Barnsley are Favourites..... Really!

Football for a fiver, Kids for a quid, anything with "Operation" in the title near enough guarantees defeat.

The Barnsley game is a free-ticket, fill-the-house special ...

Nailed on defeat.

☹

ValleyGary said:

shine166 said:

That's where the bets have gone, so they are the odds. 

Very rare that football match odds change from when the book is opened. The market isn’t as volatile as say next manager odds, where inside info can come from and so any bet changes the odds.

Would disagree with this comment, very few punters are on this early for football games outside Premier league. Prices are up for all Saturdays championship fixtures. These can and will change following the virtual complete midweek fixture list. 

RaplhMilne said:

ValleyGary said:

shine166 said:

That's where the bets have gone, so they are the odds. 

Very rare that football match odds change from when the book is opened. The market isn’t as volatile as say next manager odds, where inside info can come from and so any bet changes the odds.

Would disagree with this comment, very few punters are on this early for football games outside Premier league. Prices are up for all Saturdays championship fixtures. These can and will change following the virtual complete midweek fixture list. 

As Charlton 7/4 with William Hill.  I can guarantee you they are completely oblivious to our injury situation, and have no idea that we have potentially 3/4 of our best players being available, and the promise of incoming players. That price is based on one win in 17 games, and a handful of draws.  So in reality it’s a good price and could be value. Because even though the information is public domain, they are only looking at our past. Not our future.  However, am wary that Bowyer now has a reputation of not putting players back into the side. We could see a super strong bench, all coming on after Barnsley have gone in front. 

If all our bench come on during the Barnsley game, I bet we win!

Happy for us to be underdogs.

That is when we are at our best historically.

All this 'Operation Barnsley' type stuff concerns me though because we always mess those up.

RaplhMilne said:

Addick Addict said:

We've won 1/17 whereas Barnsley have won 5/13 including at Millwall. We've both drawn 9/29 this season so, from a purely statistical perspective, the draw at 13/5 is probably the only bit of value.

Those statistics don’t hold up. Because of the variable which is that throughout that period we have fielded a severely weakened team, where as Barnsley’s has remained relatively consistent, and is likely to continue in that vain this weekend. The fact that we could effectively field a vastly improved team, will skew the pure statistics. 

Therefore were we to not have, Bonne, Taylor, Cullen, Williams an anybody new available. Then the stats would point to a draw. 

But, equally, we played Barnsley during a period when they had no wins from 18 and we were unbeaten with our team the strongest we've had all season and yet we drew with them:

Phillips
Solly (Oshilaja)
Pearce
Lockyer
Purrington
Cullen
Pratley (Bonne)
Gallagher
Williams
Leko (Aneke)
Taylor

Bet the odds are different once the window has closed and we have 4 or 5 new bodies in

ValleyGary said:

RaplhMilne said:

ValleyGary said:

shine166 said:

That's where the bets have gone, so they are the odds. 

Very rare that football match odds change from when the book is opened. The market isn’t as volatile as say next manager odds, where inside info can come from and so any bet changes the odds.

Would disagree with this comment, very few punters are on this early for football games outside Premier league. Prices are up for all Saturdays championship fixtures. These can and will change following the virtual complete midweek fixture list. 

As Charlton 7/4 with William Hill.  I can guarantee you they are completely oblivious to our injury situation, and have no idea that we have potentially 3/4 of our best players being available, and the promise of incoming players. That price is based on one win in 17 games, and a handful of draws.  So in reality it’s a good price and could be value. Because even though the information is public domain, they are only looking at our past. Not our future.  However, am wary that Bowyer now has a reputation of not putting players back into the side. We could see a super strong bench, all coming on after Barnsley have gone in front. 

Perhaps @bobmunro can advise how his mob work, but id be very surprised if a billion pound betting firm didn't have researchers advising the traders of clubs squads at championship level.

Prices may change slightly, but the booked is opened with form etc in mind, not on 'where the bets have gone'.

ValleyGary said:

RaplhMilne said:

ValleyGary said:

shine166 said:

That's where the bets have gone, so they are the odds. 

Very rare that football match odds change from when the book is opened. The market isn’t as volatile as say next manager odds, where inside info can come from and so any bet changes the odds.

Would disagree with this comment, very few punters are on this early for football games outside Premier league. Prices are up for all Saturdays championship fixtures. These can and will change following the virtual complete midweek fixture list. 

As Charlton 7/4 with William Hill.  I can guarantee you they are completely oblivious to our injury situation, and have no idea that we have potentially 3/4 of our best players being available, and the promise of incoming players. That price is based on one win in 17 games, and a handful of draws.  So in reality it’s a good price and could be value. Because even though the information is public domain, they are only looking at our past. Not our future.  However, am wary that Bowyer now has a reputation of not putting players back into the side. We could see a super strong bench, all coming on after Barnsley have gone in front. 

Perhaps @bobmunro can advise how his mob work, but id be very surprised if a billion pound betting firm didn't have researchers advising the traders of clubs squads at championship level.

Prices may change slightly, but the booked is opened with form etc in mind, not on 'where the bets have gone'.

There is very little information that traders don't have in their possession and are usually the first to hear about anything such is their network of contacts. They are only vulnerable when it gets to the lower reaches of non league football when they can get picked off as someone inside will know that there is a virus that has hit the club for example. Even then there will be heavy restrictions on what they are prepared to lay for a game at that level and the minute someone tries to back substantially the information is, effectively, given up.

Some bookies are far more pro active at changing prices than others but volume does dictate. Us signing a couple of players and having a few back from injury will have far less affect on the market than, say, a Liverpool announcing that Mane will miss their game against City. The market will then anticipate a flood of money for City and the prices will be adjusted accordingly.

bobmunro said:

ValleyGary said:

RaplhMilne said:

ValleyGary said:

shine166 said:

That's where the bets have gone, so they are the odds. 

Very rare that football match odds change from when the book is opened. The market isn’t as volatile as say next manager odds, where inside info can come from and so any bet changes the odds.

Would disagree with this comment, very few punters are on this early for football games outside Premier league. Prices are up for all Saturdays championship fixtures. These can and will change following the virtual complete midweek fixture list. 

As Charlton 7/4 with William Hill.  I can guarantee you they are completely oblivious to our injury situation, and have no idea that we have potentially 3/4 of our best players being available, and the promise of incoming players. That price is based on one win in 17 games, and a handful of draws.  So in reality it’s a good price and could be value. Because even though the information is public domain, they are only looking at our past. Not our future.  However, am wary that Bowyer now has a reputation of not putting players back into the side. We could see a super strong bench, all coming on after Barnsley have gone in front. 

Perhaps @bobmunro can advise how his mob work, but id be very surprised if a billion pound betting firm didn't have researchers advising the traders of clubs squads at championship level.

Prices may change slightly, but the booked is opened with form etc in mind, not on 'where the bets have gone'.

Based on current squad and form the game is pretty much a pick'em, so the odds are not a million miles out. Odds will not vary greatly across betting firms either. And yes, the odds compilers are very well informed so they are aware of players coming back from injury. Championship games are pretty strong markets so weight of money isn't going to shift the odds a great deal

If we sign Messi, Ronaldo and Mbappe on Thursday then the odds might change!

What about the deadline for printing the slips you get in the shops? Or is that such a small part of the business it doesn't really matter any more?