Energy Bills

Covered End said:

cafcpolo said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

I see that the energy price cap is forecast to increase by 9% in October. Time to fix ? I’m currently on Octopus tracker.

Unless there is a 20 to 30% ish rise in prices you'll still be better off on the tracker.

I'm on the Octopus Tracker December 2023 V1 and am staying on that.
But SHG is on a more expensive more recent version.

Would seem I’m on the same. Worth sticking ?

ShootersHillGuru said:

Covered End said:

cafcpolo said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

I see that the energy price cap is forecast to increase by 9% in October. Time to fix ? I’m currently on Octopus tracker.

Unless there is a 20 to 30% ish rise in prices you'll still be better off on the tracker.

I'm on the Octopus Tracker December 2023 V1 and am staying on that.
But SHG is on a more expensive more recent version.

Would seem I’m on the same. Worth sticking ?

Basically, I think it's impossible to know for certain at this point.

A bit like estimating whether a 1, 2, 3, 5 year fix mortgage may be best etc.
I would say if you need the certainty of a fix rate, because you may have financial struggles by not fixing, then you should perhaps fix.

I'm estimating that the Octopus variable tracker has served me well and I'm happy to stick with it as I doubt there's much in it and am happy to take the risk that I think there's a 55/60% chance that the tracker will be a bit cheaper.

ShootersHillGuru said:

Covered End said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

Covered End said:

cafcpolo said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

I see that the energy price cap is forecast to increase by 9% in October. Time to fix ? I’m currently on Octopus tracker.

Unless there is a 20 to 30% ish rise in prices you'll still be better off on the tracker.

I'm on the Octopus Tracker December 2023 V1 and am staying on that.
But SHG is on a more expensive more recent version.

Would seem I’m on the same. Worth sticking ?

Basically, I think it's impossible to know for certain at this point.

A bit like estimating whether a 1, 2, 3, 5 year fix mortgage may be best etc.
I would say if you need the certainty of a fix rate, because you may have financial struggles by not fixing, then you should perhaps fix.

I'm estimating that the Octopus variable has served me well and I'm happy to stick with it as I doubt there's much in it and am happy to take the risk that I think there's a 55/60% chance that the tracker will be a bit cheaper.

Just used the Octoprice compare app for first time. I’m sure you know it gives real data based on your current usage. Very impressive and it would appear I’m definitely saving some money over variable but Agile is slightly better. Think I’ll stick. Thanks for input. Much appreciated 

Very useful app. Agile is great but punishes you at peak times in the evening.

BalladMan said:

I will repeat what I have said before. I don’t understand where the calculation for a 9/10% rise in energy bills is derived from. As the price cap is a lagging indicator (previous 3 months) it should be clear that wholesale prices have increased 9/10% up to end of September. They have not.  Following chart shows octopus tracker rate over the last 3 months 

As you can see barely deviated from 20/21p and certainly not consistently higher than 22p needed to equal a 10% rise.  

I get the feeling it’s the added extras that energy companies can throw into the ‘price cap’ to help them recover from bad debtors / other energy companies going bust that is pushing the prices up. 

I will be staying on the Octopus wholesale tracker for this winter. 

A direct and inevitable consequence of trying to fix prices.  We didn't pay as much as we should have when prices spiked but all that has to be paid back (plus the associated financing costs).  Worse, because the government wanted prices constrained, that forced companies to buy forward at the top of the market.  In addition, we're paying for everyone who has defaulted.

We're now in an insane place where global wholesale prices have come down to roughly where they were before the crisis (e.g. natural gas) but we're still paying almost twice as much as before the spike.

On top of that, the fixed daily rates are linked to the cost of running the network - hence why they vary by location, energy type, etc. - and, due to inflation in labour, materials and energy, these keep going up.

Are they also profiteering, no doubt.  They'll be gaming the regulator on all sorts of costs, caveats and risks that require higher profits to manage.  But there's no longer a market - albeit it was never a very efficient market - to mitigate that profiteering.

I fixed our energy rates with EDF for 3 years and the deal runs out next month.

