I hope Bless The Wings is retired, first and foremost - he's a lovely horse but clearly too long in the tooth now.
Vintage Clouds looks a good National prospect, and lots of bookies have shortened accordingly. The 14/1 with Bob's lot (1/4 1-5) is the best of what's out there.
Tiger Roll is now miles too short so any win interest I'll have in him would be on the day, when he hopefully/likely drifts.
Of the other horses shorter than 20/1, Anibale Fly would be true each-way scumbaggery with the current place terms (and thus backable despite the relatively small returns you'd get from a place), while Rathvinden is simply too short.
Given cheltenham and the performance in the grade 2 hurdle to me that makes an improving (amazing given his age) Tiger Roll now a mid 160 handicapper and well in.
Finding this a really difficult race to get a handle on this year.
Walk In The Mill provided some recompense when bolting up in the Becher (was on for a good payout in the National last year before he went lame in the morning) but he's been well found now.
I had the pleasure of talking to Enda Bolger at Cheltenham who is pretty adamant that Tiger Roll will win this and the next one but he's a scandalously short price to do so now.
The one I keep coming back to is Vintage Clouds who was 2nd in the Ultima last week, and has gone up today to 149 but will get to run off 144 in this (if he gets in!). I've never been a huge fan of his until last week when I've rated him in the mid-150s and it could be that the wind op he's had prior to Cheltenham has unlocked the key to him. I have some reservations about him seeing out the trip fully on pedigree but he was a close up 3rd in the Scottish National so I am being picky! He is towards the head of the market though already so hardly anything ground breaking.
IF it came up a bog (who knows these days) I wouldn't mind getting Monbeg Notorious onside early. He really is a boat but went off 8/1 for the Irish National last year and gets to run off 152. His pedigree is just stamina stamina stamina, and his campaign looks to have been a nice softly softly build up approach to something, improving with each run. He won a Thyestes by 11L on heavy ground as a 7yo and I don't want to miss the big day whenever it comes (maybe Irish version tbf)
Has an obvious chance, but agree you're a braver man than me to pile into a horse in a 40 runner handicap worth £1m at that sort of price!
Looks like they've taken Jarob as the horse to rate the X-Country through to get Tiger Roll to 167. I don't assess those races as there isn't anything to compare them to on the card, so there is a degree of "finger in the air" involved with that figure you'd think.
What he will provide though will be some savage each way opportunities. Given that William Hill and Paddy Power seem to be in their own war to give the most place concessions each weekend I'd imagine we could see something crazy - 10 places I think has been done before? Certainly seen 8. Wouldn't put it past Hills to do 12 potentially. With Tiger Roll set to go off a short price fav their place book will be severely overbroke. Will be unleashing hell accordingly
I believe he's chewing the fat at the minute and will be adding a few thoughts in the next couple of days.
But to be fair, according to Peanuts on the 2018 GN thread, PolzeathNick's horse ratings are "so astute that he should be the next handicapper" so his insights provide a lovely methadone hit to tide us over until we can inject some of Peanuts' smack.
I believe he's chewing the fat at the minute and will be adding a few thoughts in the next couple of days.
But to be fair, according to Peanuts on the 2018 GN thread, PolzeathNick's horse ratings are "so astute that he should be the next handicapper" so his insights provide a lovely methadone hit to tide us over until we can inject some of Peanuts' smack.
16 scratched today. Current #40 is Up For Review. Sounds like they are going to run Bristol, so weights set to stay as they are. Would say at worst they'll go up 4lbs with Anibale Fly a likely runner after is Gold Cup run.
Would say you'll need to be 142 or higher to get in looking at it and the plethora of Irish entries.
My current shortlist (Tiger Roll discounted on price grounds)
Yala Enki Blaklion Lake View Lad Dounikos Jury Duty Monbeg Notorious Mall Dini Vintage Clouds Walk In The Mill The Young Master
No way am I getting involved though until after decs and extra places come into play and know the likely state of ground etc... Race complexion could change a load with Bristol De Mai coming out, and Tiger Roll not running for whatever reason.
2nd forfeit stage yesterday and defections, including Elegant Escape, just published. Bristol De Mai remains in but, if heading to
Aintree, could still go for The Bowl. That might be the better choice with Anibale
Fly at a significant advantage at the weights on paper.
BDM's possible participation remains a big variable for GN weights and ratings but time and tide wait for no man and so, with essentially
all preps run, below are my model's top-rated 2019 GN entries, after running
the slide rule over all those down to OR143 - I doubt the cut will come below that.
They're ranked below in
order of strength of rating, but all those listed have ratings in the range
inhabited by the 20 highest-rated of the 22 GN winners and near-missers
(<5L) since 2005, as back-tested by my Mark II model. FYI, the 2 lowest-rated
former winners/near-missers (both in the same race, which had only 2 runners with
"winning" ratings, both of which ran well but encountered misfortune)
were one-notch below this range, normally considered Strong Place Potential.
