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The influence of the EU on Britain.

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  • Macron the EU's pin up boy hiding somewhere while
    riots going on in Paris, also trouble in Brussels and Marseilles.
    Jeremy on working/holiday in Portugal.
    All going so well for the Remainers!
    Bring on another vote!

    Everything will be better once we leave - should be a smooth transition. Some great minds on the Brexit side:
    Farage
    BOJO
    Robinson

    We want our country back!
  • Neither Corbyn nor May want to be the first to suggest a 2nd referendum because they both fear it will be seen as betrayal by a section of their electoral support.

    However, one or both could be forced into making such a move this week, depending by how much May loses.

    Expect to see Umunna, Soubry and Cable jointly raising this again later in the week, and one of the party leaders ‘reluctantly’ agreeing it is the way forward.
  • stonemuse said:

    Neither Corbyn nor May want to be the first to suggest a 2nd referendum because they both fear it will be seen as betrayal by a section of their electoral support.

    However, one or both could be forced into making such a move this week, depending by how much May loses.

    Expect to see Umunna, Soubry and Cable jointly raising this again later in the week, and one of the party leaders ‘reluctantly’ agreeing it is the way forward.

    Both yourself and I think May is perhaps controlling this a little more than everyone thinks.
    IE there is PERHAPS some plan behind the plan. But we'll never ever know.

    I can see her sitting "at home" when we have voted again to remain and May saying privately to herself "job done".
  • Chizz said:

    TelMc32 said:

    seth plum said:

    Fiiish said:

    Chaz Hill said:

    Uncle Rup making his position clear via his Scum outlet. A second referendum without Remain as an option (because it lost in 2016)!

    Not a bad shout really. We should at least LEAVE before any 2nd vote. If not then take remain off the table & then see what the options are.
    Again there is no precedent that the referendum result ought to be carried out before a confirmation vote.

    And there are also the small matters of:

    1) the electoral fraud that delivered the result
    2) it being an explicitly non-binding referendum
    3) the fact that No Deal was never discussed during the referendum and there is therefore no mandate for leaving the EU without a deal

    As usual, if the S*n are advocating 1 thing, the proper and correct thing to do would be to do the opposite, considering it's a racist Anti-British rag of bile.
    To answer your points;

    1) There is no actual proof of fraud....so until the SFO or the police bring a case this is a non issue

    2) I heard somewhere recently (Politics Live on BBC2 I think) that is was most definitely binding & was written into the terms by David Cameron.

    3) just plain crap. NO DEALS AT ALL were discussed during the Referendum. We were asked if we wanted to leave or stay. Not how or when. Leave means leave....by whatever measure the UK Government decides

    You can keep trying to dodge the issue as much as you like but it's as clear as day. In June 2016 the electorate voted to leave & Article 50 is in law. We leave on the 29th of March 2019. The only way that can be stopped is by an Act of Parliament.

    Btw. Norway plus is a disaster waiting yo happen. Even worse than TM's deal. We get to stay in the CU, keep free movement of people AND pay money for the privilege. Wtf ??

    If any of the new "deals" being bandied about should be considered then Canada +++ is probably the best. Failing that then leave with no deal.
    Have your leave, nobody is stopping you. As you knew what you were voting for all you need to do is provide a workable solution for the practicalities on the newly created physical borders between the UK and the EU.
    Need to get a move on as you have had two and a half years already.
    I haven't had 2 odd years.....not me making the decision mate. I woukd have just put up a border. Our country...our laws. Sod the GFA.

    Over & out.
    Plenty of competition, but definitely contender for most twattish post ever!
    This is unfair and uncalled for.

    I totally disagree with the suggestion @golfaddick has posted. Because it's ill-informed, unsustainable, dangerous and inflammatory. But he's perfectly entitled to his opinion, however harmful it might be.

    This is one of the problems about Brexit and about the referendum itself. It grants three types of people exactly the same amount of power, ie one vote. One type of person is someone well-informed, with a full and detailed grasp of all the issues, facts and implications around leaving the EU and how it should be done, if at all. The second type - and I would say Golfie is one of many such type on this thread - is an honest voter, but someone who is clear on their intention (leave or remain), but sanguine as to how it's achieved or the poor effect it will have. And the third, is a dishonest voter, intent on influencing more voters with their lies, dissembling, obfuscation and deceit. The third type includes Farage, Rees-Mogg, Davis and others.

