Savings and Investments thread

Carter said:

I haven't seen too much on this on here yet 

Things are moving back in a upward direction, the cold water shock of what Trump is up to has subsided a bit. I had clocked at first the European and UK stuff holding up really well against the US stocks however that has redressed itself and the US investments are up as well as the NASDAQ rising 8% from when I caught that particular knife. 

I saw loads of hyperbolic news about what Trump did and the disaster it was, how much people had lost and tons of people talking on the 212 forums about cutting and running from stocks full stop let alone US ones but much less now a bit of oil has been poured on the water. I don’t say this as any defence of Trump, I don't like him or the cocksuckers who surround him but its interesting the news outlets must see their box office as "hammer trump = get clicks" which is their right to do, it just means finding anything objective is really difficult. Bit like one of the post match threads on here after a home defeat ;-) 

PragueAddick said:

Rob7Lee said:

PragueAddick said:

Rob7Lee said:

Huskaris said:

PragueAddick said:

Well my new best friend Claude makes me right ( I’m talking about an S&P500 ETF I bought on Feb 19, on the H-L platform, which is traded jn GBP.) Claude says:

I'll search for the S&P 500 performance and GBP/USD exchange rate movements since February 19, 2025.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Based on my search, I can now provide a more detailed explanation of the factors contributing to your -12% loss on your S&P 500 ETF since February 19, 2025:

**Stock Market Performance Factor (-9%)**

The S&P 500 entered bear territory on an intraday basis, falling as much as 21.35% from its February 19, 2025 high of 6,147.43 to a low of 4,835.04 on April 7, 2025.  By the end of April, the S&P 500 had posted three consecutive monthly declines: -1.42% in February, -5.75% in March, and -0.76% in April, resulting in a year-to-date decline of -5.31% through April. Since your purchase date coincides exactly with the market peak on February 19, you would have experienced the full impact of this decline, which accounts for most of your loss.

**Currency Exchange Factor (-3%)**

The GBP/USD exchange rate has strengthened significantly since mid-February, rising from around 1.26-1.27 to as high as 1.3435 USD per GBP by April 28, 2025.  Specifically, the exchange rate moved from approximately 1.26 in mid-February to over 1.34 by late April 2025, representing about a 6-7% strengthening of the pound against the dollar. 

When the pound strengthens against the dollar, your dollar-denominated assets (S&P 500 stocks) lose value when converted back to pounds. This currency effect would have contributed approximately 3% to your overall loss.

**Combined Effect**

The combined effect of the market decline (-9%) and the currency movement (-3%) explains your total loss of approximately 12%.

This is a classic example of how currency fluctuations can 😀either amplify or mitigate investment returns for international investors. In this case, the strengthening pound magnified your losses from the market decline.

That's exactly what Rob is saying isn't it? That the pound strengthening is bad. The dollar strengthening is good. Having reread your post, I think we are actually all saying the same thing! 

Yes all saying the same thing!!

I don't think we are. What you wrote  was "....although could do with the dollar coming back down a bit." I'm talking about my mistake in buying even a small amount of a US focused but £ denominated ETF in February. My ETF now is about 12% down from then, of which 3% is the result of dollar devaluation since I bought it; and if the dollar goes down more, as you want, it will further devalue my holding there. No?

As I said earlier, by ‘coming BACK down a bit’ for me means at the moment it’s $1.32 to the £ I’d rather it was back near $1.20, ie coming back down. I think your ‘goes down more’ you mean the opposite which yes of course if the dollar went to $1.5 to the £ your holding would worsen in £ value..

Ok, I got there finally 🤣thanks to  @IdleHans for pointing  out that "weakening" is the right word to describe what the dollar has been and continues to do, unfortunately for us.

seriously_red said:

golfaddick said:

Carter said:

I haven't seen too much on this on here yet 

Things are moving back in a upward direction, the cold water shock of what Trump is up to has subsided a bit. I had clocked at first the European and UK stuff holding up really well against the US stocks however that has redressed itself and the US investments are up as well as the NASDAQ rising 8% from when I caught that particular knife. 

I saw loads of hyperbolic news about what Trump did and the disaster it was, how much people had lost and tons of people talking on the 212 forums about cutting and running from stocks full stop let alone US ones but much less now a bit of oil has been poured on the water. I don’t say this as any defence of Trump, I don't like him or the cocksuckers who surround him but its interesting the news outlets must see their box office as "hammer trump = get clicks" which is their right to do, it just means finding anything objective is really difficult. Bit like one of the post match threads on here after a home defeat ;-) 

It's nothing about "hammering trump" but simply about what is news worthy. When there is a sharp decline or a major shock to the markets it's on the news. Media outlets like to announce a "slump" or a "crash" like it's the end of the world. What they never report is the aftermath. The fact is markets will recover, sometimes within weeks, sometimes within months....but they do recover. The S&P losing 8% in one day is news worthy. It then rising 1% the next is not. 

