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New Article: TOP 10 AFTER 10 IN THE LAST 10

From fans on the terraces to managers and pundits, those in football often say that ten games into the season is when the league table starts to take shape, how things will look in May and how confident fans can be of their having a good (or bad) season. I decided I should briefly review the top 10 teams after 10 games from the last 10 Championship seasons to see whether it holds and if it does, to what extent? Having copied and pasted the tables below into the thread, I'm openly inviting other boffins to do some analysis themselves and see if they can pick out any trends or quirks I might miss.


2013/14:

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The first thing that strikes is that all three teams who were eventually promoted are 1st, 2nd and 3rd. The majority of other teams held respectable top half finishes aside from Blackpool who slumped to 20th place by the end of the season. Derby sat in a lowly 14th position this time last season to finish 3rd but it wasn't enough to see them take automatics.

2012/13:

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This time the teams who were eventually promoted sit 1st, 4th and 10th. Again, there was one team who slid down the table fast as Wolves somehow managed to slide a whopping 20 places to 23rd at the season's end. Four of the top six managed to stay there until all 46 games were played.

2011/12:

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Both Southampton and West Ham were promoted this season, with Reading rocketing from 15th position to take the title. All six sides finished in the top half but only the two previously mentioned managed to hold their places until the end of the season: Southampton and West Ham. Middlesbrough fell just short in 7th, Hull to 8th, Brighton to 10th and Derby to 12th.

2010/11:

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QPR were top after 10 games and were top after 46 games. The other promoted sides: Norwich and Swansea, were sat in 3rd and 8th respectively. Cardiff clung onto the top six while Watford and Ipswich fell into the bottom half.

2009/10:

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Newcastle & WBA occupied the top two spots after 10 games and did so after 46 too. Third placed Preston dropped to 17th by the end of the season while Blackpool capped off a great season to finish 6th and win the play-off final. Other play-off rivals Cardiff, Leicester and Nottm Forest were in 5th, 8th and 14th respectively.

2008/09:

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Like the season after it, the top two spots were, after 10 games, occupied by the two clubs that would eventually secure automatic promotion with both Wolves and Birmingham managing to sustain their early season form throughout the season. Eventual play-off winners Burnley were in 9th position going into the month of October while the likes of Plymouth and Coventry dorpped off the pace significantly with Plymouth narrowly avoiding relegation.

2007/08:

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This season, the team at top fell to 6th by the end of the season. It was there that Watford lost out to eventual play-off winners Hull City. Three of the top six, including Charlton, fell down the table significantly. Champions West Brom sat just behind the pacemakers in third at this stage seven years ago.

2006/07:

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Champions Sunderland suffered an early season slump but soon turned it around to take the title. Birmingham held firm in second place to join them. Derby County jumped from 10th place to win the play-off final while Crystal Palace went in the other direction, falling to 12th.

2005/06:

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Like 13/14, the top three clubs finished the season promoted. All top 10 clubs stayed inside the top 15 by the end of the season, with the exception of QPR who suffered a 10 point deduction taking them to the brink of relegation.

2004/05:

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Champions Sunderland rose from 5th to claim the title while Reading slipped to 7th and missed out on the play-offs by three points. Runners-up Wigan held their position in 2nd while West Ham were able to win the play-offs after finishing 6th.
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Comments

  • edited October 2014
    So it looks like whoever was top after 10 games gets promoted???

    Thing I noticed the other night about this season, and its backed up here.

    I cant remember a season (in any division) after 10 games were 1 team doesn't average over 2 points per game (Curbs transfer target)

    Which indicates to me this will be an exceptionally tough and close Championship, possibly the toughest ever.

    I maybe wrong obviously.
  • Promoted clubs points total after ten games:

    12 x2
    13 x1
    14 -
    15 x2
    16 x3
    17 x4
    18 x3
    19 x2
    20 x2
    21 -
    22 x3
    23 x6
    24 -
    25 -
    26 x1
    27 x1


    There are two promotion "sweet spots". The first appears between 16 and 18 points with 10 teams over the last 10 years being promoted after achieving this total. The other, which does not apply to this season's table, is between 22 and 23 points with 9 teams over the last 10 achieving promotion.

