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Grand National 2019

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Comments

  • PaddyP17
    PaddyP17 Posts: 13,035
    PolzeathNick said:
    They are paying first 6 places, so worth checking with their support (have fun with that!). 

    There are no regulations on place terms.  The standard would be 1/4 first 4, but with competition they are all trying to outdo each other.  Should be 1/5 first 6 with that lot.
    Cheers. Bloody confusing. 

    My mate is not a very regular punter so I'm confused as to why he's got 1/5 1-4, but 22s instead of 16s. Weird.
  • bobmunro
    bobmunro Posts: 20,842
    PaddyP17 said:
    Peanuts, @bobmunro @Addick Addict  @PolzeathNick

    And anyone else - my mate's just bet on the Grand National, and has got terrible terms of 1/5 odds for FOUR places!

    Am I right in thinking this goes against regulations? Or downright isn't allowed?



    Tattersall's Rule 3 states 1/4 first 4 for Handicaps of 16 or more - but prefaces that with 'unless clearly displayed otherwise'. So Betfair can offer those fractions - but it is shocking!
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,758
    edited April 2019
    PaddyP17 said:
    Hang on. He's got RTK at 22/1 according to the potential returns. What's gone on here?
    He’s used the “each way edge” feature where you can add or remove places to increase or decrease the odds, hence less places but higher odds.

    That’s what the little lightning bolt symbol indicates.
  • PaddyP17
    PaddyP17 Posts: 13,035
    Callumcafc said:
    PaddyP17 said:
    Hang on. He's got RTK at 22/1 according to the potential returns. What's gone on here?
    He’s used the “each way edge” feature where you can add or remove places to increase or decrease the odds, hence less places but higher odds.

    That’s what the little lightning bolt symbol indicates.
    Cheers. So to confirm, he's an unaware muppet. Cool.
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,758
    On Esprit Du Large win and Three Musketeers e/w in the first.
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,758
    edited April 2019
    PaddyP17 said:
    Callumcafc said:
    PaddyP17 said:
    Hang on. He's got RTK at 22/1 according to the potential returns. What's gone on here?
    He’s used the “each way edge” feature where you can add or remove places to increase or decrease the odds, hence less places but higher odds.

    That’s what the little lightning bolt symbol indicates.
    Cheers. So to confirm, he's an unaware muppet. Cool.
    Haha well, it’s a weird system.

    There was an amazing loophole on it a year or two back when it was first launched. You could cut 4 places, 1/4 odds down to 2 places, 1/4 and it would boost the odds to point where you could lay off the entire stake on the exchange win market and give yourself a risk free go at a jackpot if the horse finished in the places (ie 2nd).

    No wonder they only let me have bets on the exchange nowadays...
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,758
    Callumcafc said:
    On Esprit Du Large win and Three Musketeers e/w in the first.
    Lovely! I am loving Aintree this year.
  • Lincsaddick
    Lincsaddick Posts: 32,345
    Let's not forget 'LiveLoveLaugh' in the GN .. a mere 66/1 ((:>)
  • palarsehater
    palarsehater Posts: 12,296
    ladies day got to be the most untrue named racedays in horse racing
  • Lincsaddick
    Lincsaddick Posts: 32,345
    palarsehater said:
    ladies day got to be the most untrue named racedays in horse racing
    LIverBirds Day it is from now on
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  • palarsehater
    palarsehater Posts: 12,296
    also another niggle with itv is why they insist on talking to ruby walsh before every race he features in, would be nice to hear from other jockeys 
  • ValleyGary
    ValleyGary Posts: 37,973
    What a shit race
  • PaddyP17
    PaddyP17 Posts: 13,035
    Defi Du Seuil the best novice chaser by a mile.
  • palarsehater
    palarsehater Posts: 12,296
    2 wins and a place so far 
  • palarsehater
    palarsehater Posts: 12,296
    gordan elliot to train the winner of the gn 2/1 not a bad bet that i don't think a 1 in 4 chance as he still has 11 of the 40 runners
  • bobmunro
    bobmunro Posts: 20,842
    edited April 2019
    palarsehater said:
    gordan elliot to train the winner of the gn 2/1 not a bad bet that i don't think a 1 in 4 chance as he still has 11 of the 40 runners


    It's about right, slightly generous.

    Best price book percentage is around 124% - Elliot's 11 runners account for 37.6% of that book - so about 7/4 combined price. But if you take 37.6% as a percentage of 124% it equates to 30% or 9/4 'true' chance.