An important point about a model is that it is, of course, totally objective. Much as I might like it to whittle the field
down for me to just 4, all at tasty e/w odds, and rule out those at the head of the market, it simply tells it as it sees it
- as it must if it's to be of any value over time. As will be seen, unfortunately,
this year it’s largely (though not totally) seeing things as the market is.
In the past it’s identified 3~6 each year with
winning profiles on the specific ground. Last year, on Heavy, it identified 7 and these
turned out to include 1st, 3rd and 5th home. However, with that many on the
shortlist, sadly, my nose had to come into play and, as sure as
eggs is eggs, I gave the winner the swerve and cashed out on 3rd placed Bless
The Wings.
The model had done a decent job but I failed to back the correct perm from its shortlist. That said, as noted, Pleasant Company
was the first "stat-outlier" to near-miss in 12 years and prompted my
return to the drawing board and construction of Mark II.
I'd hoped the new model might deliver a
shortlist this year that could be backed in its entirety, without the need for
my picking and choosing but that’s unlikely, especially if BDM
runs. Indeed, from OR and my model's perspectives, it's shaping up to be one of the highest quality and most
competitive GNs for years:
·
BDM would be the highest (uncompressed) Officially Rated GN runner (now
OR172) since Master Oats in 1997.
·
Even with 4lbs OR compression for the race, his presence would keep the absolute
weights at levels that elevate the stat-ratings of several from "strong
place potential" to "winning" calibre, depending on the going.
· Regardless of his presence, the model's 2 highest-rated runners have “top-quartile” ratings
(i.e. in the top 25% of the ratings-range of former winners and near-missers
since 2005).
That said, as a salutary reminder, in 2012 my old
model rated a runner with the strongest GN stat-profile of any runner since
1988. Desperately sadly, that horse (Synchronised) never came home. The model
wasn't necessarily wrong but it's not a crystal ball. It's simply a tool
designed to improve betting %s over time and, despite my occasional cock-ups in
translating it to a betting slip, it's served me well down the years.
So, to business:
With 2 key “known unknowns”, the ratings are in the
context of 4 alternative scenarios. Despite having 2 stand-out candidates, given the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune in a typical GN but also given the number of winning calibre runners identified by the model, the winner should be one of, but could be any of, those in the relevant list. But, if it were to prove perfectly accurate, either a 45 or a 79-year old trend would be broken on 6 April. If not, maybe we'll have to settle for breaking a 68-year old one – for the Ladies).
Odds are current best price for NRNB 5 places (1/4 or 1/5 odds) [please bear
in mind that some may not line up]
#3 General Principle, Ms Parfois (25/1), Anibale Fly
#6 Abolitionist, Rathvinden (12/1), Pleasant
Company (33/1), Folsom Blue (40/1)
C. BDM runs / GS or better:
#1 Ramses De Teillee, Tiger Roll
#3 Anibale Fly
#4 General Principle, Abolitionist, Vintage Clouds, Rathvinden, Pleasant
Company
D. BDM runs / Softer than GS:
#1 Ramses De Teillee, Tiger Roll
#3 Anibale Fly
#4 General Principle, Ms Parfois, Pleasant Company, Rathvinden
#8 Abolitionist, Folsom Blue
One notch below these in the ratings are those that could run a huge
race (depending on weight and underhoof conditions) but are considered Place
Potential at best: Yala Enki (if softer than GS, 66/1), Mall Dini
(25/1), Walk In The Mill (33/1).
How am I translating this to my betting slip?......
At the e/w prices (and accepting that I may just
have to cheer on Tiger Roll as winner without my shilling aboard), my betting slip
will include:
Ramses
De Teillee (already backed)
General
Principle (already backed)
Ms
Parfois (if softer than GS)
Vintage
Clouds (if GS or better)
and
ANOther TBD - maybe a reload on Abolitionist
Of
course, it's your call entirely whether to take any notice of my model's
output and, if so, how. Please only
bet what you can afford never to see again.
But why Ms Parfois (if softer than GS) and Vintage Clouds (if GS
or better) and why prefer them to Anibale Fly, who’s higher-rated if BDM runs and the same if he doesn't, regardless of going?
Last question first, on paper Anibale Fly’s held (comfortably)
at the weights by Tiger Roll and, at the prices, I’d rather look down the card
to lightly-weighted GN debutants whose profiles look tailor-made for the race, given their ground.
MS PARFOIS
·
Tough mare with abundant stamina – close 2nd
to Rathvinden in the 4m Novice Chase at the Festival last year on testing
ground. They re-oppose on near-identical terms.
·
But Ms P has proven it over further still when a
not-stopping 2nd (3L) with 11.04 in Saturday’s Midlands National
over 34f - the longest trip in the calendar bar the Big One – on Heavy.
