Attention: Please take a moment to consider our terms and conditions before posting.

Grand National 2018 Thread

1) DEFINITLY RED (IRE) 9 11-10 165 Phil & Julie Martin Brian Ellison

2) BRISTOL DE MAI (FR) 7 11-09 164 Simon Munir & Isaac Souede Nigel Twiston-Davies

3) EDWULF 9 11-09 164 J P McManus Joseph O'Brien IRE

4) OUTLANDER (IRE) 10 11-08 163 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE

5) MINELLA ROCCO (IRE) 8 11-07 162 J P McManus Jonjo O'Neill

6) BLAKLION 9 11-06 161 Simon Such & Gino Paletta Nigel Twiston-Davies

7) SUB LIEUTENANT (IRE) 9 11-05 160 Gigginstown House Stud Henry de Bromhead IRE

8) ANIBALE FLY (FR) 8 11-04 159 J P McManus Tony Martin IRE

9) THE LAST SAMURI (IRE) 10 11-04 159 Paul & Clare Rooney Kim Bailey

10) MALA BEACH (IRE) 10 11-03 158 Chris Jones Gordon Elliott IRE

11) VALSEUR LIDO (FR) 9 11-03 158 Gigginstown House Stud Henry de Bromhead IRE

12) AMERICAN (FR) 8 11-02 157 The Jago Family Partnership Harry Fry

13) TOTAL RECALL (IRE) 9 11-01 156 Slaneyville Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE

14) ALPHA DES OBEAUX (FR) 8 11-00 155 Gigginstown House Stud Mouse Morris IRE

15) GOLD PRESENT (IRE) 8 11-00 155 John & Barbara Cotton Nicky Henderson

16) NOBLE ENDEAVOR (IRE) 9 10-13 154 Chris Jones Gordon Elliott IRE

17) PERFECT CANDIDATE (IRE) 11 10-13 154 ISL Recruitment Fergal O'Brien

18) SIZING CODELCO (IRE) 9 10-13 154 Ann & Alan Potts Limited Colin Tizzard

19) CAUSE OF CAUSES (USA) 10 10-12 153 J P McManus Gordon Elliott IRE

20) SHANTOU FLYER (IRE) 8 10-12 153 Carl Hinchy Richard Hobson

21) CARLINGFORD LOUGH (IRE) 12 10-11 152 J P McManus John Kiely IRE

22) O O SEVEN (IRE) 8 10-11 152 Christopher Hanbury Nicky Henderson

23) TENOR NIVERNAIS (FR) 11 10-11 152 Boultbee Brooks Ltd Venetia Williams

24) GO CONQUER (IRE) 9 10-10 151 Paul & Clare Rooney Jonjo O'Neill

25) TRAFFIC FLUIDE (FR) 8 10-10 151 Galloping On The South Downs Partnership Gary Moore

26) VICENTE (FR) 9 10-10 151 Trevor Hemmings Paul Nicholls

27) ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS (FR) 8 10-09 150 Slaneyville Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE

28) RATHVINDEN (IRE) 10 10-09 150 Ronnie Bartlett Willie Mullins IRE

29) REGAL ENCORE (IRE) 10 10-09 150 J P McManus Anthony Honeyball

30) TIGER ROLL (IRE) 8 10-09 150 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE

31) VIEUX LION ROUGE (FR) 9 10-09 150 Prof Caroline Tisdall & John Gent David Pipe

32) A GENIE IN ABOTTLE (IRE) 7 10-08 149 Gigginstown House Stud Noel Meade IRE

33) AS DE MEE (FR) 8 10-08 149 The Stewart Family & Judi Dench Paul Nicholls

34) CHASE THE SPUD 10 10-08 149 Christine Banks Fergal O'Brien

35) ROCK THE KASBAH (IRE) 8 10-08 149 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs

36) SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT 10 10-08 149 Quona Thomson Sandy Thomson

37) WARRIORS TALE 9 10-08 149 Michelle & Dan Macdonald Paul Nicholls

38) BELLSHILL (IRE) 8 10-07 148 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE

