cheltenham festival 2016 thread
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sods law aswell @smiffyboy the others will all win and that horse alone will have let me down for well over a k, as cant see anything else beating it, least i dont have to worry about ruby taking a tumble @ValleyGary ha1
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Annie Power now favourite for the Champion hurdle.
Anyone still think that Mullins having all the best horses is good for racing? No one bar the stable knows what the plans of the horses are and if one gets just the slightest niggle they have another three or four in reserve.1 -
To quote a hackneyed old racing cliche 'They don't run 'em for us', and never was it more true than with the Mullins stable.Addick Addict said:Annie Power now favourite for the Champion hurdle.
Anyone still think that Mullins having all the best horses is good for racing? No one bar the stable knows what the plans of the horses are and if one gets just the slightest niggle they have another three or four in reserve.
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Betfair have now voided bets placed after 1st Jan so any multiples will still be valid just with faugheen removed0
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At Wincanton a few weeks back i was talking to an RUK presenter who said Thistlecrack is the shorty he is looking to get beat at the festival because his form isnt as good as people make it sound and he also added Annie Power would be going for the World Hurdle.Guess that one may change now after todays news?0
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Cole Harden on better ground, is a different proposition to the Cole Harden Thistlecrack beat at Newbury.1
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Some Festival stats/trends to bore or interest you?
No horse has won any festival race with an official rating of less than 113.
13 of the 27 winners from last years festival had run at the previous years festival.
All 14 Grade 1 winners last year had at least 31 days rest before the festival.
No horse has won at the festival since 2005 who has fallen in his last race.
BUMPER the last 11 winners have all won there last race by a length or more at 6/1 or less.
QUEEN MOTHER the previous years Arkle winner has finished first or second in the last 7 years in this race.
GOLD CUP the previous 15 winners have all had there last race at only these four courses Cheltenham,Kempton,Newbury and Leopardstown plus an official rating of 152+
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@killer kish thanks for this. I'm exposing how green I am here but I really enjoyed putting a few bets on last year, is there anywhere I can go to understand what most of the above means.killer kish said:Some Festival stats/trends to bore or interest you?
No horse has won any festival race with an official rating of less than 113.
13 of the 27 winners from last years festival had run at the previous years festival.
All 14 Grade 1 winners last year had at least 31 days rest before the festival.
No horse has won at the festival since 2005 who has fallen in his last race.
BUMPER the last 11 winners have all won there last race by a length or more at 6/1 or less.
QUEEN MOTHER the previous years Arkle winner has finished first or second in the last 7 years in this race.
GOLD CUP the previous 15 winners have all had there last race at only these four courses Cheltenham,Kempton,Newbury and Leopardstown plus an official rating of 152+
For example, you mention rating of 152+. It means nothing to me. I'd quite like to get my head around the terminology so if I hear/read about stuff, I have an idea of what is going on. Any directions toward an idiot's guide to horse racing would be gratefully received
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Cabbles you can find all the the information in the Racing Post or Racing Post website.The number 152 is the official rating which is found by the horses name in the form guide it will OR then the number for example Red Rum OR 1731
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MIN drifting like a barge.. surely not another?!0
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Cabbles, I don't know if you're just slightly green or very green but, if the latter, every racehorse with a modicum of experience is given an Official Rating by the handicapper. The ratings scales are different for Flat and for Jumps racing and there are separate hurdles and chase ratings for jumps horses.
The ratings are reviewed and published once a week by the handicapper based on his assessment of the prior week's results and form.
In a handicap, the runner with the highest OR will be allotted the top weight stipulated for that race (often 11.10 or 11.12 for chases). Then the other runners will be allotted a weight set by reference to their ORs compared to the topweight's OR (1 OR point = 1lb of weight). So, if the topweight had an OR of 150 and was set to carry 11.12, a runner with an OR of 140 in the same handicap race would carry 11.02 and one with an OR of 130 would carry 10.06. The minimum weight that can be allotted is 10.00, so even if a runner in that race had an OR of 110, he would still be allotted 10.00. That runner would be said to be running "out of the handicap" because 10.00 would represent more weight than their OR implied (in this case, 14lbs more than the 9.00 implied by the OR differential with the topweighted runner).