I always tell my clients this. They will hear about the big crashes, but they wont hear about the gradual gains that over time bring the markets back to where they were. I've worked in the industry since 1985 and been tough many a "crisis". The stockmarket ended 1987 higher than it started it, even though we saw a 20% decline in one week following the October hurricane. When lockdown was announced in March 2020 markets fell 25% in 2 weeks. They were back up again at the start of 2021.

The media like bad news. Doesn't matter whether its beacuse of Trump, Truss, Goldman Sachs or the UK leaving the ERM. 

Main stream media will always report upon big events and bad news, especially if that affects large numbers of people. S&P has climbed again and US has done a thin deal with UK, but what happens when the 90 days are up?

What's certain is that all forecasts of the S&P for end 2025 are down from a few months back... and that nobody quite knows where this is going. Similarly the FTSE, European indices and Japan are up. 

Most amateur and pension investors don't have the time nor expertise to make calls every day / week, let alone be permanently shifting funds around. So the question is what balance to establish geographically and bonds vs equities? And when to invest any lump sum. In other words how to spread risk and where can we expect a gentle return over the years until we retire.

At the same time we might want to look at a defensive strategy if we believe that a trade war will break out between US and China. That scenario looks a possible scenario, as neither side is likely to back down. When one adds US$ depreciation to the mix, it looks sound to me to trim US exposure as a result of this erratic policy making.

PragueAddick said:

I’ve grabbed the opportunity to sell some of my US junk that is overloaded with Big Seven stock. Probably just going to put it in a money market fund which currently still looks like it will deliver 4.5% over 12 months. At my age protecting what I have is more important than a long-term investment outlook.

mendonca said:

Global trackers are still down about 5% from their Jan/Feb peak. Active global funds (the usual culprits) seem to be around 6-10%. Maybe you've nicely weighted the portfolio with Europe and UK?

PragueAddick said:

I’ve grabbed the opportunity to sell some of my US junk that is overloaded with Big Seven stock. Probably just going to put it in a money market fund which currently still looks like it will deliver 4.5% over 12 months. At my age protecting what I have is more important than a long-term investment outlook.

bobmunro said:

PragueAddick said:

I’ve grabbed the opportunity to sell some of my US junk that is overloaded with Big Seven stock. Probably just going to put it in a money market fund which currently still looks like it will deliver 4.5% over 12 months. At my age protecting what I have is more important than a long-term investment outlook.

Chase currently offering variable 4.55% Bonus Rate for six months (already taking into account the most recent cut in interest rate). Investec (my favourite) still offering 4.64% AER on 90 day notice, which in reality is fixed for a rolling 90 days as any changes to rates are with 95 days' notice.

golfaddick said:

Wasn't there something in the rules that the competition would stop once  Wembley play off tickets went on sale 😉😄.

Jon_CAFC_ said:

Please can I ask for some help guys not really sure what to do and embarrassingly I don’t have a wide circle to ask this to for guidance.

i have been a beneficiary to an estate, my relative passed without a will back in 2017 and so his estate was split between his surviving siblings or in my case to me as the son of my father who’d passed before my relative.

probate was issued in September 2018 and then, distribution of the estate commenced in parts since August 2019. I say in part because with then Covid, and other happenings including a share holding in Ireland it took some time for the solicitors and executor to gather all share certificates and sell holdings ect.

id asked previously on here, because although just a beneficiary and because I wasn’t close or in contact with the administrator or other beneficiary that I had the feeling as if the solicitors were very slow to act, reluctant to share info and the executor also was advancing in age - my queries largely went ignored by the solicitor - namely enquiring when things would be wrapped up or an idea of what was remaining to be distributed.

some time passed and I began to commence a complaint to the ombudsman. In the last month however the solicitor informed me that the executor had now passed and they were awaiting instructions from their estate administrator.

Ive just received a call from the solicitor now, they wish me to take over as administrator- however I’m uncertain because they cannot tell me for instance roughly or realistically what exposure I’m facing in taking over administration 

they tell me there’s some 50k held in their account, however additional inheritance tax owed might be in the region of 22k and some 5/10k of interest owed to Hrmc which is calculated from 6 months from date of death until paid - given the timescales involved this is hefty 

they do not have full and final accounts and need to instruct an accountant, they also told me that as institutions only keep some records for 6 or so years that in doing the accounts they may not be fully complete and not sure how this will be looked at by Hrmc in closing off the estate 

they couldn’t commit much to additional exposure I could be subject to only that the money on account is held for such remaining costs and what’s left then will be distributed among myself and the 2 deceased estates as they also bluntly imparted that both of these relatives had now passed.

not really sure what to do next - feel as if I’m opening myself to a big bill and I’ll have no other recourse other than myself to cover the bill should one occur 

im waiting for them to put some of this in writing by email rather than accept on a call and said I need to think.