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Nine games left, only three at home... how many points for the play offs?

Home games:

Rotherham (H) 02/04
Scunthorpe (H) 14/04
Blackburn (H) 28/04

Away games:

Northampton (A) 30/03
Bristol Rovers (A) 07/04
Wimbledon (A) 10/04
Shrewsbury (A) 17/04
Portsmouth (A) 21/04
Rochdale (A) 05/05

How many more points do we need from these nine games to get into the playoffs?

This season, after 38 games, sixth place has 57 points- the final total needed for sixth will be ???
Last season, after 38 games, sixth place had 60 points - the final total needed for sixth was 73 points
In 2015/16, after 38 games, sixth place had 59 points - the final total needed for sixth was 74 points
In 2014/15, after 38 games, sixth place had 56 points - the final total needed for sixth was 66 points
In 2013/14, after 38 games, sixth place had 58 points - the final total needed for sixth was 68 points

We'd have to be very unlucky to miss out on 70-74 points but that has happened to a team (Southend 16/17, Scunthorpe 15/16) in each of the last two seasons.

Charlton sit on 55 points currently so to ensure a play-off place in each of the last four years, we need 19 more points from 9 games.

Our home games are against much tougher opposition overall but I suspect we still need 6-7 points from those games to give us a chance at getting the remaining 12 or so points that we would need from the six away games.


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Comments

  • win 5 draw 1 absolute minimum
  • 6 more wins is a must
  • edited March 26

    win 5 draw 1 absolute minimum

    Would give us 71 points which hasn't quite been enough in the last two seasons, but 71 points was enough in the two seasons previous to that.
  • 6 more wins is a must

    Where do you see the six wins coming from? Four away games, two home games?
  • The way every team seems to be completely bottling this season (bar the top 3) I'd say 71 is probably enough to do it.
  • edited March 26

    win 5 draw 1 absolute minimum

    Would give us 71 points which hasn't quite been enough in the last two seasons, but 71 points was enough in the two seasons previous to that.
    yeah that’s why i’m saying absolute minimum. think we’d be lucky to scrape through with that, although the forms of the teams around us might mean we could. i reckon it will come down to rochdale on the last game of the season, and we’ll need a win
  • Rotherham (H) 02/04 - 3 points
    Scunthorpe (H) 14/04 - 1 point
    Blackburn (H) 28/04 - 0 points

    Away games:

    Northampton (A) 30/03 - 3 points
    Bristol Rovers (A) 07/04 - 3 points
    Wimbledon (A) 10/04 - 1 point
    Shrewsbury (A) 17/04 - 1 point
    Portsmouth (A) 21/04 - 0 poinrs
    Rochdale (A) 05/05 - 1 point

    Giving an extra 13 points. It will be too little too late. Of course I hope I'm wrong...
  • Would compare against Peterborough's run-in. Scunthorpe are in a terrible run and sacked their manager at the weekend, and discount Plymouth for now based on Saturday's result.
  • I think the honest answer is I haven't got a scooby.
    If we play like we did on Saturday, we'll win the majority and make the play offs.
    If we play like we did in the last few weeks under KR we'll struggle to end up top half.
  • At least three 6 pointers to come! Rotherham, Scunthorpe, Pompey being playoff rivals, with 2 further matches against automatic chasers

    I don't see why we would fear Rotherham or Scunthorpe, neither are in form at the moment. The Pompey match looks crucial though
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  • Rotherham (H) 02/04 - 3 points
    Scunthorpe (H) 14/04 - 3 points just did a Parky esque sacking, expect them to now fall away.
    Blackburn (H) 28/04 - 0 points

    Away games:

    Northampton (A) 30/03 - 3 points
    Bristol Rovers (A) 07/04 - 3 points
    Wimbledon (A) 10/04 - 1 points
    Shrewsbury (A) 17/04 - 0 points
    Portsmouth (A) 21/04 - 1 point
    Rochdale (A) 05/05 - 3 points

    17 points...

  • Every win, every strong performance helps gain the momentum necessary for a successful play-off campaign. I don't just want to finish 6th or above - I want promotion!!
  • It's really exciting the race for the top 2 spots, as all 3 sides are in excellent form. If we can string a few results together and get on a run, I doubt Blackburn or Shrewsbury will be looking forward to playing us

    The team that finishes 3rd deserves to go up, but it doesn't always work that way.
  • It will take a Herculian effort to make it; so few games which means we cannot afford to lose more than a couple, We have to hope the others drop points and every decision and rub of the green has to go our way. Put simply we have to play like champions for the remainder of the season - easy eh?
  • addick05 said:

    It will take a Herculian effort to make it; so few games which means we cannot afford to lose more than a couple, We have to hope the others drop points and every decision and rub of the green has to go our way. Put simply we have to play like champions for the remainder of the season - easy eh?

    We don't have to play as Champions.

    Just better than the 4 teams above us!
  • Looks very tough to me. Our dreadful run under Robinson will cost us.
  • addick05 said:

    It will take a Herculian effort to make it; so few games which means we cannot afford to lose more than a couple, We have to hope the others drop points and every decision and rub of the green has to go our way. Put simply we have to play like champions for the remainder of the season - easy eh?

    Think this is over the top... Win our game in hand we are in the playoffs... We then just need to match the results of Portsmouth, Plymouth and Bradford. Will it be easy on current form, no. Is that really a Herculean effort?
  • At least three 6 pointers to come! Rotherham, Scunthorpe, Pompey being playoff rivals, with 2 further matches against automatic chasers

    I don't see why we would fear Rotherham or Scunthorpe, neither are in form at the moment. The Pompey match looks crucial though

    This. Win our 6 pointers and suddenly things will look very promising.
    Don't even think about losing them .... right, Bow?