·
It may be said that the GN comes too soon, just
21 days after such a tough race but her sequence of runs last year read 3111222
(the last 6 on Soft) and came at an average 24-day gap, with just 5 days
between 2 of the wins. She tends to take her races well but, in any event, has
had a much lighter campaign this season – 2 runs. First of the season was a disappointing 6th in the
Hennessy in December, after noticeably sweating up prior
to the race, but she did likewise on debut the previous season. Handled the hullabaloo of Cheltenham and the GN meeting last season well enough and won't be "fresh".
·
She’ll be 7lbs “well-in” as a result of her
Midlands National run and will carry a very appealing 10.02 (or 10.06 if BDM is
scratched). There are not many, still in the early stages of their chasing
career, that line up in a GN with such a low absolute weight and that have
Grade 1 form - close 2nd in the 25f Novice Chase at last year's GN meeting, 4 weeks after the Festival.
·
Made frame in 78% of chases (5 wins/near-misses
in 8 at 3m+).
·
Never faced the GN fences but 100% completions
to date in 15 runs over obstacles
·
Would want meaningful cut (GS[Sft] or softer)
for her best chance and might conceivably not run if ground is too quick.
·
No mare has won the GN since Nickel Coin in 1951
but harder for them these days to make the GN line-up. Prior to weights’
compression, Auntie Dot (1991), Ebony Jane (1994, 5 days after placing in the
Irish GN) and Dubacilla (1995) all made the first 4 in the GN.
·
Races prominently – should minimise traffic
problems.
VINTAGE CLOUDS
·
From GN-winning yard (Sue Smith), VC was very
unfortunate to miss lining up last year, though maybe conditions wouldn’t have
best suited him.
· Needs 5 to come out to make the cut this time - should be OK but bear in mind Elliot intends to run a cavalry division. If VC lines up, he’ll be 5lbs “well-in” after his staying-on close 2nd
in the Ultima Chase at The Festival – significantly, his first run after a wind
op.
·
He’ll carry just 10.00 (in the handicap) or
10.04 if BDM comes out.
·
His major stat-plus on form is identical to that
of his stable’s GN winner (Auroras Encore) – a near-miss (4L 3rd) in
the Scottish GN a year ago - like AE’s, run at a relentless gallop and clocking
a fast time on Good ground. Though VC certainly has decent form on Soft, he
seems to jump with more fluency on a sounder surface.
·
His stamina was evident in his dogged,
staying-on 16.5L 4th with 11.01 in the 2017 Welsh GN on Heavy but so
too was that lack of jumping fluency which, together with some bad luck, cost
him his chance.
·
Yet to face the GN fences and has 2 Fs on his record,
though the last was 2 years ago (don't be totally put off by Fs and URs - Rough Quest had a shed-load of them but won over the bigger version of the fences in 1996)
·
Made the frame in 75% of 16 chases.
·
3 runs in the season, the last 25 days prior –
in the sweet spot stats-wise
Extended weather forecast for Aintree shows it dry for the
rest of March and moderate rain before and during the GN meeting. Given the policy to water to ensure Official Going no quicker
than GS (though official Good-to-Soft for GN-course seems to have particular latitude), it
could go either way. But at this point it looks very unlikely to be testing, as it was last year.
Interesting angle with Ramses Des Teillee. This is the one race of the year where I think stats are really valid, but their use has been diminished somewhat I think with the changes in the race.
Think that's readily visible in the "age stat". Whilst Amberleigh House won this as a 12yo in 2004, and Pineau De Re completed a hat-trick of 11yo winners in 2014. Three of the last four have been eight year olds though.
David Pipe though....
Plenty of water to go under the bridge I feel for this race!
Fwiw I just ran Ramses Des Teillee through my algo that is designed to isolate optimum conditions for a horse.
After first run of season, over fences, in double figure fields away from Cheltenham his form reads
1122
With his only defeats a close defeat in Welsh National that he arguably would've won with a better jump, and a close defeat in the National Trial at Haydock.
Looks like he ticks every box bar the age stat, but if you delve back into the history of the race plenty of younger horses have won it!
Fwiw I just ran Ramses Des Teillee through my algo that is designed to isolate optimum conditions for a horse.
After first run of season, over fences, in double figure fields away from Cheltenham his form reads
1122
With his only defeats a close defeat in Welsh National that he arguably would've won with a better jump, and a close defeat in the National Trial at Haydock.
Looks like he ticks every box bar the age stat, but if you delve back into the history of the race plenty of younger horses have won it!
I did a piece on 7 yos a page or so back when I first tipped him @PolzeathNick To cut to the chase, considering the stats of the 31 7yos to have run in GNs since 2005, 84% of them stood no chance on those stats, irrespective of age. 1 had winning-calibre stats - Double Honour, 2005 who was going well and 2nd when UR at 21st. 4 others had minor place-calibre stats - incl. both Big Fella Thanks in 2009 and Cause of Causes in 2015, who both ran more or less in line. In other words, 7 yos have certainly underperformed their representation but not necessarily their actual potential. Hence I'm happy to go with RDT, who has stats way superior to any other 7 yo GN runner in recent times. And, of course, recent greater success of 8 yos (3 of last 4 winners) may suggest that the post-2012 race changes have levelled the playing field a bit age-wise.