To complicate things, the actual weights to be carried might be further adjusted, for example, if the horse had a "claiming" jockey (i.e. a relatively inexperienced jockey), which trainers might choose to use to take some weight off a horse's back.
Obviously the idea of a handicap is that every runner in a race should have (on paper) an equal chance of winning and that's why, especially those handicaps with largish fields, including the great staying handicap chases, make for some of the most interesting races to dabble in as a punter. A small footnote, the Grand National is a unique handicap in that, because of the special characteristics of the race, since 2001 the handicapper has been permitted to adjust the prevailing OR's up or down at the time when he frames the weights (as he has just done for this year's race), but that's another story.
Of course, not all races are handicaps and for these (particularly those for novices just starting out or for the highest quality horses [e.g. Grade 1 races such as the Gold Cup]), the idea being that the best horse should win - it doesn't always work out like that of course. So, in these races, all runners compete more or less with identical weights (though there are some "allowances" depending on the race, for example for youth or for mares).
So, in the Gold Cup that Killer was referring to, it's not a surprise that all last 15 winners have been rated OR152 or higher because, theoretically, it should be very difficult for a lowly-rated horse to beat the best at level weights.
Hope this helps but apologies if you already knew some or all of this.11 -
Very well explained peanuts1
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I knew absolutely none of it - cheers mate very insightful and well explainedPeanutsMolloy said:Cabbles, I don't know if you're just slightly green or very green but, if the latter, every racehorse with a modicum of experience is given an Official Rating by the handicapper. The ratings scales are different for Flat and for Jumps racing and there are separate hurdles and chase ratings for jumps horses.
The ratings are reviewed and published once a week by the handicapper based on his assessment of the prior week's results and form.
In a handicap, the runner with the highest OR will be allotted the top weight stipulated for that race (often 11.10 or 11.12 for chases). Then the other runners will be allotted a weight set by reference to their ORs compared to the topweight's OR (1 OR point = 1lb of weight). So, if the topweight had an OR of 150 and was set to carry 11.12, a runner with an OR of 140 in the same handicap race would carry 11.02 and one with an OR of 130 would carry 10.06. The minimum weight that can be allotted is 10.00, so even if a runner in that race had an OR of 110, he would still be allotted 10.00. That runner would be said to be running "out of the handicap" because 10.00 would represent more weight than their OR implied (in this case, 14lbs more than the 9.00 implied by the OR differential with the topweighted runner).
To complicate things, the actual weights to be carried might be further adjusted, for example, if the horse had a "claiming" jockey (i.e. a relatively inexperienced jockey), which trainers might choose to use to take some weight off a horse's back.
Obviously the idea of a handicap is that every runner in a race should have (on paper) an equal chance of winning and that's why, especially those handicaps with largish fields, including the great staying handicap chases, make for some of the most interesting races to dabble in as a punter. A small footnote, the Grand National is a unique handicap in that, because of the special characteristics of the race, since 2001 the handicapper has been permitted to adjust the prevailing OR's up or down at the time when he frames the weights (as he has just done for this year's race), but that's another story.
Of course, not all races are handicaps and for these (particularly those for novices just starting out or for the highest quality horses [e.g. Grade 1 races such as the Gold Cup]), the idea being that the best horse should win - it doesn't always work out like that of course. So, in these races, all runners compete more or less with identical weights (though there are some "allowances" depending on the race, for example for youth or for mares).
So, in the Gold Cup that Killer was referring to, it's not a surprise that all last 15 winners have been rated OR152 or higher because, theoretically, it should be very difficult for a lowly-rated horse to beat the best at level weights.
