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2023/24 Betting Thread

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  • IdleHans
    IdleHans Posts: 10,956
    RaplhMilne said:
    Addick Addict said:
    CAFCsayer said:
    supaclive said:
    BR7_addick said:
    Something worth looking at if you want a charlton punt.  We are 18/1 with a +11 handicap with 365.  That’s where I’ll be having a punt on us.
    I've gone on that.  That is decent!
    Am I missing something? Is that Charlton to win the league at +11 points handicap? How is it so much longer than straight win everywhere else?
    MrOneLung said:
    On the handicap thing is is you just add thr points to Charlton's total and if higher than first place you win ?

    Or is it every team has their handicap points added and then there is just one winner?
    Every team gets a certain number of points - the team that wins is the one with the most actual points added to their handicap points. So, for example, if say Portsmouth get 15 points against scratch and we beat Portsmouth in the League by 3 points they would finish above us by 1 point. 
    Carlisle have a handicap of +30 Cheltenham +29
    so prior to kick off of the first game of season Carlisle are top with 30 points an Cheltenham 2nd with 29. Charlton are 17th with 11 points. Derby are bottom with none. As each game passes we all move up or down. We need to get 20 points ahead of Carlisle to pass them in the handicap. Or more likely finish less than 10 points behind Derby to win the handicap.

    In bookies opinion, technically a handicap should see all 24 teams in the league finish equal when the handicap it taken into account. This is why Derby the favourites are 18/1 and rank outsiders Carlisle are also 18/1. 

    As Plymouth were not that fancied last season I assume not only did they win the league outright, but also won the handicap.
    Also shows what poor value it is for punters. Say a tenner is bet on each team, which is £240 staked. There will be one winner so the payout is £190, hey presto £50 profit (21%) for your friendly bookie. Plus of course the interest on 240 for the season. Nice business model, but pisspoor value for the punters.
  • Oh Eddie Youds...
    Oh Eddie Youds... Posts: 1,320
    The bookie will not see exactly the same money staked on every team though. If 60% of bettors (that place a handicap bet) back Charlton & Charlton win the handicap then bet365 would lose money on this market.

    The bookie has/is taking on an element of risk. Their traders are not guaranteed to make money on this market.
  • Covered End
    Covered End Posts: 51,981
    Sounds like more of a massive headache than a bit of fun. 
  • BR7_addick
    BR7_addick Posts: 10,210
    IdleHans said:
    RaplhMilne said:
    Addick Addict said:
    CAFCsayer said:
    supaclive said:
    BR7_addick said:
    Something worth looking at if you want a charlton punt.  We are 18/1 with a +11 handicap with 365.  That’s where I’ll be having a punt on us.
    I've gone on that.  That is decent!
    Am I missing something? Is that Charlton to win the league at +11 points handicap? How is it so much longer than straight win everywhere else?
    MrOneLung said:
    On the handicap thing is is you just add thr points to Charlton's total and if higher than first place you win ?

    Or is it every team has their handicap points added and then there is just one winner?
    Every team gets a certain number of points - the team that wins is the one with the most actual points added to their handicap points. So, for example, if say Portsmouth get 15 points against scratch and we beat Portsmouth in the League by 3 points they would finish above us by 1 point. 
    Carlisle have a handicap of +30 Cheltenham +29
    so prior to kick off of the first game of season Carlisle are top with 30 points an Cheltenham 2nd with 29. Charlton are 17th with 11 points. Derby are bottom with none. As each game passes we all move up or down. We need to get 20 points ahead of Carlisle to pass them in the handicap. Or more likely finish less than 10 points behind Derby to win the handicap.

    In bookies opinion, technically a handicap should see all 24 teams in the league finish equal when the handicap it taken into account. This is why Derby the favourites are 18/1 and rank outsiders Carlisle are also 18/1. 

    As Plymouth were not that fancied last season I assume not only did they win the league outright, but also won the handicap.
    Also shows what poor value it is for punters. Say a tenner is bet on each team, which is £240 staked. There will be one winner so the payout is £190, hey presto £50 profit (21%) for your friendly bookie. Plus of course the interest on 240 for the season. Nice business model, but pisspoor value for the punters.
    All markets are stacked like that, that’s the bookies margin.  You bet on the next goal market in a match both teams if evenly matched will be 10/11.
  • meldrew66
    meldrew66 Posts: 2,561
    It doesn’t sound great but actually 8/15 for Charlton to finish top half with the decent squad we have assembled feels like free money. Tempted to go large on that with WH.
  • Chris_from_Sidcup
    Chris_from_Sidcup Posts: 35,987
    meldrew66 said:
    It doesn’t sound great but actually 8/15 for Charlton to finish top half with the decent squad we have assembled feels like free money. Tempted to go large on that with WH.
    That's a crazy price considering we finished top half last season and the squad has been improved.
  • BR7_addick
    BR7_addick Posts: 10,210
    meldrew66 said:
    It doesn’t sound great but actually 8/15 for Charlton to finish top half with the decent squad we have assembled feels like free money. Tempted to go large on that with WH.
    One of them ones if you’ve got some bottle it’s worth it with a spare 2k lying around.  

