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Savings and Investments thread
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Very optimistic about this year for the UK equities but must admit have been selling a bit into this rally as I think there should be a pull back soon and better levels. Made a lot of last year's oil losses back the last couple of months!0
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Here's my thinking ... :
- short term - reality check
- rising pound headwind for FTSE until it settles in its ‘normal’ range - 1.40-1.50?
- over-heated US markets correct as earnings season ’disappoints’ and massive leverage unwinds
- Covid hangover - business failures, redundancies as support unwinds and businesses have to make tough decisions
- budget uncertainty in UK holds back spending and investment
- Covid winners unwind a little/blue wave hits US tech in the short term
- longer term - very positive
- UK equities converge with other major indexes
- loss of uncertainty
- vaccine roll out
- Brexit trade deals trickle through
- inward investment/m&a before pound appreciates too much
- covid affected survivors rebound
- tourism & travel
- hospitality (restaurants, hotels)
- media
- consumer credit??
- tech and biotech march on after a short correction
- China suffers from US pressure and re-location of supply chains
- oil rebounds
- gold - appreciates due to government spending or loose fiscal policy (sounds like it's going to be the latter after today's result)
- property - mad but I still see going up because of economy rebound and so much cheap money and policy support
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I think you've answered your own question. Your ETF's are up 10% whereas my "fund" is up 24%. The difference in cost (AMC + other costs) will probably be less than 1% between the 2. So, I have to ask myself.....is it worth paying an extra 1% in charges to get a 14% extra return. I'm sure all the posters on here that are in BG funds will know the answer to that one.balham red said:
Up 24%! I'm about 80%+ invested in FTSE ETF as I took your advice on the UK market and am about 10% up on that since Oct. And I'm well happy with that so thanks!golfaddick said:
The above was posted back in October - never like to gloat on here but @jimmymelrose does live in a non-vac country....😄. Heard today that France has vaccinated less than a 1000 people so far. To put that in context Israel have vaccinated 1.5 million.jimmymelrose said:It's funny how Golfie is optimistic about the economy and has faith in the markets whatever the situation, whereas in football matters he is so pessimistic.
I see things getting far far worse in the immediate future with no daylight in sight
regarding investments and I don't even want to look at them.
A vaccine is not on the way. You need to stop believing the TV. A few months ago you were believing in promises for this December! My bet is that a vaccine won't be available until the middle of 2022, and even then we we still be in the shit for ages. Look at other diseases: vaccines do not mean eradication.
I have also been advocating for the past 3 months to go overweight in UK equities as we have been lagging behind most other markets and was due a "bounce". Glad my portfolio is around 25% in the UK - one fund I switch into back in Oct is Premier Miton UK smaller companies. Up 24% since then. And people like tracker funds because they are cheap....😂😂😂
So from your last comment you don't rate tracker ETFs then? As an expat it seems like a decent option and relatively riskless.
As an aside - I don't know what non UK residents have available to them so there might be a reason why you buy EFT's. But if you have the choice between a tracker fund & a "named" fund you might want to ask yourself why you wouldn't chose the latter.1 -
The problem for expats, is this, and I’m speaking as someone who has scoured the globe to resolve the problem. The UK is easily the most developed market for retail investors (i.e. punters). There is nothing like H-L for choice of funds, and easy to access info on fund charges and holdings. They could have taken Europe by storm if they had wanted to, there was nothing, legislatively to stop them. Hargreaves of course had a different personal agenda which presumably ruled out this option.golfaddick said:
I think you've answered your own question. Your ETF's are up 10% whereas my "fund" is up 24%. The difference in cost (AMC + other costs) will probably be less than 1% between the 2. So, I have to ask myself.....is it worth paying an extra 1% in charges to get a 14% extra return. I'm sure all the posters on here that are in BG funds will know the answer to that one.balham red said:
Up 24%! I'm about 80%+ invested in FTSE ETF as I took your advice on the UK market and am about 10% up on that since Oct. And I'm well happy with that so thanks!golfaddick said:
The above was posted back in October - never like to gloat on here but @jimmymelrose does live in a non-vac country....😄. Heard today that France has vaccinated less than a 1000 people so far. To put that in context Israel have vaccinated 1.5 million.jimmymelrose said:It's funny how Golfie is optimistic about the economy and has faith in the markets whatever the situation, whereas in football matters he is so pessimistic.
