Nathan Jones speculation - Cawley says indications are no chance Jones going to Cardiff (p20)

bobmunro said:

Carter said:

If he were to go it would be a truly mental move. Cardiff are a mess and aren't close to bottoming out. 

I can see a few reasons why he would take it, and they are not to be discounted as he is a really passionate man and makes zero bones about it. I think he will stay, things can change fast in football as we can all attest to and we might be shite next season, sign a load of players that don't fancy the high intensity work rate Nathan Jones expects and he decides enough is enough and to earn a load of money saving Cardiffs bacon next season, they are going to be worth a punt to double drop in my eyes. There is a world where the stars align, we sack NJ, Cardiff are bottom 5 and it all works out. I hope not 

With Jones having the final say on who we sign, I very much doubt that will happen. Seems to me that he is a pretty good judge of character.

PaddyP17 said:

Off_it said:

Addick Addict said:

shine166 said:

Red_Chester said:

carly burn said:

1/2 Now with most bookies.

Just searched to see if anyone has odds up for our next manager and all I saw was when Jones was appointed for us he was 1/2 “which implies a 66% chance of it happening”….gulp

Have we suddenly decided that bookies are in the know and made a choice to completely ignore the fact that odds are dictated by where the money is being placed?  

Have we suddenly ignored the fact that bookies love nothing better than to shorten managers to unrealistic odds i.e. relevant to the chances of that individual actually signing on the dotted line? Try phoning them up, asking for £10,000 at the advertised price of 10/1 only for them to let you have £100 on at that price and then to cut it to 2/1. Then, following all those tenners that they've allowed at 2/1 he's then 1/2. And they can take even more at that price AND offer Ramsey at 6/4 so even if one of them gets the job they make a profit. But guess what happens next? Another left field candidate is announced and his odds plummet to 1/2 and all those "in the know" can lump on again.

I'm not saying that Jones isn't a candidate. What I am saying is that the odds on offer are not representative of his chances of getting the job. Because if he was that certain they wouldn't even be offering a price on him. 

Edit - And no sooner had I typed that than Jones is 6/1 and fifth favourite and Ramsey is 3/1. Fill your boots, for the benefit of those nice bookies, on Buckingham at 2/5 but try making a profit having already backed Jones at 1/2 or even Ramsey at 6/4.

You seem to have misunderstood how running a book works. It's not about being "right" all the time, it's about making money. 

If people put enough money on you getting the Cardiff job then your odds would shorten. Not because you're in with a shout, but because that's just how it works.

AA is one of like four posters on Charlton Life, alongside bobmunro, Peanuts and PolzeathNick, about whom making this suggestion that they don't understand running a book is going to be totally inaccurate btw

Chris_from_Sidcup said:

TheHerminator said:

Jesus CL loves a melt down. This one is up there for me

Wait until our away allocation for Millwall is reduced to 900 and they all go to Valley Gold.............

Everyone will get Millwall flu anyway and we'll struggle to sell out the top tier.

Marriott110 said:

Braziliance said:

bobmunro said:

Carter said:

If he were to go it would be a truly mental move. Cardiff are a mess and aren't close to bottoming out. 

I can see a few reasons why he would take it, and they are not to be discounted as he is a really passionate man and makes zero bones about it. I think he will stay, things can change fast in football as we can all attest to and we might be shite next season, sign a load of players that don't fancy the high intensity work rate Nathan Jones expects and he decides enough is enough and to earn a load of money saving Cardiffs bacon next season, they are going to be worth a punt to double drop in my eyes. There is a world where the stars align, we sack NJ, Cardiff are bottom 5 and it all works out. I hope not 

With Jones having the final say on who we sign, I very much doubt that will happen. Seems to me that he is a pretty good judge of character.

I will die on the hill Gass gets way more stick than he deserves, but to say he's a bad character because he didn't play well when nobody in our attack did pre December is quite unfair to him

Now we know it's silly season. Could be the nicest bloke on earth but he's still a terrible footballer.

Braziliance said:

Marriott110 said:

Braziliance said:

bobmunro said:

Carter said:

If he were to go it would be a truly mental move. Cardiff are a mess and aren't close to bottoming out. 

