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US Open Golf 2019

Was gonna comment in the golf thread but nah, it’s US Open week. I fell asleep near the end last night so I doubt I’ll manage the finish this weekend, I’m going to have to plan some strategic naps.

Apparently it’s been fairly wet at Pebble recently which will help prevent the poa greens bobbling & keep them to 12-ish on the stimpmeter. I am ALWAYS up for carnage at the US Open but I don’t think it’ll get too silly as pampered PGA Tour players continue to whine about it being ‘too hard’. Golf Digest published this recently and it’s 50+ guys moaning about the USGA, to the point they considered a boycott: https://www.golfdigest.com/story/usga-confidential

Yeah boo-hoo, your wedges don’t stop and stick like they do every other week. The Euros come out of that looking better (Fitzpatrick is the one referencing Bryson calling Shinnecock ‘clown golf’). As Nicklaus used to say, if you ever heard someone complain then they were not going to win… And you won’t hear Brooks Koepka moaning this week.

I’ll say DJ to win but I put small sums on Schauffele, Leishman and Webb Simpson.


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Comments

  • McIlroy peaks one week early.....


  • Gonna go for Fowler - about time.
  • Koepka up there again do we reckon?
  • Koepka up there again do we reckon?

    Yeah after T50 yesterday he’s in the usual Koepka  form – didn’t touch a club between the PGA and Canada, annoyed people by saying he was only there for a warmup, then will inevitably go low this week. Other players will whine about conditions & fairness and he’ll just get on with it and Brooks everyone.

     Pebble’s far shorter than Bethpage though so it brings more potential winners into the equation, so his odds are bad. It should be a nice varied leaderboard rather than bomber heavy.

  • Im going for :

    Schauffele

    Matsuyama

    Cantlay

    Bjerreguard

    Small EW- punts

    also following closely Finnau, Garcia & Wallace (auction)

  • Can I just say that I think Apparently it’s been fairly wet at Pebble recently which will help prevent the poa greens bobbling & keep them to 12-ish on the stimpmeter may well be the best sentence ever written on CL.  I have no idea what it means, but I think it's fantastic. 
  • Dechambeau main bet (50/1), and a big, big priced outsider, Justin Harding (250/1)

    I was considering Finnau but his fairways in regulation stats are not good - can get away with that at some events but not the US Open!

  • edited June 11

    Will play long so need to be straight.  It's going to be cold on Sunday, so more Europeans I think will come into it.  (I got 3 right in the Masters finishing top 10 e/w)

    I've gone for on this basis (e/w 1/5th odds top 10 Sky Bet)

    Danny Willet @ 150/1    Has come back into some form recently, but not strung it out for 4 rounds

    Martin Kaymner @ 80/1   Recent resurgence

    Ian Poulter  @ 90/1   Has the accuracy off the tee and short game to contend - probably most consistent form of his life

    Francesco Molinari @ 30/1   His 4th round in The Masters (where I had him) knocked his confidence, but expect him to be up for it.

    Tommy Fleetwood @ 28/1   Has the game for it and contended at The Players.   Expect good things this week with the conditions.


    Too short odds for e/w in my opinion, but think they'll be up there -   Brooks Koepka and Tiger Woods.

    Jordan Spieth has a chance too as he's coming back to form and knocking putts in again.


  • DJ to lay his 2010 demons to bed 
  • Matt Kuchar - only player in top 10 for both fairways hit and greens in regulation.
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  • With no real confidence I've done Spieth to win & Schauffele, Finau, Wallace and a big outsider Chez Reavie (250-1) all ew. Koepka probably the man to beat again.
  • Boring I know but looks to be either D. Johnson or B. Koepka and one at a bigger price B. Snedeker
  • DJ, Fleetwood, Rahm.... in that order 😁
  • Tommy the Hairdo Fleetwood for me,  also like to see Tiger play well. 
  • Other than “he has peaked too early”, no one has his backing.

    Surely Rory is in with a shout ?

    To win, against some of the best by 7 shots Sunday, is some marker to lay down....

    Anyway I have him to win at 12’s.

    My last bet was BFG at 22’s, anytime scorer, what could possibly go wrong ?? 🙄
  • edited June 12

    Koepka is already on form. He's just had a press conference where he says everyone should stop complaining about the US Open being too hard. "If you put it in the fairway you won't have to complain about the rough."



    He's also rightly complained that he's not in Fox's US Open commercials. That is exactly the sort of thing that fires him up. 

    Edit: actually listening to the Shotgun Start (brilliant podcast 3 times a week) he was sent and was talking about a 2 year old advert. Hmm. Either way it helps the chip on his shoulder.