39) FLYING ANGEL (IRE) 7 10-07 148 Rob Rexton Nigel Twiston-Davies

40) GAS LINE BOY (IRE) 12 10-07 148 The Three Graces Ian Williams

41) PLEASANT COMPANY (IRE) 10 10-07 148 Malcolm C Denmark Willie Mullins IRE

42) THE DUTCHMAN (IRE) 8 10-07 148 SprayClad UK Colin Tizzard

43) BEEVES (IRE) 11 10-06 147 Paul & Clare Rooney Jennie Candlish

44) SAINT ARE (FR) 12 10-06 147 David Fox Tom George

45) UCELLO CONTI (FR) 10 10-06 147 Simon Munir & Isaac Souede Gordon Elliott IRE

46) VYTA DU ROC (FR) 9 10-06 147 Simon Munir & Isaac Souede Nicky Henderson

47) CAROLE'S DESTRIER 10 10-05 146 Carole Skipworth Neil Mulholland

48) LONG HOUSE HALL (IRE) 10 10-05 146 Carl Hinchy Dan Skelton

49) POLIDAM (FR) 9 10-05 146 Simon Munir & Isaac Souede Willie Mullins IRE

50) RAZ DE MAREE (FR) 13 10-05 146 James Swan Gavin Cromwell IRE

51) ABOLITIONIST (IRE) 10 10-04 145 Mark Albon, John Provan & Chris Stedman Dr Richard Newland

52) BAIE DES ILES (FR) 7 10-04 145 Zorka Wentworth Ross O'Sullivan IRE

53) BUYWISE (IRE) 11 10-04 145 T Hywel Jones Evan Williams

54) CHILDRENS LIST (IRE) 8 10-04 145 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE

55) I JUST KNOW (IRE) 8 10-04 145 M B Scholey & the late R H Scholey Sue Smith

56) MAGGIO (FR) 13 10-04 145 Douglas Pryde/James Beaumont Patrick Griffin IRE

57) PENDRA (IRE) 10 10-04 145 J P McManus Charlie Longsdon

58) VIRGILIO (FR) 9 10-04 145 C J Edwards, D Futter, A H Rushworth Dan Skelton

59) CAPTAIN REDBEARD (IRE) 9 10-03 144 Stuart Coltherd Stuart Coltherd

60) HOUBLON DES OBEAUX (FR) 11 10-03 144 Mrs Julian Blackwell Venetia Williams

61) LORD WINDERMERE (IRE) 12 10-03 144 Dr Ronan Lambe Jim Culloty IRE

62) SILSOL (GER) 9 10-03 144 Michelle & Dan Macdonald Paul Nicholls

63) THIRD INTENTION (IRE) 11 10-03 144 Robert & Sarah Tizzard Colin Tizzard

64) THREE FACES WEST (IRE) 10 10-03 144 Paul & Clare Rooney Philip Hobbs

65) WILD WEST WIND (IRE) 9 10-03 144 Simon Clarke Tom George

66) BLESS THE WINGS (IRE) 13 10-02 143 Adrian Butler & S P O'Connor Gordon Elliott IRE

67) DOUBLE ROSS (IRE) 12 10-02 143 Options O Syndicate Nigel Twiston-Davies

68) FINAL NUDGE (IRE) 9 10-02 143 Corbett Stud David Dennis

69) MILANSBAR (IRE) 11 10-02 143 Robert Bothway Neil King

70) MORNING ASSEMBLY (IRE) 11 10-02 143 Clipper Logistics Group Ltd Pat Fahy IRE

71) DELUSIONOFGRANDEUR (IRE) 8 10-01 142 McGoldrick Racing 3 Sue Smith

72) ROAD TO RICHES (IRE) 11 10-01 142 Gigginstown House Stud Noel Meade IRE

73) THUNDER AND ROSES (IRE) 10 10-01 142 Gigginstown House Stud Mouse Morris IRE

74) SAMETEGAL (FR) 9 10-00 141 John & Barbara Cotton Paul Nicholls

75) VINTAGE CLOUDS (IRE) 8 10-00 141 Trevor Hemmings Sue Smith

76) WALK IN THE MILL (FR) 8 10-00 141 Baroness Harding Robert Walford

77) GENERAL PRINCIPLE (IRE) 9 9-12 139 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE

78) VIC DE TOUZAINE (FR) 9 9-12 139 Andrew Brooks & G Moore Venetia Williams

79) VIEUX MORVAN (FR) 9 9-12 139 M L Bloodstock Joseph O'Brien IRE

80) WOUNDED WARRIOR (IRE) 9 9-12 139 Gigginstown House Stud Noel Meade IRE

81) ARBRE DE VIE (FR) 8 9-11 138 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE

