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Grand National 2019

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  • edited April 2019
    PaddyP17 said:


    - Have bookmakers' odds ever come into the model's factoring?

    I realise SPs are probably the only thing you can go off, unless (for instance) you're able to recall heavily punted fancies, like Baie Des Iles coming in from 66s to 14s last year. 

    But, I would possibly guess that - certainly with this year and last - your choice of scaled each-way bets means you're poking at generally higher odds, and thus those you leave unbacked at shorter odds "show you up" (absolutely not a criticism btw) a little? 

    Also - the Mighty Tiger winning at 12s and then 4s(!) also helping establish the "strength of the bookies might be worth considering.

    I realise you said in the immediate aftermath that to be successful you need an identifier of "value", so the above question might be moot, but even so.


    Hi @PaddyP17- sorry to be slow replying and apologies if this sends all to sleep  :)

    - Have bookmakers' odds ever come into the model's factoring?

    In short, no – purposely so, because I want to eliminate as much subjectivity as possible.

    To explain the background. The premises for my GN model (which may or may not continue to hold) are that:

    1. Trends (relating to facts about runners) are highly relevant in the GN

    2. The market (on the whole) tends to mis-interpret GN trends (by focussing only on winners) and has (largely unhelpful) subjective biases

    3. Left to my own devices, I’m a shit tipster (this will definitely hold)

    So, if I can create a model that’s as objective as possible and is adept at interpreting GN trends, over time, I should be able to identify:

    • A materially excess % of winners/placers
    • Of which a number should represent “value”

    Numerical outperformance is the primary goal - identifying value an important but indirect one.

    Has it worked?

    - Numerically:

    From 2006~2019 inclusive, the relevant versions of the model in use have identified a total of 72 Win Candidates (13% of total fields).

    These yielded: 

    • 50% of winners (7 of 14) (to be fair to the model, including Pineau De Re in 2014, for which I’d screwed up a key data input), and
    • 30% of places 2~6 (21 of 70).   

    Put another way, 15.1% of 556 total runners have filled the first 6 home but 38.9% of the model’s 72 Win Candidates have done so. 

    - Value:

    Not always easy to define but 10 of those 28 winners/placers were priced 40/1+ by the market, either when I backed them or at the Off (note both price contraction and drift): 

    • 2006: Nil Desperandum – 4th (backed at 40/1 but 33/1 SP)
    • 2009: Mon Mome – won (80/1 but 100/1 SP)
    • 2010: Don’t Push It – won (40/1 [pre-AP plunge] but 10/1 SP JF)
    • 2010: Hello Bud – 5th (50/1 but 20/1 SP)
    • 2013: Swing Bill – 6th (80/1, same SP)
    • 2015: Monbeg Dude – 3rd (backed at 33/1 but 40/1 SP)
    • 2016: Vics Canvas – 3rd (backed at 66/1 but 100/1 SP)
    • 2017: Saint Are – 3rd (40/1 but 25/1 SP)
    • 2018: Milansbar – 5th (50/1 but 25/1 SP) [& Bless The Wings - 3rd (40/1 SP - cashed out!!]

    Is it still working?

    Have the post-2012 changes to the GN fences and trip (which, from observation, appear to have altered the character of the race) undermined the accuracy of the model or its premises? 

    Well, one premise is a constant - I remain a shit tipster (and that’s not an irrelevant aside).

    Not surprisingly, the model’s had a wobble (shown up in strike rate) but it’s too early to say that either its efficacy (it’s modified each year of course) or the market’s perspicacity as regards the GN has fundamentally changed post-2012.

    Comparing the 7 GNs 2006-12 with the 7 GNs 2013-19:

    - Model – [incl. Pineau De Re in 2014]

    • 4 winners (06-12) vs. winners (13-19)
    • 10 placed 2~6 (06-12) vs. 11 placed 2~6 (13-19)
    • However, of 34 Win Candidates (06-12) 41% finished 1~6 vs. 37% of 38 (13-19)

    - Market

    • Ave. SP for 2~6: 29.8/1 (06-12) vs. 27.3/1 (13-19)
    • Ave. SP for Winners: 29.7/1 (06-12) vs. 25.3/1 (13-19, but excl. TR’s 2nd win = 28.8/1 [2013-18])
    • No. of favs (sole, joint, co) winning: 2 (06-12) vs. 1 (13-19)
    • No. of 66/1+ winners/placers: 6 (06-12) vs. 5 (13-19)

    Will comment about scaling bets and seeking value and answer your other questions shortly.

