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Has Bowyer lost it?
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I did some maths on a spreadsheet a while back and 1.6 gets you into the play offs every season (or at least nearly every season).2
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Why are those results being excluded though? Because it doesn't fit the argument? It happened and there's no reason it can't happen again - that's football, you go on bad runs and you go on good runs and once the season is over, those good and bad runs average out to your true final position.Dazzler21 said:
I think it's more the fact that the PPG is getting lower week on week, also bar the early spell that ended in the run we haven't managed an average of 1.75ppg in months.Callumcafc said:A lot of panicking here but no bad run lasts forever.We’re sitting at 1.51 ppg and season on season, 1.6 PPG has been enough to get into the playoffs.
We’re about two third of the way through the season so 1.75 ppg from here on will get us to the magic number. 29 points from the last 17 games.
When you're a good team in the middle of a poor run of form, it can be hard to see the good times returning. That's just human psychology. But it will happen, we will get a run of wins. Believe.1 -
I wasn't excluding them? I was stating that ever since the run the PPG has been in a steady decline.Callumcafc said:
Why are those results being excluded though? Because it doesn't fit the argument? It happened and there's no reason it can't happen again - that's football, you go on bad runs and you go on good runs and once the season is over, those good and bad runs average out to your true final position.Dazzler21 said:
I think it's more the fact that the PPG is getting lower week on week, also bar the early spell that ended in the run we haven't managed an average of 1.75ppg in months.Callumcafc said:A lot of panicking here but no bad run lasts forever.We’re sitting at 1.51 ppg and season on season, 1.6 PPG has been enough to get into the playoffs.
We’re about two third of the way through the season so 1.75 ppg from here on will get us to the magic number. 29 points from the last 17 games.
When you're a good team in the middle of a poor run of form, it can be hard to see the good times returning. That's just human psychology. But it will happen, we will get a run of wins. Believe.0 -
Last season it was usually high (around 1.7) but that's because they only played 75% of the season. That correlates with the theory that a full season is always about runs of good and bad form. Right now in 2020/21 it's at 1.7 ish after 28-30 games played but I would be shocked if it doesn't end up at 1.6 again.MuttleyCAFC said:I did some maths on a spreadsheet a while back and 1.6 gets you into the play offs every season (or at least nearly every season).
Some of those teams on 1.7+ would've dropped to 1.6 or lower while some teams at 1.5 would've been able to jump above them on 1.6+. Peterborough, Doncaster and Sunderland can consider themselves extremely unlucky that they missed out.
You only have to look at the lockdown success of Luton and Barnsley (at our expense) to see the runs of good and bad form in action.0 -
"bar the early spell ... we haven't managed an average of 1.75 ppg in months" sounds like exclusion...Dazzler21 said:
I wasn't excluding them? I was stating that ever since the run the PPG has been in a steady decline.Callumcafc said:
Why are those results being excluded though? Because it doesn't fit the argument? It happened and there's no reason it can't happen again - that's football, you go on bad runs and you go on good runs and once the season is over, those good and bad runs average out to your true final position.Dazzler21 said:
I think it's more the fact that the PPG is getting lower week on week, also bar the early spell that ended in the run we haven't managed an average of 1.75ppg in months.Callumcafc said:A lot of panicking here but no bad run lasts forever.We’re sitting at 1.51 ppg and season on season, 1.6 PPG has been enough to get into the playoffs.
We’re about two third of the way through the season so 1.75 ppg from here on will get us to the magic number. 29 points from the last 17 games.