82) BALLYALTON (IRE) 11 9-11 138 John Westwood Ian Williams

83) BONNY KATE (IRE) 8 9-11 138 Patricia Hunt Noel Meade IRE

84) COGRY 9 9-11 138 Graham & Alison Jelley Nigel Twiston-Davies

85) MISSED APPROACH (IRE) 8 9-11 138 Alan & Andrew Turner Warren Greatrex

86) MYSTEREE (IRE) 10 9-11 138 Mrs Lynne Maclennan Michael Scudamore

87) SIR MANGAN (IRE) 10 9-11 138 Frank McAleavy Dan Skelton

88) SPLASH OF GINGE 10 9-11 138 John Neild Nigel Twiston-Davies

89) BRAQUEUR D'OR (FR) 7 9-10 137 Corsellis & Seyfried Paul Nicholls

90) MINELLA DADDY (IRE) 8 9-10 137 Roddy Owen & Paul Fullagar Peter Bowen

91) PAIROFBROWNEYES (IRE) 9 9-10 137 Fibbage Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE

92) RELENTLESS DREAMER (IRE) 9 9-10 137 Nigel Morris Rebecca Curtis

93) KNOCK HOUSE (IRE) 9 9-09 136 Tim Leslie Donald McCain

94) THE YOUNG MASTER 9 9-08 135 Mike Burbidge & The Old Masters Neil Mulholland

95) ALFIE SPINNER (IRE) 13 9-06 133 Alan Beard & Brian Beard Kerry Lee

96) HENRI PARRY MORGAN 10 9-06 133 Ednyfed & Elizabeth Morgan Peter Bowen

97) PHIL'S MAGIC (IRE) 8 9-06 133 Lyreen Syndicate Tony Martin IRE

98) BRAVISSIMO (FR) 7 9-05 132 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE

99) DANCING SHADOW (IRE) 9 9-05 132 The Dancing Shadows Victor Dartnall

100) ROGUE ANGEL (IRE) 10 9-05 132 Gigginstown House Stud Mouse Morris IRE

101) THEBARROWMAN (IRE) 8 9-04 131 D Keys Adrian Keatley IRE

102) OUT SAM 9 9-03 130 D Charlesworth Gordon Elliott IRE

103) KRACKATOA KING 10 9-00 127 JC Harrison Lee & T Howard Partnership Kerry Lee

104) GOODTOKNOW 10 8-13 126 Burling Lee MacEchern Nolan Potter Kerry Lee

105) POORMANS HILL (IRE) 7 NQ 120 V Caldwell/Mrs K Caldwell Gordon Elliott IRE
«13456722

Comments

  • Nope, still none the wiser. weight of the horse, the jockey, or the trainer ???
  • AP betting on the National is ruined given bookies only pay four places. It seems better to wait until the days leading up to the race when some bookies offer up to like 8 places or something stupid.

    See Gas Line Boy at 50s last year (5th); Vieux Lion Rouge at 66s 2016 (7th); even Tranquil Sea at 33s in 2015 (7th).

    Obviously, the likes of Vics Canvas placed higher up, but still - why minimise chances?
  • Great to see the thread back. What with Whose Rack and the Would'Ya thread making a welcome appearance this maybe take our minds off of takeover and football bollocks.

  • Anyone got a reliable long-range forecast?

    I have been informed that it will not rain on the day and in the week leading up to the race there will be a few light showers but nothing to suggest the ground will be anything other than good. This was on the internet so it must be true.

    https://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/liverpool/l7-9/daily-weather-forecast/330510?day=60

  • edited February 15
    That didn't take long.
    'The right profile' says National winner Newland (who bought him with the GN as the target).
    I agree and 10y-o ABOLITIONIST is first onto my slip at 33/1 (SkyBet NRNB 5 places 1/4)
    3rd in the Irish National last April behind Grade 1 winner Our Duke - beaten but clattering the last under a lady conditional probably cost him 2nd.
    From the family of quality 2-2.5 milers Merry Gale and Racing Demon but with Flemensfirth his sire and Roselier (2 GN and 5 Welsh or Scot Nat winners among his progeny) dam-sire, his pedigree screams stamina.
    Yet to face the GN fences but most GN winners haven't beforehand.
    Completed all 19 chases to date, making the frame in all 9 at 3m+ (won or <5L in 8 of them), including last season 2nd in the Troytown (behind Empire Of Dirt) and winning the Leinster National impressively. The way he finishes his races further suggests he may be at his best at well beyond 3m.
    Handles any ground (raced all year round until 2016).
    OR 145 for the GN (same mark as at Fairyhouse), currently meaning 10.04. No worries if that were up to 4lb higher.
    51st on the card so highly likely to make the cut but SkyBet are NRNB.
    More anon.
  • Loving the input to this thread Peanuts.
  • A gambling question if people don’t mind my naivety please.