I can see a few reasons why he would take it, and they are not to be discounted as he is a really passionate man and makes zero bones about it. I think he will stay, things can change fast in football as we can all attest to and we might be shite next season, sign a load of players that don't fancy the high intensity work rate Nathan Jones expects and he decides enough is enough and to earn a load of money saving Cardiffs bacon next season, they are going to be worth a punt to double drop in my eyes. There is a world where the stars align, we sack NJ, Cardiff are bottom 5 and it all works out. I hope not 

With Jones having the final say on who we sign, I very much doubt that will happen. Seems to me that he is a pretty good judge of character.

I will die on the hill Gass gets way more stick than he deserves, but to say he's a bad character because he didn't play well when nobody in our attack did pre December is quite unfair to him

Now we know it's silly season. Could be the nicest bloke on earth but he's still a terrible footballer.

But not because of a bad attitude, he worked hard, he just wasn’t good enough.

Off_it said:

PaddyP17 said:

Off_it said:

Addick Addict said:

shine166 said:

Red_Chester said:

carly burn said:

1/2 Now with most bookies.

Just searched to see if anyone has odds up for our next manager and all I saw was when Jones was appointed for us he was 1/2 “which implies a 66% chance of it happening”….gulp

Have we suddenly decided that bookies are in the know and made a choice to completely ignore the fact that odds are dictated by where the money is being placed?  

Have we suddenly ignored the fact that bookies love nothing better than to shorten managers to unrealistic odds i.e. relevant to the chances of that individual actually signing on the dotted line? Try phoning them up, asking for £10,000 at the advertised price of 10/1 only for them to let you have £100 on at that price and then to cut it to 2/1. Then, following all those tenners that they've allowed at 2/1 he's then 1/2. And they can take even more at that price AND offer Ramsey at 6/4 so even if one of them gets the job they make a profit. But guess what happens next? Another left field candidate is announced and his odds plummet to 1/2 and all those "in the know" can lump on again.

I'm not saying that Jones isn't a candidate. What I am saying is that the odds on offer are not representative of his chances of getting the job. Because if he was that certain they wouldn't even be offering a price on him. 

Edit - And no sooner had I typed that than Jones is 6/1 and fifth favourite and Ramsey is 3/1. Fill your boots, for the benefit of those nice bookies, on Buckingham at 2/5 but try making a profit having already backed Jones at 1/2 or even Ramsey at 6/4.

You seem to have misunderstood how running a book works. It's not about being "right" all the time, it's about making money. 

If people put enough money on you getting the Cardiff job then your odds would shorten. Not because you're in with a shout, but because that's just how it works.

AA is one of like four posters on Charlton Life, alongside bobmunro, Peanuts and PolzeathNick, about whom making this suggestion that they don't understand running a book is going to be totally inaccurate btw

Well if that's the case then it makes the comment even stranger, doesn't it? Unless he was trying to explain the obvious to those who can't grasp it, I guess? That would probably make sense.

In which case I'll offer you 2/1 he doesn't succeed!
;-)

I was but clearly failed miserably. Bookmaking isn't just about money layed on a particular candidate forcing the price down. It's also about getting people to back a candidate at the wrong price which is what I said about Jones being 1/2 and Ramsey being 6/4 in the same book. Buckingham is now 2/5. Not because bookies have taken millions at much bigger prices but because they want some people to back Jones at 1/2, others to back Ramsey at 6/4 and then others to back Buckingham at 2/5. 

You can have whatever you like on a Premier League win market because all information is in the public domain but any market where someone has potentially information that they aren't party to will be restricted or closed. The people that have their accounts closed by bookies are those that are backing selections at a price that represents value. Those that consistently back horses when prices first go up, for example, the night before that then shorten drastically the next day. Those that are at a cricket match before play starts and sees the boundary is really short one side so back overs on 6s. Or those dirty arbers who see an opportunity to back something with them and then lay it on Betfair.