    That's the problem. Whether you rely on facts (type 1), feelings (type 2) or you're a liar (type 3) you get a vote. And worse still, type 3s get to influence the largest number of people; type 2s get to spout simple, unfiltered feelings and are never held to account for the problems those feelings exacerbate; and type 1s are marginalised.

    Anyway, the point is this - Golfie is allowed to hold ridiculous and harmful opinions and to share them. But it would be interesting to see if he can justify the obvious (surely..?) harm those opinions would cause.
    I like a lot of what you post @Chizz, but I’ll stick with my original post on this one.

    Anyone with even the simplest understanding of what has happened in Northern Ireland before and after the GFA, wouldn’t make such a glib statement.

    Brexit will cause hardship for a great many people, but the implications of getting it wrong can be a damn sight more dangerous for my family & friends in the North & the Republic.

    Within the second group you mention are those who are ignorant of the very thing they are being asked their opinion on...but a good number of them will give it to you anyway.

    I haven’t joined this thread too often. There are some great and informed posters on both sides, but others are either on a wind-up, ignorant or a mix of both. I feel the frustration of many who try to make reasoned points, but a comment like that is just crass and dangerous.
  • stonemuse said:

    Neither Corbyn nor May want to be the first to suggest a 2nd referendum because they both fear it will be seen as betrayal by a section of their electoral support.

    However, one or both could be forced into making such a move this week, depending by how much May loses.

    Expect to see Umunna, Soubry and Cable jointly raising this again later in the week, and one of the party leaders ‘reluctantly’ agreeing it is the way forward.

    Both yourself and I think May is perhaps controlling this a little more than everyone thinks.
    IE there is PERHAPS some plan behind the plan. But we'll never ever know.

    I can see her sitting "at home" when we have voted again to remain and May saying privately to herself "job done".
    Despite the fact that she delivered one of the more thorough and thoughtful speeches before the referendum in favour of 'Remain' - link below - I think it's somewhat over-flattering to her to suggest that she has been playing a cunning 'long game' aimed at achieving a 'Remain' outcome:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/home-secretarys-speech-on-the-uk-eu-and-our-place-in-the-world
  • micks1950 said:

    stonemuse said:

    Neither Corbyn nor May want to be the first to suggest a 2nd referendum because they both fear it will be seen as betrayal by a section of their electoral support.

    However, one or both could be forced into making such a move this week, depending by how much May loses.

    Expect to see Umunna, Soubry and Cable jointly raising this again later in the week, and one of the party leaders ‘reluctantly’ agreeing it is the way forward.

    Both yourself and I think May is perhaps controlling this a little more than everyone thinks.
    IE there is PERHAPS some plan behind the plan. But we'll never ever know.

    I can see her sitting "at home" when we have voted again to remain and May saying privately to herself "job done".
    Despite the fact that she delivered one of the more thorough and thoughtful speeches before the referendum in favour of 'Remain' - link below - I think it's somewhat over-flattering to her to suggest that she has been playing a cunning 'long game' aimed at achieving a 'Remain' outcome:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/home-secretarys-speech-on-the-uk-eu-and-our-place-in-the-world
    I agree, don't misunderstand me.
    But I think if you drag it all out long enough, until you've nearly run out of time.
    Try and push a plan that not enough will accept.
    You then maybe come to an impasse, where you can have another vote without ever having to propose it.
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  • TelMc32 said:

    Chizz said:

    TelMc32 said:

    seth plum said:

    Fiiish said:

    Chaz Hill said:

    Uncle Rup making his position clear via his Scum outlet. A second referendum without Remain as an option (because it lost in 2016)!

    Not a bad shout really. We should at least LEAVE before any 2nd vote. If not then take remain off the table & then see what the options are.
    Again there is no precedent that the referendum result ought to be carried out before a confirmation vote.

