@bobmunro i think it was 365 the last couple of years that refunded the e/w parts of bets (as cash), are they likely to do this again?
I'm not sure but would expect the same offer for bets placed before a certain time on the day.
Holding back for this offer.
It's a cracking offer. I've cashed out my abolitionist bets and lumped on Lincoln City instead. Will keep an eye out for that one as I slavishly follow Peanuts again this year
Not a surprise but going on the GN course is currently Good To Soft (Good places). Mildmay & Hurdle courses both Good (GS). They're watering all 3 courses. Nothing more than occasional showers in the forecast. Can't see it being anything other than (officially) GS for the GN - safe but probably riding on the quicker side. We'll find out on Thursday in the Foxhunters. Update (post latest scratchings) coming shortly.
One known-unknown now known - BDM scratched. So, assuming
Anibale Fly is declared as seemingly intended next Thursday, he’ll carry top weight
of 11.10 for the GN and weights will rise generally by 4lbs.
The mist is lifting a little on the other known-unknown.
Watering already occurring, the going on the GN course is currently reported
Good-to-Soft (Good places) – a fair bit of Good according to Turftrax. More
unsettled weather forecast for the week, with daily showers but modest amounts of
rain. Come Saturday, it’s most likely still to be Good-to-Soft but possibly
riding on the quicker side of GS – we’ll get an idea from the time of
Thursday’s Foxhunters.
Injury sadly means that, together with BDM, Alpha Des
Obeaux, Blaklion, Daklondike, Abolitionist and Baie Des Iles are definitely
scratched. Mala Beach and Shattered Love are both reported doubtful.
That means that Vintage Clouds (definitely) and General
Principle (probably) will make the cut. Allowing for a few more to drop by the
wayside, especially if Elliott has his 10 GN runners but holds some back for
Fairyhouse 2 weeks later (Dounikos was said to be targeted at Fairyhouse when
the Irish weights were unveiled recently) and if the ground comes up on the
quicker side of GS (casting a doubt over Yala Enki’s and Ms Parfois’
participation), it’s distinctly possible that the cut comes a nadge below the
OR143 I’d originally expected. The now-best-rated of those allotted OR142 may get
a run – and top of that list is one that interests me a lot.
So, running the slide-rule over all those down to and
including OR142, on the basis of 4lbs higher weights and going that is
Good-to-Soft or better, my model rates the following 5 as having GN-winning
stat profiles (prices are 6 places 1/5 odds):
·
Tiger
Roll – 7/2
·
Ramses De
Teillee – 33/1
·
General
Principle – 40/1
·
Vintage
Clouds - 14/1
·
Anibale
Fly – 11/1
If it were to come up Softer than GS, Vintage Clouds would drop
to Strong Place Potential but Ms Parfois, Rathvinden and Folsom Blue would
enter the equation with winning-ratings.
Strong Place Potential on GS or better (in card order) are:
Ballyoptic, Rathvinden, Mall Dini, Walk In The Mill and Joe Farrell.
Given that, purely due to prices, I won’t be including
either Tiger Roll or Anibale Fly, I’m going to select one of the 5 “next best” that I think has most potential to surprise to the upside, particularly with possibly quicker than GS going
in mind, to add to my team of Ramses De
Teillee, General Principle (both of whom would prefer genuine cut) and Vintage Clouds, namely:
JOE FARRELL -
40/1 (5 places ¼ odds NRNB – must
be backed NRNB as needs 6+ more to come out)
·
Won a fast-pace 4m Scottish GN last April on Good
ground. He’d re-oppose Ballyoptic [2nd] and Vintage Clouds [3rd]
on near-level terms based on that race. Like Ballyoptic, he’s a second season
chaser but, though a 10yo, appears more progressive and certainly in better form.
·
Had a delayed start to this season because of a
niggle but ran a very nice final prep over 26f (close 2nd with
top-weight) at Newbury a week ago, recording a career-high RPR154. He’s now
3lbs “well-in” off OR142, according to his revised mark and will carry just 10.02 after the 4lb weight-rise.
·
Stamina and love of a sound surface evident in
his ScotNat win and, strongly, in his pedigree – by Presenting (renowned for siring top-of-the-ground lovers and with GN winner/near-misser,
Ballabriggs and Pleasant Company, among his progeny) and dam-sire Old
Vic (sired 4 good-ground GN winners/near-missers: Comply Or Die, Don’t Push It, Black
Apalachi and Sunnyhillboy).
