@Grapevine49 thanks for your post, I agree that China has an interest in retaining the status quo, but i am unsure about how NK firing missiles over Japan fits into that. Doing so provides Abe what he really wants, an excuse to re militarise. This would be a direct threat to China's regional hegemony and from what I understand, the switch can be flicked quickly, as it were. There is no way they want this, and indicates to me that this has gone a bit off script.
The rest of your points are spot on, there is a reason world leaders 'play the game' and don't just 'say what we're all thinking'. There are wider implications at play for the world as a whole.
We have a narcissist president who as a billionaire is unlikely to understand or be used to people telling him no. Add to that he is now arguably the most powerful individual on the planet and will revel in that status.
I'm sure that he can be reigned in by advisors both political and military but that advice won't be able to stop him shooting from the lip.
Insulting Kim Jong-Un is a bad mistake. The dictator cannot be seen to allow such slights without losing face. He, his father and grandfather indoctrinated the North Korean people to hate the USA. He's lied to them by telling them that NK can destroy mainland USA. At some point if the insults and threats keep rolling in from Trump he will be expected by his people to do something. Trump is pushing Kim Jong-Un into a corner. Forcing a madman into a situation he's not in control of is not a good idea.
I'm still fully confident that nothing military will come of this current crisis but both leaders are acting in a way where just one small error by either side could be very costly.
We have a narcissist president who as a billionaire is unlikely to understand or be used to people telling him no. Add to that he is now arguably the most powerful individual on the planet and will revel in that status.
I'm sure that he can be reigned in by advisors both political and military but that advice won't be able to stop him shooting from the lip.
Insulting Kim Jong-Un is a bad mistake. The dictator cannot be seen to allow such slights without losing face. He, his father and grandfather indoctrinated the North Korean people to hate the USA. He's lied to them by telling them that NK can destroy mainland USA. At some point if the insults and threats keep rolling in from Trump he will be expected by his people to do something. Trump is pushing Kim Jong-Un into a corner. Forcing a madman into a situation he's not in control of is not a good idea.
I'm still fully confident that nothing military will come of this current crisis but both leaders are acting in a way where just one small error by either side could be very costly.
I would have thought NK's citizens would not be told the content of Trump's tweets. I'm not sure losing face with his own citizens is a problem. I imagine the biggest threat comes from those in charge of the military who must be considering a coup before something really idiotic happens.
@Grapevine49 thanks for your post, I agree that China has an interest in retaining the status quo, but i am unsure about how NK firing missiles over Japan fits into that. Doing so provides Abe what he really wants, an excuse to re militarise. This would be a direct threat to China's regional hegemony and from what I understand, the switch can be flicked quickly, as it were. There is no way they want this, and indicates to me that this has gone a bit off script.
The rest of your points are spot on, there is a reason world leaders 'play the game' and don't just 'say what we're all thinking'. There are wider implications at play for the world as a whole.
After living here for 5 years, I can guarantee China will never allow Japan to re-militarize, Japan could have a fleet of aliens ready to invade and China's answer would still be the same "get f*****" quite rightly too.
What's stopping them militarising? Is it a UN sanction or something?
I don't understand why they wouldn't/couldn't if they needed to.
Japan is a very different country now.
Nothing. Other than Japan's own constitution. Article 9, amongst other things states that armed forces with war potential will not be maintained.
The current Japanese leadership is seemingly trying to change the position and re-militarise Japan. (Although clearly the so-called Self-Defence Forces already have some "war potential".)
We have a narcissist president who as a billionaire is unlikely to understand or be used to people telling him no. Add to that he is now arguably the most powerful individual on the planet and will revel in that status.
I'm sure that he can be reigned in by advisors both political and military but that advice won't be able to stop him shooting from the lip.
Insulting Kim Jong-Un is a bad mistake. The dictator cannot be seen to allow such slights without losing face. He, his father and grandfather indoctrinated the North Korean people to hate the USA. He's lied to them by telling them that NK can destroy mainland USA. At some point if the insults and threats keep rolling in from Trump he will be expected by his people to do something. Trump is pushing Kim Jong-Un into a corner. Forcing a madman into a situation he's not in control of is not a good idea.
I'm still fully confident that nothing military will come of this current crisis but both leaders are acting in a way where just one small error by either side could be very costly.
