Only Charlton.......

C_A_F_C said:

Let's see if they're wrong first eh?

Football is a results business, no room for wait and see. PEETERS OUT!!

Reckon even if we won the Premier League... signed Messi / Ronaldo / Neuer etc... we'd still be favs for the drop!!

killerandflash said:

Much prefer it that way, being billy top dog is no fun, you have all the pressure on you.

Imagine Burnley before last season. No pressure, no expectation

Being billy top dog is great fun! How good was the 11/12 season?

Henry Irving said:

Bookies odds aren't predictions.

They move up and down based on money wagered.

Stick a £100k on Charlton today and see them move sharpish.

I think we've covered this a thousand times before but original odds are predictions based on information gathered by the bookmakers i.e. Past form, Squad strength etc. The odds are effected by money wagered but that tends not to happen too much with popular markets.

Henry Irving said:

Bookies odds aren't predictions.

They move up and down based on money wagered.

Stick a £100k on Charlton today and see them move sharpish.

Can you lend me £100k?

colthe3rd said:

ValleyGary said:

Henry Irving said:

Bookies odds aren't predictions.

They move up and down based on money wagered.

Stick a £100k on Charlton today and see them move sharpish.

I think we've covered this a thousand times before but original odds are predictions based on information gathered by the bookmakers i.e. Past form, Squad strength etc. The odds are effected by money wagered but that tends not to happen too much with popular markets.

Whilst I agree, this isn't exactly a popular market so a large wager would move the price. I'd also add the oddsmakers are likely to have a look at the general feeling around the club as well as statistical information, so things like the previews for the season will no doubt have an impact.

Initial prices are based on last years performance, the teams that came up, the teams that were relegated from the Prem, squad changes (ours is significant with mainly unproven players coming in), managerial changes, likely money available for January window and an anticipation of likely betting activity. Based on that we would be rightly to be one of the favourites for relegation and outsiders for promotion.

It's a pretty popular market and it would take fairly big money to move the price. But 80/1 in to 50/1 (0.72%) is less significant in the book than 20/1 in to 16/1 (1.1%). And if we were 50/1 to win then I don't think many would question that. Also add the fact that most money wagered is focused around the first few in the betting.

This year's dark horses.... We know how much has gone on behind the scenes!

We are unknown quantities, and bookies and pundits seem to assume the worst when that's the case.
In both 85-86 and 97-98 promotion seasons we were unfancied for promotion, and the bookies were unimpressed by our summer signings. For Humphrey/Reid, Mendonca/Bowen, read Igor and the Icelander this time round... I think we are underestimated by the bookies again, and have accordingly had a small wager in the handicap bet (as i did in'97, which we won by a mile)

The_President said:

Bookies dont get many things wrong.

They got the World Cup wrong for starters. In the regular competition with my buddies I decided to base all my selections entirely on the bookies odds. As a result I had Spain to come third. And that's just the start. Mind you I called England right. That wasn't difficult.

Vetokele down from 150:1 to 100:1 as leading scorer(worth a punt each way?). And we are no longer in the three favourites for relegation...just. The odds will shift over the season but it's clear the bookies have not recognised the calibre of some of our signings

Henry Irving said:

Bookies odds aren't predictions.

They move up and down based on money wagered.

Stick a £100k on Charlton today and see them move sharpish.

As above, Bookies odds are predictions! The odds on promotion, relegation, spread betting and handicap are all based on their perception of the market and future outcomes...
Just as Pullis odds moved rapidly as news started to break that he was leaving them stripey fellas
Naturally a bookie will move odds or lay off a position if it gets too hot but, in the main the odds are the perception... Good job we are no longer third favourites for relegation - wasn't money that moved us but the antics at Huddersfield and their big loss the other day.

Let's see what the odds state at the end of August and September.

Just remembered reading this as well. Made my blood boil at the time
http://www.football365.com/f365-features/9409772/F365-s-Championship-Preview

Favourites for the drop with Blackpool and the lion cubs but like others have said absolutely no pressure on us now so all this lazy reporting probably doing us a favour.

kafka said:

jac52 said:

Just remembered reading this as well. Made my blood boil at the time
http://www.football365.com/f365-features/9409772/F365-s-Championship-Preview

Favourites for the drop with Blackpool and the lion cubs but like others have said absolutely no pressure on us now so all this lazy reporting probably doing us a favour.

442 magazine also tipped us for the drop. But then they also said we played at Valley Parade. Says it all really.

Did they not say we would finish 14th, the year we won League 1 with a record points total?