I see things getting far far worse in the immediate future with no daylight in sight
regarding investments and I don't even want to look at them.
A vaccine is not on the way. You need to stop believing the TV. A few months ago you were believing in promises for this December! My bet is that a vaccine won't be available until the middle of 2022, and even then we we still be in the shit for ages. Look at other diseases: vaccines do not mean eradication.
I have also been advocating for the past 3 months to go overweight in UK equities as we have been lagging behind most other markets and was due a "bounce". Glad my portfolio is around 25% in the UK - one fund I switch into back in Oct is Premier Miton UK smaller companies. Up 24% since then. And people like tracker funds because they are cheap....😂😂😂
So from your last comment you don't rate tracker ETFs then? As an expat it seems like a decent option and relatively riskless.
As an aside - I don't know what non UK residents have available to them so there might be a reason why you buy EFT's. But if you have the choice between a tracker fund & a "named" fund you might want to ask yourself why you wouldn't chose the latter.
I recently opened an account on Degiro, a Dutch platform, but all I have from there are tracker ETFs from Vanguard. They offer active ETFs but from people I have often never heard of, and more importantly cannot easily get info on. The main advantage of Degiro for me is, its a euro hedge. I have a FTSE 250 tracker ETF holding, but in euros.
I’ve come to the conclusion that the UK is a world leader in this ( I expect the USA is probably similar). The thing is, not enough ordinary people get the basic insights that allow them to confidently use these things ( or indeed to confidently deal with an IFA). Someone posted a while back that there should be school education on the basics of this, and they were bang on. Many more ordinary people should have been able to look at the gains many of us were happily surveying at the end of the year.2 -
Twas me Moby, I can’t quite believe how Bitcoin & ARB have moved upwards, I bought into ARB @ 9 pence last summer IPO original price was 16 pence so saw some value, now not far off £1.00 & still holding fair way to go yet IMHO, regrettably though not in an ISA (full) or my SIPP so a CGT liability. It’s bleedin bonkers, Bitcoin now $35k for a coin that doesn’t actually exist & ARB mine these non-existent coins. Forecast for Bitcoin is +$100 by some brokers.MOBY DUCK said:golfaddick said:"one fund I switch into back in Oct is Premier Miton UK smaller companies. Up 24% since then.”
Class A or B? Income or Accumulation?
I’ve been a long time lurker on this thread and the Crypto one without ever posting, so I appreciate a lot of your discussions.
I can’t remember who or where someone recommended the ARB Blockchain shares - but a big thanks to you - my modest punt on Christmas Eve has jumped 320% since👍
Hey ho despite my crypto ignorance I will take the wonga when the price time is right, #Rob7Lee gave out some tips last year which I picked up on & made few bob so nice to share as well.That’s why this thread is so good, no rampers or bull shitters just good honest advice & opinion.
p.s I like Red Wine 😄😄😄0 -
Yes you're in, but 9,800 - reallyStrikerFirmani said:
Those who've entered with a day to go;oohaahmortimer Thread Killer No.1 in South London blackpool72 CharltonKerry HardyAddick Rob7Lee RalphMilne Covered End StrikerFirmani Fortune 82nd Minute gunnessaddick LargeAddick WishIdStayedInThe Pub Exiledin Manchester valleynick66 Bangkokaddick Huskaris Daarrrzzettbum bobmunro MrOneLung fat man on a moped
Those who previously entered last year but have yet to do so this year;@TelMc32 CAFCsayer Er_Be_Ab_Pl_Wo_Wo_Ch Gary Poole golfaddick happy valley meldrew66 PragueAddick Salad wwaddick 0 -
There is a lot of sense of selling some of your holding & crystalisng the gain - especially before 5th April. Everyone has a CGT allowance of £12500 & once you go past a tax year it's gone.Daarrzzetbum said:
Twas me Moby, I can’t quite believe how Bitcoin & ARB have moved upwards, I bought into ARB @ 9 pence last summer IPO original price was 16 pence so saw some value, now not far off £1.00 & still holding fair way to go yet IMHO, regrettably though not in an ISA (full) or my SIPP so a CGT liability. It’s bleedin bonkers, Bitcoin now $35k for a coin that doesn’t actually exist & ARB mine these non-existent coins. Forecast for Bitcoin is +$100 by some brokers.MOBY DUCK said:golfaddick said:"one fund I switch into back in Oct is Premier Miton UK smaller companies. Up 24% since then.”