    And there are also the small matters of:

    1) the electoral fraud that delivered the result
    2) it being an explicitly non-binding referendum
    3) the fact that No Deal was never discussed during the referendum and there is therefore no mandate for leaving the EU without a deal

    As usual, if the S*n are advocating 1 thing, the proper and correct thing to do would be to do the opposite, considering it's a racist Anti-British rag of bile.
    To answer your points;

    1) There is no actual proof of fraud....so until the SFO or the police bring a case this is a non issue

    2) I heard somewhere recently (Politics Live on BBC2 I think) that is was most definitely binding & was written into the terms by David Cameron.

    3) just plain crap. NO DEALS AT ALL were discussed during the Referendum. We were asked if we wanted to leave or stay. Not how or when. Leave means leave....by whatever measure the UK Government decides

    You can keep trying to dodge the issue as much as you like but it's as clear as day. In June 2016 the electorate voted to leave & Article 50 is in law. We leave on the 29th of March 2019. The only way that can be stopped is by an Act of Parliament.

    Btw. Norway plus is a disaster waiting yo happen. Even worse than TM's deal. We get to stay in the CU, keep free movement of people AND pay money for the privilege. Wtf ??

    If any of the new "deals" being bandied about should be considered then Canada +++ is probably the best. Failing that then leave with no deal.
    Have your leave, nobody is stopping you. As you knew what you were voting for all you need to do is provide a workable solution for the practicalities on the newly created physical borders between the UK and the EU.
    Need to get a move on as you have had two and a half years already.
    I haven't had 2 odd years.....not me making the decision mate. I woukd have just put up a border. Our country...our laws. Sod the GFA.

    Over & out.
    Plenty of competition, but definitely contender for most twattish post ever!
    This is unfair and uncalled for.

    I totally disagree with the suggestion @golfaddick has posted. Because it's ill-informed, unsustainable, dangerous and inflammatory. But he's perfectly entitled to his opinion, however harmful it might be.

    This is one of the problems about Brexit and about the referendum itself. It grants three types of people exactly the same amount of power, ie one vote. One type of person is someone well-informed, with a full and detailed grasp of all the issues, facts and implications around leaving the EU and how it should be done, if at all. The second type - and I would say Golfie is one of many such type on this thread - is an honest voter, but someone who is clear on their intention (leave or remain), but sanguine as to how it's achieved or the poor effect it will have. And the third, is a dishonest voter, intent on influencing more voters with their lies, dissembling, obfuscation and deceit. The third type includes Farage, Rees-Mogg, Davis and others.

    That's the problem. Whether you rely on facts (type 1), feelings (type 2) or you're a liar (type 3) you get a vote. And worse still, type 3s get to influence the largest number of people; type 2s get to spout simple, unfiltered feelings and are never held to account for the problems those feelings exacerbate; and type 1s are marginalised.

    Anyway, the point is this - Golfie is allowed to hold ridiculous and harmful opinions and to share them. But it would be interesting to see if he can justify the obvious (surely..?) harm those opinions would cause.
    I like a lot of what you post @Chizz, but I’ll stick with my original post on this one.

    Anyone with even the simplest understanding of what has happened in Northern Ireland before and after the GFA, wouldn’t make such a glib statement.

    Brexit will cause hardship for a great many people, but the implications of getting it wrong can be a damn sight more dangerous for my family & friends in the North & the Republic.

    Within the second group you mention are those who are ignorant of the very thing they are being asked their opinion on...but a good number of them will give it to you anyway.

    I haven’t joined this thread too often. There are some great and informed posters on both sides, but others are either on a wind-up, ignorant or a mix of both. I feel the frustration of many who try to make reasoned points, but a comment like that is just crass and dangerous.
    I agree with you completely. Especially the bit I have emboldened. But I don't think it's right to suggest Golfie has even the simplest understanding of the GFA and its impact on both sides of the border.

    My post might have been fairer if I had simply said there are some people who understand the issue and some who are wilfully or inadvertently ignorant; and unfortunately, everyone's vote counts the same.
  • TelMc32 said:

    seth plum said:

    Fiiish said:

    Chaz Hill said:

    Uncle Rup making his position clear via his Scum outlet. A second referendum without Remain as an option (because it lost in 2016)!

