Last month was showing London dropping which the local agents confirmed that it's stagnating at best,
Yes, that's why I was surprised to see these latest national figures.
Dont they calculate their figures on comparative actual sales, not estay agent asking prices and deals that don’t go through ?
Not sure who uses it, but the most reliable figures are the ones produced by RICS (the surveyors) as they use the prices that they are quoting for mortgage valuations & surveys.
House price falls are needed. Socially and economically high prices are a disaster for the country. I hope they halve in the next couple of years to give the younger priced out generation a chance to own their own home.
House price falls are needed. Socially and economically high prices are a disaster for the country. I hope they halve in the next couple of years to give the younger priced out generation a chance to own their own home.
I agree with the sentiment. There is absolutely no chance of that until the supply of affordable housing is radically and consistently increased.
House price falls are needed. Socially and economically high prices are a disaster for the country. I hope they halve in the next couple of years to give the younger priced out generation a chance to own their own home.
I agree with the sentiment. There is absolutely no chance of that until the supply of affordable housing is radically and consistently increased.
I'm not sure this is necessarily true - the impact of property supply on property prices manifests itself in two ways, in the short-term the current supply of properties for sale (mainly existing properties not new builds), and second in the much longer-term the supply of newly built properties.
By definition the latter is a very slow-moving variable which whilst providing support to the view that UK property will remain in a structural deficit given household formation trends etc., this variable could nonetheless be overwhelmed in the shorter-term by a sudden increase in supply of existing properties for sale.
For the timebeing (as clearly noted by the RICS surveys), instructions are at a very low level due to for example stamp duty concerns (for those seeking to move up the ladder) and limited distressed sellers (given low interest rates), but these factors need not be permanent and combined with a potential 'buyers strike' (if it is perceived that prices will be lower in the future) could certainly lead to substantial downward moves in prices.
For now we are in a state of what I would term 'stable disequilibrium' evidenced by the low levels of transactions with the more likely break to the downside and not the status quo of the past 20 years.
There could be a dynamic that starts to correct house prices.
A mixture of Brexit, interest rate rises and taxation on BTL are all set to meet in around 2 years time.
I think property values are now over the peak and are only heading one way, it’s just a matter of how far they fall. I don’t see them halving but could quite easily see a 20%+ drop over the next 2-3 years.
If we had a government (ie labour) who put in rent caps/controls then you could easily see reductions in property values far exceeding 20%.
But be careful what we wish for, anyone who buys in the preceding few years, particularly FTB’s could be in a whole world of trouble which would have massive consequential knock on effects if property values halved. How many people have 50%+ equity?
I've got a 5 year plan to get out of the BTL market - seems things are about to get "interesting". At least I won't have to pay CGT on my rental properties when I sell. Just as long as I can cover all the mortgages...
I've got a 5 year plan to get out of the BTL market - seems things are about to get "interesting". At least I won't have to pay CGT on my rental properties when I sell. Just as long as I can cover all the mortgages...
If you aren’t in it for the next 15 - 20 years I’d be getting out now.
There could be a dynamic that starts to correct house prices.
A mixture of Brexit, interest rate rises and taxation on BTL are all set to meet in around 2 years time.
I think property values are now over the peak and are only heading one way, it’s just a matter of how far they fall. I don’t see them halving but could quite easily see a 20%+ drop over the next 2-3 years.
If we had a government (ie labour) who put in rent caps/controls then you could easily see reductions in property values far exceeding 20%.
But be careful what we wish for, anyone who buys in the preceding few years, particularly FTB’s could be in a whole world of trouble which would have massive consequential knock on effects if property values halved. How many people have 50%+ equity?
It's a classic zero sum game. Either overextended mortgage holders or the priced out young are going to lose. Looking it dispassionately I don't see why an older cohort who took a punt should be protected if it inevitably punishes a whole generation beneath them who's only chance of owning their own place will come down to an accident of birth.
There could be a dynamic that starts to correct house prices.
A mixture of Brexit, interest rate rises and taxation on BTL are all set to meet in around 2 years time.
I think property values are now over the peak and are only heading one way, it’s just a matter of how far they fall. I don’t see them halving but could quite easily see a 20%+ drop over the next 2-3 years.
If we had a government (ie labour) who put in rent caps/controls then you could easily see reductions in property values far exceeding 20%.
But be careful what we wish for, anyone who buys in the preceding few years, particularly FTB’s could be in a whole world of trouble which would have massive consequential knock on effects if property values halved. How many people have 50%+ equity?
It's a classic zero sum game. Either overextended mortgage holders or the priced out young are going to lose. Looking it dispassionately I don't see why an older cohort who took a punt should be protected if it inevitably punishes a whole generation beneath them who's only chance of owning their own place will come down to an accident of birth.