EDIT - Pipe confirmed today: "Ramses will run, all being well…We were
not sure if he was going to get the trip in the Welsh National, but he got it
well and he ran very well at Haydock. While he's only seven, he's been to the
Festival, the Welsh National and the Grand National Trial and doesn't seem to
be fazed by anything. I
don't know if he'll get the Grand National trip, but you can say that about a
lot of horses. He's not schooled over the National fences yet, we'll school him
next week over them"
Yes found the post....that's what sparked me to delve into it more.
I think there have been 171 runnings of the race - it's actually had five year old and six year old winners back in the day, but the minimum age now is seven.
I went back through the recent renewals (before I got bored!) and of the last 27 seven year olds their average SP has been 56/1. At SP you'd expect 0.836 winners, and given the overround can guarantee that should actually be a fair chunk lower. So definitely weight behind the argument that dismissing seven year olds out of hand isn't the way forward.
Actually, the more I look at him the more I like him. I do like a good stat-buster! He ticks every other box for me - won in big fields, proven stamina by winning over long trip or placed in national, right experience etc....
The mark of 149 looks workable too. He actually got put up to 154 after Haydock....
Re Vintage Clouds, Sue Smith reports: “He’s in very good form and he’s come out of the Cheltenham race really well. I’m very pleased with him – but he also appears to be very pleased with himself. We are easing him back into his work. He is very fit and ready to roll.”
And his regular pilot, Danny Cook: “Everyone thinks he is a slogger, but I think he needs better ground because it helps him travel through his races. If he gets round, he will be placed.”
Anyway, I'm going to revisit one of my standbys from last year, and that is Baie Des Iles (50/1, 1/4 1-5 NRNB with Bet365, cheers Bob!).
With an OR of 142 it's touch and go/quite unlikely she'll make the cut, but when it's NRNB at such a big price I'm happy to invest.
She's now 8 years old (as PolzeathNick said, 3 of the last 4 winners were this age); but still a mare so we need a trend-bust in one regard.
Was tanking along like a good thing at Down Royal before falling 3 out, ahead of some good horses such as Jury Duty, Mala Beach and Don Poli, and the RPR for the winner there was a big 160.
She was tired last GN, of course, which isn't ideal, but suffered a massive hampering at the 23rd and was never on terms thereafter (what could have been if that hadn't occurred!).
Collected a lovely prize at Auteuil over an albeit strange 2m6f, but that was under Townend who was also on board at Down Royal.
These are all scattergun thoughts and probably reflect my tiredness, but if she gets in and if she runs (depends a lot on what Ross Sullivan does), then I'd take a very close interest.
And re Ms Parfois, from today's Racing Post, trainer Anthony Honeyball's update, echoing comments of @killer kish who knows the yard very well.
"We were delighted with her in the Midlands Grand National..... I was very disappointed to get beat but it was pleasing that she was back to her best.
She seems to have come out of it all right, so now the only question mark is the ground and that's the only reason why she wouldn't run.
......She travels fine and is very assured at her fences...... She's nearly the perfect horse – maybe she just lacks that little bit of pace at the end of the race but she has built up a good CV."
One concern I've got about Ramses De Teillee are if he isn't a bit slow for this? Tend to need to travel in this race and in back of my mind got a bit of a worry about that. Food for thought anyway
I do really like Vintage Clouds, the case emphasised by @PeanutsMolloy .... but the other one steadily making his way towards the top of my list is JURY DUTY.
He fits all the key stats being an 8yo, with 11 runs over fences, running off a nice mark and weight with 4 runs this season, one of them recently. That last point I think may be the key to him, he actually won the American Grand National back in October and had his comeback run at Down Royal at the weekend where he won with a slightly "tender" *cough cough* ride. He probably benefited from the fall of Baie Des Iles but when I look at his form I think he needs a run to be at his best....
His form when he's had a run in the previous 5 weeks over more than 2.5m reads 323121. He was 3rd in the Pertemps won by Presenting Percy, and actually had him behind him when he won at Punchestown in Nov '17 (along with subsequent Grade 1 winner Shattered Love). He does have a bit of a quirk that manifests itself when he is left in front - he got beaten a short head in a handicap hurdle at Punchestown in Apr '16 and perhaps more alarmingly got beaten when left in front at Naas in January last year. It seems then that he needs to be delivered late, and likely benefits from plenty of cover in a big field (bingo!). His form in fields of 20 or more reads 3233.
This then leads onto his likely partner being Robbie Power, who I have as one of the top 5 jockeys around, and indeed has hit the first 10 in the last three nationals with different horses and won the race on Silver Birch back in 2007. Power is close friends with the owners, and actually rode the horse in America in Oct so surely takes the ride here. BIG BIG tick for this.