    Either that or you chuck it in with another couple of certs.  Arsenal top 4, Burnley to stay up would be my tips.
  • Covered End
    Covered End Posts: 51,981
    meldrew66 said:
    It doesn’t sound great but actually 8/15 for Charlton to finish top half with the decent squad we have assembled feels like free money. Tempted to go large on that with WH.
    I've done that bet the last 5 seasons we've been in L1.
    I've won 4 times and cashed out in January at a modest loss the season we ended up 13th.
  • RaplhMilne
    RaplhMilne Posts: 4,601
    edited August 2023
    Well this is really very strange, a few days ago virtually every bookmaker had Charlton at 16/1 to win the league. Now they have pretty much all started to cut us with a number at 14/1, others going to 12/1 and SKYBET as low as 10/1.  

    However, for whatever reason BET365 have bucked the trend and have pushed us OUT to 18/1.

    Also seeing Alfie May cut from 12/1 into 10/1 and 8/1 for Top Scorer in League 1.
  • meldrew66
    meldrew66 Posts: 2,561
    Covered End said:
    meldrew66 said:
    It doesn’t sound great but actually 8/15 for Charlton to finish top half with the decent squad we have assembled feels like free money. Tempted to go large on that with WH.
    I've done that bet the last 5 seasons we've been in L1.
    I've won 4 times and cashed out in January at a modest loss the season we ended up 13th.
    WH have moved from 8/15 to 2/5 for no apparent reason. Only Corals are offering 8/15 now. Others are 1/2 or worse. I know I should lump on it but something tells me to be cautious with this new team.....................
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  • Chris_from_Sidcup
    Chris_from_Sidcup Posts: 35,987
    meldrew66 said:
    Covered End said:
    meldrew66 said:
    It doesn’t sound great but actually 8/15 for Charlton to finish top half with the decent squad we have assembled feels like free money. Tempted to go large on that with WH.
    I've done that bet the last 5 seasons we've been in L1.
    I've won 4 times and cashed out in January at a modest loss the season we ended up 13th.
    WH have moved from 8/15 to 2/5 for no apparent reason. Only Corals are offering 8/15 now. Others are 1/2 or worse. I know I should lump on it but something tells me to be cautious with this new team.....................
    Even with how bad we were last season we still finished 10th. 

    I'd be amazed if we were to finish worse than that, especially as know the squad will be strengthened. 
  • Oh Eddie Youds...
    Oh Eddie Youds... Posts: 1,320
    edited August 2023
    Chris_from_Sidcup said:
    meldrew66 said:
    It doesn’t sound great but actually 8/15 for Charlton to finish top half with the decent squad we have assembled feels like free money. Tempted to go large on that with WH.
    That's a crazy price considering we finished top half last season and the squad has been improved.
    Is this years squad better than last years?

    Will May be as good as JRS?

    Is Jones as good as O’Connell? (who joined us as ‘the best ball playing CB outside the prem’)

    Is Taylor just another McGrandles (people raved about Conor based on his form at Lincoln in the same way we’re currently raving about Terry).

    Is Edun actually any good? (Very few of us can remember seeing him play).

    Lots to be proven just yet. I’m personally not convinced we’re much stronger than this time last year. Especially without the quality Jes gave us last season.



  • BR7_addick
    BR7_addick Posts: 10,210
    I’m done and ready for 23/24 now, posting them so you can laugh at me come May:



    Stake: £1,011
    Returns: TBC
  • shirty5
    shirty5 Posts: 19,214
    Carl Piergianni this Saturday 

    11/1 first goalscorer

    11/2 Anytime goalscorer
  • RaplhMilne
    RaplhMilne Posts: 4,601
    Why you think Carl will score….
  • Athletico Charlton
    Athletico Charlton Posts: 14,272
    edited September 2023
    Recently back from a Paddy Power paid trip, 9 weeks around Asia with the family after last season's fluke.  Got a couple of accys on for this year, one below...