Although it won’t necessarily improve the overall situation, you’ll just swap those who couldn’t get on the ladder but now can with those falling off.
Not sure you can class anyone joining the ladder in the last 5+ years as having taken a punt.......
The ideal would be prices drop maybe 10% and then stagnate for 10 years allowing salaries to begin to catch up. A massive drop will not help society in general although selfishly it’d suit me and mine.
At the risk of sounding like a simpleton, I am surprised that you ignore some pretty straightforward facts:
- in the time since I left the UK, the population has grown by 11m. - it is undisputed that in that period the rate of new home building has in no way kept up with that growth in market size - in particular there has been virtually nothing built by the State. Only now have the Tories decided that the ghost of the old bat no longer haunts them and it's safe to start talking about social housing again , so long as nobody calls them council houses. But that's all it is, talk. - In London the global super rich have been allowed to buy up the centre and push prices into the stratosphere, which of course ripples outwards. As I have several times pointed out, the value of my house compared to when I left has gone up over 500%, whereas the equiv salary of my old job, less than 100%.Ordinary people therefore take on mortgages of a size and property multiple that would have given me a heart attack. They shut their eyes, work their asses off, and hope it'll all work out. - the country's economy is more and more skewed towards London and SE, pushing up prices even more. Of course that's why property in places like Burnley and South Shields stagnate. Are we going to encourage people in Dartford to re-locate to those places? I don't think so.
So I am sticking to the good old fashioned economic laws of supply and demand. I can well imagine a dip of 10% maybe 20% but within 2-3 years they will be on the march up again (in London and SE) , unless supply is significantly increased.
At the risk of sounding like a simpleton, I am surprised that you ignore some pretty straightforward facts:
- in the time since I left the UK, the population has grown by 11m. - it is undisputed that in that period the rate of new home building has in no way kept up with that growth in market size - in particular there has been virtually nothing built by the State. Only now have the Tories decided that the ghost of the old bat no longer haunts them and it's safe to start talking about social housing again , so long as nobody calls them council houses. But that's all it is, talk. - In London the global super rich have been allowed to buy up the centre and push prices into the stratosphere, which of course ripples outwards. As I have several times pointed out, the value of my house compared to when I left has gone up over 500%, whereas the equiv salary of my old job, less than 100%.Ordinary people therefore take on mortgages of a size and property multiple that would have given me a heart attack. They shut their eyes, work their asses off, and hope it'll all work out. - the country's economy is more and more skewed towards London and SE, pushing up prices even more. Of course that's why property in places like Burnley and South Shields stagnate. Are we going to encourage people in Dartford to re-locate to those places? I don't think so.
So I am sticking to the good old fashioned economic laws of supply and demand. I can well imagine a dip of 10% maybe 20% but within 2-3 years they will be on the march up again (in London and SE) , unless supply is significantly increased.
What was the interest rate back when you left the UK @PragueAddick ? (Sorry, not sure when you left).
i.e. If your house was worth 100k when you left and the mortgage rate was 9.5% thats £873/£791 a month (Repayment/Interest Only) where as now at 500% growth it's 500k and say 1.5% it's £2,000/£625 a month.
The interest element is now far less despite salary increasing 100%. Yes the repayment element is more but so is the value you are buying. The £100k house value would costs in total £261,900 (so if house price didn't move net cost of £161,900), the £500k value would cost £600,000 (so if house price did;t move net cost of £100k). All based on a 25 year mortgage.
It's of course all relative and in the real world a much larger deposit would be required today (which is a point I've made many times as to the main stumbling block, not prices as such).
The SE/London is the crazy element, use your example elsewhere in the country and you may be surprised (pleasantly). In 2005 you could have bought a 6 bed victorian in a nice road in Nottingham for just under £350k, you'd be lucky if thats increased to £400k by now, on the flip side a London property of that price in 2005 is probably nearer £8-900k.
Good point about interest rates @Rob7Lee, I left at beginning of 1993 - not long after that time we crashed out of the ERM, so 9% probably a good guess.
But your Nottingham point illustrates mine. There is no plan to economically rebalance England, and the imbalance just gets worse and worse. I remember Evan Davies did a very fine series on this , and that was several years ago now. He found a bloke commuting to his job in a marcomms agency in London from Stockport!!! You have to build more in London and SE. I thought this was pretty much accepted by just about everyone except this Tory govt, but clearly I was mistaken.