When you're a good team in the middle of a poor run of form, it can be hard to see the good times returning. That's just human psychology. But it will happen, we will get a run of wins. Believe.0 -
But in those years bowyer hadn't overseen 4 months of mostly crap performancesCallumcafc said:
Why won't it? It happened in 2019 and in 2020.LittleAddick said:Yes a good run would get us back on track, but it isn't going to happen under bowyer3 -
Yes, that is why I did the maths. The PPGs of teams who hadn't played half their games was much higher than what records show they end up with. Before the season was stopped, it looked like Posh and Sunderland would move up and Wycombe were slipping.Callumcafc said:
Last season it was usually high (around 1.7) but that's because they only played 75% of the season. That correlates with the theory that a full season is always about runs of good and bad form. Right now in 2020/21 it's at 1.7 ish after 28-30 games played but I would be shocked if it doesn't end up at 1.6 again.MuttleyCAFC said:I did some maths on a spreadsheet a while back and 1.6 gets you into the play offs every season (or at least nearly every season).
Some of those teams on 1.7+ would've dropped to 1.6 or lower while some teams at 1.5 would've been able to jump above them on 1.6+. Peterborough, Doncaster and Sunderland can consider themselves extremely unlucky that they missed out.
You only have to look at the lockdown success of Luton and Barnsley (at our expense) to see the runs of good and bad form in action.1 -
Hold your heads in shame.Cafc43v3r said:
Bloody people having opinions and expressing them, on a football forum, shameful behaviour.Wheresmeticket? said:
Close this thread because I don't like it.TEL said:I think this thread is ridiculous and should be closed....football fans are so fickle, they expect loyalty by favourite players and get outraged when they get offered lucrative contracts, yet show no loyalty whatsoever when a few results dont go our way.
Get real and get behind the team....just shows how distracted everyone was by the Duchatelet era......Bowyer will turn it around, he stood by us when he could have moved on....some of you should hold your heads in shame.4 -
Callumcafc said:
"bar the early spell ... we haven't managed an average of 1.75 ppg in months" sounds like exclusion...Dazzler21 said:
I wasn't excluding them? I was stating that ever since the run the PPG has been in a steady decline.Callumcafc said:
Why are those results being excluded though? Because it doesn't fit the argument? It happened and there's no reason it can't happen again - that's football, you go on bad runs and you go on good runs and once the season is over, those good and bad runs average out to your true final position.Dazzler21 said:
I think it's more the fact that the PPG is getting lower week on week, also bar the early spell that ended in the run we haven't managed an average of 1.75ppg in months.Callumcafc said:A lot of panicking here but no bad run lasts forever.We’re sitting at 1.51 ppg and season on season, 1.6 PPG has been enough to get into the playoffs.
We’re about two third of the way through the season so 1.75 ppg from here on will get us to the magic number. 29 points from the last 17 games.
When you're a good team in the middle of a poor run of form, it can be hard to see the good times returning. That's just human psychology. But it will happen, we will get a run of wins. Believe.
But our current PPG is only as high as it is because of those games... To say I'm excluding it is incorrect. If the early spell were to have not happened, the PPG would be awfully low and Bowyer would have been fired before January!
It's interesting looking at the PPG game by game... It highlights two things Our PPG has been decreasing on a slow and steady trend and that 1.75 PPG wasn't as long ago as it feels.
Lose tonight and we'll have 1.467 PPG
Draw and we'll have 1.5 PPG
Win and 1.567
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All 3?Wheresmeticket? said:
Hold your heads in shame.Cafc43v3r said:
Bloody people having opinions and expressing them, on a football forum, shameful behaviour.Wheresmeticket? said:
Close this thread because I don't like it.TEL said:I think this thread is ridiculous and should be closed....football fans are so fickle, they expect loyalty by favourite players and get outraged when they get offered lucrative contracts, yet show no loyalty whatsoever when a few results dont go our way.