    Not a bad shout really. We should at least LEAVE before any 2nd vote. If not then take remain off the table & then see what the options are.
    Again there is no precedent that the referendum result ought to be carried out before a confirmation vote.

    And there are also the small matters of:

    1) the electoral fraud that delivered the result
    2) it being an explicitly non-binding referendum
    3) the fact that No Deal was never discussed during the referendum and there is therefore no mandate for leaving the EU without a deal

    As usual, if the S*n are advocating 1 thing, the proper and correct thing to do would be to do the opposite, considering it's a racist Anti-British rag of bile.
    To answer your points;

    1) There is no actual proof of fraud....so until the SFO or the police bring a case this is a non issue

    2) I heard somewhere recently (Politics Live on BBC2 I think) that is was most definitely binding & was written into the terms by David Cameron.

    3) just plain crap. NO DEALS AT ALL were discussed during the Referendum. We were asked if we wanted to leave or stay. Not how or when. Leave means leave....by whatever measure the UK Government decides

    You can keep trying to dodge the issue as much as you like but it's as clear as day. In June 2016 the electorate voted to leave & Article 50 is in law. We leave on the 29th of March 2019. The only way that can be stopped is by an Act of Parliament.

    Btw. Norway plus is a disaster waiting yo happen. Even worse than TM's deal. We get to stay in the CU, keep free movement of people AND pay money for the privilege. Wtf ??

    If any of the new "deals" being bandied about should be considered then Canada +++ is probably the best. Failing that then leave with no deal.
    Have your leave, nobody is stopping you. As you knew what you were voting for all you need to do is provide a workable solution for the practicalities on the newly created physical borders between the UK and the EU.
    Need to get a move on as you have had two and a half years already.
    I haven't had 2 odd years.....not me making the decision mate. I woukd have just put up a border. Our country...our laws. Sod the GFA.

    Over & out.
    Plenty of competition, but definitely contender for most twattish post ever!
    @golfaddick

    You do understand that the Counties of Northern Ireland are just as much part of the United Kingdom as Yorkshire or Kent ?

    The people’s of those six counties would dearly love to see the continued peace that the GFA has provided and keep their loved ones safe from a return to the previous terrors. I might add that it’s also kept you a lot safer too.

    Your comment is crass in the extreme and epitomises the ignorance shown to the situation by little Englanders who think that because there is the Irish Sea separating NI from the mainland it is somehow less important or relelevent than eg the Home Counties or Wales.



    We are leaving the EU. The ROI are in the EU, NI are in the UK. To leave the CU & free movement or goods, services & people there needs to be a border between the 2. It is a simple as that. What type of border it is (hard, soft or invisible/remote) & who builds & maintains it is down to the EU/UK to agree. The GFA shouldn't come into it. It might have been signed by the UK Government but that should stop everything else.

    I will keep on saying it. Terrorism has won. If the threat of violence means we don't /cant leave the EU then there is no democracy. Otherwise I'll just start lobbing bombs at people on the name of "freedom".
    What about the democracy that you are denying your fellow Brits who happen to live in a part of the nation it would seem you couldn’t give two fucks about ?

    Just admit you know nothing and care less about anyone other than what’s in your little englander bubble.



  • After reading some of the political columns and watching some of the political programs this weekend my conclusion is that she made up her mind a few weeks back that she has had enough. It seems she has simply stopped listening to her cabinet advisors. And is intent on pushing through with the vote knowing full well it will fail. In her own mind she has worked incredibly hard to achieve a Brexit of some sorts, one that won’t ruin the country for decades, and if it gets rejected by her own party then so be it. I think she has made up her mind she will resign on Tuesday if she loses the vote.
  • After reading some of the political columns and watching some of the political programs this weekend my conclusion is that she made up her mind a few weeks back that she has had enough. It seems she has simply stopped listening to her cabinet advisors. And is intent on pushing through with the vote knowing full well it will fail. In her own mind she has worked incredibly hard to achieve a Brexit of some sorts, one that won’t ruin the country for decades, and if it gets rejected by her own party then so be it. I think she has made up her mind she will resign on Tuesday if she loses the vote.

    That’s a decent enough assessment.