One quibble could be a stamina doubt. He seemingly got tired on the run in at Naas that time but that was on desperate ground and I wonder if it is more a question of him needing company. I can see Power nursing him into contention steadily and not going for home till between the last and the elbow. On pedigree stamina shouldn't be an issue and he has only had one real go at marathon trips when he was sent off fav for the 4 miler last year. He never really got into a rhythm that day though and I wonder whether better ground may suit as well - he looks to have quite a smooth action to me anyway.
He is currently 33/1 first 6 with Paddy Power, and has been confirmed with this race as the target. That makes some appeal to me for all that we'll probably get a few extra places come the day (but I can see him being sub 20/1 by that stage). To tie it all together, one of the syndicate that owns him passed away last year so there won't be a dry eye in the house and the National will have it's "story" to go with too.....
Anyway, more work still do on this but this one making more and more appeal to me
tiger now at 7/2 on skybet nrnb that is outrageous, from a horse racing fan type of view would be fantastic to see but that sort of race its far too short i didnt even touch it at cheltenham and although it was v impressive a lot can go wrong in these type of races.
Comments
I hope Bless The Wings is retired, first and foremost - he's a lovely horse but clearly too long in the tooth now.
Vintage Clouds looks a good National prospect, and lots of bookies have shortened accordingly. The 14/1 with Bob's lot (1/4 1-5) is the best of what's out there.
Tiger Roll is now miles too short so any win interest I'll have in him would be on the day, when he hopefully/likely drifts.
Of the other horses shorter than 20/1, Anibale Fly would be true each-way scumbaggery with the current place terms (and thus backable despite the relatively small returns you'd get from a place), while Rathvinden is simply too short.
But I'll leave it to the experts!
Walk In The Mill provided some recompense when bolting up in the Becher (was on for a good payout in the National last year before he went lame in the morning) but he's been well found now.
I had the pleasure of talking to Enda Bolger at Cheltenham who is pretty adamant that Tiger Roll will win this and the next one but he's a scandalously short price to do so now.
The one I keep coming back to is Vintage Clouds who was 2nd in the Ultima last week, and has gone up today to 149 but will get to run off 144 in this (if he gets in!). I've never been a huge fan of his until last week when I've rated him in the mid-150s and it could be that the wind op he's had prior to Cheltenham has unlocked the key to him. I have some reservations about him seeing out the trip fully on pedigree but he was a close up 3rd in the Scottish National so I am being picky! He is towards the head of the market though already so hardly anything ground breaking.
IF it came up a bog (who knows these days) I wouldn't mind getting Monbeg Notorious onside early. He really is a boat but went off 8/1 for the Irish National last year and gets to run off 152. His pedigree is just stamina stamina stamina, and his campaign looks to have been a nice softly softly build up approach to something, improving with each run. He won a Thyestes by 11L on heavy ground as a 7yo and I don't want to miss the big day whenever it comes (maybe Irish version tbf)
Looks like they've taken Jarob as the horse to rate the X-Country through to get Tiger Roll to 167. I don't assess those races as there isn't anything to compare them to on the card, so there is a degree of "finger in the air" involved with that figure you'd think.
What he will provide though will be some savage each way opportunities. Given that William Hill and Paddy Power seem to be in their own war to give the most place concessions each weekend I'd imagine we could see something crazy - 10 places I think has been done before? Certainly seen 8. Wouldn't put it past Hills to do 12 potentially. With Tiger Roll set to go off a short price fav their place book will be severely overbroke. Will be unleashing hell accordingly
But to be fair, according to Peanuts on the 2018 GN thread, PolzeathNick's horse ratings are "so astute that he should be the next handicapper" so his insights provide a lovely methadone hit to tide us over until we can inject some of Peanuts' smack.
Would say you'll need to be 142 or higher to get in looking at it and the plethora of Irish entries.
My current shortlist (Tiger Roll discounted on price grounds)
Yala Enki
Blaklion
Lake View Lad
Dounikos
Jury Duty
Monbeg Notorious
Mall Dini
Vintage Clouds
Walk In The Mill
The Young Master
No way am I getting involved though until after decs and extra places come into play and know the likely state of ground etc... Race complexion could change a load with Bristol De Mai coming out, and Tiger Roll not running for whatever reason.
2nd forfeit stage yesterday and defections, including Elegant Escape, just published. Bristol De Mai remains in but, if heading to Aintree, could still go for The Bowl. That might be the better choice with Anibale Fly at a significant advantage at the weights on paper.
BDM's possible participation remains a big variable for GN weights and ratings but time and tide wait for no man and so, with essentially all preps run, below are my model's top-rated 2019 GN entries, after running the slide rule over all those down to OR143 - I doubt the cut will come below that.
They're ranked below in order of strength of rating, but all those listed have ratings in the range inhabited by the 20 highest-rated of the 22 GN winners and near-missers (<5L) since 2005, as back-tested by my Mark II model. FYI, the 2 lowest-rated former winners/near-missers (both in the same race, which had only 2 runners with "winning" ratings, both of which ran well but encountered misfortune) were one-notch below this range, normally considered Strong Place Potential.