Huskaris said:

BalladMan said:

I will repeat what I have said before. I don’t understand where the calculation for a 9/10% rise in energy bills is derived from. As the price cap is a lagging indicator (previous 3 months) it should be clear that wholesale prices have increased 9/10% up to end of September. They have not.  Following chart shows octopus tracker rate over the last 3 months 

As you can see barely deviated from 20/21p and certainly not consistently higher than 22p needed to equal a 10% rise.  

I get the feeling it’s the added extras that energy companies can throw into the ‘price cap’ to help them recover from bad debtors / other energy companies going bust that is pushing the prices up. 

I will be staying on the Octopus wholesale tracker for this winter. 

And me, one of the best decisions I've made financially this year, thanks to people on here. 

You're welcome.

fenlandaddick said:

It is not a market. It is a club for others to make money, presided over by a elected incompetents.

Also my feeling.  I know the masses are not on the wholesale tracker offered by Octopus, so all getting shafted by greedy companies.  

cafcpolo said:

Did anyone else on the tracker get three saving sessions last week? Just had my email from the 1st, managed to use £2.60 of elec in the first hour!

Yep. First session I got 16p free. 

cafcpolo said:

Did anyone else on the tracker get three saving sessions last week? Just had my email from the 1st, managed to use £2.60 of elec in the first hour!

Yes.
I mowed the lawn (electric) for about 40 mins, put the dishwasher on for 30 mins, plugged in the laptop and phone and boiled the kettle (between 1pm & 2pm).

The free electricity over and above what I would normally spend was a whopping 20p!
I won't be rushing to bother again.
I thought the saving would be more like £1 (purely guessing).

RaplhMilne said:

Im currently OVO variable, Paying

Gas 5.28p per KW an 30.50p per day Standing
Electric 22.40 per KW  an 38.84p per day Standing

Two Year Fixed

Gas 6.60p per KW an 26.01p per day Standing
Electric 24.59p an  41.55p per day Standing

With the Cap increasing shortly (forecast 9%) and being reviewed every 3 months, it’s a gamble on the whether you think prices are short to mid term heading up or down. 

This next increase I think will take my variable close to these Two year fixed figures. I’m taking the gamble it isn’t coming down anytime soon. So locking in now.

Although worth noting I’m on £75 exit fee on both gas and electric should I wish to get out of the 2 year fixed.

Often the exit fee doesn’t apply if you switch to another fixed rate with the same supplier. 

addix said:

Is the Octopus Tracker still worth getting?  From what I've read on it you have to switch to their basic tariff and then apply for the tracker one.
We're with EDF until the end of the month and their rates going forward aren't great.

Over the long term it’s been significantly good but there’s no guarantees that’ll remain the case. I’m on it and will remain so. If you switch to Octopus from another supplier they put you on a tarif but not tracker. Once a customer you can switch to tracker and provided you have a smart meter it’s done within a day or so, or was in my case. You can switch away from tracker without penalty but I think you can’t go back on it for a period of time. Can’t remember the timescale. If you are a Facebook user there is a special group for Octopus tracker that’s worth a read if you’re undecided. 

addix said:

Is the Octopus Tracker still worth getting?  From what I've read on it you have to switch to their basic tariff and then apply for the tracker one.
We're with EDF until the end of the month and their rates going forward aren't great.

To follow on for Shooter's very good post, I am going to add something to show how good it has been for me, following his important caveat that it isn't a guarantee it will continue:



Above you an see a purple dotted line which represents the price cap for electricity, and there has only been one day that it has been higher than the cap, with the added bonus of semi regularly the price falling to around 13p which has been great, washing machine running all day etc. 

Below that is a red line for the gas price cap, and it's never been above the line. 

My understanding from some of the others on here is that when demand peaks in winter time, this might change, but so far I couldn't be happier. 

Add to that, EDF messed up my final meter reading, Octopus sorted it within 2 weeks and refunded me the £150 pretty quickly, and then gave me a £50 credit for using a referral link posted by a user on here. 

They're good. 

Covered End said:

Here’s a link for £50 off your bill if anyone wants to sign up to the Octopus tracker. https://share.octopus.energy/melon-camel-122

"Special offer: £50 credit for you and Stephen if you sign-up now."

Never had you down as a "Stephen".

For those of you with Octopus and who haven’t already done so, you can now get free of charge Octopus Mini

https://octopus.energy/blog/octopus-home-mini/