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2017/18 Betting Thread

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  • Done the sky bet boost 11/2
    Paid for the 50 quid stuck in fruit machine before the game
  • I was sweating on Wolves for a 5 fold. scored in the 81st min..... Barnsley equalised in the 91st min, just as I was about to throw my phone at the cat, Wolves scored again to win it.

    This is why gambling is the biggest drug
  • I was sweating on Wolves for a 5 fold. scored in the 81st min..... Barnsley equalised in the 91st min, just as I was about to throw my phone at the cat, Wolves scored again to win it.

    This is why gambling is the biggest drug
  • clb74 said:

    I was sweating on Wolves for a 5 fold. scored in the 81st min..... Barnsley equalised in the 91st min, just as I was about to throw my phone at the cat, Wolves scored again to win it.

    This is why gambling is the biggest drug
    You can say that again mate.
  • £5 - returns £170
    Everton
    Leeds
    Derby
    Charlton
    QPR
    Mansfield

    £3- Returns £87
    Spurs
    Manure
    Chelsea
    Brentford
    Cardiff

    £2- £81
    Draws
    Burnley / Udders
    Norwich/ Bristol
    Plymouth/ Doncaster

    I won the middle one :) then put £25 on Arsenal to win to nil, Malmo and Real Betis return £135. good couple of days and actually put £100 in bank. got a few today will post later if i get a chance
  • Blinkant said:

    Thanks charlton

    Moral of the story dont bet on Charlton, i try not too :) also the weekend had doubts as no Holmes and as we are Charlton.
  • We don't learn do we? There are hundreds of matches to choose from but still insist on backing our own team so, when they don't win, we're hit in the pocket as well as in the heart!
  • Blackpool, Peterborough & Wigan
    all HT/FT @ just under 25/1
  • £2 on draws - Return: £306
    Brentford v Derby
    Nott F v Fulham
    Donny v Shrews
    Morcambe v Luton

    £2 - £186
    Seville
    Liverpool
    Villa
    Ipswich
    Millwall
    Blackpool
    Bradford
    Wigan

    £15- £138
    City
    Monaco
    Napoli
    Bristol City
    Blackburn

    £3 Team to win to nil- £375
    Villa
    Cardiff
    Ipswich
    Bradford

    Good luck tonight lets be lucky :)
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  • Charlton over 3.5 goals £10 @12/1
    Sky bet boost
    Liverpool ,Manchester city and real Madrid 5/1 £10
  • edited September 2017
    Carlisle
    Southend
    MK ....
    Cardiff
    Blackburn

    Got the MK bit from AFC Wimbledons match program.

    As mentioned the other week, the midweek games seem to throw up a number of surprises.
    Burton to beat Villa at home @16/5 anyone?
  • Bristol C
    Southend
    Wigan
    Charlton Walsall BTTS

    5/1ish
  • Please god no one took my outside bet
  • Villa basically started to get their shit together from the point I stopped backing them
  • edited September 2017
    Bradford busted a pretty decent looking 7 fold of

    Spurs
    Cardiff
    Besiktas
    Lincoln
    Bristol city
    Napoli
    Bradford

    Fuckers.

  • Wigan are gonna screw me. Had a goal disallowed as well
  • Had Charlton and Shrewsbury in a double.
    Cheers Charlton.
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  • .

    Pays for Fleetwood :) nice one
  • I run my own model for the Prem/Champ/Lg1/Lg2 based on shot data. This has it's advantages and disadvantages as any model does but can throw up some value bets throughout the season.

    Still early days in the Premiership but there are some interesting things to note in lower leagues:

    Championship: Got this quite competitive at the top end with Leeds and Cardiff currently top. At the other end things looks very bad for both Bolton and Burton. Bolton are now only 1.44 but can still get 1.91 on Burton if you don't mind taking a short price this far out. Ipswich, despite their start, also don't fare well and could be worth an interest at 11s should they slide down the table.

    League 1: Got Wigan well clear currently and prices of 9/4 look fair to win the League. Rate us about 8th at the moment. Other end of the table doesn't throw up anything of major interest yet.

    League 2: Very competitive at the top but Forest Green look to be struggling to adapt to the step up from non-Leauge. 13/2 with Bet365 to go down looks big (if you can get anything on), with it as short as 11/4 elsewhere. Can get 5s in main high street shops.

    Forest Green are now into 13/8 for relegation from League 2. Still rate Wigan best side in League 1
  • Very interested to understand more about your model @PolzeathNick
  • It is an "Expected Goals Model", which although getting more coverage recently is a notion that has been around since the 90s. In brief each shot in a game has a probability of being scored that you can work out from previous data. For example, say a shot from inside the box has say a 60% probability of being scored, whereas a shot from 25 yards has a 10% chance of going in. If a side has one shot from inside the box, and four from 25 yards in a game their "Expected Goals" is 1 ((0.6 x 1) + (0.1 x 4)).

    I also then use a lot of shot data to rank sides. The most reliable of these over time I find tends to be "shot ratios". For example if a side has 15 shots in a game, and their opposition has only 5, their "shot ratio" is 75% (15/20). Similarly, their opposition has a shot ratio of 25% for that game. You can then aggregate these numbers throughout the season to assess relative dominance in a game. You can also go further and use "shots on target ratio".

    Using this you can see if a team is outperforming their data. The theory then follows that they should revert to average. This doesn't always work, and I lost good money last year taking on Reading as a result. Happily they aren't faring so well this season though, so perhaps they are finding their fortunes reverting to the mean this year.
  • edited September 2017
    Just got bet £25 get £25 through from Bet365 for the Chelsea v Man City game.
  • usual measly fiver for me
  • £5 here too
    Tight gits.
  • £25 on Chelsea
    £25 in play, but haven't a clue, maybe no goalscorer
  • £25 for me. You lot who've only been given a fiver must be kicking yourselves that you haven't lost enough money to qualify for the full amount.
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