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Savings and Investments thread
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I wish someone had grabbed me round the neck when I decided to sell mine when I went to Thailand! That was in Camberwell. Now renting in Surbiton!PragueAddick said:
You’re starting to sound like my mate, who, when I was over in 1996 and pondering whether to sell my house in Surbiton, grabbed me by the neck and told me not to be so bloody stupid. He never stopped reminding me after that what great investment advice he had given me.Rob7Lee said:
You must be raking it in with DLG going from 180 to 197. 10% in three weeks!PragueAddick said:
Are you calling the bottom?WishIdStayedinthePub said:A very good day to be invested.
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Oh hallo, the Anti -Growth Coalition are in the house😉ThreadKiller said:
Dead cat bounce ..kentaddick said:
this, bear market rally imminent. But ultimately at the beginning of a downtrend.WishIdStayedinthePub said:
Nope. This is a bear market. Still more misery to come.PragueAddick said:
Are you calling the bottom?WishIdStayedinthePub said:A very good day to be invested.
But I think the selling got overdone and we're coming up to a seasonal time that tends to do well. Maybe the earnings will not be quite as bad as feared?2 -
Screen-grabbed this off a presentation I'm in this morning- the speaker was estimating market growth of 4% next year and 3% in 2024 (didn't catch what parameters he put to that) which when compared to a safe interest rate of 4 or 5% in a 1 or 2 year saving account seems like a no brainer to me in terms of risk.0 -
I think that's GDP growth rather than market growth. 2 different things.LonelyNorthernAddick said:
Screen-grabbed this off a presentation I'm in this morning- the speaker was estimating market growth of 4% next year and 3% in 2024 (didn't catch what parameters he put to that) which when compared to a safe interest rate of 4 or 5% in a 1 or 2 year saving account seems like a no brainer to me in terms of risk.1 -
Dollar dominance seems to be on the blink. Likely we’ll see a rally going into the end of the year.0
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I checked on the status of my supposedly safest fund, Vanguard Life Strategy 20%.15% down on the last 12 months.Got the hump about that.0
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I bet. Many use that fund as their pension investment.
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Well it is 80% invested into Fixed Interest, which is probably the worst asset class this year. Gilts are down 45% since January.PragueAddick said:I checked on the status of my supposedly safest fund, Vanguard Life Strategy 20%.15% down on the last 12 months.Got the hump about that.
Saying all that, it might be the time to start going back into Fixed Interest. There has been a big sell off & with interest rates looking to stabilise over the next year or so growth maybe back on the cards.1 -
Then they are daft then.mendonca said:I bet. Many use that fund as their pension investment.0 -
That’s my hope. The cash I have there is money I had put aside over the years as an emergency health fund - paying cash into it rather than premiums to BUPA or PPP. It was in an interest bearing cash account that was barely reaching 1% so I figured I could easily get 2% by parking it in that fund. Great. So I’m going to hope that it recovers then whip it out and put it in a cash account paying probably 5% soon.golfaddick said:
Well it is 80% invested into Fixed Interest, which is probably the worst asset class this year. Gilts are down 45% since January.PragueAddick said:I checked on the status of my supposedly safest fund, Vanguard Life Strategy 20%.15% down on the last 12 months.Got the hump about that.
Saying all that, it might be the time to start going back into Fixed Interest. There has been a big sell off & with interest rates looking to stabilise over the next year or so growth maybe back on the cards.0 - Sponsored links:
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That's your average retail investor who reads/follows Trustnet and Morningstar though.golfaddick said:
Then they are daft then.mendonca said:I bet. Many use that fund as their pension investment.0 -
A friend of mine who was a very successful asset manager and was able to retire in his forties, has been buying short-dated GILTs (out to 2-3 years). Unless you think things are really dire and the UK will go bust, you can make a very precise calculation of what you will get back from the gross redemption yield and make a decision on that versus inflation.
Another good day to be invested, btw.1 -
Wouldn’t disagree with the sentiment but would be more inclined, provided you can lock up the cash for the period and get the FSCS protection, to stick it on deposit at 4.77% and 4.90% respectively for 2 and 3 years, so your yield pick up over gilts is fairly good.WishIdStayedinthePub said:A friend of mine who was a very successful asset manager and was able to retire in his forties, has been buying short-dated GILTs (out to 2-3 years). Unless you think things are really dire and the UK will go bust, you can make a very precise calculation of what you will get back from the gross redemption yield and make a decision on that versus inflation.
