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The Run-In - Definitive Guide (almost)

The Prince-e-Paul
The Prince-e-Paul Posts: 6,688
in General Charlton
Saw this on Portsmouth linked news. Very good explanation of the permutations.

https://www.portsmouth.co.uk/sport/football/portsmouth-fc/play-offs-decoded-whats-now-required-for-portsmouth-charlton-athletic-blackpool-sunderland-oxford-united-and-lincoln-city-to-reach-the-top-six-3217272
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Comments

  • ForeverAddickted
    ForeverAddickted Posts: 94,323
    edited April 2021
    Difficult one to predict, think Oxford have too much to do

    Yet the form of Sunderland, Charlton, Portsmouth all seems to be failing right at the wrong time for them
  • Six-a-bag-of-nuts
    Six-a-bag-of-nuts Posts: 8,127
    ForeverAddickted said:
    Difficult one to predict, think Oxford have too much to do

    Yet the form of Sunderland, Charlton, Portsmouth all seems to be failing right at the wrong time for them
    In our hands, yet you wouldn't bank on us to beat Accrington let alone win all three.
    On the other hand there are four fingers and a thumb we are capable on our day.
    Too tight to call
  • North Lower Neil
    North Lower Neil Posts: 22,955
    I think Pompey will nick the final spot, us 7th, Oxford 8th.

    Hope I'm wrong.
  • shine166
    shine166 Posts: 13,922
    To go up, we'd need to win 5 of our next 6. I kinda hope we lose on Saturday and start preparing for next season now. 
  • ForeverAddickted
    ForeverAddickted Posts: 94,323
    shine166 said:
    To go up, we'd need to win 5 of our next 6. I kinda hope we lose on Saturday and start preparing for next season now. 
    To be fair I imagine Steve Gallen has a split personality at the moment

    The moment the window was closed he's probably been spending every minute of the day putting squads together for both the Championship and League One - If he's been sitting on the beach instead waiting to see what league we're in first, I'd want him sacked!!
  • shine166
    shine166 Posts: 13,922
    edited April 2021
    ForeverAddickted said:
    shine166 said:
    To go up, we'd need to win 5 of our next 6. I kinda hope we lose on Saturday and start preparing for next season now. 
    To be fair I imagine Steve Gallen has a split personality at the moment

    The moment the window was closed he's probably been spending every minute of the day putting squads together for both the Championship and League One - If he's been sitting on the beach instead waiting to see what league we're in first, I'd want him sacked!!
    Well yeah I very much doubt they are waiting until we are done, but there's a big gap between what each league needs... so working on both must be a nightmare. There's also which of our own players are offered deals or not too. We know chucks can do a job at this level, even when never fit.. but you wouldn't want him in your championship squad. 
  • CafcWest
    CafcWest Posts: 6,171
    We're all talking about making the playoffs...but does anyone really think we are good enough to win promotion!?  I'd love to think we could but I'm not sure we have the balls...
  • Addick Addict
    Addick Addict Posts: 39,795
    CafcWest said:
    We're all talking about making the playoffs...but does anyone really think we are good enough to win promotion!?  I'd love to think we could but I'm not sure we have the balls...
    I expect the fans of most of the other potential play-off contender are similarly nervous about their chances of going up given that none of them are on unbeaten runs of any significance: 

    Lincoln - D W W W L W
    Sunderland - L L L D D L
    Blackpool - D D W L L W
    Portsmouth - L D L L W D
    Oxford - L W W W L W
    Charlton - W W D L W D

     
  • 3G
    3G Posts: 730
    edited April 2021
    We're going to need something special to win our home games.....