I would have thought NK's citizens would not be told the content of Trump's tweets. I'm not sure losing face with his own citizens is a problem. I imagine the biggest thread comes from those in charge of the military who must be considering a coup before something really idiotic happens.
This is how I see it ending. The Americans must have let the NK generals know by now that they'll be free and rich after the fall of the regime (if no nukes are launched or Seoul shelled etc) so when push comes to shove I can only see the leader being executed and the regime falling apart. I wonder if Trump will be in line for a Nobel prize if his 140 character diplomacy brings freedom to the Korean peninsula:-)?
What's stopping them militarising? Is it a UN sanction or something?
I don't understand why they wouldn't/couldn't if they needed to.
Japan is a very different country now.
The Japanese constitution (written by the allies) doesn't allow it.
Japan might be a different country but the hatred from the Chinese towards Japanese is on a level I've never experienced anywhere else before.
I'm also not sure it is that different, they still deny the atrocities of WW2 and refuse to apologize, protests are still regularly staged around South East Asia against Japan.
We have a narcissist president who as a billionaire is unlikely to understand or be used to people telling him no. Add to that he is now arguably the most powerful individual on the planet and will revel in that status.
I'm sure that he can be reigned in by advisors both political and military but that advice won't be able to stop him shooting from the lip.
Insulting Kim Jong-Un is a bad mistake. The dictator cannot be seen to allow such slights without losing face. He, his father and grandfather indoctrinated the North Korean people to hate the USA. He's lied to them by telling them that NK can destroy mainland USA. At some point if the insults and threats keep rolling in from Trump he will be expected by his people to do something. Trump is pushing Kim Jong-Un into a corner. Forcing a madman into a situation he's not in control of is not a good idea.
I'm still fully confident that nothing military will come of this current crisis but both leaders are acting in a way where just one small error by either side could be very costly.
I would have thought NK's citizens would not be told the content of Trump's tweets. I'm not sure losing face with his own citizens is a problem. I imagine the biggest threat comes from those in charge of the military who must be considering a coup before something really idiotic happens.
The North Koreans are indeed made aware of Trumps insults and threats. It's a propaganda dream for Kim Jong-Un. It reinforces the indoctrination that the USA is the great enemy.
I do agree that you would think that a military coup would be the ultimate outcome of this drama but KJU has culled his generals before and does not allow any to gain significant influence.
I tend to agree with Stu in regard to China and Japan. It would take several generations for the Chinese to soften and forgive Japanese WW2 behaviour. The West's modern history has been heavily shaped by WW2, especially with regard to the establishment of Israel and the follow on from that, as well as the EU and the resurgence of German economic power. In the Far East conflict, including the Korean and the Vietnam war is also part of the shaping of attitudes and behaviour. My wife is Chinese and knows far more about the atrocities visited upon China by Japanese forces, and which opened the way for the rise of Mao. Mrs Plum is pretty restrained in terms of condemning Japan, and she frequently praises the Japanese co workers she interacts with, but she still has a sense of suspicion and tension with regard to Japan sadly. The problem with regard to North Korea is that yes China has power, but not the influence many in the West would hope for, and China has a multitude of problems of it's own that taking responsibility for another country is not something they would do particularly willingly. It is understandable that we in the West see far east issues through our particular lens, but there are other perspectives too and Trump is reluctant, or possibly too stupid, to acknowledge that.
We have a narcissist president who as a billionaire is unlikely to understand or be used to people telling him no. Add to that he is now arguably the most powerful individual on the planet and will revel in that status.
I'm sure that he can be reigned in by advisors both political and military but that advice won't be able to stop him shooting from the lip.
Insulting Kim Jong-Un is a bad mistake. The dictator cannot be seen to allow such slights without losing face. He, his father and grandfather indoctrinated the North Korean people to hate the USA. He's lied to them by telling them that NK can destroy mainland USA. At some point if the insults and threats keep rolling in from Trump he will be expected by his people to do something. Trump is pushing Kim Jong-Un into a corner. Forcing a madman into a situation he's not in control of is not a good idea.
I'm still fully confident that nothing military will come of this current crisis but both leaders are acting in a way where just one small error by either side could be very costly.