Class A or B? Income or Accumulation?
I’ve been a long time lurker on this thread and the Crypto one without ever posting, so I appreciate a lot of your discussions.
I can’t remember who or where someone recommended the ARB Blockchain shares - but a big thanks to you - my modest punt on Christmas Eve has jumped 320% since👍
Hey ho despite my crypto ignorance I will take the wonga when the price time is right, #Rob7Lee gave out some tips last year which I picked up on & made few bob so nice to share as well.That’s why this thread is so good, no rampers or bull shitters just good honest advice & opinion.
p.s I like Red Wine 😄😄😄
Also good just to take some profit & re-invest into something else. You never know what is around the corner & you'd be pig sick if it all goes south & you find in 3 months it's back down to 16p again.4 -
Cheers Golfie it’s defo squeaky bum time re when I pull the trigger 1)re profit expectations & 2) minimising my CGT liability.golfaddick said:
There is a lot of sense of selling some of your holding & crystalisng the gain - especially before 5th April. Everyone has a CGT allowance of £12500 & once you go past a tax year it's gone.Daarrzzetbum said:
Twas me Moby, I can’t quite believe how Bitcoin & ARB have moved upwards, I bought into ARB @ 9 pence last summer IPO original price was 16 pence so saw some value, now not far off £1.00 & still holding fair way to go yet IMHO, regrettably though not in an ISA (full) or my SIPP so a CGT liability. It’s bleedin bonkers, Bitcoin now $35k for a coin that doesn’t actually exist & ARB mine these non-existent coins. Forecast for Bitcoin is +$100 by some brokers.MOBY DUCK said:golfaddick said:"one fund I switch into back in Oct is Premier Miton UK smaller companies. Up 24% since then.”
Class A or B? Income or Accumulation?
I’ve been a long time lurker on this thread and the Crypto one without ever posting, so I appreciate a lot of your discussions.
I can’t remember who or where someone recommended the ARB Blockchain shares - but a big thanks to you - my modest punt on Christmas Eve has jumped 320% since👍
Hey ho despite my crypto ignorance I will take the wonga when the price time is right, #Rob7Lee gave out some tips last year which I picked up on & made few bob so nice to share as well.That’s why this thread is so good, no rampers or bull shitters just good honest advice & opinion.
p.s I like Red Wine 😄😄😄
Also good just to take some profit & re-invest into something else. You never know what is around the corner & you'd be pig sick if it all goes south & you find in 3 months it's back down to 16p again.
As you say it’s not propa profit until you press that sell button, until then it’s false ego.0 -
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If you don't really want to sell, Just sell enough to use up your CGT allowance a couple of days before the end of the tax year, can always buy them back a couple of days later and reset clock.Daarrzzetbum said:
Cheers Golfie it’s defo squeaky bum time re when I pull the trigger 1)re profit expectations & 2) minimising my CGT liability.golfaddick said:
There is a lot of sense of selling some of your holding & crystalisng the gain - especially before 5th April. Everyone has a CGT allowance of £12500 & once you go past a tax year it's gone.Daarrzzetbum said:
Twas me Moby, I can’t quite believe how Bitcoin & ARB have moved upwards, I bought into ARB @ 9 pence last summer IPO original price was 16 pence so saw some value, now not far off £1.00 & still holding fair way to go yet IMHO, regrettably though not in an ISA (full) or my SIPP so a CGT liability. It’s bleedin bonkers, Bitcoin now $35k for a coin that doesn’t actually exist & ARB mine these non-existent coins. Forecast for Bitcoin is +$100 by some brokers.MOBY DUCK said:golfaddick said:"one fund I switch into back in Oct is Premier Miton UK smaller companies. Up 24% since then.”