    Get a crowd behind the West stand, match streamed on Big Dave's phone and cheer the team on from there (all whilst 2m away from another person of course and full face masks etc 😉) 
  • kentred2
    kentred2 Posts: 2,336
    Feeling confident re Charlton. We have never lost to Lincoln at home in the league(mind you we haven’t beaten them since 1961 in the league as not played them), never lost to Accrington  away (two games) and not lost at home to Hull since 1985! I need a job!
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  • LargeAddick
    LargeAddick Posts: 32,569
    shine166 said:
    To go up, we'd need to win 5 of our next 6. I kinda hope we lose on Saturday and start preparing for next season now. 
    to split hairs we don't, once in the play offs you don't actually need to score another goal.
  • Elthamaddick
    Elthamaddick Posts: 15,814
    shine166 said:
    To go up, we'd need to win 5 of our next 6. I kinda hope we lose on Saturday and start preparing for next season now. 
    see too many comments like this - why on earth would anyone want us to lose saturday ?!?! - people saying start preparing for next year like we're gonna stroll to automatics.....sod that, I want to go up this year, never mind the (different) squad issues that would bring.

    I think we'll win Saturday and then draw Tuesday and go down to the final day, whether we'll have enough or not remains to be seen (I think we do). But one thing you can guarantee, none of the other play off contenders would fancy facing us in the play offs I'd bet
  • Covered_End_Lad
    Covered_End_Lad Posts: 5,725
    In my head we have no chance. But then you look at it and if we beat Accrington on Saturday and Portsmouth and oxford lose we then only need 1 win from the final 2 games to guarantee play offs. 

    This league is is utter shite, sadly I think we will be here again next year.
  • ForeverAddickted
    ForeverAddickted Posts: 94,323
    edited April 2021
    kentred2 said:
    Feeling confident re Charlton. We have never lost to Lincoln at home in the league(mind you we haven’t beaten them since 1961 in the league as not played them), never lost to Accrington  away (two games) and not lost at home to Hull since 1985! I need a job!
    We had a 100% win record against Crewe before Tuesday
  • shine166
    shine166 Posts: 13,922
    LargeAddick said:
    shine166 said:
    To go up, we'd need to win 5 of our next 6. I kinda hope we lose on Saturday and start preparing for next season now. 
    to split hairs we don't, once in the play offs you don't actually need to score another goal.
    So we need to win out next 3 games and win 2 penalty shootouts ? I think that's even less likely than 5 from 6 in normal play lol  
  • shine166
    shine166 Posts: 13,922
    edited April 2021
    Elthamaddick said:
    shine166 said:
    To go up, we'd need to win 5 of our next 6. I kinda hope we lose on Saturday and start preparing for next season now. 
    see too many comments like this - why on earth would anyone want us to lose saturday ?!?! - people saying start preparing for next year like we're gonna stroll to automatics.....sod that, I want to go up this year, never mind the (different) squad issues that would bring.

    I think we'll win Saturday and then draw Tuesday and go down to the final day, whether we'll have enough or not remains to be seen (I think we do). But one thing you can guarantee, none of the other play off contenders would fancy facing us in the play offs I'd bet
    It's just realism, Plymouth was a blip in our favour and crewe was more like us. Obviously I want us to go up, but I'm bored of starting the season with excuses or on the backfoot. I never said its a gimme next year either.
  • golfaddick
    golfaddick Posts: 33,630
    shine166 said:
    LargeAddick said:
    shine166 said:
    To go up, we'd need to win 5 of our next 6. I kinda hope we lose on Saturday and start preparing for next season now. 
    to split hairs we don't, once in the play offs you don't actually need to score another goal.
    So we need to win out next 3 games and win 2 penalty shootouts ? I think that's even less likely than 5 from 6 in normal play lol  
    Hope to play Pompey in the semis & get Marquis to score an OG.
  • Athletico Charlton
    Athletico Charlton Posts: 14,277
    Other possible play off teams are Lincoln, Sunderland, Blackpool, Oxford and Pompey...

    Of course we can win them of we get there.  Tall order but fingers crossed.
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,770
    edited May 2021
    Pompey in the drivers seat. If they win next weekend, they’re in.

