Nathan Jones speculation - Cawley says indications are no chance Jones going to Cardiff (p20)

Addick Addict said:

Off_it said:

PaddyP17 said:

Off_it said:

Addick Addict said:

shine166 said:

Red_Chester said:

carly burn said:

1/2 Now with most bookies.

Just searched to see if anyone has odds up for our next manager and all I saw was when Jones was appointed for us he was 1/2 “which implies a 66% chance of it happening”….gulp

Have we suddenly decided that bookies are in the know and made a choice to completely ignore the fact that odds are dictated by where the money is being placed?  

Have we suddenly ignored the fact that bookies love nothing better than to shorten managers to unrealistic odds i.e. relevant to the chances of that individual actually signing on the dotted line? Try phoning them up, asking for £10,000 at the advertised price of 10/1 only for them to let you have £100 on at that price and then to cut it to 2/1. Then, following all those tenners that they've allowed at 2/1 he's then 1/2. And they can take even more at that price AND offer Ramsey at 6/4 so even if one of them gets the job they make a profit. But guess what happens next? Another left field candidate is announced and his odds plummet to 1/2 and all those "in the know" can lump on again.

I'm not saying that Jones isn't a candidate. What I am saying is that the odds on offer are not representative of his chances of getting the job. Because if he was that certain they wouldn't even be offering a price on him. 

Edit - And no sooner had I typed that than Jones is 6/1 and fifth favourite and Ramsey is 3/1. Fill your boots, for the benefit of those nice bookies, on Buckingham at 2/5 but try making a profit having already backed Jones at 1/2 or even Ramsey at 6/4.

You seem to have misunderstood how running a book works. It's not about being "right" all the time, it's about making money. 

If people put enough money on you getting the Cardiff job then your odds would shorten. Not because you're in with a shout, but because that's just how it works.

AA is one of like four posters on Charlton Life, alongside bobmunro, Peanuts and PolzeathNick, about whom making this suggestion that they don't understand running a book is going to be totally inaccurate btw

Well if that's the case then it makes the comment even stranger, doesn't it? Unless he was trying to explain the obvious to those who can't grasp it, I guess? That would probably make sense.

In which case I'll offer you 2/1 he doesn't succeed!
;-)

I was but clearly failed miserably. Bookmaking isn't just about money layed on a particular candidate forcing the price down. It's also about getting people to back a candidate at the wrong price which is what I said about Jones being 1/2 and Ramsey being 6/4 in the same book. Buckingham is now 2/5. Not because bookies have taken millions at much bigger prices but because they want some people to back Jones at 1/2, others to back Ramsey at 6/4 and then others to back Buckingham at 2/5. 

You can have whatever you like on a Premier League win market because all information is in the public domain but any market where someone has potentially information that they aren't party to will be restricted or closed. The people that have their accounts closed by bookies are those that are backing selections at a price that represents value. Those that consistently back horses when prices first go up, for example, the night before that then shorten drastically the next day. Those that are at a cricket match before play starts and sees the boundary is really short one side so back overs on 6s. Or those dirty arbers who see an opportunity to back something with them and then lay it on Betfair.

Somebody mentioning in the press a selection is heaven for the bookies. Their PR man is wheeled out and you hear those words "we've seen good money for xxxxx". Do they ever tell you how much they've taken? Of course, they don't but it's a way of getting more money in at the wrong price AND it gives free publicity to the bookmaker with the associated national coverage. 

One final point. If the price of a manager is a direct reflection of the liabilities that they have on that candidate, how come they all go the same price on that candidate and each and every other one? They can't have all taken exactly the same money on those selections. Can they? 

https://www.bettingodds.com/thesackrace/teams/cardiff-city

 

AFKABartram said:

STOP TALKING ABOUT MILLWALL FFS

Alwaysneil said:

Is it just me who starts reading the word speculation and whose brain finishes it as speculum? 

TheHerminator said:

Alwaysneil said:

Is it just me who starts reading the word speculation and whose brain finishes it as speculum? 

Has speculum been written on CL before do we reckon? 

Woodwork said:

Airman Brown said:

Woodwork said:

DOUCHER said:

Woodwork said:

Northern_Monkey said:

I’d be surprised if he went. The lure of Mansfield, Lincoln and the like vs the games in Championship doesn’t seem compelling, even as a fan. He has said the board are supportive, the fans are behind him, so why do that when he could always consider at a different time when further along with us?

If he does go that would probably sound alarm bells with the backing being given.

Playing devil’s advocate… Jones wasn’t happy with how quickly a significant amount of fans turned on him, before even half the season was out. In fact, he seemed fuming. So he may think that if things start to look sticky again, he’ll be turned on again.   

on that basis, no wonder he turned millwall down then and went to us despite being in a division lower - won't be surprised if he takes an assistants role at footscray lions girls under 9's    

Having spent a lot of time at both The Valley and The Den, I actually think Millwall fans are more patient. They are certainly less entitled. I think that is what upset Jones. Charlton have spent the majority of the 21st Century playing League One football, & finished in its lowest position since having to apply for reelection in 1926. Yet despite not being out of touch of the play-offs, fans turned on him. Despite him having to rebuild squad & the whole club after a decade or more of neglect. 

I think the difference is, when Millwall fans turn on you, they really turn on you. And they also tend to turn on the players more often than the manager. I think that is because they think players should give their all, no matter who the manager is or how bad he is. 

@Henry Irving  is this okay with you, sir? As I replied to a direct post. Doff my cap etc etc 

In the 25 years since the millennium, Charlton have spent seven years in the PL, seven in the Championship, 11 in League One. So not a majority of the 21 century at all. 

I can’t be bothered to work out average league position for Charlton and Millwall but my guess is that over your chosen time frame there’s not much in it. 

I said Charlton have spent the majority of it playing League One football. Sorry, I should have been clearer. I meant that the division Charlton have spent the most time playing in, out of the four divisions (in the 21st century), is League One. 

So from Jones’ pov, it probably did seem a bit extreme how quickly fans turned on him. Especially if you look at how Charlton have performed since 2009 (that’s 16 years!!). He came in after the club had finished in its lowest position since 1926. And with the club having a reputation for being a bit of a long running basket-case club to outsiders. To get absolute pelters in the middle of the huge task of turning the club around must have seemed crazy to him. 

PragueAddick said:

carly burn said:

I've already signed up for an annual subscription. I'm sure it will be a very good read but more importantly it will help to fund the best antidote we have to the sort of twats whose "content" has been responsible for this entire ridiculous thread.

If you can afford it, please do the same.