Class A or B? Income or Accumulation?
I’ve been a long time lurker on this thread and the Crypto one without ever posting, so I appreciate a lot of your discussions.
I can’t remember who or where someone recommended the ARB Blockchain shares - but a big thanks to you - my modest punt on Christmas Eve has jumped 320% since👍
Hey ho despite my crypto ignorance I will take the wonga when the price time is right, #Rob7Lee gave out some tips last year which I picked up on & made few bob so nice to share as well.That’s why this thread is so good, no rampers or bull shitters just good honest advice & opinion.
p.s I like Red Wine 😄😄😄
Also good just to take some profit & re-invest into something else. You never know what is around the corner & you'd be pig sick if it all goes south & you find in 3 months it's back down to 16p again.
As you say it’s not propa profit until you press that sell button, until then it’s false ego.
But as Golfie says, i'd be tempted to take some profit, when i've had ones like that i've cashed enough to get my initial investment back then every penny is profit. Always nice to see!1 -
Thanks. Have dropped you a note.Rob7Lee said:1 -
golfaddick said:
I think you've answered your own question. Your ETF's are up 10% whereas my "fund" is up 24%. The difference in cost (AMC + other costs) will probably be less than 1% between the 2. So, I have to ask myself.....is it worth paying an extra 1% in charges to get a 14% extra return. I'm sure all the posters on here that are in BG funds will know the answer to that one.balham red said:
Up 24%! I'm about 80%+ invested in FTSE ETF as I took your advice on the UK market and am about 10% up on that since Oct. And I'm well happy with that so thanks!golfaddick said:
The above was posted back in October - never like to gloat on here but @jimmymelrose does live in a non-vac country....😄. Heard today that France has vaccinated less than a 1000 people so far. To put that in context Israel have vaccinated 1.5 million.jimmymelrose said:It's funny how Golfie is optimistic about the economy and has faith in the markets whatever the situation, whereas in football matters he is so pessimistic.
I see things getting far far worse in the immediate future with no daylight in sight
regarding investments and I don't even want to look at them.
A vaccine is not on the way. You need to stop believing the TV. A few months ago you were believing in promises for this December! My bet is that a vaccine won't be available until the middle of 2022, and even then we we still be in the shit for ages. Look at other diseases: vaccines do not mean eradication.
I have also been advocating for the past 3 months to go overweight in UK equities as we have been lagging behind most other markets and was due a "bounce". Glad my portfolio is around 25% in the UK - one fund I switch into back in Oct is Premier Miton UK smaller companies. Up 24% since then. And people like tracker funds because they are cheap....😂😂😂
So from your last comment you don't rate tracker ETFs then? As an expat it seems like a decent option and relatively riskless.
As an aside - I don't know what non UK residents have available to them so there might be a reason why you buy EFT's. But if you have the choice between a tracker fund & a "named" fund you might want to ask yourself why you wouldn't chose the latter.My Saxobank offshore account has only recently introduced a number of "named" funds onto its platform and I have just sent some additional GBP to invest in one or two Baillie Gifford funds. But many platforms don't offer this. They are more expensive to buy but, as you said, the difference in return makes it very viable.I could put everything into two or three funds but I like the challenge of trying to beat the markets by buying and selling ETFs and a few stocks. It becomes a hobby as well as an investment. I only have one tracker in my portfolio, the rest are more specific and mostly USD.My QROPS pension is now nearly all in the type of fund you've mentioned (Brooks Macdonald) but my best performer is a US based ETF!0 -
@balham red (and any other expats with the same problem). Do you by chance still have a UK bank account, even if dormant? If so, you can use H-L (and any of several equally good UK platforms).