An important point about a model is that it is, of course, totally objective. Much as I might like it to whittle the field down for me to just 4, all at tasty e/w odds, and rule out those at the head of the market, it simply tells it as it sees it - as it must if it's to be of any value over time. As will be seen, unfortunately, this year it’s largely (though not totally) seeing things as the market is.
In the past it’s identified 3~6 each year with winning profiles on the specific ground. Last year, on Heavy, it identified 7 and these turned out to include 1st, 3rd and 5th home. However, with that many on the shortlist, sadly, my nose had to come into play and, as sure as eggs is eggs, I gave the winner the swerve and cashed out on 3rd placed Bless The Wings.
The model had done a decent job but I failed to back the correct perm from its shortlist. That said, as noted, Pleasant Company was the first "stat-outlier" to near-miss in 12 years and prompted my return to the drawing board and construction of Mark II.
I'd hoped the new model might deliver a shortlist this year that could be backed in its entirety, without the need for my picking and choosing but that’s unlikely, especially if BDM runs. Indeed, from OR and my model's perspectives, it's shaping up to be one of the highest quality and most competitive GNs for years:
· BDM would be the highest (uncompressed) Officially Rated GN runner (now OR172) since Master Oats in 1997.
· Even with 4lbs OR compression for the race, his presence would keep the absolute weights at levels that elevate the stat-ratings of several from "strong place potential" to "winning" calibre, depending on the going.
· Regardless of his presence, the model's 2 highest-rated runners have “top-quartile” ratings (i.e. in the top 25% of the ratings-range of former winners and near-missers since 2005).
That said, as a salutary reminder, in 2012 my old model rated a runner with the strongest GN stat-profile of any runner since 1988. Desperately sadly, that horse (Synchronised) never came home. The model wasn't necessarily wrong but it's not a crystal ball. It's simply a tool designed to improve betting %s over time and, despite my occasional cock-ups in translating it to a betting slip, it's served me well down the years.
So, to business:
With 2 key “known unknowns”, the ratings are in the context of 4 alternative scenarios. Despite having 2 stand-out candidates, given the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune in a typical GN but also given the number of winning calibre runners identified by the model, the winner should be one of, but could be any of, those in the relevant list. But, if it were to prove perfectly accurate, either a 45 or a 79-year old trend would be broken on 6 April. If not, maybe we'll have to settle for breaking a 68-year old one – for the Ladies).
A. BDM scratched / GS or better:
#1 Ramses De Teillee (33/1), Tiger Roll (9/2)
#3 General Principle (33/1), Anibale Fly (12/1), Abolitionist (33/1), Vintage Clouds (14/1)
B. BDM scratched / Softer than GS:
#1 Ramses De Teillee, Tiger Roll
#3 General Principle, Ms Parfois (25/1), Anibale Fly
#6 Abolitionist, Rathvinden (12/1), Pleasant Company (33/1), Folsom Blue (40/1)
C. BDM runs / GS or better:
#1 Ramses De Teillee, Tiger Roll
#3 Anibale Fly
#4 General Principle, Abolitionist, Vintage Clouds, Rathvinden, Pleasant Company
D. BDM runs / Softer than GS:
#1 Ramses De Teillee, Tiger Roll
#3 Anibale Fly
#4 General Principle, Ms Parfois, Pleasant Company, Rathvinden
#8 Abolitionist, Folsom Blue
One notch below these in the ratings are those that could run a huge race (depending on weight and underhoof conditions) but are considered Place Potential at best: Yala Enki (if softer than GS, 66/1), Mall Dini (25/1), Walk In The Mill (33/1).
How am I translating this to my betting slip?......[to be continued]
Decisions, decisions!!
At the e/w prices (and accepting that I may just have to cheer on Tiger Roll as winner without my shilling aboard), my betting slip will include:
- Ramses
De Teillee (already backed)
- General
Principle (already backed)
- Ms
Parfois (if softer than GS)
- Vintage
Clouds (if GS or better)
- and
ANOther TBD - maybe a reload on Abolitionist
Of course, it's your call entirely whether to take any notice of my model's output and, if so, how. Please only bet what you can afford never to see again.But why Ms Parfois (if softer than GS) and Vintage Clouds (if GS or better) and why prefer them to Anibale Fly, who’s higher-rated if BDM runs and the same if he doesn't, regardless of going?
Last question first, on paper Anibale Fly’s held (comfortably) at the weights by Tiger Roll and, at the prices, I’d rather look down the card to lightly-weighted GN debutants whose profiles look tailor-made for the race, given their ground.
MS PARFOIS
· Tough mare with abundant stamina – close 2nd to Rathvinden in the 4m Novice Chase at the Festival last year on testing ground. They re-oppose on near-identical terms.