Another good day to be invested, btw.2 -
That makes sense, and personally I can see even better deposit rates being offered next month after another BoE rate rise.wwaddick said:
Wouldn’t disagree with the sentiment but would be more inclined, provided you can lock up the cash for the period and get the FSCS protection, to stick it on deposit at 4.77% and 4.90% respectively for 2 and 3 years, so your yield pick up over gilts is fairly good.WishIdStayedinthePub said:A friend of mine who was a very successful asset manager and was able to retire in his forties, has been buying short-dated GILTs (out to 2-3 years). Unless you think things are really dire and the UK will go bust, you can make a very precise calculation of what you will get back from the gross redemption yield and make a decision on that versus inflation.
Another good day to be invested, btw.But I may misunderstand what “gross redemption yield” comprises ? Does it include some capital appreciation?And its all very well having another good day to be invested, the problem is that in between the last one and this one, there was a bad one!😢2 -
Agree with you both. I won't be outstaying my welcome!PragueAddick said:
That makes sense, and personally I can see even better deposit rates being offered next month after another BoE rate rise.wwaddick said:
Wouldn’t disagree with the sentiment but would be more inclined, provided you can lock up the cash for the period and get the FSCS protection, to stick it on deposit at 4.77% and 4.90% respectively for 2 and 3 years, so your yield pick up over gilts is fairly good.WishIdStayedinthePub said:A friend of mine who was a very successful asset manager and was able to retire in his forties, has been buying short-dated GILTs (out to 2-3 years). Unless you think things are really dire and the UK will go bust, you can make a very precise calculation of what you will get back from the gross redemption yield and make a decision on that versus inflation.
Another good day to be invested, btw.But I may misunderstand what “gross redemption yield” comprises ? Does it include some capital appreciation?And its all very well having another good day to be invested, the problem is that in between the last one and this one, there was a bad one!😢0 -
Hey this is “my” thread ( in that I started it, to some derision) and your welcome is unlimited! Actually I just took a peek and my portfolio has held up better than I thought on a one month perspective, so I withdraw my previous comment.WishIdStayedinthePub said:
Agree with you both. I won't be outstaying my welcome!PragueAddick said:
That makes sense, and personally I can see even better deposit rates being offered next month after another BoE rate rise.wwaddick said:
Wouldn’t disagree with the sentiment but would be more inclined, provided you can lock up the cash for the period and get the FSCS protection, to stick it on deposit at 4.77% and 4.90% respectively for 2 and 3 years, so your yield pick up over gilts is fairly good.WishIdStayedinthePub said:A friend of mine who was a very successful asset manager and was able to retire in his forties, has been buying short-dated GILTs (out to 2-3 years). Unless you think things are really dire and the UK will go bust, you can make a very precise calculation of what you will get back from the gross redemption yield and make a decision on that versus inflation.
Another good day to be invested, btw.But I may misunderstand what “gross redemption yield” comprises ? Does it include some capital appreciation?And its all very well having another good day to be invested, the problem is that in between the last one and this one, there was a bad one!😢Also looking at the sorry state of Vanguard LifeStrategy 20% I think I wouldnt be the only one who could benefit from hearing a lot more from you about gilts and bonds. Looking at its main constituents, what do you make of that fund’s near- term prospects, for example?0 -
I'm a trustee for a defined benefit scheme and last week we did make a decision to switch some equity into bonds. However we had been ignoring most professional advice and the PPF and had been overweight in equities v bonds. We are in a much better position than if we had fully followed the PPF pressure.golfaddick said:
Well it is 80% invested into Fixed Interest, which is probably the worst asset class this year. Gilts are down 45% since January.PragueAddick said:I checked on the status of my supposedly safest fund, Vanguard Life Strategy 20%.15% down on the last 12 months.Got the hump about that.
Saying all that, it might be the time to start going back into Fixed Interest. There has been a big sell off & with interest rates looking to stabilise over the next year or so growth maybe back on the cards.