Get real and get behind the team....just shows how distracted everyone was by the Duchatelet era......Bowyer will turn it around, he stood by us when he could have moved on....some of you should hold your heads in shame.0 -
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When we went on our run we weren't playing well. It was never going to be sustainable1
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Looks a bit of a rubbish dot to dot if you ask me...Dazzler21 said:Callumcafc said:
"bar the early spell ... we haven't managed an average of 1.75 ppg in months" sounds like exclusion...Dazzler21 said:
I wasn't excluding them? I was stating that ever since the run the PPG has been in a steady decline.Callumcafc said:
Why are those results being excluded though? Because it doesn't fit the argument? It happened and there's no reason it can't happen again - that's football, you go on bad runs and you go on good runs and once the season is over, those good and bad runs average out to your true final position.Dazzler21 said:
I think it's more the fact that the PPG is getting lower week on week, also bar the early spell that ended in the run we haven't managed an average of 1.75ppg in months.Callumcafc said:A lot of panicking here but no bad run lasts forever.We’re sitting at 1.51 ppg and season on season, 1.6 PPG has been enough to get into the playoffs.
We’re about two third of the way through the season so 1.75 ppg from here on will get us to the magic number. 29 points from the last 17 games.
When you're a good team in the middle of a poor run of form, it can be hard to see the good times returning. That's just human psychology. But it will happen, we will get a run of wins. Believe.
But our current PPG is only as high as it is because of those games... To say I'm excluding it is incorrect. If the early spell were to have not happened, the PPG would be awfully low and Bowyer would have been fired before January!
It's interesting looking at the PPG game by game... It highlights two things Our PPG has been decreasing on a slow and steady trend and that 1.75 PPG wasn't as long ago as it feels (not sure why I have two two's in my PPG axis either... Bloody google shits).3 -
We did have that run where we were not conceding. If you are not conceding and you are averaging 1-2 goals then of course you are destined for a great run.0
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Just a gentle reminder we have won 18 games since mid October.
October 2019. It is not a blip.14 -
Great insight, can see how you were successful in running a team...MuttleyCAFC said:We did have that run where we were not conceding. If you are not conceding and you are averaging 1-2 goals then of course you are destined for a great run.2 -
If you take it from game day 11, after we were going to improve after the international break, its horrific.Dazzler21 said:Callumcafc said:
"bar the early spell ... we haven't managed an average of 1.75 ppg in months" sounds like exclusion...Dazzler21 said:
I wasn't excluding them? I was stating that ever since the run the PPG has been in a steady decline.Callumcafc said:
Why are those results being excluded though? Because it doesn't fit the argument? It happened and there's no reason it can't happen again - that's football, you go on bad runs and you go on good runs and once the season is over, those good and bad runs average out to your true final position.Dazzler21 said:
I think it's more the fact that the PPG is getting lower week on week, also bar the early spell that ended in the run we haven't managed an average of 1.75ppg in months.Callumcafc said:A lot of panicking here but no bad run lasts forever.We’re sitting at 1.51 ppg and season on season, 1.6 PPG has been enough to get into the playoffs.
We’re about two third of the way through the season so 1.75 ppg from here on will get us to the magic number. 29 points from the last 17 games.
When you're a good team in the middle of a poor run of form, it can be hard to see the good times returning. That's just human psychology. But it will happen, we will get a run of wins. Believe.
But our current PPG is only as high as it is because of those games... To say I'm excluding it is incorrect. If the early spell were to have not happened, the PPG would be awfully low and Bowyer would have been fired before January!
It's interesting looking at the PPG game by game... It highlights two things Our PPG has been decreasing on a slow and steady trend and that 1.75 PPG wasn't as long ago as it feels.
Lose tonight and we'll have 1.467 PPG
Draw and we'll have 1.5 PPG
Win and 1.5670 -
There is no narrative, only facts. We have been a losing team for well over a year fact, no amount of context or narrative can change that.Callumcafc said:
You're not talking about a run there, you're looking longer term and including results from a higher division because it fits the narrative that the Bowyer out crowd are pushing.J BLOCK said:
This one has lasted for over a year FYICallumcafc said:A lot of panicking here but no bad run lasts forever.We’re sitting at 1.51 ppg and season on season, 1.6 PPG has been enough to get into the playoffs.
We’re about two third of the way through the season so 1.75 ppg from here on will get us to the magic number. 29 points from the last 17 games.