Clearly London and the City environs isn’t representative of the UK but it is a key driver of the economy and what goes on there impacts on the rest of the country, the EU and the rest of the world. Take a stroll around any area in the city, mid town, west end and particularly to the east and you’ll start to realise there is something going on, regardless of what should be happening and Brexit, that has a life of its own. While everybody is concentrating on the regulated sector and how it’s doomed when a hard Brexit happens it seems everybody else is just carrying on doing their own thing and it’s thriving. Like the UK govt woke up a few years ago to a tech city that built itself around Old Street and I sat in on presentations in places like Berlin that raved about the Fintech revolution in the UK sooner or later they are going to wake up to what’s going on now. Obviously I’ve got no idea what it is but clearly something has taken on a life if it’s own east if the city and it’s booming. Don’t believe me ? Take that stroll around town. This isn’t a place that’s dying on its feet. And if there’s money flowing here then it will push prooerty prices up further.
Many people still commute a good distance, I know people at my place as far as the Isle of Wight, Norfolk, Peterborough and Birmingham all commuting into central London each day. I couldn't personally spend 6+ hours a day committing, but then again when I see the size of the houses they all own ......
I agree on the second point, the problem is in London that property is now beginning to be crammed in, mostly flats. Move out a bit further and plenty of land to build on and to build houses (AKA Ebbsfleet).
These debates are always London/south east centric. Good that @Rob7Lee talks about the rest of the UK
It’s likely forgotten on here to an extent given we’re all cafc fans and that means we grew up in an around the area (most of us)
I get the point re: interest rates back in the day but Prague nails it for me
I also know that some of you on here have mentioned if you want a house bad enough etc it can be obtained (and some have given examples on here)
I fail to see though if you took the avg price in my ward (Dulwich and W Norwood - yes I know Dulwich is plush) it’s £670k
Only go down the road to my childhood home in Brockley and that house £500k
If you go by 10% deposit, £50k needed for the Brockley house plus fees. Have a word
You are looking at some serious ‘wanting it’ to clobber together that deposit and that’s coming down to good job, very good job, or help from a parent or family (there’s also a lot of you in that age demographic on here and wonder how people say who have kids in their late teens/early 20s feel about money they might have to stump up if they want their kids on the ladder)
Of course this is my area, appreciate prices lower going further out, but these houses that are at £500k, even if they drop 20% (unlikely) you’re still asking first timers to get £40k deposit
There’s been a fantastic window for people over the last 20 years and if you’re on the bus, you’re on it.
These debates are always London/south east centric. Good that @Rob7Lee talks about the rest of the UK
It’s likely forgotten on here to an extent given we’re all cafc fans and that means we grew up in an around the area (most of us)
I get the point re: interest rates back in the day but Prague nails it for me
I also know that some of you on here have mentioned if you want a house bad enough etc it can be obtained (and some have given examples on here)
I fail to see though if you took the avg price in my ward (Dulwich and W Norwood - yes I know Dulwich is plush) it’s £670k
Only go down the road to my childhood home in Brockley and that house £500k
If you go by 10% deposit, £50k needed for the Brockley house plus fees. Have a word
You are looking at some serious ‘wanting it’ to clobber together that deposit and that’s coming down to good job, very good job, or help from a parent or family (there’s also a lot of you in that age demographic on here and wonder how people say who have kids in their late teens/early 20s feel about money they might have to stump up if they want their kids on the ladder)
Of course this is my area, appreciate prices lower going further out, but these houses that are at £500k, even if they drop 20% (unlikely) you’re still asking first timers to get £40k deposit
There’s been a fantastic window for people over the last 20 years and if you’re on the bus, you’re on it.
Maybe consider what the previous generations did........ move out to get on the ladder. It was very common certainly for my parents generation (my mum grew up in Brockley, my dad East Ham then Eltham). They rented a room off an aunt for 3 years or so to raise the deposit to then buy in Rainham in Kent.
They didn't 'want' to move out that far (or I'm sure live with an Aunt when they'd just got married) or out at all but thats all they could afford. Then luckily about 5 years later the house price had gone up enough to secure a deposit large enough to move back to Eltham.
You could buy a flat in parts of SE London for £225k/£22.5k deposit, shared ownership?The key thing is to get on the ladder as near to London as possible!
Good point about interest rates @Rob7Lee, I left at beginning of 1993 - not long after that time we crashed out of the ERM, so 9% probably a good guess.
But your Nottingham point illustrates mine. There is no plan to economically rebalance England, and the imbalance just gets worse and worse. I remember Evan Davies did a very fine series on this , and that was several years ago now. He found a bloke commuting to his job in a marcomms agency in London from Stockport!!! You have to build more in London and SE. I thought this was pretty much accepted by just about everyone except this Tory govt, but clearly I was mistaken.
Fancy a fact?
