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Championship XG
Comments
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This fella predicts we will finish 7th based on our current position vs strength of opposition played equating to 72 points and a 32% chance of making the playoffs (as well as 1% chance of top two). The team he predicted for 6th are Bristol City with 73 points and a 34% chance of top six.2
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That's not too shabby!0
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Don't have much on at work today so thanks for this. Gonna dig into his methodology and see how robust!Callumcafc said:This fella predicts we will finish 7th based on our current position vs strength of opposition played equating to 72 points and a 32% chance of making the playoffs (as well as 1% chance of top two). The team he predicted for 6th are Bristol City with 73 points and a 34% chance of top six.
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I predict that we will be in & around 10th -12th. Wont be top 6 but wont be bottom 6 either. Dont need fancy graphs to work it out either.1
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What's the verdict? ;-)cantersaddick said:
Don't have much on at work today so thanks for this. Gonna dig into his methodology and see how robust!Callumcafc said:This fella predicts we will finish 7th based on our current position vs strength of opposition played equating to 72 points and a 32% chance of making the playoffs (as well as 1% chance of top two). The team he predicted for 6th are Bristol City with 73 points and a 34% chance of top six.
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golfaddick said:I predict that we will be in & around 10th -12th. Wont be top 6 but wont be bottom 6 either. Dont need fancy graphs to work it out either.Is that the basis on which you give financial advice?6
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That defensive chart makes for very good reading for Dillon Phillips... 2nd best for “big chances” converted to goals, 1st for shots on target converted to goals.0
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Does this suggest that perhaps we dont have the stamina to last at this level. Or perhaps the squad depth to bring players on who can keep us going at the same level.Callumcafc said:0 - Sponsored links:
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I still don't really understand XG. Strikes me as a stat that only has any meaning after the event1
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XG is basically adjusting total shots for quality. You can measure it over a number of games to give an idea for the quality of a teams attack/defence and try to understand how much "luck" they have been getting. Liverpool for example have been winning a lot of close games and XG indicates that this may not last.Its not perfect of course and some teams may outperform their expected goals if they have extremely talented strikers, an incredible goalkeeper or if they have a tactical system that XG isn't clever enough to account for, but generally most teams will end up close to their expected level over a long enough period.0
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Top of the table ... yehhhCallumcafc said:1 -
Unfortunately, "% on target" isn't the only important measure though. One shot on target from one shot in total in a game isn't going to win you too many. That said, we are 12th in terms of goals scored so quite a way above our League position in that respect.2
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Not specifically xG but we don’t really have a thread for stat geeks and graphs.1
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stackitsteve said:Not specifically xG but we don’t really have a thread for stat geeks and graphs.
I'll start one and title it "77.5"
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FGR down to 10th.Addick Addict said:I can only assume that xG is the reason that Forest Green are still, despite being top of the table, they are still being dismissed by some bookies to win League 2.
Forest Green finished 5th last season and scored 68 goals in 46 games - above average for the League - but this season they have netted just 14 times in their 12 matches. Where the improvement has come is with their defence as they have conceded just 6 times this season (just once in their last 6) and have 8 clean sheets to their name.
The logic, presumably based on the information utilised, is that they will, by virtue of suspensions, injuries, loss of form etc etc start to leak goals but won't improve on their ability to score.
At 14/1 (and each way 1/4 1st 3) I'm happy to take a chance that the likes of Bet365 and xG will be proven wrong.0 -
Yep in freefall. The bookies and xG got that one right and I didn't admittedly.Covered End said:
FGR down to 10th.Addick Addict said:I can only assume that xG is the reason that Forest Green are still, despite being top of the table, they are still being dismissed by some bookies to win League 2.
Forest Green finished 5th last season and scored 68 goals in 46 games - above average for the League - but this season they have netted just 14 times in their 12 matches. Where the improvement has come is with their defence as they have conceded just 6 times this season (just once in their last 6) and have 8 clean sheets to their name.
The logic, presumably based on the information utilised, is that they will, by virtue of suspensions, injuries, loss of form etc etc start to leak goals but won't improve on their ability to score.
At 14/1 (and each way 1/4 1st 3) I'm happy to take a chance that the likes of Bet365 and xG will be proven wrong.
Equally, however, Leeds, the bookies' favourite, have gone the other way too. For the 10 games prior to tonight, they were in the bottom two for virtually every stat going and have blown a 15 point lead in the process. They might come good again but they are very much looking like a side that has tried to run a marathon at 1500m pace at the moment.