Somebody mentioning in the press a selection is heaven for the bookies. Their PR man is wheeled out and you hear those words "we've seen good money for xxxxx". Do they ever tell you how much they've taken? Of course, they don't but it's a way of getting more money in at the wrong price AND it gives free publicity to the bookmaker with the associated national coverage. 

One final point. If the price of a manager is a direct reflection of the liabilities that they have on that candidate, how come they all go the same price on that candidate and each and every other one? They can't have all taken exactly the same money on those selections. Can they? 

https://www.bettingodds.com/thesackrace/teams/cardiff-city

 

PaddyP17 said:

Why are people getting so panicked by odds? When I knew Lee Bowyer was lasting the 10 games as "caretaker" til end of season and thus the bet on him as next perm CAFC manager would come in, I put on 30 quid, my mate 40, and his 16/1 odds went in to 4/6 literally minutes later.

It takes basically nothing to move a L1/Championship next manager market. The bookies adjust markets based on betting patterns and these markets are minuscule.

Great post:

- explains it well
- clear example
- humble brag

10/10

Henry Irving said:

Henry Irving said:

I think it is all nonsense

As I said

WIOTOS wins again. 

Braziliance said:

Scoham said:

Braziliance said:

Marriott110 said:

Braziliance said:

bobmunro said:

Carter said:

If he were to go it would be a truly mental move. Cardiff are a mess and aren't close to bottoming out. 

I can see a few reasons why he would take it, and they are not to be discounted as he is a really passionate man and makes zero bones about it. I think he will stay, things can change fast in football as we can all attest to and we might be shite next season, sign a load of players that don't fancy the high intensity work rate Nathan Jones expects and he decides enough is enough and to earn a load of money saving Cardiffs bacon next season, they are going to be worth a punt to double drop in my eyes. There is a world where the stars align, we sack NJ, Cardiff are bottom 5 and it all works out. I hope not 

With Jones having the final say on who we sign, I very much doubt that will happen. Seems to me that he is a pretty good judge of character.

I will die on the hill Gass gets way more stick than he deserves, but to say he's a bad character because he didn't play well when nobody in our attack did pre December is quite unfair to him

Now we know it's silly season. Could be the nicest bloke on earth but he's still a terrible footballer.

But not because of a bad attitude, he worked hard, he just wasn’t good enough.

Not the thread for it, but if an unfit Chuks and Mbick are getting ahead of you, says it all for me. 

It was still a poor judgment signing, that was the picture/joke.

What have you heard about Ahadme’s character?

Cardiff - Charlton Athletic: Roland Duchatelet is - you choose the last two words of the acronym

Marriott110 said:

Braziliance said:

bobmunro said:

Carter said:

If he were to go it would be a truly mental move. Cardiff are a mess and aren't close to bottoming out. 

I can see a few reasons why he would take it, and they are not to be discounted as he is a really passionate man and makes zero bones about it. I think he will stay, things can change fast in football as we can all attest to and we might be shite next season, sign a load of players that don't fancy the high intensity work rate Nathan Jones expects and he decides enough is enough and to earn a load of money saving Cardiffs bacon next season, they are going to be worth a punt to double drop in my eyes. There is a world where the stars align, we sack NJ, Cardiff are bottom 5 and it all works out. I hope not 

With Jones having the final say on who we sign, I very much doubt that will happen. Seems to me that he is a pretty good judge of character.

I will die on the hill Gass gets way more stick than he deserves, but to say he's a bad character because he didn't play well when nobody in our attack did pre December is quite unfair to him

Absolutely. Got to be someone to hate though and we had a pretty good season so Ahadme gets all of it. I think his time with us is over following promotion but I still think it's a shame that we never really got to see what he could have offered in a team that actually crossed the ball and played football that wasn't just shanking it up the pitch to no-one. I think we scored 8 headed goals since we stopped playing like idiots and a fair few others have either been assisted by headers or the result of headed flick ons or knock downs. We scored only 4 before that and one of those was Ahadme! Between the bad start and fitness issues stopping him having any kind of Gillesphey style redemption we'll never know if he could have offered more but considering he scored 6 headers for Cambridge last season I think he would have enjoyed life a lot more in the new system.