After my two failed tips, none of you are willing to help me?
Bastards.
:-)
Personally i'd back S De Sousa's mounts e/w, apart from the last one of which the 3-40 he should win comfortably but i lose more than i win, good luck.
Total Recall - Ladbrokes Trophy (Hennessy) - 2 December.
My source quotes Mullins: "If the English handicapper doesn't go too hard on him he'll beat these senseless. Will go off 3/1"
Currently 8/1
Also - Samcro - Ballymore Novices Hurdle (formerly Neptune) at Cheltenham. Currently 5/1 so value sort of gone (I'm on at bigger thankfully) - it's a machine and "a class apart".
Samcro very impressive yesterday at Navan - now as low as 2/1 for the Ballymore.
Total Recall - Ladbrokes Trophy (Hennessy) - 2 December.
My source quotes Mullins: "If the English handicapper doesn't go too hard on him he'll beat these senseless. Will go off 3/1"
Currently 8/1
Also - Samcro - Ballymore Novices Hurdle (formerly Neptune) at Cheltenham. Currently 5/1 so value sort of gone (I'm on at bigger thankfully) - it's a machine and "a class apart".
Samcro very impressive yesterday at Navan - now as low as 2/1 for the Ballymore.
Backed Total Recall following your original post so looking forward to Saturday
Fine chaser, of course, Chief but age is against him for this race. Last winner older than 9 was 36 years ago.
Key stats:
• Unless previous winner (don't rule out near-missers), you want a runner younger than 9 - stats most favour 6 or 7 y-o
• 3-14 chases, winning or near-missing 40%+
• 0 or 1 run since June
• Not Irish-trained
• Rated 145+
Based on these, I shall be having an interest in:
AMERICAN 6/1 and CAROLE'S DESTRIER 25/1
biggest danger: SINGLEFARMPAYMENT 7/1
Completely agree. I would however much rather Cogry than Singlefarmpayment, who is 3x the odds and beat him on their last run fairly comfortably. He's quite well treated and at 20/1 is more than entitled to outrun his odds.
I'd be inclined to recommend American 1.5pts win, and both Carole's Destrier and Cogry 0.5pts e/w.
Fine chaser, of course, Chief but age is against him for this race. Last winner older than 9 was 36 years ago.
Key stats:
• Unless previous winner (don't rule out near-missers), you want a runner younger than 9 - stats most favour 6 or 7 y-o
• 3-14 chases, winning or near-missing 40%+
• 0 or 1 run since June
• Not Irish-trained
• Rated 145+
Based on these, I shall be having an interest in:
AMERICAN 6/1 and CAROLE'S DESTRIER 25/1
biggest danger: SINGLEFARMPAYMENT 7/1
Completely agree. I would however much rather Cogry than Singlefarmpayment, who is 3x the odds and beat him on their last run fairly comfortably. He's quite well treated and at 20/1 is more than entitled to outrun his odds.
I'd be inclined to recommend American 1.5pts win, and both Carole's Destrier and Cogry 0.5pts e/w.
Cheers Chief. Given the prices, it was a choice for me between American and Singlefarmpayment, both being top of the stats-list with Carole's Destrier. Like you, I have reservations about SFP so the former for me.
I do want a third runner on my slip however and, while very much respecting Cogry (I agree a nice e/w proposition at 20s), at the prices my final selection is: MISSED APPROACH (33/1)
Also looks well-in vs SFP (form line via Arpege d'Alene) and had one of the Irish fancies, A Genie In A Bottle (best price 10/1), well behind at the Festival at level weights (MA receives 7lbs on Sat). Course winner, albeit over the floppies. Dickie on board, looking for back-to-back wins - perfect pilot for MA's usual, prominent running-style. In fact, 10 of past 11 winners raced handy - as typically does American but not SFP.
Cogry has a few lbs in hand of him on Scot Nat form but the step back in trip should suit my fella, who ticks all the stats for the winning-profile bar one. Of course, we're looking at e/w propostions here (so let's hope both oblige) and, while the winners are typically 10/1 or shorter (though that's not a relevant stat for me), unsurprisingly for a big staying handicap chase, long shots often go well in this: 25/1+ runners making the frame in 9 of the last 11 Hennessys (and, for me, it shall forever be known as such) - the SPs of the 3 behind Native River last time were 25, 50, 33/1.
Fingers crossed.
EDIT: 21 declared - only once has there been a larger field in 50+ years.
Fine chaser, of course, Chief but age is against him for this race. Last winner older than 9 was 36 years ago.
Key stats:
• Unless previous winner (don't rule out near-missers), you want a runner younger than 9 - stats most favour 6 or 7 y-o
• 3-14 chases, winning or near-missing 40%+
• 0 or 1 run since June
• Not Irish-trained
• Rated 145+
Based on these, I shall be having an interest in:
AMERICAN 6/1 and CAROLE'S DESTRIER 25/1
biggest danger: SINGLEFARMPAYMENT 7/1
Completely agree. I would however much rather Cogry than Singlefarmpayment, who is 3x the odds and beat him on their last run fairly comfortably. He's quite well treated and at 20/1 is more than entitled to outrun his odds.
I'd be inclined to recommend American 1.5pts win, and both Carole's Destrier and Cogry 0.5pts e/w.
Cheers Chief. Given the prices, it was a choice for me between American and Singlefarmpayment, both being top of the stats-list with Carole's Destrier. Like you, I have reservations about SFP so the former for me.