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They "out statted" Brentford tonight.Addick Addict said:
Yep in freefall. The bookies and xG got that one right and I didn't admittedly.Covered End said:
FGR down to 10th.Addick Addict said:I can only assume that xG is the reason that Forest Green are still, despite being top of the table, they are still being dismissed by some bookies to win League 2.
Forest Green finished 5th last season and scored 68 goals in 46 games - above average for the League - but this season they have netted just 14 times in their 12 matches. Where the improvement has come is with their defence as they have conceded just 6 times this season (just once in their last 6) and have 8 clean sheets to their name.
The logic, presumably based on the information utilised, is that they will, by virtue of suspensions, injuries, loss of form etc etc start to leak goals but won't improve on their ability to score.
At 14/1 (and each way 1/4 1st 3) I'm happy to take a chance that the likes of Bet365 and xG will be proven wrong.
Equally, however, Leeds, the bookies' favourite, have gone the other way too. For the 10 games prior to tonight, they were in the bottom two for virtually every stat going and have blown a 15 point lead in the process. They might come good again but they are very much looking like a side that has tried to run a marathon at 1500m pace at the moment.0 -
They did but still only produce one goal which has been their undoing given that they had failed to score in 5 of their previous 6 games, They haven't kept a clean sheet since 12th December so are, effectively, failing at both ends of the pitch and is why they have only picked up 10 points from their last 11 League games. That is the form of relegation candidates not champions.Covered End said:
They "out statted" Brentford tonight.Addick Addict said:
Yep in freefall. The bookies and xG got that one right and I didn't admittedly.Covered End said:
FGR down to 10th.Addick Addict said:I can only assume that xG is the reason that Forest Green are still, despite being top of the table, they are still being dismissed by some bookies to win League 2.
Forest Green finished 5th last season and scored 68 goals in 46 games - above average for the League - but this season they have netted just 14 times in their 12 matches. Where the improvement has come is with their defence as they have conceded just 6 times this season (just once in their last 6) and have 8 clean sheets to their name.
The logic, presumably based on the information utilised, is that they will, by virtue of suspensions, injuries, loss of form etc etc start to leak goals but won't improve on their ability to score.
At 14/1 (and each way 1/4 1st 3) I'm happy to take a chance that the likes of Bet365 and xG will be proven wrong.
Equally, however, Leeds, the bookies' favourite, have gone the other way too. For the 10 games prior to tonight, they were in the bottom two for virtually every stat going and have blown a 15 point lead in the process. They might come good again but they are very much looking like a side that has tried to run a marathon at 1500m pace at the moment.2 -
xG saw us correctly. All xG is, essentially, is "reversion to the mean." People mis-understand it. It simply strips out luck and shows results once the wheel turns, which it eventually does. The only stat I've found better is wage bill, which also is very predictive of table finish. And of course, both stats need a LOT of games to pan-out. Honestly, studies show it pans out best over multiple seasons, more than any one season. And for individual matches, it's useless.
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Just saw this. We got whopped by one of the best Championship clubs in form, not a bottom-dweller. Wish we could play Leeds NOW, especially after today.
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As I explained to you in detail further up this thread and multiple times on other threads you are taking the stats out of context. Any analyst worth their salt with tell you it's the story the stats tell that is important not the stat itself.NapaAddick said:xG saw us correctly. All xG is, essentially, is "reversion to the mean." People mis-understand it. It simply strips out luck and shows results once the wheel turns, which it eventually does. The only stat I've found better is wage bill, which also is very predictive of table finish. And of course, both stats need a LOT of games to pan-out. Honestly, studies show it pans out best over multiple seasons, more than any one season. And for individual matches, it's useless.
Yes we were always going to revert to the mean at some point in the season after our early season form and XG backed that up. But to take that out of the context of the injuries we have had once again completely misses the point.
Our early season form (and the XG) was based on one set of players. What you call "reversion to the mean" is based on a bunch of kids filling their shoes an entirely different side. Wht you are saying is that XG could foresee our injury crisis - which of course is complete bollocks as it is independent of anything like squad depth etc.
I'm a fan of XG and of the analysis used in football. But you consistently misinterpret or read too much into it.
Data means nothing if you dont know how to use it.
Not digging you out mate but your comments on this and other stats debates on CL genuinely come across like you read moneyball and have become a bit obsessed without really understanding it.6 -
Sigh. Whatever. Enjoy.
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I appreciate the posting of data and any interpretation of such data as well as the ensuing disagreements over what it all means. Love it.3
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Well debated response there. Thanks.NapaAddick said:Sigh. Whatever. Enjoy.1