I am seriously thinking of doing the same with my personal pension where I had to fight my advisor 5 years ago to go overweight in equities v bonds and gilts.
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At the risk of a 'whoosh' - I've always felt welcome :-) - I just meant that I won't be out-staying my welcome in this market. Can't see it staying elevated much beyond first week of November. Look at the reaction to some pretty decent results from MSFT.PragueAddick said:
Hey this is “my” thread ( in that I started it, to some derision) and your welcome is unlimited! Actually I just took a peek and my portfolio has held up better than I thought on a one month perspective, so I withdraw my previous comment.WishIdStayedinthePub said:
Agree with you both. I won't be outstaying my welcome!PragueAddick said:
That makes sense, and personally I can see even better deposit rates being offered next month after another BoE rate rise.wwaddick said:
Wouldn’t disagree with the sentiment but would be more inclined, provided you can lock up the cash for the period and get the FSCS protection, to stick it on deposit at 4.77% and 4.90% respectively for 2 and 3 years, so your yield pick up over gilts is fairly good.WishIdStayedinthePub said:A friend of mine who was a very successful asset manager and was able to retire in his forties, has been buying short-dated GILTs (out to 2-3 years). Unless you think things are really dire and the UK will go bust, you can make a very precise calculation of what you will get back from the gross redemption yield and make a decision on that versus inflation.
Another good day to be invested, btw.But I may misunderstand what “gross redemption yield” comprises ? Does it include some capital appreciation?And its all very well having another good day to be invested, the problem is that in between the last one and this one, there was a bad one!😢Also looking at the sorry state of Vanguard LifeStrategy 20% I think I wouldnt be the only one who could benefit from hearing a lot more from you about gilts and bonds. Looking at its main constituents, what do you make of that fund’s near- term prospects, for example?
Btw, forgot to answer your question, yes, Gross Redemption Yield combines all outstanding coupons AND the capital appreciation and works out an average yield. As long as there's no default, that's what you'll get. Note that bonds accrue coupon payments, unlike dividends. In other words, if you sell a bond half way between one coupon and the next, the seller takes half of that coupon that has accrued. That's achieved by charging a slightly higher price for the bond, and that price is known as the 'dirty price'.
Saw an interesting chart yesterday that showed the average seasonality of bull versus bear markets. Former tend to dip in October and then rise through to the end of the year. Bear markets tend to boost in Oct/Nov and then dip down to the end of the year. Humans love patterns!
It certainly doesn't help that Putin is waving his dirty bombs about in public ...3 -
I watched a 3rd quarter review of risk-led portfolios by Quilter this morning.
Their Equity based portfolios did better over the 3rd quarter than their Bond based ones, ie the funds sitting in the 40-85% mixed asset sector did marginally better (down approx 1.5% - 2% compared to 3%) than funds in the 20%-60% sector.
The fund manager said they had recently moved a bit more money from Cash to Fixed Interest, and were looking primarily at Global Government bonds. Their feeling is that the market had now priced in all the interest rate increases and even thinking that maybe the market has overpriced where BofE rates might be by mid 2023.
Another forecast I saw last week said that rates are expected to peak at around 4%-4.5% and then fall back to around 3% by 2025/26.
From what I've seen from mortgage lenders is that the panic is over & some have started cutting their 2 & 5 year fixed rates. Yestrrday I saw one 5 year fixed fall by 0.5% to 5.34% and a few others fall by 0.25% to around 5.7%. Still very high versus the base rate (and trackers, where many are sitting around 3%) and I feel once the BofE announces the new rate next Thursday then lenders might start to sensibly re-price.2 -
The 80%/20% split equities/bonds is a conventional split, but if you have an 80% conviction in equities it should be long term conviction, in which case why not 100%?PragueAddick said:
Hey this is “my” thread ( in that I started it, to some derision) and your welcome is unlimited! Actually I just took a peek and my portfolio has held up better than I thought on a one month perspective, so I withdraw my previous comment.WishIdStayedinthePub said:
Agree with you both. I won't be outstaying my welcome!PragueAddick said:
That makes sense, and personally I can see even better deposit rates being offered next month after another BoE rate rise.wwaddick said:
Wouldn’t disagree with the sentiment but would be more inclined, provided you can lock up the cash for the period and get the FSCS protection, to stick it on deposit at 4.77% and 4.90% respectively for 2 and 3 years, so your yield pick up over gilts is fairly good.WishIdStayedinthePub said:A friend of mine who was a very successful asset manager and was able to retire in his forties, has been buying short-dated GILTs (out to 2-3 years). Unless you think things are really dire and the UK will go bust, you can make a very precise calculation of what you will get back from the gross redemption yield and make a decision on that versus inflation.
