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Cheltenham Festival 2019

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  • Riviera
    Riviera Posts: 8,167
    Imagine we have weather like today's? I've certainly experienced 20c down there but also -2c, snow, hail and gales! 
    9 of us going on Tuesday and very excited. 
  • palarsehater
    palarsehater Posts: 12,296
    edited February 2019
    purchased the racing post cheltenham guide in a bundle for £14.99 delivered, actually pretty good not crammed full of adverts and really good insights in detail to each race. 

    going betfair preview next weds will write the notes up on here the day after. 

    supreme i am on fakir doudaries

    one i am hearing a lot of ew calls for is itchy feet, one of of which is from a pal who succesfully tipped labaik 2 years ago of course no one listened. 
  • killer kish
    killer kish Posts: 2,019
    I’ve got a horse with Olly Murphy and at the beginning of the season he said his two best horses were Itchy Feet and Brewinupastorm and he expected both to go the Festival with live chances
  • SWEnglandAddick
    SWEnglandAddick Posts: 877
    Hoping to have a free ticket on the Wednesday, otherwise I’ll be watching from work/home/pub this year.
  • palarsehater
    palarsehater Posts: 12,296
    did anyone wish to attend the betfair preview night next week weds night being held at the emirates, i will have 3-4 spares will just need to email them over to someone. 
  • No.1 in South London
    No.1 in South London Posts: 3,960
    Penhill will not be a runner at Cheltenham this year.
  • palarsehater
    palarsehater Posts: 12,296
    edited February 2019
    looks a very weak race the front 5 in the market 

    paisley park - cheltenham form but v skinny at 13/8
    presenting percy - likely to go gold cup
    apples jade - likely going champion 
    samcro - who knows what horse turns up
    faugheen - as above

    im on supasundae atm its 8/1 
  • palarsehater
    palarsehater Posts: 12,296
    although rain predicted next week can see a lot of non runners due to ground, as the watered ground will not be enough, cheltenham is always a graveyard for faves but think this year is going to be hard work to end the week in profit. 

    if conditions were like this might bite must be amazing value at 16/1 for the gold cup!!!!
  • johnnybev1987
    johnnybev1987 Posts: 11,410
    palarsehater said:
    looks a very weak race the front 5 in the market 

    paisley park - cheltenham form but v skinny at 13/8
    presenting percy - likely to go gold cup
    apples jade - likely going champion 
    samcro - who knows what horse turns up
    faugheen - as above

    im on supasundae atm its 8/1 
    I am on Samcro EW , not really sure on form but just going with it sometimes best when i bet on horses :) 
  • palarsehater
    palarsehater Posts: 12,296
    johnnybev1987 said:
    palarsehater said:
    looks a very weak race the front 5 in the market 

    paisley park - cheltenham form but v skinny at 13/8
    presenting percy - likely to go gold cup
    apples jade - likely going champion 
    samcro - who knows what horse turns up
    faugheen - as above

    im on supasundae atm its 8/1 
    I am on Samcro EW , not really sure on form but just going with it sometimes best when i bet on horses :) 
    if the real deal turns up then a great price, but i still think it may not run, elliot has been a bit sheepish when asked about it
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  • No.1 in South London
    No.1 in South London Posts: 3,960
    Supersundae may be taking a shot at the champion
  • PaddyP17
    PaddyP17 Posts: 13,035
    I'm very happy with Paisley Park at 12s. Won't be taking another interest until raceday given the messiness of the market.

    Also a mess are the JLT and Arkle markets. Apparently Defi Du Seuil will be rerouted to the Arkle - though I'm praying not, as he'd win the JLT as it stands IMO.
  • PaddyP17
    PaddyP17 Posts: 13,035
    Defi goes JLT according to the exchanges!!! Happy days.
  • PaddyP17
    PaddyP17 Posts: 13,035
    Albert Bartlett - Allaho @ 14s has a big shout, according to Ruby, who will be on board.
  • palarsehater
    palarsehater Posts: 12,296
    less than a week to go and current weather forecast seem that it could be a mudlarks festival. 
  • Riviera
    Riviera Posts: 8,167
    palarsehater said:
    less than a week to go and current weather forecast seem that it could be a mudlarks festival. 
    Not according to the BBC. Nothing but a few light showers forecast. 
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/gl50
  • SWEnglandAddick
    SWEnglandAddick Posts: 877
    Rumours of snow up here on the Wednesday and Thursday, needless to say all the women in my office are panicking about what to wear :lol:
  • Riviera
    Riviera Posts: 8,167
    SWEnglandAddick said:
    Rumours of snow up here on the Wednesday and Thursday, needless to say all the women in my office are panicking about what to wear :lol:
    Daily Express sell a lot of copies down there then?
  • SWEnglandAddick
    SWEnglandAddick Posts: 877
    Riviera said:
    SWEnglandAddick said:
    Rumours of snow up here on the Wednesday and Thursday, needless to say all the women in my office are panicking about what to wear :lol:
    Daily Express sell a lot of copies down there then?
    Seems so :lol:

    Does look like it will be cold though so wrap up folks.
  • palarsehater
    palarsehater Posts: 12,296
    samcro will head for punchestown and aintree and miss the festival
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  • johnnybev1987
    johnnybev1987 Posts: 11,410
    palarsehater said:
    samcro will head for punchestown and aintree and miss the festival
    Does that mean Apples Jade is more of a banker now and will come in (currently 2/1) 
  • palarsehater
    palarsehater Posts: 12,296
    actually looking at the stayers it really looks like paisley parks to lose. 
  • palarsehater
    palarsehater Posts: 12,296
    johnnybev1987 said:
    palarsehater said:
    samcro will head for punchestown and aintree and miss the festival
    Does that mean Apples Jade is more of a banker now and will come in (currently 2/1) 
    apples jade is going for champion hurdle - well supposedly is. 
    although its entered in stayers has v little chance of going there
  • PaddyP17
    PaddyP17 Posts: 13,035
    Apples Jade is in absolutely zero ways a banker for any race. Her runs at Cheltenham account for among the worst RPRs and ORs of any of her races. 

    That said, she's looked immense this year, and I'm excited for the CH (where she probably goes).
  • palarsehater
    palarsehater Posts: 12,296
    Apples jade doesn’t win the ch in fact I dont even fancy it to place, am at 2 preview nights this week Betfairs tomorrow night at Emirates and ganleys in mordens on Thursday night, will stick up what’s said on here 
  • palarsehater
    palarsehater Posts: 12,296
    The skybet going market on day 1 is a good pointer as bookies obvs check weather a bit more meticulously than I, good/soft is currently 1/3, soft 5/2, good 9/1, heavy 25/1
  • PaddyP17
    PaddyP17 Posts: 13,035
    palarsehater said:
    The skybet going market on day 1 is a good pointer as bookies obvs check weather a bit more meticulously than I, good/soft is currently 1/3, soft 5/2, good 9/1, heavy 25/1
    Simon Claisse will water it, so it's on the softer side of good at the very least. GtS is pretty standard for the Supreme.
  • The Red Robin
    The Red Robin Posts: 26,126
    £20 refund on SkyBet for the 1.30 on Tuesday, Supreme Novices Hurdle if you don't win. So £20 refund for a winner, £10 refund if you go E/W at it loses. 
  • PaddyP17
    PaddyP17 Posts: 13,035
    The Red Robin said:
    £20 refund on SkyBet for the 1.30 on Tuesday, Supreme Novices Hurdle if you don't win. So £20 refund for a winner, £10 refund if you go E/W at it loses. 
    Same for the first race of every day. And it's in literal cash, not a refund as a free bet.

    My choices for the 1.30 races are:

    Supreme Novices' Hurdle: Elixir de Nutz @ 8/1. (I also don't mind Mister Fisher, and if you're going each way anyway, then go with Itchy Feet)

    Ballymore: City Island @ 9/1. Gone a bit under the radar. Owned by the race sponsors and has been trained with this race in mind.

    JLT: lol who knows, gonna do that on the day. I'm nursing antepost 20s about Defi Du Seuil like a worried mother hen, so I may hedge with Lostintranslation (3/1), or if I'm feeling bold, go with Kildisart @ 9/1.

    Triumph: Pic d'Orhy is really really interesting if he runs @ 9/1. Sir Erec isn't value enough and I fancy him to get turned over.
  • palarsehater
    palarsehater Posts: 12,296
    fox norton out. 

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