  • GetYerCoreyOut
    GetYerCoreyOut Posts: 301
    Athletico Charlton said:
    Recently back from a Paddy Power paid trip, 9 weeks around Asia with the family after last season's fluke.  Got a couple of accys on for this year, one below...


    Not feeling so ballsy this year? 
  • Athletico Charlton
    Athletico Charlton Posts: 14,272
    edited September 2023
    GetYerCoreyOut said:
    Athletico Charlton said:
    Recently back from a Paddy Power paid trip, 9 weeks around Asia with the family after last season's fluke.  Got a couple of accys on for this year, one below...


    Not feeling so ballsy this year? 
    I have 3 others so overall I have actually bet a little more than last year but the teams I was drawn to just didn't give the same return/odds as last year's bet did.  Also bookies were not offering top half finishes outside the PL, unlike they were last year (or at least PP weren't to me?).  One of the others 



  • Oh Eddie Youds...
    Oh Eddie Youds... Posts: 1,320
    Leaburn to score first and Charlton to win 2-0 on Sat is 95/1

    Every Charlton fan has to have a quid on that surely.
  • RaplhMilne
    RaplhMilne Posts: 4,601
    Oh Eddie Youds... said:
    Leaburn to score first and Charlton to win 2-0 on Sat is 95/1

    Every Charlton fan has to have a quid on that surely.
    With who… Betfair have largest price Leaburn first at 17/2. However, only 70/1 for Leaburn 2-0
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  • JaShea99
    JaShea99 Posts: 5,456
    Oh Eddie Youds... said:
    Leaburn to score first and Charlton to win 2-0 on Sat is 95/1

    Every Charlton fan has to have a quid on that surely.
    Surprised it’s not 95/1 just for us to win.
  • kinveachyaddick
    kinveachyaddick Posts: 3,874
    Oh Eddie Youds... said:
    Leaburn to score first and Charlton to win 2-0 on Sat is 95/1

    Every Charlton fan has to have a quid on that surely.
    Would have to keep a clean sheet though. Maybe Leaburn 2-1 is the bet! 
  • Oh Eddie Youds...
    Oh Eddie Youds... Posts: 1,320
    RaplhMilne said:
    Oh Eddie Youds... said:
    Leaburn to score first and Charlton to win 2-0 on Sat is 95/1

    Every Charlton fan has to have a quid on that surely.
    With who… Betfair have largest price Leaburn first at 17/2. However, only 70/1 for Leaburn 2-0
    Skybet scorecast @ralphmilne
  • Off_it
    Off_it Posts: 28,833
    I thought we might have a good season so i decided I was going to stick a bet each game on us to "win". Only a fiver per match so far.

    It's going really really well. 

    Question is, do I stick with it or just cut my losses and give it up?
  • Nicholas
    Nicholas Posts: 7,626
    Not being funny but its pretty obvious. We have a dog shit of a squad and we wont start winning again until the likes of Fraser, Camera, May, Leaburn, etc are all back and playing in the same team. Thats when i suggest you start backing us again.
  • kinveachyaddick
    kinveachyaddick Posts: 3,874
    Mate had a nice £9k acca that needed Chelsea and Arsenal today. Was offered £2k cash out after the newcastle game but let it run then eventually took £280 with about 10 mins left of the Chelsea game. Ouch...
  • stackitsteve
    stackitsteve Posts: 12,102
    kinveachyaddick said:
    Mate had a nice £9k acca that needed Chelsea and Arsenal today. Was offered £2k cash out after the newcastle game but let it run then eventually took £280 with about 10 mins left of the Chelsea game. Ouch...
    And I was pissed off that Chelsea let me down for my 7 fold for £80 haha
  • meldrew66
    meldrew66 Posts: 2,561
    Skybet just increased the odds of us finishing in the top half to 5/4. After the Orient win we were 1/5 on. Even with our terrible start we are only 3 points off 11th. Hard to imagine we are not better than at least half of these league 1 sides.
  • RaplhMilne
    RaplhMilne Posts: 4,601
    SKYBET really don’t fancy us at all they go 80/1 to be champions (40/1) with others 16/1 promotion (others low as 8/1 to 14/1).

    Yet again we are being massively hampered, by our inability to field our best 11 due to injuries. 
  • BR7_addick
    BR7_addick Posts: 10,210
    Other than a (perceived) good transfer window, we’ve given punters and bookies nothing to indicate we’ll be challenging, not a single thing so far that’s the reality.  

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