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Grand National 2026

PeanutsMolloy
PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,760
edited January 17 in Other Football and Sports

Eyes down, it’s that time again.

Entries for this season's Big One due in just over a week (weights allocated mid-Feb, as usual) but there's reason right now to begin serious evaluation of likely entries and, if the fancy takes, nab some early prices.

Next Thursday sees the 2026 Thyestes at Gowran Park and there’s a few potential GN contenders among the entries.

Last year's race, for the first time since its inception in 1988, produced the Aintree winner in Nick Rockett but, barring a prior couple of 6th places, it's been a poor pointer to same-season Aintree success, with the winner typically handed a badly-timed hike in mark.

Indeed, even after a follow-up in the Bobbyjo, Nick R's +11lb hike in GN mark from his winning Thyestes OR prompted 99.9% of GN trend-followers (including this one) to put a line through his Aintree chance.

But Nick R continued the dominance of 1st/2nd season chasers (10 of last 11 winners from 26% of runners) and, almost inevitably, year-by-year those old racing CV pointers for the GN have become increasingly unreliable, particularly since the reduced field-size.

In contrast, on my model’s assessment of his pedigree alone, Nick R had rated among those with Strong Place Potential and, since its introduction to the model a few years back, it’s consistently been a decent predictor, with only Grangeclare West of the first 6 home last time representing an outlier.

Having reconciled him, the 2026 model is ready to roll out of the hangar and the pedigree slide rule’s already been run over the highest-rated 50 or so mooted GN entries. As it happens, 5 of the “Long List” passing the model’s Pedigree Screen (to differing degrees), have been entered for Gowran.

2nd Season Chasers (in order of GN Pedigree strength):

  • High Class Hero [8/1 for the Thyestes] now best price 40/1 for the GN, close 3rd in April’s Bet365 (as was Nick Rockett a year before his GN win)
  • Search For Glory [14/1] 66/1, possessing the GN-outperforming mtDNA N2a
  • Answer To Kayf [9/1] 50/1, winner of November’s Troytown and also with the N2a mtDNA

Of the more seasoned chasers, other than I Am Maximus, the strongest GN pedigree belongs to Spanish Harlem [20/1], GN 50/1, now in his 3rd season over fences and one that I’ve been sweet on for a GN ever since he lined up for the 2024 Scottish GN (a not-stopping 8L 6th). 2L adrift of High Class Hero in that Bet365 Gold Cup, lack of jumping fluency has been his anchor but that’s less an issue with today’s GN and I’m not surprised by Willie Mullins’ comments post his Kerry National win in September: “we'd love to produce him for the Randox Grand National at Aintree”.

Last of the 5 in terms of pedigree strength, but nonetheless of interest, is another in his 3rd season chasing, Now Is The Hour [12/1] and 66/1; though he’s got to lift his mark to line up at Aintree. A win on Thursday would certainly do it.

Any of these 5 could end up on on my Aintree team, though I currently reckon most likely to do so are:

HIGH CLASS HERO and SPANISH HARLEM (both already backed each-way at 50/1).

I’ve also got an Exchange win interest in SEARCH FOR GLORY at nicely north of 100.

Interesting to see which of these are declared for Thursday and, naturally, a lot more to come here on April’s race in due course.

Comments

  • MrOneLung
    MrOneLung Posts: 27,201
    And we’re off. 

    Cheers Peanuts. 
  • bobmunro
    bobmunro Posts: 21,175
    In the deep mid-winter there are early signs of renewal. The birds are singing more, tiny buds begin to appear in the hedgerows, the early sprouts of daffodil and crocus leaves starting to break the ground,  the hours of daylight slowly begin to lengthen, and the sound of Sir Peanuts Malloy dusting off volumes of Timeform! 

    Spring has sprung!
  • Starinnaddick
    Starinnaddick Posts: 4,416
    It was announced the other week that this year it has changed to 72 hour declarations and 6 reserves. 
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,760
    bobmunro said:
    In the deep mid-winter there are early signs of renewal. The birds are singing more, tiny buds begin to appear in the hedgerows, the early sprouts of daffodil and crocus leaves starting to break the ground,  the hours of daylight slowly begin to lengthen, and the sound of Sir Peanuts Malloy dusting off volumes of Timeform! 