I would have thought NK's citizens would not be told the content of Trump's tweets. I'm not sure losing face with his own citizens is a problem. I imagine the biggest threat comes from those in charge of the military who must be considering a coup before something really idiotic happens.
The North Koreans are indeed made aware of Trumps insults and threats. It's a propaganda dream for Kim Jong-Un. It reinforces the indoctrination that the USA is the great enemy.
I do agree that you would think that a military coup would be the ultimate outcome of this drama but KJU has culled his generals before and does not allow any to gain significant influence.
Are they told the exact content though, or the fact that NK's retaliation was to launch a flimsy tube into the sea?
Are they told of their dear leader, deified in their culture, being humiliated time and time again such as being called 'little rocket man'?
I was informed on Reddit that NK doesn't have quite as a big a threat to Seoul as maybe we think (using non-nuclear weapons).
To summarise - there are limited weapons pointed at Seoul (the big guns can't reach), that 25% of their artillery fails, that they can't afford to fire it all at Seoul anyway cos then they'd have no defence left, that ROK defences are well-poised to intercept a lot of it...
I tried looking into this, but only found a handful of sources. A HuffPo article insists Seoul could be levelled, but a US intelligence report to Congress wasn't quite as certain. Anybody know for sure what NK could actually do to the South?
I was informed on Reddit that NK doesn't have quite as a big a threat to Seoul as maybe we think (using non-nuclear weapons).
To summarise - there are limited weapons pointed at Seoul (the big guns can't reach), that 25% of their artillery fails, that they can't afford to fire it all at Seoul anyway cos then they'd have no defence left, that ROK defences are well-poised to intercept a lot of it...
I tried looking into this, but only found a handful of sources. A HuffPo article insists Seoul could be levelled, but a US intelligence report to Congress wasn't quite as certain. Anybody know for sure what NK could actually do to the South?
Ain't nobody ever 'informed' on Reddit
Yeah hit up AskScience and tell those guys they don't know shit, see how that goes down!
Reddit though full of decent threads is in UX terms ugly and horrible to use.
Yeah it's weird that it doesn't bother me. There are ways to access it differently (using RES, whatever that is) and mobile. But I got used to the shitty front end so happy with that.
But I digress - I shouldn't have used 'informed' rather than 'read' - I don't take Reddit comments at face value, but sometimes it's worth looking a little deeper. And it is a font of knowledge, if you can figure out how to use it wisely.
We have a narcissist president who as a billionaire is unlikely to understand or be used to people telling him no. Add to that he is now arguably the most powerful individual on the planet and will revel in that status.
I'm sure that he can be reigned in by advisors both political and military but that advice won't be able to stop him shooting from the lip.
Insulting Kim Jong-Un is a bad mistake. The dictator cannot be seen to allow such slights without losing face. He, his father and grandfather indoctrinated the North Korean people to hate the USA. He's lied to them by telling them that NK can destroy mainland USA. At some point if the insults and threats keep rolling in from Trump he will be expected by his people to do something. Trump is pushing Kim Jong-Un into a corner. Forcing a madman into a situation he's not in control of is not a good idea.
I'm still fully confident that nothing military will come of this current crisis but both leaders are acting in a way where just one small error by either side could be very costly.
I would have thought NK's citizens would not be told the content of Trump's tweets. I'm not sure losing face with his own citizens is a problem. I imagine the biggest threat comes from those in charge of the military who must be considering a coup before something really idiotic happens.
The North Koreans are indeed made aware of Trumps insults and threats. It's a propaganda dream for Kim Jong-Un. It reinforces the indoctrination that the USA is the great enemy.
I do agree that you would think that a military coup would be the ultimate outcome of this drama but KJU has culled his generals before and does not allow any to gain significant influence.
Are they told the exact content though, or the fact that NK's retaliation was to launch a flimsy tube into the sea?
Are they told of their dear leader, deified in their culture, being humiliated time and time again such as being called 'little rocket man'?
Ive tried looking for the clip with no success but I saw that NK tv spokesperson reading out the speech made by Trump where he called KJU "Rocket Man" and another where she had his tweets on a screen behind her.
I'm guessing that they take great delight in showing Trump as an aggressor. As for the launch into the sea well I'm not sure you can so easily dismiss it. It was a sucessful missile test and part of the nuclear programme.