Yes, overall our results have been poor since Christmas 2019 but surely by definition, a run is a short term set of results and the current poor run we're on started in December. Just as the good run we had earlier this season started in October and ended in November.
Unless you manage a once in a generation special season (2011/12 for example), you are going to have a season with a couple of decent runs of form and a couple of poor runs of form. It's where you end up after 46 games that counts.5 -
No comment I'll get told I don't like Bowyer... When in reality it's because I like the bloke that I don't want him to continue managing this run where our trend could have us finish around 1.25 PPGCafc43v3r said:
If you take it from game day 11, after we were going to improve after the international break, its horrific.Dazzler21 said:Callumcafc said:
"bar the early spell ... we haven't managed an average of 1.75 ppg in months" sounds like exclusion...Dazzler21 said:
I wasn't excluding them? I was stating that ever since the run the PPG has been in a steady decline.Callumcafc said:
Why are those results being excluded though? Because it doesn't fit the argument? It happened and there's no reason it can't happen again - that's football, you go on bad runs and you go on good runs and once the season is over, those good and bad runs average out to your true final position.Dazzler21 said:
I think it's more the fact that the PPG is getting lower week on week, also bar the early spell that ended in the run we haven't managed an average of 1.75ppg in months.Callumcafc said:A lot of panicking here but no bad run lasts forever.We’re sitting at 1.51 ppg and season on season, 1.6 PPG has been enough to get into the playoffs.
We’re about two third of the way through the season so 1.75 ppg from here on will get us to the magic number. 29 points from the last 17 games.
When you're a good team in the middle of a poor run of form, it can be hard to see the good times returning. That's just human psychology. But it will happen, we will get a run of wins. Believe.
But our current PPG is only as high as it is because of those games... To say I'm excluding it is incorrect. If the early spell were to have not happened, the PPG would be awfully low and Bowyer would have been fired before January!
It's interesting looking at the PPG game by game... It highlights two things Our PPG has been decreasing on a slow and steady trend and that 1.75 PPG wasn't as long ago as it feels.
Lose tonight and we'll have 1.467 PPG
Draw and we'll have 1.5 PPG
Win and 1.5672 -
About 3 months ago I said I want him to go before I start hating him. I don't hate him but he really is winding me up with some of the bollocks he comes out with.Dazzler21 said:
No comment I'll get told I don't like Bowyer... When in reality it's because I like the bloke that I don't want him to continue managing this run where our trend could have us finish around 1.25 PPGCafc43v3r said:
If you take it from game day 11, after we were going to improve after the international break, its horrific.Dazzler21 said:Callumcafc said:
"bar the early spell ... we haven't managed an average of 1.75 ppg in months" sounds like exclusion...Dazzler21 said:
I wasn't excluding them? I was stating that ever since the run the PPG has been in a steady decline.Callumcafc said:
Why are those results being excluded though? Because it doesn't fit the argument? It happened and there's no reason it can't happen again - that's football, you go on bad runs and you go on good runs and once the season is over, those good and bad runs average out to your true final position.Dazzler21 said:
I think it's more the fact that the PPG is getting lower week on week, also bar the early spell that ended in the run we haven't managed an average of 1.75ppg in months.Callumcafc said:A lot of panicking here but no bad run lasts forever.We’re sitting at 1.51 ppg and season on season, 1.6 PPG has been enough to get into the playoffs.
We’re about two third of the way through the season so 1.75 ppg from here on will get us to the magic number. 29 points from the last 17 games.
When you're a good team in the middle of a poor run of form, it can be hard to see the good times returning. That's just human psychology. But it will happen, we will get a run of wins. Believe.
But our current PPG is only as high as it is because of those games... To say I'm excluding it is incorrect. If the early spell were to have not happened, the PPG would be awfully low and Bowyer would have been fired before January!
It's interesting looking at the PPG game by game... It highlights two things Our PPG has been decreasing on a slow and steady trend and that 1.75 PPG wasn't as long ago as it feels.