Tom Copley, Labour's housing spokesman in the capital, said that Margaret Thatcher's government had built more council flats and houses in a single year than New Labour's managed in its entire period in office.
This is correct. The official data shows that the Blair and Brown governments built 7,870 council houses (local authority tenure) over the course of 13 years. (If we don't include 2010 - the year when David Cameron became PM - this number drops to 6,510.) Mr Copley has contrasted this figure with the record of Mrs Thatcher's government, which never built fewer than 17,710 homes in a year.
There could be a dynamic that starts to correct house prices.
A mixture of Brexit, interest rate rises and taxation on BTL are all set to meet in around 2 years time.
I think property values are now over the peak and are only heading one way, it’s just a matter of how far they fall. I don’t see them halving but could quite easily see a 20%+ drop over the next 2-3 years.
If we had a government (ie labour) who put in rent caps/controls then you could easily see reductions in property values far exceeding 20%.
But be careful what we wish for, anyone who buys in the preceding few years, particularly FTB’s could be in a whole world of trouble which would have massive consequential knock on effects if property values halved. How many people have 50%+ equity?
It's a classic zero sum game. Either overextended mortgage holders or the priced out young are going to lose. Looking it dispassionately I don't see why an older cohort who took a punt should be protected if it inevitably punishes a whole generation beneath them who's only chance of owning their own place will come down to an accident of birth.
Not just 'old cohorts taking a punt'.
I've literally just brought my first place in Maidstone at aged 32 after saving my bollocks off for a decade of no interest and with no help from bank of mummy and daddy etc and have probably over-stretched a bit (to avoid having to move again in the next 10 years).
Can't say I'd be too chuffed if house prices now halve, meaning a generation of people who want the latest everything in life but can't be arsed to save, can get on the ladder nice and easily.
I know not everyone is in that bracket but then not everyone buying in the last few years was "taking a punt" and should be sacrificed.
These debates are always London/south east centric. Good that @Rob7Lee talks about the rest of the UK
It’s likely forgotten on here to an extent given we’re all cafc fans and that means we grew up in an around the area (most of us)
I get the point re: interest rates back in the day but Prague nails it for me
I also know that some of you on here have mentioned if you want a house bad enough etc it can be obtained (and some have given examples on here)
I fail to see though if you took the avg price in my ward (Dulwich and W Norwood - yes I know Dulwich is plush) it’s £670k
Only go down the road to my childhood home in Brockley and that house £500k
If you go by 10% deposit, £50k needed for the Brockley house plus fees. Have a word
You are looking at some serious ‘wanting it’ to clobber together that deposit and that’s coming down to good job, very good job, or help from a parent or family (there’s also a lot of you in that age demographic on here and wonder how people say who have kids in their late teens/early 20s feel about money they might have to stump up if they want their kids on the ladder)
Of course this is my area, appreciate prices lower going further out, but these houses that are at £500k, even if they drop 20% (unlikely) you’re still asking first timers to get £40k deposit
There’s been a fantastic window for people over the last 20 years and if you’re on the bus, you’re on it.
Maybe consider what the previous generations did........ move out to get on the ladder. It was very common certainly for my parents generation (my mum grew up in Brockley, my dad East Ham then Eltham). They rented a room off an aunt for 3 years or so to raise the deposit to then buy in Rainham in Kent.
They didn't 'want' to move out that far (or I'm sure live with an Aunt when they'd just got married) or out at all but thats all they could afford. Then luckily about 5 years later the house price had gone up enough to secure a deposit large enough to move back to Eltham.
You could buy a flat in parts of SE London for £225k/£22.5k deposit, shared ownership?The key thing is to get on the ladder as near to London as possible!
That’s exactly what we did. Both my wife and I are south Londoners but we bought our first house in Medway in 1985 for £41k. The interest rate hit 15% at one point and it took all my earnings just to pay the mortgage! We then traded up in Kent and stayed there until 2007 when we moved to Cheshire.
The thought of starting out now on the ladder in the south east would scare me senseless. A correction down there is long overdue.
Outside of that region prices are not as silly - my eldest bought his first house a couple of years ago - 3 bed detached for £157k.
Good point about interest rates @Rob7Lee, I left at beginning of 1993 - not long after that time we crashed out of the ERM, so 9% probably a good guess.
But your Nottingham point illustrates mine. There is no plan to economically rebalance England, and the imbalance just gets worse and worse. I remember Evan Davies did a very fine series on this , and that was several years ago now. He found a bloke commuting to his job in a marcomms agency in London from Stockport!!! You have to build more in London and SE. I thought this was pretty much accepted by just about everyone except this Tory govt, but clearly I was mistaken.