    The bad news for Norwich, Forest, Watford and Derby is that only 4 teams over the last 10 years have been promoted after achieving 19-20 points from their first ten games.
  • This is the start(!) of some interesting analysis. I think you might have to plot the second ten games and January window comings and goings to establish a pattern...and a minimum target for CAFC.
    Plus of course changes in management!
    What is very clear is that there are only three clubs with parachute payments in the top ten - so seven (?) placed 11-24. They may have bigger budgets but they also have a whole range of highly paid players, some of whom add no value.
    And that's why we will do well to follow the path of Burnley and Derby, and of course CAFC 1994-1998.
  • Our defence is great but attacking wise (currently) we are not close to being one of the best teams in the championship.
  • Dave2l said:

    Our defence is great but attacking wise (currently) we are not close to being one of the best teams in the championship.

    Yes how good a predictor is goal difference, quite a wide range shown in the tables.
  • edited October 2014
    I got a "new article" and a "sticky" - have I made it??

    When do I get my CL badge? :-)




    Looking through for more little bits of info that might be interesting.
  • Dave2l said:

    Our defence is great but attacking wise (currently) we are not close to being one of the best teams in the championship.

    Yes how good a predictor is goal difference, quite a wide range shown in the tables.
    I'll have a look at GD and promoted clubs now.
  • Three of the four undefeated teams after 10 got promoted. QPR twice, and Wigan, but Boro were undefeated and didn't make it. On that measure we have a 75% chance of going up :-)
  • seth plum said:

    Three of the four undefeated teams after 10 got promoted. QPR twice, and Wigan, but Boro were undefeated and didn't make it. On that measure we have a 75% chance of going up :-)

    That's the kind of thing we're looking for! :-)
  • edited October 2014

    Dave2l said:

    Our defence is great but attacking wise (currently) we are not close to being one of the best teams in the championship.

    Yes how good a predictor is goal difference, quite a wide range shown in the tables.
    I'll have a look at GD and promoted clubs now.
    Got down all the GF and GA in a document. First little fact I've got is that our goals for/against record is identical to the Blackpool team that got promoted through the play-offs in 2009/10. (GF 13 GA 9)
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  • edited October 2014
    QPR got promoted last season after only scoring 10 goals at this stage last season, that's the lowest total for goals scored.

    Reading won the league title after scoring only 11 goals from their first 10 games in 2011/12.

    Burnley are the only team to have won promotion with a negative goal difference at this stage of the season. In the 2008/09 season they had -2 GD after 10 games.
  • edited October 2014
    The team who have conceded the most goals from their opening 10 fixtures and still achieved promotion are... Crystal Palace in 2012/13. (GF 18 GA 17)
  • edited October 2014
    The average amount of goals scored by a side that went on to win promotion is, after ten games, 16.966...7.

    The average amount of goals conceded by a side that went on to win promotion is, after ten games, 11.566..7.



    That leaves an average goal difference of 5.4. :-)
  • Which of the current championship teams have parachute payments?
  • edited October 2014
    Wow!

    thankyou Callum , saddo that i am , that will keep me entertained for weeks!
  • Callum
    can you PM me with the method you used to put those tables into the article as I would like to do similar for the Statbank instead of the pdf attatchment.

    good article
  • Which of the current championship teams have parachute payments?

    The three relegated last season - Norwich, Cardiff and Fulham - very different performance
    Wigan, Wolves, Reading, Blackburn, Birmingham (run out?) and Bolton

    I would suggest that Blackburn, Bolton, Wigan and Reading are in trouble when the payments run out if they cannot push back up the table.

    There's a lot to be said for viewing this as an 18 month play with CAFC growing stronger and more experienced every six months, every window.