  • edited December 2018
    stonemuse said:
    I have to admit I don’t really understand the EU/CH relationship. I work in Switzerland a few times a year and my understanding is that they are in the single market (and presumably CU) but when I was there a year or so ago they were having a referendum about limiting migration from the EU and I now have to register if I’m going there for longer than a few days (not sure if what I get is technically described as a visa). Not sure if anyone is able to explain what sort of deal they have that gives them that sort of control over immigration whilst remaining close to the SM and part of the CU as it sounds like a good compromise for us but doesn’t seem to have been touted as much as Norway?
  • stonemuse said:

    Neither Corbyn nor May want to be the first to suggest a 2nd referendum because they both fear it will be seen as betrayal by a section of their electoral support.

    However, one or both could be forced into making such a move this week, depending by how much May loses.

    Expect to see Umunna, Soubry and Cable jointly raising this again later in the week, and one of the party leaders ‘reluctantly’ agreeing it is the way forward.

    The only realistic options are Parliament voting through the WA or they facilitate a second referendum. Some weeks ago I posted a link to an article suggesting that Soubry, Umunna and the others had around 100 MPs supporting a motion or an amendment. It's quite simple to see that winning through over the next few weeks should the WA fail as expected.

    The Labour and Tory front benches are positioning themselves for that - May with her national tour and Corbyn (et al) giving various interviews suggesting the possibility. As you say we need to see the result on Tuesday and whether May survives any attempts on either her leadership or her government. But both of those risks have been discounted as marginal by commentators in the last few days.
  • TelMc32 said:

    seth plum said:

    Fiiish said:

    Chaz Hill said:

    Uncle Rup making his position clear via his Scum outlet. A second referendum without Remain as an option (because it lost in 2016)!

    Not a bad shout really. We should at least LEAVE before any 2nd vote. If not then take remain off the table & then see what the options are.
    Again there is no precedent that the referendum result ought to be carried out before a confirmation vote.

    And there are also the small matters of:

    1) the electoral fraud that delivered the result
    2) it being an explicitly non-binding referendum
    3) the fact that No Deal was never discussed during the referendum and there is therefore no mandate for leaving the EU without a deal

    As usual, if the S*n are advocating 1 thing, the proper and correct thing to do would be to do the opposite, considering it's a racist Anti-British rag of bile.
    To answer your points;

    1) There is no actual proof of fraud....so until the SFO or the police bring a case this is a non issue

    2) I heard somewhere recently (Politics Live on BBC2 I think) that is was most definitely binding & was written into the terms by David Cameron.

    3) just plain crap. NO DEALS AT ALL were discussed during the Referendum. We were asked if we wanted to leave or stay. Not how or when. Leave means leave....by whatever measure the UK Government decides

    You can keep trying to dodge the issue as much as you like but it's as clear as day. In June 2016 the electorate voted to leave & Article 50 is in law. We leave on the 29th of March 2019. The only way that can be stopped is by an Act of Parliament.

    Btw. Norway plus is a disaster waiting yo happen. Even worse than TM's deal. We get to stay in the CU, keep free movement of people AND pay money for the privilege. Wtf ??

    If any of the new "deals" being bandied about should be considered then Canada +++ is probably the best. Failing that then leave with no deal.
    Have your leave, nobody is stopping you. As you knew what you were voting for all you need to do is provide a workable solution for the practicalities on the newly created physical borders between the UK and the EU.
    Need to get a move on as you have had two and a half years already.
    I haven't had 2 odd years.....not me making the decision mate. I woukd have just put up a border. Our country...our laws. Sod the GFA.

    Over & out.
    Plenty of competition, but definitely contender for most twattish post ever!
    @golfaddick

    You do understand that the Counties of Northern Ireland are just as much part of the United Kingdom as Yorkshire or Kent ?

    The people’s of those six counties would dearly love to see the continued peace that the GFA has provided and keep their loved ones safe from a return to the previous terrors. I might add that it’s also kept you a lot safer too.

    Your comment is crass in the extreme and epitomises the ignorance shown to the situation by little Englanders who think that because there is the Irish Sea separating NI from the mainland it is somehow less important or relelevent than eg the Home Counties or Wales.