·
8 chases – all 3 of his wins/near-misses have come
(from 3 runs) in the Spring (mid-Mar to end Apr)
·
Yet to face GN fences but no mishaps and 100%
completion in 13 runs over obstacles. Has a slight tendency to jump right but all
3 chase wins/near-misses were at left-handed tracks, Newbury and Ayr – both also
stiff-jumping.
·
2 runs in the season not ideal but both being
post weights-announcement – the last a fine run 13 days prior – is no problem stats-wise.
·
Trained by Rebecca Curtis, whose yard can blow
hot and cold but is currently 100% Running-to-Form.
My only little bit of insider knowledge from family members and trusted experts on here have both mentioned Vintage Clouds now so thats where my money may be going
Elliott said to be aiming to run as many as 12. Alpha Des Obeaux, The Storeyteller and Shattered Love definitely won't run and Mala Beach will only run if there's meaningful rain.
Place Propositions that are Overlooked and Overpriced
Assuming the going is Good~GS, aside
from the 5 with winning ratings and 5 with Strong Place Potential, my model
rates another 25% of the field (about the usual %) as having stat-profiles
consistent with “minor place potential”.
Among them are some highly fancied
runners (e.g. Lake View Lad, Rock The Kasbah and Jury Duty) but they also include
1, possibly 2, available at a very interesting e/w price.
There are reasons they’re
unfancied, naturally, but also reasons (I believe) why they may put in a big
run in the conditions.
I’ll write up the other one later
in the week – needs some more thought and I expect him to drift further before
Saturday as money comes for others. Also, if I mention him this morning, you’d likely
write this off as an April Fool.
For the moment:
Singlefarmpayment - 66/1 - 6 places (Betfair) – not NRNB
so, if backing, wait for Confirmations later today
Crazy name, crazy horse - and the chief reason SFP is written off by the
market for Saturday is that he’s considered to be a “Cheltenham-only” horse and,
even when running there, sufficiently bonkers to not want to put his head in
front to win. Thus, the long run-in for the GN is thought to preclude him.
But on the likely decent ground, in my opinion, 66/1 for 6 places makes
for a very interesting e/w punt. Here’s why:
The better the ground the better his form. Removing
runs on Soft or Hvy his chase form reads: 32122F5242. The last 5 of those were,
in chronological order:
- Fell 3 out
in the 2017 Hennessy when making good headway into 6th, just 4L
adrift (OR147 that day). Notably, Newbury is a flat, LH, galloping and stiff-jumping
track – sounds familiar? Excl a BD, that’s his only incomplete in 14 chases.
- 5 (also off OR147) was over
3m at Ascot, behind Gold Present and Frodon (9L, giving Frodon 1lb – Frodon’s
mark is now +18lbs). Walk In The Mill was 3rd that day, 8L ahead of
and receiving 8lbs from SFP (SFP gives him 2lbs on Sat but has form over 3.5m)
- 2 (SHd,
staying on but guilty of not putting his head in front) over 26f at Cheltenham
- 4 [6.5L] in
the 3.5m Gr3 chase at Cheltenham last Nov (the race in which Don’t Push It was close 2nd before
his 2010 GN win), won by Rock The Kasbah (re-opposes on Sat at level terms, based
on that run)
- 2 (Hd) in the 3.25m Gr3 chase at Cheltenham in Dec (the race won by Mon Mome
before his 2009 GN win) – Rock The Kasbah well behind off same mark as Saturday.
SFP will carry 10.06 on Saturday (OR146 – unchanged
this season). His last 5 chases on Good ground have all posted RPRs in career-high
range 150-152
Yet to run at Aintree but a Cheltenham-only horse? Well, he clearly likes Prestbury Park but he’s won or near-missed Under Rules also at Southwell, Ascot, Worcester and Chepstow and, as noted, handled Newbury well enough.
Stamina evident in his staying-on runs up Cheltenham’s hill over 26~28f but also in his pedigree: by Milan (sire of good-ground GN winner One For Arthur and GN 3rd Double Seven). On the dam-side (considered more important for stamina), he has 2 bloodlines that are often observed in GN winners and frame-makers down the years (Busted [sire] and Camenae [dam], both 5 generations back - never too ancient for pedigree purposes)
9 yo, with 3 runs in the season, the last 25 days
prior is fine stat-wise.