    Let’s say I put some money on PM’s selection above at 33’s now. Then closer to the race it is backed into 20’s, is there a way I can arbitrage and de-risk my placed bet by using one of the exchanges, say Betfair, to lay off the risk and make a guaranteed return...?

    If the answer is yes (which I think it is but my little brain struggles to think through permutations) then a) PM, do you think your tip will be backed heavily going forwards-maybe that is an impossible question but would be interested in your thoughts and b) can anyone go on Betfair and lay a bet or do you need a large account to do so?

    Thanks.
  • Sponsored links:


  • Betfair exchange you can achieve all of what you ask
  • Abolitionist is one that leapt off page at me too. Backed him throughout last season, and interesting that he's moved to Newland yard. Though i do like Holden/Blackmore as a trainer jockey combo!

    Concern at lack of a recent run though?
  • A gambling question if people don’t mind my naivety please.

    Let’s say I put some money on PM’s selection above at 33’s now. Then closer to the race it is backed into 20’s, is there a way I can arbitrage and de-risk my placed bet by using one of the exchanges, say Betfair, to lay off the risk and make a guaranteed return...?

    If the answer is yes (which I think it is but my little brain struggles to think through permutations) then a) PM, do you think your tip will be backed heavily going forwards-maybe that is an impossible question but would be interested in your thoughts and b) can anyone go on Betfair and lay a bet or do you need a large account to do so?

    Thanks.

    Yeah you can lay on betfair. But it's quite capital intensive. For instance, if you put 100 ew on horse at 33s and want to lay 100 back in win market at say 20/1 on the day, you'll need 2k in your betfair sccount to cover liability. You can't just tell betfair you've got the offsetting bet elsewhere!

    You'd also need to lay place part in seperate market if you wanted to.
  • I haven’t looked at this at much length but I’ll be having an each way bet on Regal Encore.
    Currently 50s with Skybet.
  • Abolitionist is one that leapt off page at me too. Backed him throughout last season, and interesting that he's moved to Newland yard. Though i do like Holden/Blackmore as a trainer jockey combo!

    Concern at lack of a recent run though?

    Agreed but he's due out at the weekend in a 3m handicap hurdle and plenty of time for another spin before Aintree. He only arrived with Newland 2 weeks ago.
  • Ah hadn't seen that. All systems go then!
  • I am a big fan of Seeyouatmidnight and have backed it at 33/1 (NRNB).
  • edited February 15

    A gambling question if people don’t mind my naivety please.

    Let’s say I put some money on PM’s selection above at 33’s now. Then closer to the race it is backed into 20’s, is there a way I can arbitrage and de-risk my placed bet by using one of the exchanges, say Betfair, to lay off the risk and make a guaranteed return...?

    If the answer is yes (which I think it is but my little brain struggles to think through permutations) then a) PM, do you think your tip will be backed heavily going forwards-maybe that is an impossible question but would be interested in your thoughts and b) can anyone go on Betfair and lay a bet or do you need a large account to do so?

    Thanks.

    Not sure if you wanted PM to answer this (the first para suggests that this is an open question whereas the second refers to PM directly) but I will do so anyway - I worked for over a decade in the horse racing department at Betfair.

    Anyone can open an account with Betfair so yes you will be able to arb should your selection shorten - to the extent that you could minimise your exposure or have a risk free bet by getting rid of all of your stake. You could possibly even have an "all green" book by laying enough back so you are guaranteed a win come what may.

    The issue with doing so with the Grand National book on an exchange is that the market might not move as quickly or as far as you would like. The GN is so competitive as a race and exchange prices might be more competitive than bookmakers by virtue of the fact that a lot of bookies will be going "non runner no bet" (a couple are already) whereas the exchange book will never become that - so backers could lose their money without even getting a run on the exchange and for that reason layers can afford to offer more attractive prices generally speaking.