Another good day to be invested, btw.But I may misunderstand what “gross redemption yield” comprises ? Does it include some capital appreciation?And its all very well having another good day to be invested, the problem is that in between the last one and this one, there was a bad one!😢Also looking at the sorry state of Vanguard LifeStrategy 20% I think I wouldnt be the only one who could benefit from hearing a lot more from you about gilts and bonds. Looking at its main constituents, what do you make of that fund’s near- term prospects, for example?
Outside of a parallel universe, investing wealth in business for the production of goods and services for a profit should always produce a better long term return than lending it at a fixed rate of return to those businesses and governments.
So personally I advocate a 100% Global Equity allocation for a long term investment, the only reason for diluting a conviction in equities is the fear that for short term isolated periods, the pricing of equities falls on a market adjustment. Why should that fear exists unless it's a very short term investment, in which case 80/20 is an excessively high risk position.
The problem is, investors are directed towards investments that reflect their attitude to short term market fluctuations and recommend investments without ascertaining whether it is a long our short term investment. There is no logic in being averse to a fall in equities if they are to be held long term, yet if you are a long term investor but say you would be concerned if your investments suffer a material fall in value, you will be guided towards reducing a risk that you should not be prioritising. Unfortunately, investment business moves on annual performance figures so that's what investment firms focus on covering off, even for long term strategies.
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The problem is with the FCA. If investors truly invested according to the various different "risk profilers" that are out there then everybody would be in Cash 😄.Dippenhall said:
The 80%/20% split equities/bonds is a conventional split, but if you have an 80% conviction in equities it should be long term conviction, in which case why not 100%?PragueAddick said:
Hey this is “my” thread ( in that I started it, to some derision) and your welcome is unlimited! Actually I just took a peek and my portfolio has held up better than I thought on a one month perspective, so I withdraw my previous comment.WishIdStayedinthePub said:
Agree with you both. I won't be outstaying my welcome!PragueAddick said:
That makes sense, and personally I can see even better deposit rates being offered next month after another BoE rate rise.wwaddick said:
Wouldn’t disagree with the sentiment but would be more inclined, provided you can lock up the cash for the period and get the FSCS protection, to stick it on deposit at 4.77% and 4.90% respectively for 2 and 3 years, so your yield pick up over gilts is fairly good.WishIdStayedinthePub said:A friend of mine who was a very successful asset manager and was able to retire in his forties, has been buying short-dated GILTs (out to 2-3 years). Unless you think things are really dire and the UK will go bust, you can make a very precise calculation of what you will get back from the gross redemption yield and make a decision on that versus inflation.
Another good day to be invested, btw.But I may misunderstand what “gross redemption yield” comprises ? Does it include some capital appreciation?And its all very well having another good day to be invested, the problem is that in between the last one and this one, there was a bad one!😢Also looking at the sorry state of Vanguard LifeStrategy 20% I think I wouldnt be the only one who could benefit from hearing a lot more from you about gilts and bonds. Looking at its main constituents, what do you make of that fund’s near- term prospects, for example?
Outside of a parallel universe, investing wealth in business for the production of goods and services for a profit should always produce a better long term return than lending it at a fixed rate of return to those businesses and governments.
So personally I advocate a 100% Global Equity allocation for a long term investment, the only reason for diluting a conviction in equities is the fear that for short term isolated periods, the pricing of equities falls on a market adjustment. Why should that fear exists unless it's a very short term investment, in which case 80/20 is an excessively high risk position.