Tom George trains – another yard that can blow hot
and cold but is currently 61% Running-to-Form
69 remain in after Confirmations. Joe Farrell #42 - needs 2 to come out by Friday morning. Elliott has 13 in the line up right now (#40 being Bless The Wings). They include Mala Beach who won't run without rain - nothing material forecast. Valtor (Henderson - leaning towards GN), Warriors Tale (Nicholls), Ultragold (Tizzard - come on Colin, he won't get 34f even on decent ground) and General Principle (Elliott - definite GN runner) all have entries for Friday's Topham. JF may end up R1.
EDIT Cock up by someone - Captain Redbeard is #40, Bless The Wings #41
Comments
i think it was 365 the last couple of years that refunded the e/w parts of bets (as cash), are they likely to do this again?
Will keep an eye out for that one as I slavishly follow Peanuts again this year
They're watering all 3 courses. Nothing more than occasional showers in the forecast. Can't see it being anything other than (officially) GS for the GN - safe but probably riding on the quicker side. We'll find out on Thursday in the Foxhunters.
Update (post latest scratchings) coming shortly.
Morning Folks,
One known-unknown now known - BDM scratched. So, assuming Anibale Fly is declared as seemingly intended next Thursday, he’ll carry top weight of 11.10 for the GN and weights will rise generally by 4lbs.
The mist is lifting a little on the other known-unknown. Watering already occurring, the going on the GN course is currently reported Good-to-Soft (Good places) – a fair bit of Good according to Turftrax. More unsettled weather forecast for the week, with daily showers but modest amounts of rain. Come Saturday, it’s most likely still to be Good-to-Soft but possibly riding on the quicker side of GS – we’ll get an idea from the time of Thursday’s Foxhunters.
Injury sadly means that, together with BDM, Alpha Des Obeaux, Blaklion, Daklondike, Abolitionist and Baie Des Iles are definitely scratched. Mala Beach and Shattered Love are both reported doubtful.
That means that Vintage Clouds (definitely) and General Principle (probably) will make the cut. Allowing for a few more to drop by the wayside, especially if Elliott has his 10 GN runners but holds some back for Fairyhouse 2 weeks later (Dounikos was said to be targeted at Fairyhouse when the Irish weights were unveiled recently) and if the ground comes up on the quicker side of GS (casting a doubt over Yala Enki’s and Ms Parfois’ participation), it’s distinctly possible that the cut comes a nadge below the OR143 I’d originally expected. The now-best-rated of those allotted OR142 may get a run – and top of that list is one that interests me a lot.
So, running the slide-rule over all those down to and including OR142, on the basis of 4lbs higher weights and going that is Good-to-Soft or better, my model rates the following 5 as having GN-winning stat profiles (prices are 6 places 1/5 odds):
· Tiger Roll – 7/2
· Ramses De Teillee – 33/1
· General Principle – 40/1
· Vintage Clouds - 14/1
· Anibale Fly – 11/1
If it were to come up Softer than GS, Vintage Clouds would drop to Strong Place Potential but Ms Parfois, Rathvinden and Folsom Blue would enter the equation with winning-ratings.
Strong Place Potential on GS or better (in card order) are: Ballyoptic, Rathvinden, Mall Dini, Walk In The Mill and Joe Farrell.
Given that, purely due to prices, I won’t be including either Tiger Roll or Anibale Fly, I’m going to select one of the 5 “next best” that I think has most potential to surprise to the upside, particularly with possibly quicker than GS going in mind, to add to my team of Ramses De Teillee, General Principle (both of whom would prefer genuine cut) and Vintage Clouds, namely:
JOE FARRELL - 40/1 (5 places ¼ odds NRNB – must be backed NRNB as needs 6+ more to come out)
· Won a fast-pace 4m Scottish GN last April on Good ground. He’d re-oppose Ballyoptic [2nd] and Vintage Clouds [3rd] on near-level terms based on that race. Like Ballyoptic, he’s a second season chaser but, though a 10yo, appears more progressive and certainly in better form.
· Had a delayed start to this season because of a niggle but ran a very nice final prep over 26f (close 2nd with top-weight) at Newbury a week ago, recording a career-high RPR154. He’s now 3lbs “well-in” off OR142, according to his revised mark and will carry just 10.02 after the 4lb weight-rise.