    Cheers. 

  • edited April 2019
    Scottish GN at 3.35pm today.
    Top-weight scratched because of the fast ground - weights unchanged so 9 run from out-of-the-handicap.
    Often unexposed young 'uns do well but 11 yos have won it 3 times in last 10 years so don't be put off by age.  
    No stat-model here, just my nose (oh dear!)
    Big River made money for me at the Festival, finishing like a train in the Ultima (same mark today). Stamina his strength but even on Soft at Cheltenham, he got a little behind. Things happen very quickly in a Scottish GN on good ground and 12/1 is a bit short for my liking.
    I'm plumping (6 places e/w) for:
    • Impulsive Star (16/1) - won Jan's 3m 5f Warwick National on quickish GS, seeing it out well (OR +6lbs but form franked by Crosspark and Caroles Destrier - both held at today's weights on that run). Twice failed at 4m on atrocious ground under big weights at the Festival. Today's good ground handicap with just 10.05 on his back should suit nicely.
    • Chidswell (22/1) - recent form (won 26f Grimthorpe on Good) suggests a further step up in trip will suit and pedigree indicates 4m within his compass. Course win to his name and, at the price, I prefer him to rivals from Donny who reoppose today on level terms (on paper) - Dingo Dollar and Brian Boranha.
    Caveat emptor!!
  • Scottish GN at 3.35pm today.
    Top-weight scratched because of the fast ground - weights unchanged so 9 run from out-of-the-handicap.
    Often unexposed young 'uns do well but 11 yos have won it 3 times in last 10 years so don't be put by age.  
    No stat-model here, just my nose (oh dear!)
    Big River made money for me at the Festival, finishing like a train in the Ultima (same mark today). Stamina his strength but even on Soft at Cheltenham, he got a little behind. Things happen very quickly in a Scottish GN on good ground and 12/1 is a bit short for my liking.
    I'm plumping (6 places e/w) for:
    • Impulsive Star (16/1) - won Jan's 3m 5f Warwick National on quickish GS, seeing it out well (OR +6lbs but form franked by Crosspark and Caroles Destrier - both held at today's weights on that run). Twice failed at 4m on atrocious ground under big weights at the Festival. Today's good ground handicap with just 10.05 on his back should suit nicely.
    • Chidswell (22/1) - recent form (won 26f Grimthorpe on Good) suggests a further step up in trip will suit and pedigree indicates 4m within his compass. Course win to his name and, at the price, I prefer him to rivals from Donny who reoppose today on level terms (on paper) - Dingo Dollar and Brian Boranha.
    Caveat emptor!!
    Gone with the Guru and also taken an additional punt (and 10 places) on Blue Flight as I thought there was value there.
  • edited April 2019
    LenGlover said:
    Scottish GN at 3.35pm today.
    Top-weight scratched because of the fast ground - weights unchanged so 9 run from out-of-the-handicap.
    Often unexposed young 'uns do well but 11 yos have won it 3 times in last 10 years so don't be put by age.  
    No stat-model here, just my nose (oh dear!)
    Big River made money for me at the Festival, finishing like a train in the Ultima (same mark today). Stamina his strength but even on Soft at Cheltenham, he got a little behind. Things happen very quickly in a Scottish GN on good ground and 12/1 is a bit short for my liking.
    I'm plumping (6 places e/w) for:
    • Impulsive Star (16/1) - won Jan's 3m 5f Warwick National on quickish GS, seeing it out well (OR +6lbs but form franked by Crosspark and Caroles Destrier - both held at today's weights on that run). Twice failed at 4m on atrocious ground under big weights at the Festival. Today's good ground handicap with just 10.05 on his back should suit nicely.
    • Chidswell (22/1) - recent form (won 26f Grimthorpe on Good) suggests a further step up in trip will suit and pedigree indicates 4m within his compass. Course win to his name and, at the price, I prefer him to rivals from Donny who reoppose today on level terms (on paper) - Dingo Dollar and Brian Boranha.
    Caveat emptor!!
    Gone with the Guru and also taken an additional punt (and 10 places) on Blue Flight as I thought there was value there.
    Cheers @LenGlover - I think the Guru's living on borrowed time but much appreciated.