We have a narcissist president who as a billionaire is unlikely to understand or be used to people telling him no. Add to that he is now arguably the most powerful individual on the planet and will revel in that status.
I'm sure that he can be reigned in by advisors both political and military but that advice won't be able to stop him shooting from the lip.
Insulting Kim Jong-Un is a bad mistake. The dictator cannot be seen to allow such slights without losing face. He, his father and grandfather indoctrinated the North Korean people to hate the USA. He's lied to them by telling them that NK can destroy mainland USA. At some point if the insults and threats keep rolling in from Trump he will be expected by his people to do something. Trump is pushing Kim Jong-Un into a corner. Forcing a madman into a situation he's not in control of is not a good idea.
I'm still fully confident that nothing military will come of this current crisis but both leaders are acting in a way where just one small error by either side could be very costly.
I would have thought NK's citizens would not be told the content of Trump's tweets. I'm not sure losing face with his own citizens is a problem. I imagine the biggest threat comes from those in charge of the military who must be considering a coup before something really idiotic happens.
The North Koreans are indeed made aware of Trumps insults and threats. It's a propaganda dream for Kim Jong-Un. It reinforces the indoctrination that the USA is the great enemy.
I do agree that you would think that a military coup would be the ultimate outcome of this drama but KJU has culled his generals before and does not allow any to gain significant influence.
Are they told the exact content though, or the fact that NK's retaliation was to launch a flimsy tube into the sea?
Are they told of their dear leader, deified in their culture, being humiliated time and time again such as being called 'little rocket man'?
Ive tried looking for the clip with no success but I saw that NK tv spokesperson reading out the speech made by Trump where he called KJU "Rocket Man" and another where she had his tweets on a screen behind her.
I'm guessing that they take great delight in showing Trump as an aggressor. As for the launch into the sea well I'm not sure you can so easily dismiss it. It was a sucessful missile test and part of the nuclear programme.
So the North Koreans have again launched a ballistic missile and this time they say it can reach all of continental USA. The missile launched was a new type of icbm and reached a confirmed altitude that would seem to confirm the claims made by Pyongyang.
I had thought the gap between the last launch and this one had meant that diplomacy was having an effect. It seems those hopes are in tatters. Where does this leave our security ?
So the North Koreans have again launched a ballistic missile and this time they say it can reach all of continental USA. The missile launched was a new type of icbm and reached a confirmed altitude that would seem to confirm the claims made by Pyongyang.
I had thought the gap between the last launch and this one had meant that diplomacy was having an effect. It seems those hopes are in tatters. Where does this leave our security ?
The key to this must surely lie with the Chinese. By fair means or foul they need to get heavily involved in seeking ways which will result in curtailing North Korean sabre rattling. USA need to find a way to ‘encourage’ Chinese intervention. After all, any escalation of conflict is right on their doorstep......for some reason or other, for many a year, they appear (at least on the face of it), not to be too concerned. Maybe some kind of trade embargoes against China may help to focus their mind set and bring them to the table.....pretty drastic I agree and also pretty much just wishful thinking on my part I suppose. Oh were it that easy!
The key to this must surely lie with the Chinese. By any means, foul or fare, they need to get heavily involved in curtailing North Korean sabre rattling.
I know I've said this before but I really think this situation suits them perfectly, all the attention on North Korea means they can carry on doing what they really want, their One Belt, One Road policy which will cement their place as the leading super power for generations to come.
That's before you even look at what's going on in a certain sea to the sth of a certain country "oh you want our help, best tell Vietnam/Malaysia/Japan to f*** off our islands then"
The key to this must surely lie with the Chinese. By any means, foul or fare, they need to get heavily involved in curtailing North Korean sabre rattling.
I know I've said this before but I really think this situation suits them perfectly, all the attention on North Korea means they can carry on doing what they really want, their One Belt, One Road policy which will cement their place as the leading super power for generations to come.
That's before you even look at what's going on in a certain sea to the sth of a certain country "oh you want our help, best tell Vietnam/Malaysia/Japan to f*** off our islands then"
Yup.....problems with my somewhat simplified solution right from the get go. The whole thing is an unholy mess and the Chinese are as inscrutable as ever. I just find it amazing how tight lipped they are over the whole issue.....so little reaction seems to come from them. Is it the same within China......what’s the average Chinese persons take on this and how does it differ from the Assembly’s official line.......if indeed they have one?