Hope this helps but apologies if you already knew some or all of this.2 -
JLT NOVICE CHASE (THURSDAY)
All 5 winners aged 6 or 7
All 5 winners 146+ rated
All 5 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
All 5 winners last race was Grade 1 or 2
All 5 winners last race was 46-54 days ago
I know this is a short pattern only 5 years but of the 64 horses entered for this race only 3 horses complete all the above trends/stats
Douvan (im sure will not run in this)
Arzal 40/1
Vaniteux 16/16 -
Thanks gents - basically I enjoyed it all last year and was quite lucky with 2 wins on I think 'super heinz' so wanted to give it a little punt again this year. Basically I've just started reading the news on the racing post and hope stuff starts to sink in re: language & terminology. I see it as a bit like learning a subject at school, you've just got to stick at it to understand it.
Let's see come a month from now. Prob gonna take a lot of my tips from here but I do find it fascinating people's slight variations on here. I remember it from last year
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Not sure how much truth there is, but the reason for the drift on MIN out to as big as 7/1 on the exchanges, was because of the spurs footballer, Son Heung Min got ruled out for a few weeks yesterday with a foot injury!!smiffyboy said:
Mullins has come out and said there is nothing wrong with MinBig_Bob said:MIN drifting like a barge.. surely not another?!
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Good to hear you are enjoying it cabbles and nothing beats Cheltenham Festival week3
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??killer kish said:.......nothing beats Cheltenham Festival week
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Ha ha - I think we know where your loyalties lie, Peanuts!PeanutsMolloy said:
I'm with KK on this - for me, Cheltenham trumps Aintree.3 - Sponsored links:
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Maybe it should be on the national curriculum, Rob!cabbles said:Thanks gents - basically I enjoyed it all last year and was quite lucky with 2 wins on I think 'super heinz' so wanted to give it a little punt again this year. Basically I've just started reading the news on the racing post and hope stuff starts to sink in re: language & terminology. I see it as a bit like learning a subject at school, you've just got to stick at it to understand it.
Let's see come a month from now. Prob gonna take a lot of my tips from here but I do find it fascinating people's slight variations on here. I remember it from last year
It's a fascinating sport and subject - I've been in the game for 35 years and I'm still learning!1 -
For me Aintree doesn't come close to Cheltenham as its every race at Cheltenham but just the three at Aintree.I only ever go to Aintree on National Day whereas I go to everyday at the festival.But in a twist to the above ramble The Grand National is THE race of the racing calendar for me.1
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That's how I feel, Killer. As a Festival, Cheltenham wins hands down but those 9 minutes on Saturday afternoon in April are something else.killer kish said:For me Aintree doesn't come close to Cheltenham as its every race at Cheltenham but just the three at Aintree.I only ever go to Aintree on National Day whereas I go to everyday at the festival.But in a twist to the above ramble The Grand National is THE race of the racing calendar for me.
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Peanuts I know this question is on the wrong thread,sorry to everyone.But does it annoy you how much the National has now changed and personally I don't think it's for the better1
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fuck off to the other thread ;-)2
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Just seeing all those defintions and terminology was like being plummeted back into secondary school. I think as a novice you can just feel overwhelmed with it all. Peanuts' explanation was helpful.bobmunro said:
Maybe it should be on the national curriculum, Rob!cabbles said:Thanks gents - basically I enjoyed it all last year and was quite lucky with 2 wins on I think 'super heinz' so wanted to give it a little punt again this year. Basically I've just started reading the news on the racing post and hope stuff starts to sink in re: language & terminology. I see it as a bit like learning a subject at school, you've just got to stick at it to understand it.
Let's see come a month from now. Prob gonna take a lot of my tips from here but I do find it fascinating people's slight variations on here. I remember it from last year
It's a fascinating sport and subject - I've been in the game for 35 years and I'm still learning!
I guess it's also about how much time you can dedicate to following the horses/races/jockeys and trainers etc0 -
Apologies northstand but it's bloody hard work pressing a few buttons and changinging threads;-)0
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In a word yes and I agree with you......and not just because it's screwed a damn good model.killer kish said:Peanuts I know this question is on the wrong thread,sorry to everyone.But does it annoy you how much the National has now changed and personally I don't think it's for the better
Will elaborate a bit later, after f%%king off to the other thread
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I wonder after today whether Victoria Pendleton will ride, the pundits on William Hill Radio said she looked like she had butter on her seat.0
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She certainly hasnt looked secure in the saddle even on her flat rides0