The problem is, investors are directed towards investments that reflect their attitude to short term market fluctuations and recommend investments without ascertaining whether it is a long our short term investment. There is no logic in being averse to a fall in equities if they are to be held long term, yet if you are a long term investor but say you would be concerned if your investments suffer a material fall in value, you will be guided towards reducing a risk that you should not be prioritising. Unfortunately, investment business moves on annual performance figures so that's what investment firms focus on covering off, even for long term strategies.1 -
Hope nobody is a meta or Amazon shareholder…0
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I am, in a very small way. They're for the long term, (as I say about all my poor investment decisions).kentaddick said:Hope nobody is a meta or Amazon shareholder…
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The regulators don't understand or want to understand that risk is multi faceted. Worse still they treat risk as if it is one dimensional capable of being eliminated, rather than acknowledged, understood and managed.golfaddick said:
The problem is with the FCA. If investors truly invested according to the various different "risk profilers" that are out there then everybody would be in Cash 😄.Dippenhall said:
The 80%/20% split equities/bonds is a conventional split, but if you have an 80% conviction in equities it should be long term conviction, in which case why not 100%?PragueAddick said:
Hey this is “my” thread ( in that I started it, to some derision) and your welcome is unlimited! Actually I just took a peek and my portfolio has held up better than I thought on a one month perspective, so I withdraw my previous comment.WishIdStayedinthePub said:
Agree with you both. I won't be outstaying my welcome!PragueAddick said:
That makes sense, and personally I can see even better deposit rates being offered next month after another BoE rate rise.wwaddick said:
Wouldn’t disagree with the sentiment but would be more inclined, provided you can lock up the cash for the period and get the FSCS protection, to stick it on deposit at 4.77% and 4.90% respectively for 2 and 3 years, so your yield pick up over gilts is fairly good.WishIdStayedinthePub said:A friend of mine who was a very successful asset manager and was able to retire in his forties, has been buying short-dated GILTs (out to 2-3 years). Unless you think things are really dire and the UK will go bust, you can make a very precise calculation of what you will get back from the gross redemption yield and make a decision on that versus inflation.
Another good day to be invested, btw.But I may misunderstand what “gross redemption yield” comprises ? Does it include some capital appreciation?And its all very well having another good day to be invested, the problem is that in between the last one and this one, there was a bad one!😢Also looking at the sorry state of Vanguard LifeStrategy 20% I think I wouldnt be the only one who could benefit from hearing a lot more from you about gilts and bonds. Looking at its main constituents, what do you make of that fund’s near- term prospects, for example?
Outside of a parallel universe, investing wealth in business for the production of goods and services for a profit should always produce a better long term return than lending it at a fixed rate of return to those businesses and governments.
So personally I advocate a 100% Global Equity allocation for a long term investment, the only reason for diluting a conviction in equities is the fear that for short term isolated periods, the pricing of equities falls on a market adjustment. Why should that fear exists unless it's a very short term investment, in which case 80/20 is an excessively high risk position.
The problem is, investors are directed towards investments that reflect their attitude to short term market fluctuations and recommend investments without ascertaining whether it is a long our short term investment. There is no logic in being averse to a fall in equities if they are to be held long term, yet if you are a long term investor but say you would be concerned if your investments suffer a material fall in value, you will be guided towards reducing a risk that you should not be prioritising. Unfortunately, investment business moves on annual performance figures so that's what investment firms focus on covering off, even for long term strategies.
The Pension Regulator has a "Trustee Toolkit" that confers certification of basic knowledge. The answer to one multi-answer question requires trustees to take on board that Bonds are lower "risk" than Equities without any attempt to identify who is taking on the "risk" (e.g employees, trustees, employer) or what sort of risk is being faced (e.g inflation, markets, funding etc).
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Own a US fund and you are very likely to be!kentaddick said:Hope nobody is a meta or Amazon shareholder…1 -
I understand zuckerberg’s determination to stick with the metaverse - Facebook is dead and the company needs to pivot and innovate to survive. It’s go broke or go home for the company imo.0
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Zynex up 16% today.
Can see no reason other than broker price target upgrade2 -
So Sandgaard's about $75M wealthier
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So a loaned striker from another League 1 club it is.Covered End said:So Sandgaard's about $75M wealthier3 -
bobmunro said:
So a loaned striker from another League 1 club it is.Covered End said:So Sandgaard's about $75M wealthier
I think TS owns about 16.1m shares, so up $1.30 makes his gain today about $21m. Defnitely a loan player then.
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