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US Midterm Elections

It's almost 1am here.


Quick takeaways for those of you interested.

1. Dems take House by an estimate of 230-205. Three weeks ago I predicted 225-210. This is a very good night for Dems, here.

2. The GOP keeps the Senate by an estimate of 53-47, a pickup of +2 for the GOP. I predicted 51-49 or 52-48, so got pretty close. This is a fairly good night for the GOP here, although the odds were good they were not going to lose this, anyway. There is a slim chance they get even more than 53, depending on a couple of too close to call races in Montana and Arizona.

3. Dems have to be disappointed with the Governor races, even though they flipped a few. They had been leading in polls in Florida, Iowa and Ohio, three crucial swing states and had hoped to win Georgia as well. Instead they won none of them. They did finally get Walker out of Wisconsin and won a few here and there where they were expected to, but the GOP should be pleased with this, overall.

4. There might not be final governor results in 2 states for weeks. Georgia has a very slim chance of a recount, Florida will almost certainly have one and Mississippi will have a run-off in the Senate that the GOP will win, so don't spend energy on that one.

5. There was no Blue Wave, but the Dems did get their primary objective..... a way to block Trump on all legislative proposals by winning their primary target, the House. Obamacare will have zero chance of being overturned until at least 2020.

6. GOP will no longer have to worry about moderate holdouts for future SCOTUS nominees, if Trump gets any more nominees the next two years. By increasing their margin, anyone they nominate will be confirmed, easily. End of story. Dems better pray Ginsburg stays alive.

7. Gridlock is the likely outcome of this election. Many will consider doing nothing at all the next 2 years as the preferable outcome. Each party will begin positioning for the POTUS election in two years.


  • Think that's a fairly accurate summary. I hope the Dems don't just sit in the House and say No to everything because that will seriously backfire on them come 2020.
  • Didn't exactly backfire on the Republicans in 2016...
  • @NapaAddick grateful if you could copy and paste this to the Trump thread. Would rather not have repeated active threads on US politics. Thanks a lot
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Roland Out!