Fancy a fact?
Tom Copley, Labour's housing spokesman in the capital, said that Margaret Thatcher's government had built more council flats and houses in a single year than New Labour's managed in its entire period in office.
This is correct. The official data shows that the Blair and Brown governments built 7,870 council houses (local authority tenure) over the course of 13 years. (If we don't include 2010 - the year when David Cameron became PM - this number drops to 6,510.) Mr Copley has contrasted this figure with the record of Mrs Thatcher's government, which never built fewer than 17,710 homes in a year.
I would say perhaps some of our younger more multicultural generation might want to take advantage of free movement of people and build a life on the conti......
Many people still commute a good distance, I know people at my place as far as the Isle of Wight, Norfolk, Peterborough and Birmingham all commuting into central London each day. I couldn't personally spend 6+ hours a day committing, but then again when I see the size of the houses they all own ......
I agree on the second point, the problem is in London that property is now beginning to be crammed in, mostly flats. Move out a bit further and plenty of land to build on and to build houses (AKA Ebbsfleet).
The fact that we are moving to a Manhattan mentality of wanting to live in tall apartment blocks in areas where there is work, and plenty of things to do for recreation is a plus point, not a problem. There’s a reason why property is cheap out in the sticks, there’s fck all to do for the young and old.
These debates are always London/south east centric. Good that @Rob7Lee talks about the rest of the UK
It’s likely forgotten on here to an extent given we’re all cafc fans and that means we grew up in an around the area (most of us)
I get the point re: interest rates back in the day but Prague nails it for me
I also know that some of you on here have mentioned if you want a house bad enough etc it can be obtained (and some have given examples on here)
I fail to see though if you took the avg price in my ward (Dulwich and W Norwood - yes I know Dulwich is plush) it’s £670k
Only go down the road to my childhood home in Brockley and that house £500k
If you go by 10% deposit, £50k needed for the Brockley house plus fees. Have a word
You are looking at some serious ‘wanting it’ to clobber together that deposit and that’s coming down to good job, very good job, or help from a parent or family (there’s also a lot of you in that age demographic on here and wonder how people say who have kids in their late teens/early 20s feel about money they might have to stump up if they want their kids on the ladder)
Of course this is my area, appreciate prices lower going further out, but these houses that are at £500k, even if they drop 20% (unlikely) you’re still asking first timers to get £40k deposit
There’s been a fantastic window for people over the last 20 years and if you’re on the bus, you’re on it.
Maybe consider what the previous generations did........ move out to get on the ladder. It was very common certainly for my parents generation (my mum grew up in Brockley, my dad East Ham then Eltham). They rented a room off an aunt for 3 years or so to raise the deposit to then buy in Rainham in Kent.
They didn't 'want' to move out that far (or I'm sure live with an Aunt when they'd just got married) or out at all but thats all they could afford. Then luckily about 5 years later the house price had gone up enough to secure a deposit large enough to move back to Eltham.
You could buy a flat in parts of SE London for £225k/£22.5k deposit, shared ownership?The key thing is to get on the ladder as near to London as possible!
I'm surprised by that. My Dad was a modest civil servant and his family were poor - Plumstead, one of 7 kids- yet he was able to buy the little house in Eltham Park before I, the first child, was born. Maybe he did get a deposit together because at 32 he was perhaps older than average getting hitched, in those days. But I thought the whole idea of those Liliputian houses in Elibank Road was to give young families of modest means a decent first home. I don't think a civil servant of similar grade could afford the same house now, unless his wife also worked. My Mum was home all the time.
Many people still commute a good distance, I know people at my place as far as the Isle of Wight, Norfolk, Peterborough and Birmingham all commuting into central London each day. I couldn't personally spend 6+ hours a day committing, but then again when I see the size of the houses they all own ......
I agree on the second point, the problem is in London that property is now beginning to be crammed in, mostly flats. Move out a bit further and plenty of land to build on and to build houses (AKA Ebbsfleet).
The fact that we are moving to a Manhattan mentality of wanting to live in tall apartment blocks in areas where there is work, and plenty of things to do for recreation is a plus point, not a problem. There’s a reason why property is cheap out in the sticks, there’s fck all to do for the young and old.
Nonsense.
I live pretty much in a field surrounded by cows and the peace and quiet is golden.
But I’m a spit to Chester, 40 minutes to Manchester and Liverpool, an hour to the north Wales coast, 90 minutes to the Lake District, 30 minutes to the Peak District, and 90 minutes to Euston. And there is plenty of work.
Agreed, I can’t go drinking in the city every night but “when I was a child, I talked like a child, I thought like a child, I reasoned like a child. When I became a man I put the ways of childhood behind me.”