  • Check out this informative assessment of likely winners and form etc;

    https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/us-open-tips-golf/

    Personally, gone large on:
    Shane Lowry: 45-1
    Matt Wallace 66-1
    Phil Mickelson 40-1
    + smaller bets on Molinari, Matsuyama, Rose, Poulter, Fleetwood & Rahm for me.

    All with Paddypower paying up to 10 places and, on the face of it pretty competitive in terms of offered odds when I looked around this morning.
  • Matt Wallace e/w 100-1
  • masicat said:
    Matt Wallace e/w 100-1
    Ive gone for the same. 

    Think Brooks will win again. Seems to be in the same mindset he was in before the USPGA. 
  • I find the odds in golf betting to be very strange. There are about 30 guys in the field who can realistically win whose odds range from laughably low to strangely high (it’s not worth betting on McIlroy or Koepka at their odds but folk like De Chambeau are out at the best part of 50-1) together with about another 30 who are capable of having a once in a lifetime daft week (think Laurie, Hamilton, Curtis etc). It really is a lottery. I’ve ended up doing a whole load of 20p - 50p “for fun” bets on first day top ten finishers just to make watching a little more interesting together with a few e/w bets (top 5 places as the odds were much better) on the likes of Shaufele and Cantlay. I think the winner will come from the top five in the betting. The US Open is probably the hardest major to win so I think the cream will rise to the top. 
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  • I find the odds in golf betting to be very strange. There are about 30 guys in the field who can realistically win whose odds range from laughably low to strangely high (it’s not worth betting on McIlroy or Koepka at their odds but folk like De Chambeau are out at the best part of 50-1) together with about another 30 who are capable of having a once in a lifetime daft week (think Laurie, Hamilton, Curtis etc). It really is a lottery. I’ve ended up doing a whole load of 20p - 50p “for fun” bets on first day top ten finishers just to make watching a little more interesting together with a few e/w bets (top 5 places as the odds were much better) on the likes of Shaufele and Cantlay. I think the winner will come from the top five in the betting. The US Open is probably the hardest major to win so I think the cream will rise to the top. 

    That can work the other way leading to a shock winner.

    What the stats do confirm is that the winner is very likely to be an American - 84 out of the 118 winners have been from the USA.

    On your general point - the book pre-tournament in golf is a little bit skewed and gets much stronger (as in making more sense) during or immediately after the first round.

  • I find the odds in golf betting to be very strange. There are about 30 guys in the field who can realistically win whose odds range from laughably low to strangely high (it’s not worth betting on McIlroy or Koepka at their odds but folk like De Chambeau are out at the best part of 50-1) together with about another 30 who are capable of having a once in a lifetime daft week (think Laurie, Hamilton, Curtis etc). It really is a lottery. I’ve ended up doing a whole load of 20p - 50p “for fun” bets on first day top ten finishers just to make watching a little more interesting together with a few e/w bets (top 5 places as the odds were much better) on the likes of Shaufele and Cantlay. I think the winner will come from the top five in the betting. The US Open is probably the hardest major to win so I think the cream will rise to the top. 
    Which is why there are not 30 people that could win.  The value is in backing a slightly longer odds player who is straight off the tee and has a good short game so won't bogey many and get them on each way. 
  • McIlroy starts with a bogey on ten.  Mind you he won’t be the only one to do that today. 
  • After that initial hole, finished 3 under.

    He will be very happy with that - started off badly in his last couple of Majors.

    Long way to go ....
  • I know I keep banging on about this but Koepka constantly gobbing is disgusting and the camera seems to delight in focussing on him producing a great big one in glorious hi def. wish someone would have a word with him about it. 
  • Koepka already one shot off the leaders after only six holes.
  • Koepka already one shot off the leaders after only six holes.
    Yes it looked like another procession but he actually dropped a few shots. Tiger has been amazing, wayward off tee and fairway but his short game has kept him in contention. He has no right to finish under par but probably will due to his genius. 
     Rose finishing strongly. 
  • Way to go Rosey!

    Justin birdies the 18th to take the lead on his own after the 1st round at -6. 
    Fantastic effort from Rose who birdies the last 3 holes. Wonderful first round of golf all round at an amazing course. Woods indeed does finish under par at -1. He is not out of this, not by any stretch of the imagination. 
    Absolutely love the timing of this. West Coast America being 8 hours behind us makes it perfect TV for us night birds. 
  • i backed pre tee 

    rahm 10 places 22/1
    fowler 10 places 22/1
    fleetwood 10 places 25/1
  • Also got fowler e/w @22/1 and Poulter e/w @90/1
    Wish i had done Rose now
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