    We are leaving the EU. The ROI are in the EU, NI are in the UK. To leave the CU & free movement or goods, services & people there needs to be a border between the 2. It is a simple as that. What type of border it is (hard, soft or invisible/remote) & who builds & maintains it is down to the EU/UK to agree. The GFA shouldn't come into it. It might have been signed by the UK Government but that should stop everything else.

    I will keep on saying it. Terrorism has won. If the threat of violence means we don't /cant leave the EU then there is no democracy. Otherwise I'll just start lobbing bombs at people on the name of "freedom".
    Even if the GFA shouldn't come into it, which I think it should overarchingly, your post suggests there should be some 'type' of border but that it should be down to the EU/UK to 'agree' (what if they don't agree?), so to move back to the now age old theme, there are 400km of border, over 200 crossing points, and people whose properties, and indeed actual homes span the border.
    For the EU to 'agree' something they need a suggestion from the UK, but the UK spurred on by the brexit result have not suggested anything to agree to, or disagree with.
    Nothing of what I have written is about a threat of violence (which does indeed lurk in the background) but even in a purely peaceful context the UK can't suggest how the border will work in practical terms.
    I assume brexiters have the answer because they knew what they were voting for, but it is brexiters not having the answers that is holding up brexit, certainly not the EU.
  • edited December 2018
    The 17.4M who voted Leave back in 2016 is a huge number of voters. By placing the 17.4M in today's context we should recognise that the total electorate is up to 49M from 46M and that the latest polls are showing:

    B) Remain has been growing at 1% per month since Chequers came out - now polling over 50%. Even if say 20% remain supporters didn't come out on the day that still represents 20M voters. Leave might still poll 17M but a reduced % of an enlarged electorate - we have discussed the reasons why before

    B) There's a 60:40 lead for a second referendum or 46% polled with 24% don't know and 30% against. That 46% represents 22 million voters

    B) The Independent indicates a 50:50 split on the Norway option with roughly 40% for or against - or 19M each way.

    The poll published in the Independent suggests that if there were to be a second referendum in 2019 then Leave might just about secure another 17M votes as the electorate has grown but the real headline is that Remain fired up by a campaign that knows it has a point to prove could secure 20 million votes.

    That is the way to win a case in a democracy. Give the reasons why a proposal won't work, allow the protagonists to run with it for a while, and when they fail to bring anything useful to the table, have another discussion and another vote. And despite the identity politics involved, those leading the campaigns need to focus on winning swing voters as well as getting the base out.

    There really is no need to disrespect the 17.4M, especially those who have died. The country simply needed to examine the options in front of us and then agree to take a second look at the possibilities. Ideally the nation will mature as a result and there will be less tolerance of outright lies and misrepresentation. But that is an ideal and the reality is that the nationalists will pull every trick in the book to win the day.

    That should not be a cause for concern since the electorate, the politicians and the media should have learnt from 2016 and the period since. The best deal on offer is the one we currently enjoy. One hopes that the political process allows for this to be voted on in 2019 before it's too late.
  • The 17.4M who voted Leave back in 2016 is a huge number of voters. By placing the 17.4M in today's context we should recognise that the total electorate is up to 49M from 46M and that the latest polls are showing:

    B) Remain has been growing at 1% per month since Chequers came out - now polling over 50%. Even if say 20% remain supporters didn't come out on the day that still represents 20M voters. Leave might still poll 17M but a reduced % of an enlarged electorate - we have discussed the reasons why before

    B) There's a 60:40 lead for a second referendum or 46% polled with 24% don't know and 30% against. That 46% represents 22 million voters

    B) The Independent indicates a 50:50 split on the Norway option with roughly 40% for or against - or 19M each way.

    The poll published in the Independent suggests that if there were to be a second referendum in 2019 then Leave might just about secure another 17M votes as the electorate has grown but the real headline is that Remain fired up by a campaign that knows it has a point to prove could secure 20 million votes.

    That is the way to win a case in a democracy. Give the reasons why a proposal won't work, allow the protagonists to run with it for a while, and when they fail to bring anything useful to the table, have another discussion and another vote. And despite the identity politics involved, those leading the campaigns need to focus on winning swing voters as well as getting the base out.