    Twiston Davies had the one and only 6yo to win the ScGN (Earth Summit, 1994) - knows what it takes and Blue Flight looks the right type. Good luck.
  • edited April 2019
    PaddyP17 said:


    - Have bookmakers' odds ever come into the model's factoring?

    I realise SPs are probably the only thing you can go off, unless (for instance) you're able to recall heavily punted fancies, like Baie Des Iles coming in from 66s to 14s last year. 

    But, I would possibly guess that - certainly with this year and last - your choice of scaled each-way bets means you're poking at generally higher odds, and thus those you leave unbacked at shorter odds "show you up" (absolutely not a criticism btw) a little? 

    Also - the Mighty Tiger winning at 12s and then 4s(!) also helping establish the "strength of the bookies might be worth considering.

    I realise you said in the immediate aftermath that to be successful you need an identifier of "value", so the above question might be moot, but even so.


    Back to your first set of questions @PaddyP17 - some more of Dr. Molloy’s Sleep-Aid (Max Strength):


    -     I would possibly guess that - certainly with this year and last - your choice of scaled each-way bets means you're poking at generally higher odds, and thus those you leave unbacked at shorter odds "show you up" (absolutely not a criticism btw) a little? 

    In theory:

    Removing as much subjectivity as possible also applies to translating the model’s output to my betting slip.

    There’s no min/max number of Win Candidates that the model may identify each year but, until 2018, the range had been 3~6, most commonly 5.

    A “Win Candidate” has a stat-rating in the range of the top 90% of the back-tested stat-ratings of all former winners/near-missers (<5L) in the sample. Some may have higher ratings than others but, given the variables that come into play in a GN, I assume that the winner could be any of them; the others being the strongest candidates to fill the places. So, my ideal betting strategy is to back all Win Candidates e/w with scaled bets (according to their odds), using both bookies and Betfair place market, so as to be broadly indifferent as to which scores.

    Accordingly, the approach is agnostic as to “value”.

    Obviously, the number of selections and their odds substantially dictates the risk-reward profile of my betting slip - the amount I stake in the Betfair place market fine-tunes it. My objective isn't “feast or famine” year-to-year but a long-term, accumulation of modest profits in most years, with (hopefully) a low risk of loss. I have to play the hand the model deals me but, ideally, I want my betting slip to achieve:

    • 1 place = c. breakeven, so 2 places = c. 100% profit
    • A win = gravy of varying %
    In practice:

    What I’m hoping for each year is 1 winner & at least 1 place and in the 14 GNs I’ve been using the model, it’s offered that 6 times (though, owing to different cock-ups, I’ve taken advantage on only 3 occasions); Winner only or 2+ places - 4 times; 1 place only - 4 times; Wipe-out - never.

    The beauty of the GN for e/w betting, of course, is the scale of odds available for so many runners. Admittedly there was a hot favourite last Saturday but 29 had SPs 25/1+ and 18 (45% of the field) were 50/1+ at the Off. 

    Most years, I’ve been able to construct a betting slip that’s achieved an acceptable risk-reward profile. But in 2012, 2018 and 2019 it wasn’t possible to back all the Win Candidates e/w and do so.

