand by my observations that Docherty and Gillesphey are the weak links right now - and you can add Leaburn into that mix too. These are all players that are starting to look like they are not good enough at the level. People want to add Campbell into that too (and quite notably from the away reaction at Coventry), but I just think he is a victim of the constant reshuffling of the pack around him, not being employed in the best position to use him and losing confidence as a result. I'm still on the fence about several of the summer signings too, but many of them haven't had nearly enough minutes.
The Xmas period will be a significant factor in whether we do stay up, but I think there's enough still going in our favour. I think the board will continue to back Jones to bring in players in January. Chef Wendy are essentially down, and I definitely think there are AT LEAST 2 more sides worse than us. Broadly, our home form has been very solid - and I think Southampton stunned us that day and we shouldn't set up in the same way again. I sometimes feel we would get more out of certain players in a 4-2-3-1 than the variant of WB/3-at-the-back systems we employ, but NJ knows his squad to get what he wants out of them.
When a few players come back and, if they can finish the season, we should look better. Top half was always going to be a pipe dream and I thought a run like this would still come, even when we were doing well. I think there are players we could harvest from L1 that could improve us. We're still largely a L1 squad that needs more quality for this level. Home form should be enough to carry us through - we just need to stop the rot that's happening atm and get some points off the teams that are also in and around it. Might not be entirely comfortable to the end - still think we'll be good enough to stay up.2 -
We'll be neither promoted nor relegated (hopefully ... on both counts! The Premier League would be great financially but on a footballing level it'd be bloody awful).
It won't be pretty and it probably won't be too comfortable but a finish of 21st or better is where we'll end up.1 -
I mean this season we're certainly more likely to be relegated than promoted.
The hope is that we end up midtable/top of the bottom 3rd and survive comfortably.
Any notion of play-offs or above is fanciful.0 -
Survival 50%
Relegation 50%0