    There really is no need to disrespect the 17.4M, especially those who have died. The country simply needed to examine the options in front of us and then agree to take a second look at the possibilities. Ideally the nation will mature as a result and there will be less tolerance of outright lies and misrepresentation. But that is an ideal and the reality is that the nationalists will pull every trick in the book to win the day.

    That should not be a cause for concern since the electorate, the politicians and the media should have learnt from 2016 and the period since. The best deal on offer is the one we currently enjoy. One hopes that the political process allows for this to be voted on in 2019 before it's too late.

    How is it disrespectful to point out, as Heseltine does in virtually every interview, that many more Leave voters than Remain voters have died since the referendum? Just because some Leave posters on here and papers like the Daily Express choose to take offence it does not mean it is not a perfectly valid point to make
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  • edited December 2018

    The 17.4M who voted Leave back in 2016 is a huge number of voters. By placing the 17.4M in today's context we should recognise that the total electorate is up to 49M from 46M and that the latest polls are showing:

    B) Remain has been growing at 1% per month since Chequers came out - now polling over 50%. Even if say 20% remain supporters didn't come out on the day that still represents 20M voters. Leave might still poll 17M but a reduced % of an enlarged electorate - we have discussed the reasons why before

    B) There's a 60:40 lead for a second referendum or 46% polled with 24% don't know and 30% against. That 46% represents 22 million voters

    B) The Independent indicates a 50:50 split on the Norway option with roughly 40% for or against - or 19M each way.

    The poll published in the Independent suggests that if there were to be a second referendum in 2019 then Leave might just about secure another 17M votes as the electorate has grown but the real headline is that Remain fired up by a campaign that knows it has a point to prove could secure 20 million votes.

    That is the way to win a case in a democracy. Give the reasons why a proposal won't work, allow the protagonists to run with it for a while, and when they fail to bring anything useful to the table, have another discussion and another vote. And despite the identity politics involved, those leading the campaigns need to focus on winning swing voters as well as getting the base out.

    There really is no need to disrespect the 17.4M, especially those who have died. The country simply needed to examine the options in front of us and then agree to take a second look at the possibilities. Ideally the nation will mature as a result and there will be less tolerance of outright lies and misrepresentation. But that is an ideal and the reality is that the nationalists will pull every trick in the book to win the day.

    That should not be a cause for concern since the electorate, the politicians and the media should have learnt from 2016 and the period since. The best deal on offer is the one we currently enjoy. One hopes that the political process allows for this to be voted on in 2019 before it's too late.

    Well reasoned analysis ... but there are still many of us who had well-reasoned arguments to leave.
  • There must be some magical age where it is believed you become a brexit voter then I assume?

    On the basis of this implied assumption that those dying (of old age) are brexit voters and those getting to voting age are remainers , so the latter are increasing in number, but then surely there must also be those who were remainers but have now reached this magical age where they switch to a become a brexit voter?

  • I’ve just arrived in my hotel in Dublin. Taxi driver from the airport was a decent chat as I guess you’d expect.

    Dublin is booming but the rest of Ireland less so. However from where he sits, he still cannot believe we either a) were offered a referendum or b ) votes to leave the EU

    His main point is that we do not live in a world of the 1940s-1960s. The world has moved on and being a big player in the EU is something that Ireland dreams of and yet the UK has decided to try and chuck that away.

    We also agreed that it is not those who bot s for it but the generations that come after that will have to live with the effects.
  • There must be some magical age where it is believed you become a brexit voter then I assume?

    On the basis of this implied assumption that those dying (of old age) are brexit voters and those getting to voting age are remainers , so the latter are increasing in number, but then surely there must also be those who were remainers but have now reached this magical age where they switch to a become a brexit voter?

    Apparently, according to many on here, at a certain age many of us turn into morons and racists.










    :wink:
  • There must be some magical age where it is believed you become a brexit voter then I assume?

    On the basis of this implied assumption that those dying (of old age) are brexit voters and those getting to voting age are remainers , so the latter are increasing in number, but then surely there must also be those who were remainers but have now reached this magical age where they switch to a become a brexit voter?

    stonemuse said:

    There must be some magical age where it is believed you become a brexit voter then I assume?