    It's not even about how many points we might need.
    We just need 1 more point than the team in 7th place (or a better GD)

    In reality all we need to think about is 3 points at Northampton.
    And make sure we get them.

    Right now, nothing else matters.


    #onegameatatime

  • CAFCsayer said:

    addick05 said:

    It will take a Herculian effort to make it; so few games which means we cannot afford to lose more than a couple, We have to hope the others drop points and every decision and rub of the green has to go our way. Put simply we have to play like champions for the remainder of the season - easy eh?

    Think this is over the top... Win our game in hand we are in the playoffs... We then just need to match the results of Portsmouth, Plymouth and Bradford. Will it be easy on current form, no. Is that really a Herculean effort?
    The game in hand is away to Shrewsbury.
  • IF we go on a run now and win 6 from 9 with a draw or two in there - we would be favourites to win the playoffs. It’s all about momentum and a string of results like that would, IMO, make us very well placed. Big IF - if we beat Northampton and Rotherham I will start to believe...
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  • CAFCsayer said:

    addick05 said:

    It will take a Herculian effort to make it; so few games which means we cannot afford to lose more than a couple, We have to hope the others drop points and every decision and rub of the green has to go our way. Put simply we have to play like champions for the remainder of the season - easy eh?

    Think this is over the top... Win our game in hand we are in the playoffs... We then just need to match the results of Portsmouth, Plymouth and Bradford. Will it be easy on current form, no. Is that really a Herculean effort?
    The game in hand is away to Shrewsbury.
    And/or Wimbledon.

  • Never knew we only had 3 home games left!!

    This season (and life generally) is racing by
  • Nice one Oggy. Just put a ton on that happening. I will buy the club myself if it comes in.
  • I've already booked the Monday and Tuesday after the play-off final off work... Its going to be one hell of a bender
  • Honestly think Scunthorpe will be one of the teams that fall away and out of the top 6. I can’t see them getting in anyone now to give them a boost. They’ve played more than anyone else and have tough games yet too.

    Their remaining fixtures:
    Oxford away - need a win before getting sucked into relegation battle. Robinson first home game, think they’ll get a result.

    Plymouth home - big game and another six pointer. Plymouth are a good honest team. Another tough one.

    Wimbledon away - will desperately need the points in their battle of trying to survive.

    Charlton away - if we pick up any kind of positive result from the ones leading up to this one, I think we will beat them.

    Walsall home - should get 3 points in that one.

    MK Dons away - picked up form of late getting a few decent results, could need the points to make sure they don’t go down.

    Bradford home - fallen away and by this point could be a dead rubber.

    —————
    For us, if we play anything like we did on Saturday. Add in Mavididi, Dasilva, Kashi, Konsa, Magennis to the squad. Get behind the team and hopefully Bowyer is still in charge. I would expect something like this from the remaining 9.

    Home games:

    Rotherham (H) 02/04 - 3 points
    Scunthorpe (H) 14/04 - 3 points
    Blackburn (H) 28/04 - 1 point

    Away games:

    Northampton (A) 30/03 - 3 points
    Bristol Rovers (A) 07/04 - 1 point
    Wimbledon (A) 10/04 - 3 points
    Shrewsbury (A) 17/04 - 0 points
    Portsmouth (A) 21/04 - 1 point
    Rochdale (A) 05/05 - 3 points

    Very optimistic I know and understand. But 73 points and we actually finish 5th. Play Rotherham in the play-offs. Blackburn finish 3rd and play Peterborough who finish 6th.
  • 5 wins and 1 or 2 draws to get us to 71/72 points should be enough. A tall order considering our tough looking run-in with only 3 Home Games left, but definitely possible if we keep playing like we did on Saturday. If we get to the Play-offs anything is possible
  • And a rematch of the last time we played Blackburn at Wembley.....
  • edited March 26
    The calendar has made it a very exciting back end to the season. I think a minimum 17 points would be enough but that would have to involve those wins coming against Scunny, Pompey & Rotherham. 21 points would guarantee us top 6.

    One of my favorite Charlton matches in the last ten years was the home win against Dirty Leeds under Parky in the play off season. If we can get to Blackburn at home and still have the chance to make the play offs, I could expect a big turnout and huge day to start rebuilding the club (Dependant on Roland leaving).

    I think we will fall just too short, but hopefully we can build some proper momentum into next season.

    Cannot wait for Northampton on Friday. A huge must win match for both sides. We owe them for last years embarrassment. Plus Rotherham play Posh on Friday, so we could have a proper chance to bring Rotherham back in to the pack.
  • At least three 6 pointers to come! Rotherham, Scunthorpe, Pompey being playoff rivals, with 2 further matches against automatic chasers

    I don't see why we would fear Rotherham or Scunthorpe, neither are in form at the moment. The Pompey match looks crucial though

    THIS.

    It doesn't really matter how many points you accrue, its who you accrue them against. Much better beating Scunny & Pompey and losing to Northampton & AFC Wimbledon than beating Northampton & The Dons and losing to the 2 we are in direct competition against.

    I still see that there are 5 teams competing for the last 2 places (realistically I don't see us catching Rotherham even though we still have to play them). Us, Scunny, Peterborough, Plymouth & Pompey. Win our game in hand over the 3 teams above us (which for the sake if this argument I'm saying Wimbledon) then we are in the box seat. Beat Scunny & then we don't have to win the extra game in hand we have over them (Shrewsbury, which I've mentally written off as a loss). Then we just have to match them game for game.

    Looking at the stats in the OP I would say 72 points - so 17 points needed. 5 wins & 2 draws, allowing us to lose against Shrews & Blackburn . As long as the 5 wins include Scunny, Pompey & the game in hand against Wimbledon then I reckon we have a good chance.

    Bowyer reckons so too.
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Roland Out!