Savings and Investments thread
Comments
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I like that!PragueAddick said:I don't know why this got into my head this afternoon, but I decided to ask Claude AI this question:
If a British person aged 70 at the end of 2024, had started smoking aged 18, consistently smoking 20 cigarettes a day, how much would this have cost them overall (calculation adjusted for general inflation over the whole period? And if this person had never started smoking, but instead invested the same amount as the cost of the cigarettes in a general UK equity market fund, how much would his investment be worth today?
Answer:Summary
I've calculated both scenarios for someone born in 1954 who smoked 20 cigarettes daily from age 18 (1972) until age 70 (2024):
Total Cost of Cigarettes (Inflation-Adjusted)
£155,171 in 2024 purchasing power
This is what they actually spent on cigarettes when you adjust all those historical costs for inflation. The nominal amount paid over 52 years was £87,567, but in today's money that represents £155,171.
Value if Invested in UK Equities
£511,596
Had they instead invested that same nominal amount each year into a UK equity market fund (FTSE All-Share with dividends reinvested), their portfolio would be worth approximately £511,596 today.
The Bottom Line
- Lost opportunity: £356,425
- The investment would have grown to 3.3 times the inflation-adjusted cost of smoking
- That's the difference between having spent £155k (in real terms) and having £512k in assets
This calculation includes investing through all the major market crashes (1973-74, 1987, 2000-02, 2008-09, 2020) and uses actual historical UK equity returns with dividends reinvested. The stark reality is that early, consistent investing - even in relatively modest amounts - combined with compound returns over five decades creates substantial wealth.
This analysis doesn't even account for the additional costs of smoking - healthcare expenses, higher insurance premiums, lost income from illness, or reduced life expectancy.
One of these finfluencers (bell ends on LinkedIn/Tiktok) did some thing where he showed you what your $6 a day Starbucks coffee would be worth over 5 years of every day you invested $6 in Starbucks stock rather than buying a coffee, similar to what you've done here. It was staggering and actually made me think!0 -
The fact is, that at macro level, DC pensions in payment deliver minuscule tax revenue to the Exchequer. Current pensions in payment are, I would guess, 90% paid by the public sector and legacy corporate final salary schemes.bobmunro said:Dippenhall said:Rachel in Accounts is keen to tell us how generous the Government is paying away £27bn in pensions tax relief on contributions. This sound bite is no doubt to justify ending the anomaly of salary sacrifice avoiding NI contributions.But what Rachel and the general public seem uneducated about is that pensions tax relief is tax DEFERRAL. You pay income tax not only on the original contribution but all the investment growth you accrue as well as the invested tax relief - as and when you draw your pot as income in retirement. You can produce numbers showing many will pay more income tax on their pension than received in tax relief.So when you hear the sob story about excessive tax giveaways for pension savers, I suggest you contact Rachel and ask how much tax HMRC collect from pensions in payments. I have been fobbed off in the past when asking this question.
It’s a classic case of Govt misrepresenting the facts and solving short term cash flow problems with decisions that increase today’s tax revenue at the expense of tomorrow’s tax revenue while reducing savings and pensioner prosperity.
Higher rate tax relief on contributions is also not a giveaway for the same reason - the tax relief is invested and taxed when paid out as part of the higher pension it produces. The more the higher paid are encouraged to save the bigger their pensions and more likely to be taxed at the higher rate. The policies of penalising tax relief for higher earners is lunacy in terms of encouraging savings and its wider and long term negative impact.Some of that I agree with.However, most 45% tax payers will not max out on pension contributions as in reality with the tapering the max that really high earners can put in now is £10k a year. They will use other financial instruments e.g. they will likely have pretty big investments in ISAs between a couple. In retirement they will draw on those other tax free investments and restrict drawings from DC pensions so that their taxable income in retirement stays below or not much above c£50k and pay tax at 20(22)% or certainly the bulk of it at basic rate, yet all of their pension contributions, especially prior to tapering came in, attracted 45% relief. So not all tax deferral!So there is a lag between Govt giving the tax relief and receiving tax on pension payments. My point is that this lag allows tax relief to be seen as a one-off tax giveaway. Regardless of the level of tax mitigation through planning, it is a tax deferral system, not a tax giveaway system - say like the company bike schemes.My point is that the correlation between (1) the cost of PAST tax reliefs on PAST contributions and (2) the tax revenues when those contributions emerge as taxable income, should inform the view on what is a fair pension tax relief policy, not the Govt’s short term budget constraints. In the past, the benefit to society by encouraging pension saving with tax incentives was well understood, and the salary sacrifice loop hole only exists I think as a nod to the idea of increasing pensions