These debates are always London/south east centric. Good that @Rob7Lee talks about the rest of the UK
It’s likely forgotten on here to an extent given we’re all cafc fans and that means we grew up in an around the area (most of us)
I get the point re: interest rates back in the day but Prague nails it for me
I also know that some of you on here have mentioned if you want a house bad enough etc it can be obtained (and some have given examples on here)
I fail to see though if you took the avg price in my ward (Dulwich and W Norwood - yes I know Dulwich is plush) it’s £670k
Only go down the road to my childhood home in Brockley and that house £500k
If you go by 10% deposit, £50k needed for the Brockley house plus fees. Have a word
You are looking at some serious ‘wanting it’ to clobber together that deposit and that’s coming down to good job, very good job, or help from a parent or family (there’s also a lot of you in that age demographic on here and wonder how people say who have kids in their late teens/early 20s feel about money they might have to stump up if they want their kids on the ladder)
Of course this is my area, appreciate prices lower going further out, but these houses that are at £500k, even if they drop 20% (unlikely) you’re still asking first timers to get £40k deposit
There’s been a fantastic window for people over the last 20 years and if you’re on the bus, you’re on it.
Maybe consider what the previous generations did........ move out to get on the ladder. It was very common certainly for my parents generation (my mum grew up in Brockley, my dad East Ham then Eltham). They rented a room off an aunt for 3 years or so to raise the deposit to then buy in Rainham in Kent.
They didn't 'want' to move out that far (or I'm sure live with an Aunt when they'd just got married) or out at all but thats all they could afford. Then luckily about 5 years later the house price had gone up enough to secure a deposit large enough to move back to Eltham.
You could buy a flat in parts of SE London for £225k/£22.5k deposit, shared ownership?The key thing is to get on the ladder as near to London as possible!
I'm surprised by that. My Dad was a modest civil servant and his family were poor - Plumstead, one of 7 kids- yet he was able to buy the little house in Eltham Park before I, the first child, was born. Maybe he did get a deposit together because at 32 he was perhaps older than average getting hitched, in those days. But I thought the whole idea of those Liliputian houses in Elibank Road was to give young families of modest means a decent first home. I don't think a civil servant of similar grade could afford the same house now, unless his wife also worked. My Mum was home all the time.
My parents married at aged 22/23 back in the mid 60's, not sure of earnings, I know when they moved back to Eltham (73 I think) they earned between them just below £2k and managed to buy a 50/60's house just off court road (no heating!), a 3 bed end of terrace that sell for around £350k now, so pretty much some of the cheapest in the SE9 postcode, would guess 3 beds in Elibank are nearer £475-500k.
My daughter and her husband recently sold their two up two down 1980’s terraced House in Upper Belvedere for £290k and bought a 4/5 bedroomed stone built semi in a posher part of Torquay for £280k.
The difference in price is mind blowing and means that they and my granddaughter can have a home they want to live in at a reasonable cost.
Just how young families cope with cost of living in London and the South East is a mystery to me.
I've got a 5 year plan to get out of the BTL market - seems things are about to get "interesting". At least I won't have to pay CGT on my rental properties when I sell. Just as long as I can cover all the mortgages...
When you do look to sell Saga, give me a shout. I run my own Hybrid agency based in Welling. Currently are fees for sales and lets are the lowest in the area and if any Charlton fans sell with us, we'll donate 10% of our fee to the Charlton Upbeats.
On another note....
Prices have fallen as the demand is less in our area. It's always going be down to supply and demand, no one can predict which way it will completely head. But sales tend to slow down around Summer and pick up around Christmas/The new year. I honestly hope the prices in central London drop and any rental investments I would look to do, would never be in London, I would look towards the Midlands or Manchester. Times are changing where business's are based and many are moving away from London, so I expect prices to rise quicker elsewhere than in London for the coming future.
There could be a dynamic that starts to correct house prices.
A mixture of Brexit, interest rate rises and taxation on BTL are all set to meet in around 2 years time.
I think property values are now over the peak and are only heading one way, it’s just a matter of how far they fall. I don’t see them halving but could quite easily see a 20%+ drop over the next 2-3 years.
If we had a government (ie labour) who put in rent caps/controls then you could easily see reductions in property values far exceeding 20%.
But be careful what we wish for, anyone who buys in the preceding few years, particularly FTB’s could be in a whole world of trouble which would have massive consequential knock on effects if property values halved. How many people have 50%+ equity?
It's a classic zero sum game. Either overextended mortgage holders or the priced out young are going to lose. Looking it dispassionately I don't see why an older cohort who took a punt should be protected if it inevitably punishes a whole generation beneath them who's only chance of owning their own place will come down to an accident of birth.