Comments
The rest of your points are spot on, there is a reason world leaders 'play the game' and don't just 'say what we're all thinking'. There are wider implications at play for the world as a whole.
I'm sure that he can be reigned in by advisors both political and military but that advice won't be able to stop him shooting from the lip.
Insulting Kim Jong-Un is a bad mistake. The dictator cannot be seen to allow such slights without losing face. He, his father and grandfather indoctrinated the North Korean people to hate the USA. He's lied to them by telling them that NK can destroy mainland USA. At some point if the insults and threats keep rolling in from Trump he will be expected by his people to do something. Trump is pushing Kim Jong-Un into a corner. Forcing a madman into a situation he's not in control of is not a good idea.
I'm still fully confident that nothing military will come of this current crisis but both leaders are acting in a way where just one small error by either side could be very costly.
I don't understand why they wouldn't/couldn't if they needed to.
Japan is a very different country now.
The current Japanese leadership is seemingly trying to change the position and re-militarise Japan. (Although clearly the so-called Self-Defence Forces already have some "war potential".)
Japan might be a different country but the hatred from the Chinese towards Japanese is on a level I've never experienced anywhere else before.
I'm also not sure it is that different, they still deny the atrocities of WW2 and refuse to apologize, protests are still regularly staged around South East Asia against Japan.
I do agree that you would think that a military coup would be the ultimate outcome of this drama but KJU has culled his generals before and does not allow any to gain significant influence.
My wife is Chinese and knows far more about the atrocities visited upon China by Japanese forces, and which opened the way for the rise of Mao. Mrs Plum is pretty restrained in terms of condemning Japan, and she frequently praises the Japanese co workers she interacts with, but she still has a sense of suspicion and tension with regard to Japan sadly.
The problem with regard to North Korea is that yes China has power, but not the influence many in the West would hope for, and China has a multitude of problems of it's own that taking responsibility for another country is not something they would do particularly willingly.
It is understandable that we in the West see far east issues through our particular lens, but there are other perspectives too and Trump is reluctant, or possibly too stupid, to acknowledge that.
Are they told of their dear leader, deified in their culture, being humiliated time and time again such as being called 'little rocket man'?
Ain't nobody ever 'informed' on Reddit
But I digress - I shouldn't have used 'informed' rather than 'read' - I don't take Reddit comments at face value, but sometimes it's worth looking a little deeper. And it is a font of knowledge, if you can figure out how to use it wisely.
I'm guessing that they take great delight in showing Trump as an aggressor. As for the launch into the sea well I'm not sure you can so easily dismiss it. It was a sucessful missile test and part of the nuclear programme.
No
Let's see what the morning brings ramp it up trumpy I am bored
I had thought the gap between the last launch and this one had meant that diplomacy was having an effect. It seems those hopes are in tatters. Where does this leave our security ?
By fair means or foul they need to get heavily involved in seeking ways which will result in curtailing North Korean sabre rattling.
USA need to find a way to ‘encourage’ Chinese intervention. After all, any escalation of conflict is right on their doorstep......for some reason or other, for many a year, they appear (at least on the face of it), not to be too concerned.
Maybe some kind of trade embargoes against China may help to focus their mind set and bring them to the table.....pretty drastic I agree and also pretty much just wishful thinking on my part I suppose.
Oh were it that easy!
“The US missile interceptors based in Alaska and California are assessed to have a 25 percent chance of a head-on collision with the attacking missile, but most experts believe the true performance to be much lower,” Dr. Bruce Blair, a former nuclear launch control officer turned anti-proliferation activist, said in a statement.
Balls.
That's before you even look at what's going on in a certain sea to the sth of a certain country "oh you want our help, best tell Vietnam/Malaysia/Japan to f*** off our islands then"
The whole thing is an unholy mess and the Chinese are as inscrutable as ever.
I just find it amazing how tight lipped they are over the whole issue.....so little reaction seems to come from them.
Is it the same within China......what’s the average Chinese persons take on this and how does it differ from the Assembly’s official line.......if indeed they have one?