I do want a third runner on my slip however and, while very much respecting Cogry (I agree a nice e/w proposition at 20s), at the prices my final selection is: MISSED APPROACH (33/1)
Also looks well-in vs SFP (form line via Arpege d'Alene) and had one of the Irish fancies, A Genie In A Bottle (best price 10/1), well behind at the Festival at level weights (MA receives 7lbs on Sat). Course winner, albeit over the floppies. Dickie on board, looking for back-to-back wins - perfect pilot for MA's usual, prominent running-style. In fact, 10 of past 11 winners raced handy - as typically does American but not SFP.
Cogry has a few lbs in hand of him on Scot Nat form but the step back in trip should suit my fella, who ticks all the stats for the winning-profile bar one. Of course, we're looking at e/w propostions here (so let's hope both oblige) and, while the winners are typically 10/1 or shorter (though that's not a relevant stat for me), unsurprisingly for a big staying handicap chase, long shots often go well in this: 25/1+ runners making the frame in 9 of the last 11 Hennessys (and, for me, it shall forever be known as such) - the SPs of the 3 behind Native River last time were 25, 50, 33/1.
Fingers crossed.
EDIT: 21 declared - only once has there been a larger field in 50+ years.
I am waiting for Ben Linfoot or Hugh Taylor or someone to tip up Missed Approach. Another that was on the list, but then again I would say me and my team consider win purposes more than you!
Cheers smiffy, too kind. Just having a little pre-Aintree warm-up. Which steed's carrying your shilling on Saturday?
BTW - great tip re Apples Shakira - sorely tempted (and of course now wish I'd succumbed) but long-since gave up on anything under 26f. Hope she brings home the bacon for you.
First-time blinkers for Missed Approach on Saturday (ditto Potters Legend and Southfield Royale). Greatrex put cheek pieces on him first-time for his close 2nd in the Festival 4-miler.
Something amiss with Thistlecrack there. And Yanworth was always overrated IMO.
If I were TC's connections, though, I wouldn't be unhappy - he's round safe, gets back after I presume a much-needed run, and will look better later in the season. (Plus there's the benefit that his odds might well lengthen for any ante-post considerations.)
Something amiss with Thistlecrack there. And Yanworth was always overrated IMO.
If I were TC's connections, though, I wouldn't be unhappy - he's round safe, gets back after I presume a much-needed run, and will look better later in the season. (Plus there's the benefit that his odds might well lengthen for any ante-post considerations.)
Mate had 20 quid on beer goggles at 50s. Beers on him tonight.
Something amiss with Thistlecrack there. And Yanworth was always overrated IMO.
If I were TC's connections, though, I wouldn't be unhappy - he's round safe, gets back after I presume a much-needed run, and will look better later in the season. (Plus there's the benefit that his odds might well lengthen for any ante-post considerations.)
Mate had 20 quid on beer goggles at 50s. Beers on him tonight.
Comments
After my two failed tips, none of you are willing to help me?
Bastards.
:-)
good luck.
Fuck it!
Key stats:
• Unless previous winner (don't rule out near-missers), you want a runner younger than 9 - stats most favour 6 or 7 y-o
• 3-14 chases, winning or near-missing 40%+
• 0 or 1 run since June
• Not Irish-trained
• Rated 145+
Based on these, I shall be having an interest in:
AMERICAN 6/1 and
CAROLE'S DESTRIER 25/1
biggest danger: SINGLEFARMPAYMENT 7/1
But just in case, can we have your National tips for the next ten years?
I'd be inclined to recommend American 1.5pts win, and both Carole's Destrier and Cogry 0.5pts e/w.
I do want a third runner on my slip however and, while very much respecting Cogry (I agree a nice e/w proposition at 20s), at the prices my final selection is: MISSED APPROACH (33/1)
Also looks well-in vs SFP (form line via Arpege d'Alene) and had one of the Irish fancies, A Genie In A Bottle (best price 10/1), well behind at the Festival at level weights (MA receives 7lbs on Sat). Course winner, albeit over the floppies. Dickie on board, looking for back-to-back wins - perfect pilot for MA's usual, prominent running-style. In fact, 10 of past 11 winners raced handy - as typically does American but not SFP.
Cogry has a few lbs in hand of him on Scot Nat form but the step back in trip should suit my fella, who ticks all the stats for the winning-profile bar one. Of course, we're looking at e/w propostions here (so let's hope both oblige) and, while the winners are typically 10/1 or shorter (though that's not a relevant stat for me), unsurprisingly for a big staying handicap chase, long shots often go well in this: 25/1+ runners making the frame in 9 of the last 11 Hennessys (and, for me, it shall forever be known as such) - the SPs of the 3 behind Native River last time were 25, 50, 33/1.
Fingers crossed.
EDIT: 21 declared - only once has there been a larger field in 50+ years.
Just having a little pre-Aintree warm-up. Which steed's carrying your shilling on Saturday?
BTW - great tip re Apples Shakira - sorely tempted (and of course now wish I'd succumbed) but long-since gave up on anything under 26f. Hope she brings home the bacon for you.
If I were TC's connections, though, I wouldn't be unhappy - he's round safe, gets back after I presume a much-needed run, and will look better later in the season. (Plus there's the benefit that his odds might well lengthen for any ante-post considerations.)