· But Ms P has proven it over further still when a not-stopping 2nd (3L) with 11.04 in Saturday’s Midlands National over 34f - the longest trip in the calendar bar the Big One – on Heavy.
· It may be said that the GN comes too soon, just 21 days after such a tough race but her sequence of runs last year read 3111222 (the last 6 on Soft) and came at an average 24-day gap, with just 5 days between 2 of the wins. She tends to take her races well but, in any event, has had a much lighter campaign this season – 2 runs. First of the season was a disappointing 6th in the Hennessy in December, after noticeably sweating up prior to the race, but she did likewise on debut the previous season. Handled the hullabaloo of Cheltenham and the GN meeting last season well enough and won't be "fresh".
· She’ll be 7lbs “well-in” as a result of her Midlands National run and will carry a very appealing 10.02 (or 10.06 if BDM is scratched). There are not many, still in the early stages of their chasing career, that line up in a GN with such a low absolute weight and that have Grade 1 form - close 2nd in the 25f Novice Chase at last year's GN meeting, 4 weeks after the Festival.
· Made frame in 78% of chases (5 wins/near-misses in 8 at 3m+).
· Never faced the GN fences but 100% completions to date in 15 runs over obstacles
· Would want meaningful cut (GS[Sft] or softer) for her best chance and might conceivably not run if ground is too quick.
· No mare has won the GN since Nickel Coin in 1951 but harder for them these days to make the GN line-up. Prior to weights’ compression, Auntie Dot (1991), Ebony Jane (1994, 5 days after placing in the Irish GN) and Dubacilla (1995) all made the first 4 in the GN.
· Races prominently – should minimise traffic problems.
VINTAGE CLOUDS
· From GN-winning yard (Sue Smith), VC was very unfortunate to miss lining up last year, though maybe conditions wouldn’t have best suited him.
· Needs 5 to come out to make the cut this time - should be OK but bear in mind Elliot intends to run a cavalry division. If VC lines up, he’ll be 5lbs “well-in” after his staying-on close 2nd in the Ultima Chase at The Festival – significantly, his first run after a wind op.
· He’ll carry just 10.00 (in the handicap) or 10.04 if BDM comes out.
· His major stat-plus on form is identical to that of his stable’s GN winner (Auroras Encore) – a near-miss (4L 3rd) in the Scottish GN a year ago - like AE’s, run at a relentless gallop and clocking a fast time on Good ground. Though VC certainly has decent form on Soft, he seems to jump with more fluency on a sounder surface.
· His stamina was evident in his dogged, staying-on 16.5L 4th with 11.01 in the 2017 Welsh GN on Heavy but so too was that lack of jumping fluency which, together with some bad luck, cost him his chance.
· Yet to face the GN fences and has 2 Fs on his record, though the last was 2 years ago (don't be totally put off by Fs and URs - Rough Quest had a shed-load of them but won over the bigger version of the fences in 1996)
· Made the frame in 75% of 16 chases.
· 3 runs in the season, the last 25 days prior – in the sweet spot stats-wise
Extended weather forecast for Aintree shows it dry for the rest of March and moderate rain before and during the GN meeting. Given the policy to water to ensure Official Going no quicker than GS (though official Good-to-Soft for GN-course seems to have particular latitude), it could go either way. But at this point it looks very unlikely to be testing, as it was last year.
Bring it on!!
Think that's readily visible in the "age stat". Whilst Amberleigh House won this as a 12yo in 2004, and Pineau De Re completed a hat-trick of 11yo winners in 2014. Three of the last four have been eight year olds though.
David Pipe though....
Plenty of water to go under the bridge I feel for this race!
After first run of season, over fences, in double figure fields away from Cheltenham his form reads
1122
With his only defeats a close defeat in Welsh National that he arguably would've won with a better jump, and a close defeat in the National Trial at Haydock.
Looks like he ticks every box bar the age stat, but if you delve back into the history of the race plenty of younger horses have won it!
To cut to the chase, considering the stats of the 31 7yos to have run in GNs since 2005, 84% of them stood no chance on those stats, irrespective of age.
1 had winning-calibre stats - Double Honour, 2005 who was going well and 2nd when UR at 21st.
4 others had minor place-calibre stats - incl. both Big Fella Thanks in 2009 and Cause of Causes in 2015, who both ran more or less in line.
In other words, 7 yos have certainly underperformed their representation but not necessarily their actual potential.
Hence I'm happy to go with RDT, who has stats way superior to any other 7 yo GN runner in recent times.
And, of course, recent greater success of 8 yos (3 of last 4 winners) may suggest that the post-2012 race changes have levelled the playing field a bit age-wise.
EDIT - Pipe confirmed today: "Ramses will run, all being well…We were not sure if he was going to get the trip in the Welsh National, but he got it well and he ran very well at Haydock. While he's only seven, he's been to the Festival, the Welsh National and the Grand National Trial and doesn't seem to be fazed by anything. I don't know if he'll get the Grand National trip, but you can say that about a lot of horses. He's not schooled over the National fences yet, we'll school him next week over them"
I think there have been 171 runnings of the race - it's actually had five year old and six year old winners back in the day, but the minimum age now is seven.