· Stamina and love of a sound surface evident in his ScotNat win and, strongly, in his pedigree – by Presenting (renowned for siring top-of-the-ground lovers and with GN winner/near-misser, Ballabriggs and Pleasant Company, among his progeny) and dam-sire Old Vic (sired 4 good-ground GN winners/near-missers: Comply Or Die, Don’t Push It, Black Apalachi and Sunnyhillboy).
· 8 chases – all 3 of his wins/near-misses have come (from 3 runs) in the Spring (mid-Mar to end Apr)
· Yet to face GN fences but no mishaps and 100% completion in 13 runs over obstacles. Has a slight tendency to jump right but all 3 chase wins/near-misses were at left-handed tracks, Newbury and Ayr – both also stiff-jumping.
· 2 runs in the season not ideal but both being post weights-announcement – the last a fine run 13 days prior – is no problem stats-wise.
· Trained by Rebecca Curtis, whose yard can blow hot and cold but is currently 100% Running-to-Form.
Roll on Saturday!
Alpha Des Obeaux, The Storeyteller and Shattered Love definitely won't run and Mala Beach will only run if there's meaningful rain.
mall dini @ 33/1
ramses de telle @ 25/1
lakeview lad @ 20/1
step back @ 20/1
vintage clouds @ 12/1
all ew
on the nose
anniabale fly 11/1
tiger roll would be immense if it wins but just far too short in a race where so much could go wrong as always hope they all get home safely.
great 3 days racing having done it the last 2 years giving this years a miss.
Place Propositions that are Overlooked and Overpriced
Assuming the going is Good~GS, aside from the 5 with winning ratings and 5 with Strong Place Potential, my model rates another 25% of the field (about the usual %) as having stat-profiles consistent with “minor place potential”.
Among them are some highly fancied runners (e.g. Lake View Lad, Rock The Kasbah and Jury Duty) but they also include 1, possibly 2, available at a very interesting e/w price.
There are reasons they’re unfancied, naturally, but also reasons (I believe) why they may put in a big run in the conditions.
I’ll write up the other one later in the week – needs some more thought and I expect him to drift further before Saturday as money comes for others. Also, if I mention him this morning, you’d likely write this off as an April Fool.
For the moment:Singlefarmpayment - 66/1 - 6 places (Betfair) – not NRNB so, if backing, wait for Confirmations later today
Crazy name, crazy horse - and the chief reason SFP is written off by the market for Saturday is that he’s considered to be a “Cheltenham-only” horse and, even when running there, sufficiently bonkers to not want to put his head in front to win. Thus, the long run-in for the GN is thought to preclude him.
But on the likely decent ground, in my opinion, 66/1 for 6 places makes for a very interesting e/w punt. Here’s why:
- Fell 3 out in the 2017 Hennessy when making good headway into 6th, just 4L adrift (OR147 that day). Notably, Newbury is a flat, LH, galloping and stiff-jumping track – sounds familiar? Excl a BD, that’s his only incomplete in 14 chases.
- 5 (also off OR147) was over 3m at Ascot, behind Gold Present and Frodon (9L, giving Frodon 1lb – Frodon’s mark is now +18lbs). Walk In The Mill was 3rd that day, 8L ahead of and receiving 8lbs from SFP (SFP gives him 2lbs on Sat but has form over 3.5m)
- 2 (SHd, staying on but guilty of not putting his head in front) over 26f at Cheltenham
- 4 [6.5L] in the 3.5m Gr3 chase at Cheltenham last Nov (the race in which Don’t Push It was close 2nd before his 2010 GN win), won by Rock The Kasbah (re-opposes on Sat at level terms, based on that run)
- 2 (Hd) in the 3.25m Gr3 chase at Cheltenham in Dec (the race won by Mon Mome before his 2009 GN win) – Rock The Kasbah well behind off same mark as Saturday.
Looks like Joe Farrell potentially last in going through it this morning
And now Ms Parfois is out - another NRNB and no refund/cash out offer either
Joe Farrell #42 - needs 2 to come out by Friday morning.
Elliott has 13 in the line up right now (#40 being Bless The Wings). They include Mala Beach who won't run without rain - nothing material forecast.
Valtor (Henderson - leaning towards GN), Warriors Tale (Nicholls), Ultragold (Tizzard - come on Colin, he won't get 34f even on decent ground) and General Principle (Elliott - definite GN runner) all have entries for Friday's Topham.
JF may end up R1.
EDIT Cock up by someone - Captain Redbeard is #40, Bless The Wings #41