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24/25 Full Season Predicted

Dazzler21
Dazzler21 Posts: 51,344
Last two years have been diabolically bad after a few fairly close seasons in terms of points totals. 

Let's hope it's third time lucky with this one. 

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Comments

  • cafcdave123
    cafcdave123 Posts: 11,491
    That won’t get us top two, can you do it again please?
  • se9addick
    se9addick Posts: 32,033
    That won’t get us top two, can you do it again please?
    Concerning as I think Daz is always wildly optimistic about our chances! 
  • cafcdave123
    cafcdave123 Posts: 11,491
    se9addick said:
    That won’t get us top two, can you do it again please?
    Concerning as I think Daz is always wildly optimistic about our chances! 
    Shit
  • MuttleyCAFC
    MuttleyCAFC Posts: 47,728
    I think League One is impossible to predict because nobody really knows that much about the players outside of their own ones. For that reason the most reliable prediction would be asking supporters how they think their team will do.
  • Dazzler21
    Dazzler21 Posts: 51,344
    edited August 2024
    ;se9addick said:
    That won’t get us top two, can you do it again please?
    Concerning as I think Daz is always wildly optimistic about our chances! 
    In fairness in previous years:

    D21 Predicted - Actual
    17/18 P73, A71 :smirk: I mean that's pretty damn close. 
    18/19 P70, A88 :smile: happy to be wrong
    19/20 P55, A48  :smirk: close enough
    20/21 P88, A74 :lol: could have gone either way
    21/22 P85, A59 :flushed: a bit too over optimistic
    22/23 P82, A62 :flushed: still overly optimistic
    23/24 PN/A, A53 :disappointed: gave up f*** the ownershit circus

  • Dazzler21
    Dazzler21 Posts: 51,344
    Obviously a little success went to my head and the belief Bowyer would lead us back to the Championship was lost with the ownership circus. 
  • Dazzler21
    Dazzler21 Posts: 51,344
    Currently the team is outperforming me by two points. 
  • Dazzler21
    Dazzler21 Posts: 51,344
    I mean, things could be going worse... 
  • Surprised that you expect 6 points against both Wrexham and Stockport, but hope you are right. Think you may be a bit optimistic again and I can't see us getting within 10 points of 88.
  • Dazzler21
    Dazzler21 Posts: 51,344
    Surprised that you expect 6 points against both Wrexham and Stockport, but hope you are right. Think you may be a bit optimistic again and I can't see us getting within 10 points of 88.
    To be fair, that was before a ball had been kicked. They've both done better than most expected so far. 
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  • 74 points is the average amount needed to get 6th spot, have a feeling it might need a little more this year with the number of decent sides in the division.
  • TellyTubby
    TellyTubby Posts: 3,550
    Super computer came out yesterday,  so must be right.


  • I wonder what their basing it from? As the rest of the table looks fairly accurate in terms of placing
  • fenaddick
    fenaddick Posts: 11,015
    I wonder what they’re basing it from? As the rest of the table looks fairly accurate in terms of placing
    the criteria would be interesting. I think quite a lot of our games will be on a knife edge until 70 mins or so (as we’ve already seen) so if their model is less favourable to us the it’ll pump
    out loads of narrow losses. 

    That said, a) these things are always utter nonsense and b) considering who published it it’s even less likely to be accurate 
  • BalladMan
    BalladMan Posts: 1,112
    This predicted final table at least has us at 7th, but Stockport with 112 points and Wrexham 108 (even Lincoln on 100).  https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/league-one/league-table/predicted

    It does beggar belief where they get these calculations from considering the highest EVER total is 103 and this predicts that two teams will break this record in the same season.  
  • fenaddick
    fenaddick Posts: 11,015
    Something I was listening to earlier said that these things should be run 10,000 times to create an accurate prediction and that F1 teams will run them 1,000,000 times. I bet neither of those examples were run anywhere near close to that
  • Dazzler21
    Dazzler21 Posts: 51,344
    We're still performing 1point better than I predicted. 

    As per every season my predictions are mostly wrong, but the points tally tracks quite close per game. 
  • Dazzler21
    Dazzler21 Posts: 51,344
    BalladMan said:
    This predicted final table at least has us at 7th, but Stockport with 112 points and Wrexham 108 (even Lincoln on 100).  https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/league-one/league-table/predicted

    It does beggar belief where they get these calculations from considering the highest EVER total is 103 and this predicts that two teams will break this record in the same season.  
    Interestingly that table updates game by game. 

    It now shows as:

  • fenaddick
    fenaddick Posts: 11,015
    I would say there's 0 chance Rotherham get relegated and only score 21 goals. They create a bucketload of chances (apart from against us). Their metrics must be miles off
  • Dazzler21
    Dazzler21 Posts: 51,344
    Still outrageously high pts tallies for the top 6. 

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  • Scoham
    Scoham Posts: 37,374
    edited September 2024
    Dazzler21 said:
    Still outrageously high pts tallies for the top 6. 

    And very low for the bottom 8 or so. It’s not believable based on how we know seasons play out.
  • Just one more away win for us too apparently. Hope it's on Saturday, then I won't have to bother with the remaining 19 away games.
  • golfaddick
    golfaddick Posts: 33,620
    I think your prediction between now & the end of Oct is interesting & would be very happy with 14 points from those games. 
  • Dazzler21
    Dazzler21 Posts: 51,344
    Well Charlton just had to prove me wrong:

  • golfaddick
    golfaddick Posts: 33,620
    Dazzler21 said:
    Well Charlton just had to prove me wrong:

    And we now enter the tough stretch...🤐.


  • Dazzler21
    Dazzler21 Posts: 51,344
    This is going well. We're still 2 points adrift of my predictions:

  • golfaddick
    golfaddick Posts: 33,620
    9 points from our last 9 games.

    Relegation form.

    It's only the good start to the season that is keeping us out of another relegation scrap. 
  • fenaddick
    fenaddick Posts: 11,015
    9 points from our last 9 games.

    Relegation form.

    It's only the good start to the season that is keeping us out of another relegation scrap. 
    That’s how most seasons work, your form ebbs and flows. L1 is tight this year so we can afford a little dip if we can pick it up quickly. The games we have coming up are all other promotion/play off contenders so if we manage to take points off them things look a lot more positive 
  • eaststandmike
    eaststandmike Posts: 14,956
    fenaddick said:
    9 points from our last 9 games.

    Relegation form.

    It's only the good start to the season that is keeping us out of another relegation scrap. 
    That’s how most seasons work, your form ebbs and flows. L1 is tight this year so we can afford a little dip if we can pick it up quickly. The games we have coming up are all other promotion/play off contenders so if we manage to take points off them things look a lot more positive 
    One win in six is not an ebb & flow situation, it is relegation form. 
  • fenaddick
    fenaddick Posts: 11,015
    fenaddick said:
    9 points from our last 9 games.

    Relegation form.

    It's only the good start to the season that is keeping us out of another relegation scrap. 
    That’s how most seasons work, your form ebbs and flows. L1 is tight this year so we can afford a little dip if we can pick it up quickly. The games we have coming up are all other promotion/play off contenders so if we manage to take points off them things look a lot more positive 
    One win in six is not an ebb & flow situation, it is relegation form. 
    When you figure in we’ve played the league leaders and 3 play off contenders it looks a bit better. I’m not saying it’s good enough in any way but that context is important