Lose tonight and we'll have 1.467 PPG
Draw and we'll have 1.5 PPG
Win and 1.5672 -
It sounds simple but it is complicated because it is about how you achieve it.cafcfan1990 said:
Great insight, can see how you were successful in running a team...MuttleyCAFC said:We did have that run where we were not conceding. If you are not conceding and you are averaging 1-2 goals then of course you are destined for a great run.0 -
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I feel sorry for him , I want him , as I'm sure we all do, to turn it around and rip this shithouse league a new one starting from tonight ...
My heart pangs at the thought of him just dying this slow painful death of shitness
Come on Bowyer pull it together ffs7 -
Probably some similarity between tonight's game for Bowyer and when Chris Powell was manager, the Cardiff game that ended 5-4.
Both managers were/are under some pressure going into those games. Powell's position was just starting to get questioned after a bad run of form - and correct me if I'm wrong but I think there were rumours floating around he might have been sacked if we had lost that game - and Bowyer is a similar situation tonight.
The team Powell picked that night played their hearts out for him. 2-0 down, they gave everything and played superbly to go 5-2 up before letting in 2 late goals.
Let's see what the 11 Bowyer picks tonight does for him.0 -
100% agree. I've been vocal that I believe Bowyer should've gone weeks ago. I'd really love him to turn it around, I just don't think he's got it in him. I feel we're passed the point of no returnoohaahmortimer said:I feel sorry for him , I want him , as I'm sure we all do, to turn it around and rip this shithouse league a new one starting from tonight ...
My heart pangs at the thought of him just dying this slow painful death of shitness
Come on Bowyer pull it together ffs1 -
This was said by a number of people about Rochdale as well.Fortune 82nd Minute said:Probably some similarity between tonight's game for Bowyer and when Chris Powell was manager, the Cardiff game that ended 5-4.
Both managers were/are under some pressure going into those games. Powell's position was just starting to get questioned after a bad run of form - and correct me if I'm wrong but I think there were rumours floating around he might have been sacked if we had lost that game - and Bowyer is a similar situation tonight.
The team Powell picked that night played their hearts out for him. 2-0 down, they gave everything and played superbly to go 5-2 up before letting in 2 late goals.
Let's see what the 11 Bowyer picks tonight does for him.0 -
As this bad run goes on and on, it's hard not to conclude that the good spell of form around October was the blip and that our form since then more reflects our true level. It's not as if we've played well since November and deserved more points, or that we've shown recent signs of improvement.
In the 4 games in February, since the window closed (i.e. since we had another chance to sort out our squad), we've taken 4 points, 1ppg is relegation form
In the 11 games in 2021 we've taken 12 points, 1.09 ppg is still barely better than relegation form8 -
I’m not really seeing these comparisons between Bowyer and Powell in regards to the pressure/form.
Powell was struggling in the Championship in his final season, but the team for the most part were still battling and we had characters who were giving their all. I still had faith in that team and the manager, even when the results were not going our way.It feels like a much different situation at the moment where we are going into League One games against the likes of Fleetwood, Gillingham etc knowing that we’re probably going to be abject more often than not.The players do not seem motivated under Bowyer as they were under Powell, even in the tough times. A couple of years ago, Bowyer absolutely had that team spirit in place, but for whatever reason, it’s completely vanished and he doesn’t really seem to be doing much to try and change it.1 -
Bowyer hasn't got the know how to pull us out of this dive. Just go 4-4-2 with purrington left back and use maatsen as a sub for millar. Put DJ up top with stockley.0
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1 up top against burton? Wow2
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@MuttleyCAFC
I love your passion about Cafc and enjoy your posts.
Tonight feels like an important evening for Lee Bowyer and our diminishing hopes for this season.
We need a boost and I don't mean the second dose of Vaccine or even the first.
Thomas Sandgaard is the main man to impress and 3 points is what he wants.0
This discussion has been closed.