    • 2012 (4 Win Candidates at odds of 12, 16, 20 & 25/1) – I went win only on Synchronised but still couldn’t breakeven with the solitary place (Sunnyhillboy 2nd)
    • 2018 – on heavy ground the model produced an unprecedented 8 Win Candidates - there had only been 6 Soft-ground GNs in 30 years (only 2 since weights’ compression) and, on reflection, with such a small sample, the Soft-Heavy version of the model wasn’t honed enough. Not viable to back all 8, I decided to cash-out on Bless The Wings (3rd), because he’d run a long way on bottomless ground (PU) in the Irish GN 12 days before Aintree, and to swerve Tiger Roll (1st), short in the market after his XC win. Backed the other 6 at tastier prices but 3 of them had departed by 8th fence and only 1 scored a place. There's that shitty tipster!
    • 2019 – thankfully just 5 Win Candidates but, alas, 3 of them at or near the head of the market (4~14/1), having all run impressively at the Festival. Added to which, almost all bookies now 1/5 odds e/w. So, the returns' profile of the betting strategy was again squeezed hard and, as you know, I swerved Tiger Roll once more, in favour of what I considered a “better value” 50/1 e/w strong place proposition. Only 1 selection scored, as in 2012, insufficient to breakeven.

    -     you said in the immediate aftermath that to be successful you need an identifier of "value"

    I said “it's got to produce better results identifying value”. It was a daft comment really. As explained, it’s not the model's purpose to identify value as such. If the premises supporting it hold in this new-GN era, it should continue to do so in its indirect way, at least in some years. 

    However, the prevalence of 1/5 e/w odds is going to make a repeat of 2012 or 2019 scenario more likely - virtually certain next year if TR runs, as it’s inconceivable he wouldn’t be a Win Candidate, even with top-weight…………“déjà vu all over again” and the question will arise once more, what is "value"? 

    Some make an objective appraisal but I'd say it's in the eye of the beholder. For me, perhaps it's the value of the whole package (of "the opportunity") presented in a given year.

    Of course, there are options other than second-guessing the model and swerving a Win Candidate altogether (which I wouldn't repeat, even if TR is indeed lousy value). I'll do more tactical positioning pre-final preps (using exchanges or bookies that offer a cash-out facility) but if I don't feel that the returns' profile offered by backing all the Win Candidates in scaled-balance ("the opportunity") represents "value", I may radically scale back the total stake and, effectively, sit it out.

    A fair bit to mull but, if you're still awake, I hope that sort of makes sense.

    I’ll answer your last questions, about the model’s factors (e.g. age), shortly. 

    Cheers

    COYR 


  • edited April 2019
    LenGlover said:
    Scottish GN at 3.35pm today.
    Top-weight scratched because of the fast ground - weights unchanged so 9 run from out-of-the-handicap.
    Often unexposed young 'uns do well but 11 yos have won it 3 times in last 10 years so don't be put by age.  
    No stat-model here, just my nose (oh dear!)
    Big River made money for me at the Festival, finishing like a train in the Ultima (same mark today). Stamina his strength but even on Soft at Cheltenham, he got a little behind. Things happen very quickly in a Scottish GN on good ground and 12/1 is a bit short for my liking.
    I'm plumping (6 places e/w) for:
    • Impulsive Star (16/1) - won Jan's 3m 5f Warwick National on quickish GS, seeing it out well (OR +6lbs but form franked by Crosspark and Caroles Destrier - both held at today's weights on that run). Twice failed at 4m on atrocious ground under big weights at the Festival. Today's good ground handicap with just 10.05 on his back should suit nicely.
    • Chidswell (22/1) - recent form (won 26f Grimthorpe on Good) suggests a further step up in trip will suit and pedigree indicates 4m within his compass. Course win to his name and, at the price, I prefer him to rivals from Donny who reoppose today on level terms (on paper) - Dingo Dollar and Brian Boranha.
    Caveat emptor!!
    Gone with the Guru and also taken an additional punt (and 10 places) on Blue Flight as I thought there was value there.
    1. Takingrisks
    2. Crosspark
    3. Cloth Cap
    4. Blue Flight
    5. Big River
    6. Vintage Clouds

    Great pick @LenGlover
    Flew home, as did Big River (and I think both got badly hampered earlier).
    Well done Chief. 
  • edited April 2019
    A good news update after last Saturday's GN - General Principle took a heavy fall at 18th and was taken away in a horse ambulance, but the injuries were superficial and he's fine. May line up "to defend his title" in the Irish GN on Easter Monday     :)