  • palarsehater
    palarsehater Posts: 12,296
    Aintree - the only place where the punters are on more ketamine than the horses
  • cs1986
    cs1986 Posts: 1,529
    palarsehater said:
    Aintree - the only place where the punters are on more ketamine than the horses
    Scousers mate Scousers. 
  • ValleyGary
    ValleyGary Posts: 37,973
    palarsehater said:
    Aintree - the only place where the punters are on more ketamine than the horses
    The papers take the piss out of the women there but the blokes are an absolute state
  • palarsehater
    palarsehater Posts: 12,296
    ValleyGary said:
    palarsehater said:
    Aintree - the only place where the punters are on more ketamine than the horses
    The papers take the piss out of the women there but the blokes are an absolute state
    been twice once with just me and mrs and we had general admission -  state of people, saw fights a fella that had been bottled ( before the 1st race ) that added to my general dislike of mickeys was a awful day. 
    2nd time was with mrs and her family we paid to have seats for the day if we wanted them, our own bar - so no q etc. 
    was funny majority of the people in the stand were irish or from down south and no hassle a decent array of people.  
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  • PaddyP17
    PaddyP17 Posts: 13,035
    GET IN THERE! Cadmium absolutely romps home!!!!!!! 20/1, SP 10/1, happy days!
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,704
    edited April 2019
    I make time of Topham 5m 33s (12 secs slow of standard)
    Not much Soft in that ground I reckon. Riding predominantly GS.
  • Exiled_Addick
    Exiled_Addick Posts: 17,168
    Had a busy couple of weeks so not been on Charlton Life that much and have lost track of this thread - has @PeanutsMolloy made his final selection for the GN yet?
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,704
    Exiled_Addick said:
    Had a busy couple of weeks so not been on Charlton Life that much and have lost track of this thread - has @PeanutsMolloy made his final selection for the GN yet?
    Yes, thank you    :)
  • palarsehater
    palarsehater Posts: 12,296
    3 winners and a place typical the day i went for tiny stakes :smile:
  • PaddyP17
    PaddyP17 Posts: 13,035
    palarsehater said:
    3 winners and a place typical the day i went for tiny stakes :smile:
    Money's money!
  • PeanutsMolloy
    PeanutsMolloy Posts: 6,704
    edited April 2019
    PeanutsMolloy said:
    Exiled_Addick said:
    Had a busy couple of weeks so not been on Charlton Life that much and have lost track of this thread - has @PeanutsMolloy made his final selection for the GN yet?
    Yes, thank you    :)
    No worries @Exiled_Addick  - copy and paste from yesterday:

    If the weather forecast is right, I think we are looking at Good to Soft (possibly Good places) – decent enough for those that want a sound surface but enough cut for those not wanting it quick.

    If that’s so, my model rates 5 with Winning Profiles:

    [those in bold are on my betting slip e/w, 6 places 1/5]

    ·         Tiger Roll (couldn't back him at the price, preferred to add 3 with place potential at 50+)

    ·         Ramses De Teillee (33/1)

    ·         General Principle (33/1)

    ·         Vintage Clouds (14/1) (the better the ground, the better his chance - if forecast is wrong and it's softer than GS, he'd drop to Strong Place Potential)

    ·         Anibale Fly (10/1 [5 places 1/4], half stake refunded - Cheers Bob)

    Strong Place Potential on GS or better (could nick it with some luck) (rated even but in order that my nose fancies them):

    ·         Joe Farrell (50/1)

    ·         Rathvinden (if forecast is wrong and it's softer than GS, he'd have a winning chance)

    ·         Ballyoptic

    ·         Walk In The Mill

    ·         (if softer than GS) Pleasant Company 

    A number of runners have profiles which are consistent on GS or better with filling a Minor Place. Some are market fancies (e.g. Lake View Lad, Jury Duty and Rock The Kasbah) but those that are offered at 66/1 or longer for 6 places:

    ·         Singlefarmpayment (66/1) (the better the ground the better his chance of placing)

    ·         Regal Encore (66/1)

    ·         Ultragold (66/1)

    ·         Folsom Blue (66/1) (if softer than GS, he'd have a winning chance)

    ·         Warriors Tale (66/1)

    ·         A Toi Phil (80/1)


    Also had a nibble for old times sake of Bless The Wings at a boosted 117/1 for 6 places

  • palarsehater
    palarsehater Posts: 12,296
    PaddyP17 said:
    palarsehater said:
    3 winners and a place typical the day i went for tiny stakes :smile:
    Money's money!
    true that after aintree will leave a small bit in account of any interests at punchestown although that really is a hard festival to come out up!. 
  • ValleyGary
    ValleyGary Posts: 37,973
    Adrien Du Point hampered twice by falling horses in that, poxy jumps.
  • Exiled_Addick
    Exiled_Addick Posts: 17,168
    PeanutsMolloy said:
    PeanutsMolloy said:
    Exiled_Addick said:
    Had a busy couple of weeks so not been on Charlton Life that much and have lost track of this thread - has @PeanutsMolloy made his final selection for the GN yet?
    Yes, thank you    :)
    No worries @Exiled_Addick  - copy and paste from yesterday:

    If the weather forecast is right, I think we are looking at Good to Soft (possibly Good places) – decent enough for those that want a sound surface but enough cut for those not wanting it quick.

    If that’s so, my model rates 5 with Winning Profiles:

    [those in bold are on my betting slip e/w]

    ·         Tiger Roll (can't back him at the price)

    ·         Ramses De Teillee

    ·         General Principle

    ·         Vintage Clouds (the better the ground, the better his chance - if forecast is wrong and it's softer than GS, he'd drop to Strong Place Potential)

    ·         Anibale Fly 

    Strong Place Potential on GS or better (could nick it with some luck) (rated even but in order that my nose fancies them):

    ·         Joe Farrell

    ·         Rathvinden (if forecast is wrong and it's softer than GS, he'd have a winning chance)

    ·         Ballyoptic

    ·         Walk In The Mill

    ·         Pleasant Company (if forecast is wrong and it's softer than GS)

    A number of runners have profiles which are consistent on GS or better with filling a Minor Place. Some are market fancies (e.g. Lake View Lad, Jury Duty and Rock The Kasbah) but those that are offered at 66/1 or longer for 6 places:

    ·         Singlefarmpayment (66/1) (the better the ground the better his chance of placing)

    ·         Regal Encore (66/1)

    ·         Ultragold (66/1)

    ·         Folsom Blue (66/1) (if forecast is wrong and it's softer than GS, he'd have a winning chance)

    ·         Warriors Tale (66/1)

    ·         A Toi Phil (80/1)


    Also had a nibble for old times sake of Bless The Wings at a boosted 117/1 for 6 places

    Cheers Peanuts - I'm counting on you as usual!

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