saving. But pensions are now a political football and so salary sacrifice is now in the game.Instead of suppressing tax reliefs to reduce short-term Exchequer outflows, the system needs simplification. It would provide a boost to genuine pensions savings, and reduce State pension dependency, by having no limit on pension funding, save a nominal monetary limit as was introduced with the first tax “simplification” (£240,000?). In return, remove potential arbitrage by applying 20% tax relief for all tax payers. Tax on pensions could be a stand-alone rate of 20% in this scenario.In my view, the 25% tax free lump sum benefit is illogical, it encourages people to make a decision based solely on avoiding tax, not financial needs. Its origins lay in the Public Sector, where it was an add-on benefit to a pension, not an option between cash and a pension and would not object at all to its removal to permit simplification.1 -
Yeah it's the same pot of money for the appraisal calculation. You either do option A, in this case smoke it, or option B invest it. Both have returns (in a sense) but are assumed to do one or the other.PragueAddick said:
Wish I hadn’t now🤣 Basically he says we are double counting. I think I get it. As a non- smoker I would still have had to find the same amount of money to put into investment as the smoker who does for his fags.PragueAddick said:
I must say that that’s what i thought too. I will ask Claude…IdleHans said:
Good point. But setting aside the pleasure of smoking, you'd now be £667K better off if you hadn't smoked and had instead invested. And there would surely be some enjoyment derived from watching your investment increase...cantersaddick said:
No, its assumed you got some level of utility from purchasing the cigarettes therefore they are a benefit and on the same side of the scales. The opportunity cost being the difference between that and the greater benefit of investing the cash.IdleHans said:Possibly I'm being thick here, but wouldn't the lost opportunity be the difference between the positive equity value and the cost (negative) of the cigarettes, or 511,596 PLUS 155,171 so 666,767?
Of course to a non-smoker the idea of getting utility from buying cigarettes seems a bit odd!
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On the tax free sum, it doesn’t have to be in a lump, many people in flex drawdown don’t take a lump sum but simply take 25% on each and every drawdown as tax free.Dippenhall said:
The fact is, that at macro level, DC pensions in payment deliver minuscule tax revenue to the Exchequer. Current pensions in payment are, I would guess, 90% paid by the public sector and legacy corporate final salary schemes.bobmunro said:Dippenhall said:Rachel in Accounts is keen to tell us how generous the Government is paying away £27bn in pensions tax relief on contributions. This sound bite is no doubt to justify ending the anomaly of salary sacrifice avoiding NI contributions.But what Rachel and the general public seem uneducated about is that pensions tax relief is tax DEFERRAL. You pay income tax not only on the original contribution but all the investment growth you accrue as well as the invested tax relief - as and when you draw your pot as income in retirement. You can produce numbers showing many will pay more income tax on their pension than received in tax relief.So when you hear the sob story about excessive tax giveaways for pension savers, I suggest you contact Rachel and ask how much tax HMRC collect from pensions in payments. I have been fobbed off in the past when asking this question.
It’s a classic case of Govt misrepresenting the facts and solving short term cash flow problems with decisions that increase today’s tax revenue at the expense of tomorrow’s tax revenue while reducing savings and pensioner prosperity.
Higher rate tax relief on contributions is also not a giveaway for the same reason - the tax relief is invested and taxed when paid out as part of the higher pension it produces. The more the higher paid are encouraged to save the bigger their pensions and more likely to be taxed at the higher rate. The policies of penalising tax relief for higher earners is lunacy in terms of encouraging savings and its wider and long term negative impact.Some of that I agree with.However, most 45% tax payers will not max out on pension contributions as in reality with the tapering the max that really high earners can put in now is £10k a year. They will use other financial instruments e.g. they will likely have pretty big investments in ISAs between a couple. In retirement they will draw on those other tax free investments and restrict drawings from DC pensions so that their taxable income in retirement stays below or not much above c£50k and pay tax at 20(22)% or certainly the bulk of it at basic rate, yet all of their pension contributions, especially prior to tapering came in, attracted 45% relief. So not all tax deferral!So there is a lag between Govt giving the tax relief and receiving tax on pension payments. My point is that this lag allows tax relief to be seen as a one-off tax giveaway. Regardless of the level of tax mitigation through planning, it is a tax deferral system, not a tax giveaway system - say like the company bike schemes.My point is that the correlation between (1) the cost of PAST tax reliefs on PAST contributions and (2) the tax revenues when those contributions emerge as taxable income, should inform the view on what is a fair pension tax relief policy, not the Govt’s short term budget constraints. In the past, the benefit to society by encouraging pension saving with tax incentives was well understood, and