  • edited April 2019
    And to round off a rather less than stellar season for me punting-wise, in Monday's Irish GN I shall be bidding a sad farewell to shillings carried by:
    • Whisperinthebreeze (20/1 - 6 pl)
    • Valseur Lido (50/1 -6 pl)
    Like Valseur Lido, A Toi Phil (33/1 - 6 pl) ran creditably (IMO) in the GN and will again relish the decent ground, though 11.01 is a no-no stats-wise for all but top-drawer Irish GN winners.
  • edited April 2019
    Irish GN:

    1. Measureofmydreams
    2. Whisperinthebreeze
    3. General Principle
    4. Valseur Lido
    5. Islofhopendreams
  • edited April 2019
    There's a truth and a myth in the 2 most frequently cited stats for the Irish GN.
    Definitely true that <11.00 is strongly favoured, particularly <10.07.
    What's not true is that youth is favoured. There have certainly been a lot of <10 yo winners and frame-makers but that's because there have been plenty of <10 yo runners. In fact, in terms of representation, 10+ yo tend to outperform. I wouldn't suggest favouring the seniors but don't be put off them either.
    As usual, following my view of e/w value, joining Whisperinthebreeze and Valseur Lido on my final slip for tomorrow's biggie at Fairyhouse are:
    • Gun Digger (20/1 - 5 pl 1/4)
    • Forever Gold (50/1 - 6 pl 1/5) [though I appear to be the only person on the planet to think it wouldn't be a shock for this old fella to grab some prize money] 
    General Principle was going well in the GN when Pleasant Company ran across him at the 18th and he took a heavy fall. Could go well again tomorrow but jockey booking suggests perhaps not one of Elliott's main hopes.
    Shady Operator looks potentially a big player but 14/1 a bit skinny for my liking.
    Still expecting A Toi Phil to go well at the price (66/1), Rachael Blackmore rides, but 11.01 counts against.

    BTW - don't be too swayed by the stat that says running in the GN at Fairyhouse after doing so at Aintree is a no-no. It's only the 3rd time in 15 years that the gap's been as long as 16 days and only 3 runners have tried on those 2 previous occasions - 8 doing so today. 

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  • Pairofbrowneyes and Shattered Love my two today.
  • Pairofbrowneyes for me having backed for GN and been taken out day before. Fear Jury Duty who fell early GN. 
  • Gun Digger for me .. savers on Jury Duty and Shady Operator 
  • Pairofbrowneyes for me having backed for GN and been taken out day before. Fear Jury Duty who fell early GN. 
    Been rebuked by one of my pals who says Jury Duty unseated. 
  • Pairofbrowneyes for me having backed for GN and been taken out day before. Fear Jury Duty who fell early GN. 
    Been rebuked by one of my pals who says Jury Duty unseated. 
    Dead right but you'd have had to superglue Robbie Power's arse to the saddle to stop him coming off   :)
  • Pairofbrowneyes for me having backed for GN and been taken out day before. Fear Jury Duty who fell early GN. 
    Been rebuked by one of my pals who says Jury Duty unseated. 
    Dead right but you'd have had to superglue Robbie Power's arse to the saddle to stop him coming off   :)
    Any idea if the horse carried on loose or if he was caught early. I might still have a small bet on him. 
  • edited April 2019
    Pairofbrowneyes for me having backed for GN and been taken out day before. Fear Jury Duty who fell early GN. 
    Been rebuked by one of my pals who says Jury Duty unseated. 
    Dead right but you'd have had to superglue Robbie Power's arse to the saddle to stop him coming off   :)
    Any idea if the horse carried on loose or if he was caught early. I might still have a small bet on him. 
    He went at the 18th - just watching a replay. He kept on for several fences and it looks to me like he went the whole way but at the back of the pack. Wouldn't set too much store by the extra. Looks like he came home 16th (unless I got the wrong loose horse) - ahead of Ramses  :/  

     
  • Thanks Peanuts
  • edited April 2019




    I think I need to get a proper job.    :'(




  • I think I need to get a proper job.    :'(
    Doing a great job on here mate.
    Much appreciated .
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