If not, another interesting thing that occurs to me is what H-L might say to a bank account from one of the more flexible challenger banks, e.g Revolut or Transferwise if they get a banking licence. In the small print, H-L assert that their service is open to anyone who is EEA resident, but 99% of them can't open a UK bank account, so that was always a bad joke (I tried to open a separate account for my wife there).0 -
There are tax implications of doing this as an expat.................... and for that reason i'm out.PragueAddick said:@balham red (and any other expats with the same problem). Do you by chance still have a UK bank account, even if dormant? If so, you can use H-L (and any of several equally good UK platforms).
If not, another interesting thing that occurs to me is what H-L might say to a bank account from one of the more flexible challenger banks, e.g Revolut or Transferwise if they get a banking licence. In the small print, H-L assert that their service is open to anyone who is EEA resident, but 99% of them can't open a UK bank account, so that was always a bad joke (I tried to open a separate account for my wife there).1 -
QatarNapsy said:
There are tax implications of doing this as an expat.................... and for that reason i'm out.PragueAddick said:@balham red (and any other expats with the same problem). Do you by chance still have a UK bank account, even if dormant? If so, you can use H-L (and any of several equally good UK platforms).
If not, another interesting thing that occurs to me is what H-L might say to a bank account from one of the more flexible challenger banks, e.g Revolut or Transferwise if they get a banking licence. In the small print, H-L assert that their service is open to anyone who is EEA resident, but 99% of them can't open a UK bank account, so that was always a bad joke (I tried to open a separate account for my wife there).That's why I use Saxo. Interactive is another good platform but they deemed n]me as too inexperienced as a trader when I tried to sign up with them a few years ago. Their loss as I have done many trades through Saxo.There's a strong chance I'll be back in the UK from autumn; maybe permanently though for at least two years. I'd guess I'd have to declare any dividends through the platform even if I don't take any cash out. But I don't really need to think about that until the 2021-2022 tax return.0 -
Well yes, as I said, I pay UK tax ( as well as Czech tax). Not sure what implications there would be beyond paying tax on dividends, possibly in the country of residence, but also depends where you are resident. If you are not ordinarily resident in UK you dont pay CGT, except on property. Anyway its not *advice*, of course, just something to mention as I am extremely glad I have been able to do it.QatarNapsy said:
There are tax implications of doing this as an expat.................... and for that reason i'm out.PragueAddick said:@balham red (and any other expats with the same problem). Do you by chance still have a UK bank account, even if dormant? If so, you can use H-L (and any of several equally good UK platforms).
If not, another interesting thing that occurs to me is what H-L might say to a bank account from one of the more flexible challenger banks, e.g Revolut or Transferwise if they get a banking licence. In the small print, H-L assert that their service is open to anyone who is EEA resident, but 99% of them can't open a UK bank account, so that was always a bad joke (I tried to open a separate account for my wife there).0 -
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Cheers Daarrzzetbum,Daarrzzetbum said:Twas me Moby, I can’t quite believe how Bitcoin & ARB have moved upwards, I bought into ARB @ 9 pence last summer IPO original price was 16 pence so saw some value, now not far off £1.00 & still holding fair way to go yet IMHO...
At one point ARB hit 1.30 today!! Bonkers.
I only had a cheap punt on a 1000 ARB shares at 0.17p and cashed out my original investments worth at the start of this week. Smarts a bit having now missed out on more monster rises, but my remaining total is now 100% pure profit.
How far do you think they might go?
I guess they effectively track Bitcoin so equally volatile? Being a ‘mining’ company there might be a bit of ‘lag’ over the currency market and give us a small window to react in? What sort of figures are you aiming/ hoping for?
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Might want to rename this thread "Savings, Investments & Gambling" if we are seriously going to discuss bitcoins & 'mining" 🙄3
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Apologies if it’s getting in the way of PB ‘prize’ boasts and FTSE predictions. Was only using this thread as ARB shares are listed on HL so I thought of it more as a ‘shares’ investment than a Crypto gamble. I’ll move my questions over to the Crypto’s thread.