Not just 'old cohorts taking a punt'.
I've literally just brought my first place in Maidstone at aged 32 after saving my bollocks off for a decade of no interest and with no help from bank of mummy and daddy etc and have probably over-stretched a bit (to avoid having to move again in the next 10 years).
Can't say I'd be too chuffed if house prices now halve, meaning a generation of people who want the latest everything in life but can't be arsed to save, can get on the ladder nice and easily.
I know not everyone is in that bracket but then not everyone buying in the last few years was "taking a punt" and should be sacrificed.
Fair enough about my terminology and I don't want anyone to be ruined by a crash but I stand by my point about damning one part of the population by propping up another.
Comments
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41917884
By definition the latter is a very slow-moving variable which whilst providing support to the view that UK property will remain in a structural deficit given household formation trends etc., this variable could nonetheless be overwhelmed in the shorter-term by a sudden increase in supply of existing properties for sale.
For the timebeing (as clearly noted by the RICS surveys), instructions are at a very low level due to for example stamp duty concerns (for those seeking to move up the ladder) and limited distressed sellers (given low interest rates), but these factors need not be permanent and combined with a potential 'buyers strike' (if it is perceived that prices will be lower in the future) could certainly lead to substantial downward moves in prices.
For now we are in a state of what I would term 'stable disequilibrium' evidenced by the low levels of transactions with the more likely break to the downside and not the status quo of the past 20 years.
A mixture of Brexit, interest rate rises and taxation on BTL are all set to meet in around 2 years time.
I think property values are now over the peak and are only heading one way, it’s just a matter of how far they fall. I don’t see them halving but could quite easily see a 20%+ drop over the next 2-3 years.
If we had a government (ie labour) who put in rent caps/controls then you could easily see reductions in property values far exceeding 20%.
But be careful what we wish for, anyone who buys in the preceding few years, particularly FTB’s could be in a whole world of trouble which would have massive consequential knock on effects if property values halved. How many people have 50%+ equity?
Not sure you can class anyone joining the ladder in the last 5+ years as having taken a punt.......
The ideal would be prices drop maybe 10% and then stagnate for 10 years allowing salaries to begin to catch up. A massive drop will not help society in general although selfishly it’d suit me and mine.
At the risk of sounding like a simpleton, I am surprised that you ignore some pretty straightforward facts:
- in the time since I left the UK, the population has grown by 11m.
- it is undisputed that in that period the rate of new home building has in no way kept up with that growth in market size
- in particular there has been virtually nothing built by the State. Only now have the Tories decided that the ghost of the old bat no longer haunts them and it's safe to start talking about social housing again , so long as nobody calls them council houses. But that's all it is, talk.
- In London the global super rich have been allowed to buy up the centre and push prices into the stratosphere, which of course ripples outwards. As I have several times pointed out, the value of my house compared to when I left has gone up over 500%, whereas the equiv salary of my old job, less than 100%.Ordinary people therefore take on mortgages of a size and property multiple that would have given me a heart attack. They shut their eyes, work their asses off, and hope it'll all work out.
- the country's economy is more and more skewed towards London and SE, pushing up prices even more. Of course that's why property in places like Burnley and South Shields stagnate. Are we going to encourage people in Dartford to re-locate to those places? I don't think so.
So I am sticking to the good old fashioned economic laws of supply and demand. I can well imagine a dip of 10% maybe 20% but within 2-3 years they will be on the march up again (in London and SE) , unless supply is significantly increased.
i.e. If your house was worth 100k when you left and the mortgage rate was 9.5% thats £873/£791 a month (Repayment/Interest Only) where as now at 500% growth it's 500k and say 1.5% it's £2,000/£625 a month.
The interest element is now far less despite salary increasing 100%. Yes the repayment element is more but so is the value you are buying. The £100k house value would costs in total £261,900 (so if house price didn't move net cost of £161,900), the £500k value would cost £600,000 (so if house price did;t move net cost of £100k). All based on a 25 year mortgage.
It's of course all relative and in the real world a much larger deposit would be required today (which is a point I've made many times as to the main stumbling block, not prices as such).
The SE/London is the crazy element, use your example elsewhere in the country and you may be surprised (pleasantly). In 2005 you could have bought a 6 bed victorian in a nice road in Nottingham for just under £350k, you'd be lucky if thats increased to £400k by now, on the flip side a London property of that price in 2005 is probably nearer £8-900k.
But your Nottingham point illustrates mine. There is no plan to economically rebalance England, and the imbalance just gets worse and worse. I remember Evan Davies did a very fine series on this , and that was several years ago now. He found a bloke commuting to his job in a marcomms agency in London from Stockport!!! You have to build more in London and SE. I thought this was pretty much accepted by just about everyone except this Tory govt, but clearly I was mistaken.