    On the basis of this implied assumption that those dying (of old age) are brexit voters and those getting to voting age are remainers , so the latter are increasing in number, but then surely there must also be those who were remainers but have now reached this magical age where they switch to a become a brexit voter?

    Apparently, according to many on here, at a certain age many of us turn into morons and racists.










    :wink:
    No it’s just a statistical reality. More people in the over sixties age group voted leave than in the younger age groups. On that basis more leave voters will have popped their clogs.

  • stonemuse said:

    The 17.4M who voted Leave back in 2016 is a huge number of voters. By placing the 17.4M in today's context we should recognise that the total electorate is up to 49M from 46M and that the latest polls are showing:

    B) Remain has been growing at 1% per month since Chequers came out - now polling over 50%. Even if say 20% remain supporters didn't come out on the day that still represents 20M voters. Leave might still poll 17M but a reduced % of an enlarged electorate - we have discussed the reasons why before

    B) There's a 60:40 lead for a second referendum or 46% polled with 24% don't know and 30% against. That 46% represents 22 million voters

    B) The Independent indicates a 50:50 split on the Norway option with roughly 40% for or against - or 19M each way.

    The poll published in the Independent suggests that if there were to be a second referendum in 2019 then Leave might just about secure another 17M votes as the electorate has grown but the real headline is that Remain fired up by a campaign that knows it has a point to prove could secure 20 million votes.

    That is the way to win a case in a democracy. Give the reasons why a proposal won't work, allow the protagonists to run with it for a while, and when they fail to bring anything useful to the table, have another discussion and another vote. And despite the identity politics involved, those leading the campaigns need to focus on winning swing voters as well as getting the base out.

    There really is no need to disrespect the 17.4M, especially those who have died. The country simply needed to examine the options in front of us and then agree to take a second look at the possibilities. Ideally the nation will mature as a result and there will be less tolerance of outright lies and misrepresentation. But that is an ideal and the reality is that the nationalists will pull every trick in the book to win the day.

    That should not be a cause for concern since the electorate, the politicians and the media should have learnt from 2016 and the period since. The best deal on offer is the one we currently enjoy. One hopes that the political process allows for this to be voted on in 2019 before it's too late.

    Well reasoned analysis ... but there are still many of us who had well-reasoned arguments to leave.
    "Had", I have absolutely no doubts about. It's"have" that I'm struggling with.
  • There must be some magical age where it is believed you become a brexit voter then I assume?

    On the basis of this implied assumption that those dying (of old age) are brexit voters and those getting to voting age are remainers , so the latter are increasing in number, but then surely there must also be those who were remainers but have now reached this magical age where they switch to a become a brexit voter?

    stonemuse said:

    There must be some magical age where it is believed you become a brexit voter then I assume?

    On the basis of this implied assumption that those dying (of old age) are brexit voters and those getting to voting age are remainers , so the latter are increasing in number, but then surely there must also be those who were remainers but have now reached this magical age where they switch to a become a brexit voter?

    Apparently, according to many on here, at a certain age many of us turn into morons and racists.










    :wink:
    No it’s just a statistical reality. More people in the over sixties age group voted leave than in the younger age groups. On that basis more leave voters will have popped their clogs.

    No argument. He asked about the ‘magical’ switch age. I merely explained that it is one at which we turn into morons and racists :smiley:
  • I’ve just arrived in my hotel in Dublin. Taxi driver from the airport was a decent chat as I guess you’d expect.

    Dublin is booming but the rest of Ireland less so. However from where he sits, he still cannot believe we either a) were offered a referendum or b ) votes to leave the EU

    His main point is that we do not live in a world of the 1940s-1960s. The world has moved on and being a big player in the EU is something that Ireland dreams of and yet the UK has decided to try and chuck that away.

    We also agreed that it is not those who bot s for it but the generations that come after that will have to live with the effects.

    I used to work in Dublin regularly. Had some wonderful chats with taxi drivers on the way into the city. Loved the fact that they all knew about Charlton because of Keily and Kinsella.
This discussion has been closed.

Roland Out Forever!