As far as real mining goes, I’m keeping an eye on Glencore (GLEN) - Allegedly ethically run with no child labour and a contract in the pipeline with Tesla to supply Cobalt. Could be worth keeping an eye on.1 -
Thanks for all the entries for 30th June, few hours left to get an entry in, those who ave previously but not yet for this year;
CAFCsayer Gary Poole happy valley meldrew66 PragueAddick Salad wwaddick
Come on @PragueAddick you know you want to0 -
So the day after we have had an "insurrection" in America, the Dow is up 225 points and the Nasdaq 300 points!
It all makes little sense to me!
All I would say is looking at the current prices of the main shares in the BG America fund (Tesla for example is up 7 per cent at the moment, Shopify up 6 per cent and the Trade Desk up 15 per cent) is @mendonca is going to have a very pleasant surprise in the next day or so!
This can't go on. Surely.1 -
Watching a webinar by JP Morgan today & their thoughts on worldwide indices atm, based on p/e ratios is thus:Fortune 82nd Minute said:So the day after we have had an "insurrection" in America, the Dow is up 225 points and the Nasdaq 300 points!
It all makes little sense to me!
All I would say is looking at the current prices of the main shares in the BG America fund (Tesla for example is up 7 per cent at the moment, Shopify up 6 per cent and the Trade Desk up 15 per cent) is @mendonca is going to have a very pleasant surprise in the next day or so!
This can't go on. Surely.
US overheated
UK underheated
Europe slightly overheated
Asia. underheated
The surge in US equities over the past 12-18 months is worrying, especially as the last 9 months has mainly come from tech stocks. A bubble has to burst sometime, just have to work out when.
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Thanks.golfaddick said:
Watching a webinar by JP Morgan today & their thoughts on worldwide indices atm, based on p/e ratios is thus:Fortune 82nd Minute said:So the day after we have had an "insurrection" in America, the Dow is up 225 points and the Nasdaq 300 points!
It all makes little sense to me!
All I would say is looking at the current prices of the main shares in the BG America fund (Tesla for example is up 7 per cent at the moment, Shopify up 6 per cent and the Trade Desk up 15 per cent) is @mendonca is going to have a very pleasant surprise in the next day or so!
This can't go on. Surely.
US overheated
UK underheated
Europe slightly overheated
Asia. underheated
The surge in US equities over the past 12-18 months is worrying, especially as the last 9 months has mainly come from tech stocks. A bubble has to burst sometime, just have to work out when.
Please let us know when the bubble is about to burst!0 -
Preferably a week before :-) i'm already trimming some of mine/taking profit, UK & Asia it is!Fortune 82nd Minute said:
Thanks.golfaddick said:
Watching a webinar by JP Morgan today & their thoughts on worldwide indices atm, based on p/e ratios is thus:Fortune 82nd Minute said:So the day after we have had an "insurrection" in America, the Dow is up 225 points and the Nasdaq 300 points!
It all makes little sense to me!
All I would say is looking at the current prices of the main shares in the BG America fund (Tesla for example is up 7 per cent at the moment, Shopify up 6 per cent and the Trade Desk up 15 per cent) is @mendonca is going to have a very pleasant surprise in the next day or so!
This can't go on. Surely.
US overheated
UK underheated
Europe slightly overheated
Asia. underheated
The surge in US equities over the past 12-18 months is worrying, especially as the last 9 months has mainly come from tech stocks. A bubble has to burst sometime, just have to work out when.
Please let us know when the bubble is about to burst!0 -
Thanks. It certainly makes wfh a tad more interesting watching these random markets!
Annoyingly I sold Matthews Small China and LF Ruffer Gold about a month ago as wanted funds I actually know about the industries/companies/political and economic situations etc. Surprise surprise they are both up about 12pc since. That was not expected or predicted at all but take the ups and downs of personal decision making.0 -
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