    Understanding the points required now and at Christmas might help us manage expectations and enjoy the season and results. I note the bookies have moved us down to 11-1 for promotion and us way out for relegation.
  • Callum
    can you PM me with the method you used to put those tables into the article as I would like to do similar for the Statbank instead of the pdf attatchment.

    good article

    Sent you a PM. :-)
  • Luton had 18 from 10 with a plus 4 goal difference in 2005/06 and spent most of the time since then either getting relegated or playing in the conference. But they were not unbeaten so we should be fine.

    Interesting that Coventry were P10 Pts 15 for four consecutive seasons and then headed south.
  • edited October 2014
    Dave2l said:

    Our defence is great but attacking wise (currently) we are not close to being one of the best teams in the championship.

    We are not that bad, only 9 teams have scored more than us and 4 of them have only scored 1 more than us(this season)
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  • Just looked it up and CAFC would have needed 33 points after 20 games to stay sixth in the last couple of seasons.
    So 15 points from the next ten - not a big ask!
    Perhaps at that point there will be more noises about permanent signings in January?
  • Very interesting. Now I would like to see a measurement of how effective it has been for clubs to take action/spend money in the January window, bearing in mind that we will be in a position to do so ourselves next January.
  • You need to take into account how hard each team's first 10 fixtures were.
  • Shrewd fellow is Roland. The secret of a good business is good people, with good guidance and motivation, and he certainly knows how to pick them. A thing that I like particularly is that both Katrien and Bob are happy to talk openly and honestly, making me feel as if I am really part of things. I hope that the couple of missing thousands will be turning up soon to enjoy the atmosphere.
  • Granpa said:

    Shrewd fellow is Roland. The secret of a good business is good people, with good guidance and motivation, and he certainly knows how to pick them. A thing that I like particularly is that both Katrien and Bob are happy to talk openly and honestly, making me feel as if I am really part of things. I hope that the couple of missing thousands will be turning up soon to enjoy the atmosphere.

    Agree, the manager has clarity of purpose and methods and appears not to be a political animal so has the confidence not to use cliches and doublespeak to avoid being tied down to an opinion which might be used against him. Contrast his utterings with Pardew interviews which are mostly incoherent waffle.
  • Granpa said:

    Shrewd fellow is Roland. The secret of a good business is good people, with good guidance and motivation, and he certainly knows how to pick them. A thing that I like particularly is that both Katrien and Bob are happy to talk openly and honestly, making me feel as if I am really part of things. I hope that the couple of missing thousands will be turning up soon to enjoy the atmosphere.

    I believe that the new openness is related to the fact that both speak English as a second language and therefore say it as it is. Very refreshing indeed after the obfuscation of the previous owners and management!
  • Very nicely put together @Callumcafc‌. While it's important to be careful when interpreting this type of data, especially when the sample size isn't very large, your analysis does seem to demonstrate that league table position after ten games is a decent lead indicator for the league table come May.

    That conclusion is interesting and isn't necessarily as obvious as some might imagine. I'd suggest the results reflect three different factors; 1) results over ten games tell us a lot about how good teams are and hence how many points they might get over the remaining thirty six matches, 2) the points gained (or not) over the first ten games can be significant enough to influence final league table position, however good (or bad) a team is and 3) the rather nebulous, but potentially important impact of a good (or bad) start on momentum and confidence.

    In our case, our good start has significantly reduced our odds of relegation which have now moved out towards 20/1. In this respect I'd say that the points already in the bag are a significant factor in those odds, though we are obviously a much more resilient side than many had expected and we have positive momentum.

    On the other hand, David Whelan and Vincent Tan would have cause for concern if they looked at your post. You'd expect both Cardiff and Wigan to get more points than us over the remainder of the season, but the evidence suggests that they now have a lot to do to compensate for their poor starts. Indeed, their odds of promotion are now no better than ours according to the bookies. My own assessment is that the bookies probably have this wrong, but nevertheless there has been a huge swing in expectations in just ten matches.

    Anyway, interesting stuff.
  • On the front of the suns football bit today about us being unbeaten (along with Chelsea arsenal forest and Bristol City) - picture of bob between mourinho and wenger!
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