    Spring has sprung!
    Timeform, Schmimeform……pah
  • CHG
    CHG Posts: 4,537
    Yes Peanuts…here we go!
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,760
    edited January 17
    Gamble landed in the Peter Marsh at Haydock today with Imperial Saint filling punters' pockets.
    Just 3.5L covered the first 4 home (Richmond Lake, Konfusion and Myretown), with Johnnywho a further 6L adrift and Royal Pagaille tailed off.
    Myretown was barely off the bridle, leading and looking good 3 out when he clattered an open ditch and never recovered the ground. Falling in the Hennessy, he's disappointed after his thumping Ultima victory and is out to 33s for the GN. 
    At OR142 today, he'll be touch and go to make the cut at Aintree and, in any event, his mtDNA L2b1 is a no-no for me. None of the others with the required marks tick enough boxes.
  • Athletico Charlton
    Athletico Charlton Posts: 14,508
    edited January 17
    Is Quai de bourbon likely to enter? Showing any promise?, I beleive you suggested that horse last year.  I got on High Class Hero at 50/1 about a year ago albeit a small bet.
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,760
    edited January 17
    Is Quai de bourbon likely to enter? Any promise, I beleive you suggested that horse last year.
    I would imagine he will be entered and I did indeed.
    He was a decent 3rd in the Irish GN and the first cut of the new model rated him a little higher than it does now (post-tweaking). Certainly still consistent with frame-making but a tad short of winning potential, by my current reckoning. 
    I cashed out my early e/w on him but, a course winner at Gowran, he could well score on Thursday, assuming his Troytown PU was an aberration.  
    Will probably come back to bite me in the derriere on 11 April.
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,760
    edited January 18
    Is Quai de bourbon likely to enter? Any promise, I beleive you suggested that horse last year.
    I would imagine he will be entered and I did indeed.
    He was a decent 3rd in the Irish GN and the first cut of the new model rated him a little higher than it does now (post-tweaking). Certainly still consistent with frame-making but a tad short of winning potential, by my current reckoning. 
    I cashed out my early e/w on him but, a course winner at Gowran, he could well score on Thursday, assuming his Troytown PU was an aberration.  
    Will probably come back to bite me in the derriere on 11 April.
    I guess what I’m saying is that Quai De Bourbon now falls into that Senior Chief camp of last year that (according to my model) has the profile be there or thereabouts but may or may not make it onto my team depending on who else is lining up and odds.
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,760
    edited January 19
    A confidence-restoring run from Resplendent Grey (plugging on 4L 2nd to Protektorat, to whom he was conceding 4lbs) at Windsor yesterday, after his tame effort in the Hennessy. 
    The Gold Cup's surely over-optimistic but, with a 4 week gap to Aintree this year, the Ultima would be both a very winnable target and a workable prep for a tilt at the Big One.
    Saw out the 3.5m Bet365 trip on quickish ground in good fashion last April and both breeding (he's from the family of Red Rum and by GN-winning sire Walk In The Park) and Spring form (4 wins and 2 places from 6 runs in April and early May - his dam's and his two winning siblings' best form is on spring and summer ground) suggest he could be, alongside Iroko, the strongest of the home-team challengers.
    Taken an e/w position at 40s.


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  • Is Quai de bourbon likely to enter? Any promise, I beleive you suggested that horse last year.
    I would imagine he will be entered and I did indeed.
    He was a decent 3rd in the Irish GN and the first cut of the new model rated him a little higher than it does now (post-tweaking). Certainly still consistent with frame-making but a tad short of winning potential, by my current reckoning. 
    I cashed out my early e/w on him but, a course winner at Gowran, he could well score on Thursday, assuming his Troytown PU was an aberration.  
    Will probably come back to bite me in the derriere on 11 April.
    I guess what I’m saying is that Quai De Bourbon now falls into that Senior Chief camp of last year that (according to my model) has the profile be there or thereabouts but may or may not make it onto my team depending on who else is lining up and odds.
    Cool. Thanks. I will leave my very small e/w bet riding I think then (it was a reinvestment of about 1.25% of my winnings on your tips last yr!). 
  • Lincsaddick
    Lincsaddick Posts: 32,545
    Haiti Couleurs ? .. runs in the Irish Gold Cup on 31/1 .. demon in the 'mini' Nationals .. will it be entered ?
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,760
    Haiti Couleurs ? .. runs in the Irish Gold Cup on 31/1 .. demon in the 'mini' Nationals .. will it be entered ?
    Triffic chaser, obviously, but my model doesn’t fancy him for an Aintree GN.