the salary sacrifice loop hole only exists I think as a nod to the idea of increasing pensions saving. But pensions are now a political football and so salary sacrifice is now in the game.Instead of suppressing tax reliefs to reduce short-term Exchequer outflows, the system needs simplification. It would provide a boost to genuine pensions savings, and reduce State pension dependency, by having no limit on pension funding, save a nominal monetary limit as was introduced with the first tax “simplification” (£240,000?). In return, remove potential arbitrage by applying 20% tax relief for all tax payers. Tax on pensions could be a stand-alone rate of 20% in this scenario.In my view, the 25% tax free lump sum benefit is illogical, it encourages people to make a decision based solely on avoiding tax, not financial needs. Its origins lay in the Public Sector, where it was an add-on benefit to a pension, not an option between cash and a pension and would not object at all to its removal to permit simplification.1 -
Well obviously I’m no expert, after buying in at £17.71 I saw them fall to £16.75 within 48 hours. Then this morning with the announcement of a new CEO Dave Lewis (Former Tesco boss) the shares have gone to £18:50. I’m in PROFITRaplhMilne said:I will get my coat……. ! DIAGEO down 6% on trading results or £1.23 on the day. I gambled on the Trading statement and called it wrong. Although now possibly an even better buying opportunity ?3 -
Government shutdown being over looks like it’s going to give the markets the next leg up.3
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Futures look strong.Diebythesword said:Government shutdown being over looks like it’s going to give the markets the next leg up.0 -
So do we think the upcoming budget will have some meaningful elements that reward some and penalise others or is the constant speculation and ‘kite flying’ just that ?
In the absence (it seems) of rumours being more consistent to soften the blow when landing I fear it will just be another round of tweaks and twiddles only.0 -
I would hazard a guess at a bit more than just tweaks & twiddles.valleynick66 said:So do we think the upcoming budget will have some meaningful elements that reward some and penalise others or is the constant speculation and ‘kite flying’ just that ?
In the absence (it seems) of rumours being more consistent to soften the blow when landing I fear it will just be another round of tweaks and twiddles only.
Cant see too many winners & a lot more losers.2 -
I agree with this, I think it's going to be a hammer blow to anyone that isn't considered a "working person" ie anyone who earns over £50k a year.golfaddick said:
I would hazard a guess at a bit more than just tweaks & twiddles.valleynick66 said:So do we think the upcoming budget will have some meaningful elements that reward some and penalise others or is the constant speculation and ‘kite flying’ just that ?
In the absence (it seems) of rumours being more consistent to soften the blow when landing I fear it will just be another round of tweaks and twiddles only.
Cant see too many winners & a lot more losers.
I think there is going to be a lot of complaints around "fairness" with triple lock/PIP etc going forward.0 -
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I think Reeves would like to make the necessary cuts to certain budgets to try and ballance the books.
But her back benchers will resist this and Starmer will not stand up to them and back her.
This will leave her with little option but another round of tax increases.
It's going to be painful I'm sure.0 -
Debt interest is crippling us. Almost £125bn paid for 2024-25 financial year, nearly 10% of government expenditure. Doesn’t matter who is in charge, they need to tackle that and it needs a combination of tax rises and cuts elsewhere. It would be lovely if the big corporations who pay a lower rate of tax than most of us, would actually pay their fair share towards the upkeep of the society that they make their profits from 🤷🏻♂️4
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Back in the day I don't remember Budgets being based on what backbenchers might think. Maybe they were ? Did Nigel Lawson or Geoffrey Howe worry about them ?blackpool72 said:I think Reeves would like to make the necessary cuts to certain budgets to try and ballance the books.
But her back benchers will resist this and Starmer will not stand up to them and back her.
This will leave her with little option but another round of tax increases.
It's going to be painful I'm sure.
I thought having a big majority was meant to help a Govenment get their policies through Parliament.....not hinder them 🤔🙄0 -
golfaddick said:
Back in the day I don't remember Budgets being based on what backbenchers might think. Maybe they were ? Did Nigel Lawson or Geoffrey Howe worry about them ?blackpool72 said:I think Reeves would like to make the necessary cuts to certain budgets to try and ballance the books.
But her back benchers will resist this and Starmer will not stand up to them and back her.
This will leave her with little option but another round of tax increases.
It's going to be painful I'm sure.
I thought having a big majority was meant to help a Govenment get their policies through Parliament.....not hinder them 🤔🙄Labour are a broad church and in reality at least two distinct groupings - the tories back in the day did what Thatcher told them to do!We need to cut public spending, especially on out of work disability benefits that are becoming unsustainable, if not already. Force it through and if the backbenchers revolt it still shouldn't be enough to lose a vote.2