I agree on the second point, the problem is in London that property is now beginning to be crammed in, mostly flats. Move out a bit further and plenty of land to build on and to build houses (AKA Ebbsfleet).
It’s likely forgotten on here to an extent given we’re all cafc fans and that means we grew up in an around the area (most of us)
I get the point re: interest rates back in the day but Prague nails it for me
I also know that some of you on here have mentioned if you want a house bad enough etc it can be obtained (and some have given examples on here)
I fail to see though if you took the avg price in my ward (Dulwich and W Norwood - yes I know Dulwich is plush) it’s £670k
Only go down the road to my childhood home in Brockley and that house £500k
If you go by 10% deposit, £50k needed for the Brockley house plus fees. Have a word
You are looking at some serious ‘wanting it’ to clobber together that deposit and that’s coming down to good job, very good job, or help from a parent or family (there’s also a lot of you in that age demographic on here and wonder how people say who have kids in their late teens/early 20s feel about money they might have to stump up if they want their kids on the ladder)
Of course this is my area, appreciate prices lower going further out, but these houses that are at £500k, even if they drop 20% (unlikely) you’re still asking first timers to get £40k deposit
There’s been a fantastic window for people over the last 20 years and if you’re on the bus, you’re on it.
They didn't 'want' to move out that far (or I'm sure live with an Aunt when they'd just got married) or out at all but thats all they could afford. Then luckily about 5 years later the house price had gone up enough to secure a deposit large enough to move back to Eltham.
You could buy a flat in parts of SE London for £225k/£22.5k deposit, shared ownership?The key thing is to get on the ladder as near to London as possible!
Tom Copley, Labour's housing spokesman in the capital, said that Margaret Thatcher's government had built more council flats and houses in a single year than New Labour's managed in its entire period in office.
This is correct. The official data shows that the Blair and Brown governments built 7,870 council houses (local authority tenure) over the course of 13 years. (If we don't include 2010 - the year when David Cameron became PM - this number drops to 6,510.) Mr Copley has contrasted this figure with the record of Mrs Thatcher's government, which never built fewer than 17,710 homes in a year.
The current Govt at least have plans to be more effective than previous governments - who knows if they will come to fruition.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-announces-ambitious-plan-to-build-the-homes-britain-needs
I've literally just brought my first place in Maidstone at aged 32 after saving my bollocks off for a decade of no interest and with no help from bank of mummy and daddy etc and have probably over-stretched a bit (to avoid having to move again in the next 10 years).
Can't say I'd be too chuffed if house prices now halve, meaning a generation of people who want the latest everything in life but can't be arsed to save, can get on the ladder nice and easily.
I know not everyone is in that bracket but then not everyone buying in the last few years was "taking a punt" and should be sacrificed.
The thought of starting out now on the ladder in the south east would scare me senseless. A correction down there is long overdue.
Outside of that region prices are not as silly - my eldest bought his first house a couple of years ago - 3 bed detached for £157k.
I'm surprised by that. My Dad was a modest civil servant and his family were poor - Plumstead, one of 7 kids- yet he was able to buy the little house in Eltham Park before I, the first child, was born. Maybe he did get a deposit together because at 32 he was perhaps older than average getting hitched, in those days. But I thought the whole idea of those Liliputian houses in Elibank Road was to give young families of modest means a decent first home. I don't think a civil servant of similar grade could afford the same house now, unless his wife also worked. My Mum was home all the time.
I live pretty much in a field surrounded by cows and the peace and quiet is golden.
But I’m a spit to Chester, 40 minutes to Manchester and Liverpool, an hour to the north Wales coast, 90 minutes to the Lake District, 30 minutes to the Peak District, and 90 minutes to Euston. And there is plenty of work.
Agreed, I can’t go drinking in the city every night but “when I was a child, I talked like a child, I thought like a child, I reasoned like a child. When I became a man I put the ways of childhood behind me.”
The difference in price is mind blowing and means that they and my granddaughter can have a home they want to live in at a reasonable cost.
Just how young families cope with cost of living in London and the South East is a mystery to me.
On another note....
Prices have fallen as the demand is less in our area. It's always going be down to supply and demand, no one can predict which way it will completely head. But sales tend to slow down around Summer and pick up around Christmas/The new year. I honestly hope the prices in central London drop and any rental investments I would look to do, would never be in London, I would look towards the Midlands or Manchester. Times are changing where business's are based and many are moving away from London, so I expect prices to rise quicker elsewhere than in London for the coming future.