I went back through the recent renewals (before I got bored!) and of the last 27 seven year olds their average SP has been 56/1. At SP you'd expect 0.836 winners, and given the overround can guarantee that should actually be a fair chunk lower. So definitely weight behind the argument that dismissing seven year olds out of hand isn't the way forward.
Actually, the more I look at him the more I like him. I do like a good stat-buster! He ticks every other box for me - won in big fields, proven stamina by winning over long trip or placed in national, right experience etc....
The mark of 149 looks workable too. He actually got put up to 154 after Haydock....
And his regular pilot, Danny Cook: “Everyone thinks he is a slogger, but I think he needs better ground because it helps him travel through his races. If he gets round, he will be placed.”
Read more at: https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/sport/horse-racing/sue-smith-s-vintage-clouds-primed-and-ready-for-grand-national-call-1-9662581
Anibale Fly at Cheltenham......
With an OR of 142 it's touch and go/quite unlikely she'll make the cut, but when it's NRNB at such a big price I'm happy to invest.
She's now 8 years old (as PolzeathNick said, 3 of the last 4 winners were this age); but still a mare so we need a trend-bust in one regard.
Was tanking along like a good thing at Down Royal before falling 3 out, ahead of some good horses such as Jury Duty, Mala Beach and Don Poli, and the RPR for the winner there was a big 160.
She was tired last GN, of course, which isn't ideal, but suffered a massive hampering at the 23rd and was never on terms thereafter (what could have been if that hadn't occurred!).
Collected a lovely prize at Auteuil over an albeit strange 2m6f, but that was under Townend who was also on board at Down Royal.
These are all scattergun thoughts and probably reflect my tiredness, but if she gets in and if she runs (depends a lot on what Ross Sullivan does), then I'd take a very close interest.
And re Ms Parfois, from today's Racing Post, trainer Anthony Honeyball's update, echoing comments of @killer kish who knows the yard very well.
"We were delighted with her in the Midlands Grand National..... I was very disappointed to get beat but it was pleasing that she was back to her best.
She seems to have come out of it all right, so now the only question mark is the ground and that's the only reason why she wouldn't run.
......She travels fine and is very assured at her fences...... She's nearly the perfect horse – maybe she just lacks that little bit of pace at the end of the race but she has built up a good CV."
One concern I've got about Ramses De Teillee are if he isn't a bit slow for this? Tend to need to travel in this race and in back of my mind got a bit of a worry about that. Food for thought anyway
I do really like Vintage Clouds, the case emphasised by @PeanutsMolloy .... but the other one steadily making his way towards the top of my list is JURY DUTY.
He fits all the key stats being an 8yo, with 11 runs over fences, running off a nice mark and weight with 4 runs this season, one of them recently. That last point I think may be the key to him, he actually won the American Grand National back in October and had his comeback run at Down Royal at the weekend where he won with a slightly "tender" *cough cough* ride. He probably benefited from the fall of Baie Des Iles but when I look at his form I think he needs a run to be at his best....
His form when he's had a run in the previous 5 weeks over more than 2.5m reads 323121. He was 3rd in the Pertemps won by Presenting Percy, and actually had him behind him when he won at Punchestown in Nov '17 (along with subsequent Grade 1 winner Shattered Love). He does have a bit of a quirk that manifests itself when he is left in front - he got beaten a short head in a handicap hurdle at Punchestown in Apr '16 and perhaps more alarmingly got beaten when left in front at Naas in January last year. It seems then that he needs to be delivered late, and likely benefits from plenty of cover in a big field (bingo!). His form in fields of 20 or more reads 3233.
This then leads onto his likely partner being Robbie Power, who I have as one of the top 5 jockeys around, and indeed has hit the first 10 in the last three nationals with different horses and won the race on Silver Birch back in 2007. Power is close friends with the owners, and actually rode the horse in America in Oct so surely takes the ride here. BIG BIG tick for this.
One quibble could be a stamina doubt. He seemingly got tired on the run in at Naas that time but that was on desperate ground and I wonder if it is more a question of him needing company. I can see Power nursing him into contention steadily and not going for home till between the last and the elbow. On pedigree stamina shouldn't be an issue and he has only had one real go at marathon trips when he was sent off fav for the 4 miler last year. He never really got into a rhythm that day though and I wonder whether better ground may suit as well - he looks to have quite a smooth action to me anyway.
He is currently 33/1 first 6 with Paddy Power, and has been confirmed with this race as the target. That makes some appeal to me for all that we'll probably get a few extra places come the day (but I can see him being sub 20/1 by that stage). To tie it all together, one of the syndicate that owns him passed away last year so there won't be a dry eye in the house and the National will have it's "story" to go with too.....
Anyway, more work still do on this but this one making more and more appeal to me
He'll drift markedly on the day though, surely.