Savings and Investments thread

Rob7Lee said:

SE9toDA2 said:

If you pass away they might have to pay IHT (depending on size of your estate) unless you have a loan agreement as it could be interpreted as a gift rather than a loan if no repayments have been made

They won’t, gifts use up the IHT tax free allowance first,

But would reduce @Arsenetatters IHT allowance if no loan agreement in place

8,667 please

8455

8,800 optimistic again, but it feels like the positives outweigh the potential downsides.

Quite probably a volatile week on markets this week but there does, under all that, appear to be a rotation going on.  I've been skewed to FTSE 250 for some time and that has been working quite well.

I'm not sure it's a crash, though, as some people seem to think.  Just a long-overdue correction on US markets and tech in particular, which are now definitely in a bear market.  Views?

WishIdStayedinthePub said:

Quite probably a volatile week on markets this week but there does, under all that, appear to be a rotation going on.  I've been skewed to FTSE 250 for some time and that has been working quite well.

I'm not sure it's a crash, though, as some people seem to think.  Just a long-overdue correction on US markets and tech in particular, which are now definitely in a bear market.  Views?

Currently there does seem to be 2 markets in the US, the big tech companies & then everybody else. Over the last couple of weeks The Dow Jones & the S&P500 seem to be opposite correlation to each other, something what has never been seen before. The "magnificent 7" are in reporting season atm & so this is having a big effect on the markets......as well as the anticipated interest rate cuts.

I dont think the whole market is due for a correction but the big tech companies might be. 

8687

WishIdStayedinthePub said:

Quite probably a volatile week on markets this week but there does, under all that, appear to be a rotation going on.  I've been skewed to FTSE 250 for some time and that has been working quite well.

I'm not sure it's a crash, though, as some people seem to think.  Just a long-overdue correction on US markets and tech in particular, which are now definitely in a bear market.  Views?

I was at a seminar earlier today & it was said that against "fair value" the UK stockmarket is trading at a discount of just over 20%.....whereas the US is at a premium of 43%. Also their is more value in small caps than ever before. 

I forgot. Can I have 8425 if I'm not too late?

golfaddick said:

WishIdStayedinthePub said:

Quite probably a volatile week on markets this week but there does, under all that, appear to be a rotation going on.  I've been skewed to FTSE 250 for some time and that has been working quite well.

I'm not sure it's a crash, though, as some people seem to think.  Just a long-overdue correction on US markets and tech in particular, which are now definitely in a bear market.  Views?

I was at a seminar earlier today & it was said that against "fair value" the UK stockmarket is trading at a discount of just over 20%.....whereas the US is at a premium of 43%. Also their is more value in small caps than ever before. 

The US market can remain irrational for years.  But the UK market has to overcome some pretty serious headwinds in terms of  liquidity issues and pensions allocations forced into bonds through the ludicrous LDI regulations.  

But the other thing I noticed is that a lot of the market movement came in after 2:30 last week (i.e. US money) and is being picked up by local investors this week.  If the Yanks suddenly decide the FTSE is undervalued for the risk, it could move significantly.

On another topic, I've been talking to some people who are pushing tontines to make a comeback, given the underfunding of and risks in drawing down on DC pensions.  That might force annuities providers to offer better value - maybe forcing them back into equities - and might be a good solution the huge numbers of us that are completely reliant on defined contribution pensions. 

Finally an interest rate cut.

Huskaris said:

CafcWest said:

@WishIdStayedinthePub aren’t Tontines illegal in the uk?

I think if the members of the tontine were anonymous that would help.

Although the purest form of a tontine is illegal due to the incentive to murder people, I think you could say that about a lot of things, and it could do with a revisit. "Last man standing" tontines are definitely wrong, but I don't think anyone is suggesting a return to that!

They are used in France and Sweden for example, and largely used well. 

Recently, there was some legislative change towards tontines and talk of bringing them back but they are still illegal here.  The guys I'm talking to are launching in the US, then the Middle East, where they're legal.  As said, common in France and Sweden also.

Apparently, the murder issue was always a bit of a red herring.  The cohorts are too large and they can easily be made anonymous, so the risk-reward to bump people off is way too skewed.  The idea is that they also have, say, a 25 year fixed term, so it never becomes as extreme as last individual standing to scoop the pot.

It's a mixture of annuity, life insurance and a lottery.  It encourages people to live more healthily and will attract the more health conscious, so there will be a risk skew there too.  But the law of large numbers and actuarial tables mean you can pretty confidently predict that the payouts will outstrip inflation.

The real reason they fell out of favour was because the insurance companies that used to run them pilfered them, a la Maxwell.  When the rules changed to prevent that, the insurers moved to annuities, as they made more money.  So, essentially, this idea is a mutualisation of annuities, protected in a trust, and backed by FED-guaranteed certificates of deposit, lodged at global custodians. 

Carter said:

8455 if I'm not too late please @Rob7Lee

Done