    If they fail to win, Oxford need to only better their result to jump above them.


    We have to win both games to have any chance - four points won’t be enough thanks to goal difference. Two wins and hope both Portsmouth and Oxford fail to win. It’s a big ask.
  • golfaddick
    golfaddick Posts: 33,630
    Callumcafc said:
    Pompey in the drivers seat. If they win next weekend, they’re in.

    If they fail to win, Oxford need to only better their result to jump above them.


    We have to win both games to have any chance - four points won’t be enough thanks to goal difference. Two wins and hope both Portsmouth and Oxford fail to win. It’s a big ask.
    Too big an ask.8

    I'm not even bothering to watch iplayer on Tuesday. Will follow it on Sky but can't watch another 90 mins of that rubbish.
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  • Dazzler21
    Dazzler21 Posts: 51,345
    golfaddick said:
    Callumcafc said:
    Pompey in the drivers seat. If they win next weekend, they’re in.

    If they fail to win, Oxford need to only better their result to jump above them.


    We have to win both games to have any chance - four points won’t be enough thanks to goal difference. Two wins and hope both Portsmouth and Oxford fail to win. It’s a big ask.
    Too big an ask.8

    I'm not even bothering to watch iplayer on Tuesday. Will follow it on Sky but can't watch another 90 mins of that rubbish.
    You know we're not on the BBC right?
  • Dave Rudd
    Dave Rudd Posts: 2,867
    Callumcafc said:
    Pompey in the drivers seat. If they win next weekend, they’re in.

    If they fail to win, Oxford need to only better their result to jump above them.


    We have to win both games to have any chance - four points won’t be enough thanks to goal difference. Two wins and hope both Portsmouth and Oxford fail to win. It’s a big ask.
    The simulations indicate that, even with two wins, we will only have a 41% chance of a Play-Off place.

    The one consolation is that we now know where we will be next season and can proceed accordingly.

    The failure to get rid of Bowyer at Christmas has cost Sandgaard a year of his seven-year plan.  What he and Adkins do next will be crucial if the dream is to unfold.
  • oohaahmortimer
    oohaahmortimer Posts: 34,150
    I thought 73 74 75 points were meant to be enough for the play offs 
  • golfaddick
    golfaddick Posts: 33,630
    oohaahmortimer said:
    I thought 73 74 75 points were meant to be enough for the play offs 
    We have some deluded fans on here. I got shouted down a few weeks ago when I said we needed at least 75 points. "Nah, you're wrong mate. In the past 72 or 73 has been enough". Yeh.....that might have been enough when the top 2 were getting 90+ points & therefore beating everyone around them. Not this season where the points have been spread out amongst everyone. 
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,770
    edited May 2021
    Don't get too ahead of yourselves. That number's still 73 and Pompey & Oxford haven't won next weekend yet. If we win both of our next games, get 74 points and miss out then that's very disappointing. It's a been a weird season all around.
  • iaitch
    iaitch Posts: 10,230
    We've won 6 home games all sesaon and now have to win two in a week and then hope other results go our way.
  • alan dugdale
    alan dugdale Posts: 3,077
    iaitch said:
    We've won 6 home games all sesaon and now have to win two in a week and then hope other results go our way.
    When you put it like that..
  • iaitch
    iaitch Posts: 10,230
    Miracles do happen I suppose!!!
  • Covered_End_Lad
    Covered_End_Lad Posts: 5,725
    Win on Tuesday and it goes to the final day, anything can happen in one round of games. If we beat hull and oxford and Portsmouth don’t win then we’re in playoffs.

    i really don’t think it’s going to happen but would be nice to still have a little hope/excitement on the final day even if it ends up short-lived.
  • iaitch
    iaitch Posts: 10,230
    edited May 2021
    Agree, you want to take it to the last game and have a bit of excitement.

    We've come so close but the last two drawn games may have just put it out of reach.

    Plus all the teams around us winning on Saturday didn't help.

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