    If you are really clever (and there is a degree of luck) you might be able to back a horse with a bookmaker who is offering "non runner no bet" (NRNB) and then lay it off at shorter on Betfair- if the horse doesn't run you get your money back with the bookie and also win with the lay on Betfair. However, as explained, you will need a decent bank to lay without having already backed the selection on Betfair e.g. £200 to lay a tenner @ 21 (20/1). But if you lay multiple selections on Betfair then your exposure will be reduced by each lay. If you have already backed that selection on Betfair then you only need that backers stake by way of exposure e.g. back at 21 for £10 and then lay at 14 means that you lose nothing should anything else win the race but that you win £70 (less commission) should your horse be first.

    Where backing and laying really works is when you are on the right side of a "talking horse" - one that you back before it hacks up in one of its prep races. For example, had you managed to back Samcro at 17 (16/1) for £10 in the Ballymore Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham you could now be in the position where you could have layed enough at 1.8 (4/5) that you would win £80 whatever the outcome of the race. Unfortunately, because of its competitive nature, you won't get such a dramatic swing on a runner in the GN (unless you are betting in running - see below) but it is possible for a horse to be backed at say 40 and it to end up at say 10 prior to the market being suspended.

    One final thing to point out - on Betfair the antepost market is separate from the day of the race market. The former will be suspended once the final declarations are known and the day of the race market is set up i.e. 48 hours before the race. This is because of the different rules so far as NRNB is concerned so you won't be able to directly use your exposure on the original market when laying in the latter. However, it doesn't prevent you from laying in the day of the race market and you might even consider putting up a lay "keep" bet meaning that you want your lay bet to stand once the race is off so if your horse does go short you might get matched at the price you wanted to lay it at in running.

    Hope this helps.
    Cheers AA. A definitive explanation from a race-betting guru if ever there were one.

    A gambling question if people don’t mind my naivety please.

    Let’s say I put some money on PM’s selection above at 33’s now. Then closer to the race it is backed into 20’s, is there a way I can arbitrage and de-risk my placed bet by using one of the exchanges, say Betfair, to lay off the risk and make a guaranteed return...?

    If the answer is yes (which I think it is but my little brain struggles to think through permutations) then a) PM, do you think your tip will be backed heavily going forwards-maybe that is an impossible question but would be interested in your thoughts and b) can anyone go on Betfair and lay a bet or do you need a large account to do so?

    Thanks.

    My tips only occasionally become "talking horses" Athletico.
    As a dyed-in-the-wool value-seeking, each-way punter, like @PolzeathNick (but with a single-race anorak-like focus in contrast to his very impressive broader approach), what I love about the GN is that there is often extra value in the prices of lesser-fancied runners because of the hype over (and therefore "too short" prices for) more prominent, usually higher-rated ones (most ratings being derived from chases run at well less than 4m of course).
    Rocketing prize-money in recent years and compression of the handicap (the GN is the only race in which the handicapper can alter the prevailing Ratings for the race, which he has done in previous years [less so this one] by knocking some weight off the highest-rated entrants with the aim of encouraging "better quality" runners) has accentuated this by attracting more top 3-milers to be entered.
    So, almost by definition, my fancies don't tend to become a hot thing unless they go and win a big prep race. The last big market-mover was Don't Push It in 2010 [10/1 jt-fav winner] but he was still 80s on Betfair a fortnight before the race and it was AP picking him as his ride that caused the stampede .................I'm sure he'd seen my analysis though :wink:
    My percentage approach is to have a portfolio of horses (typically 4) that I want running for me at the prices I've got and, personally, I wouldn't lay off the risk even if the chance arose. It's served me well over the years but there's more than one way to skin a bookie :smiley: (sorry Bob)
  • Thanks for returning to us @PeanutsMolloy!
  • Sponsored links:


  • I haven’t looked at this at much length but I’ll be having an each way bet on Regal Encore.
    Currently 50s with Skybet.

    I am a big fan of Seeyouatmidnight and have backed it at 33/1 (NRNB).

    Nice one gents. Both definitely on the radar screen.
  • One thing that struck me when looking at the market this year was whether everyone seems to have forgotten that this is still a handicap?!
  • One thing that struck me when looking at the market this year was whether everyone seems to have forgotten that this is still a handicap?!

    A bloody difficult one too given that it is 10/1 the field and 20/1 bar two!
  • One thing that struck me when looking at the market this year was whether everyone seems to have forgotten that this is still a handicap?!

    A bloody difficult one too given that it is 10/1 the field and 20/1 bar two!
    First angle that struck me was how highly rated those at the front of the market are - 161,156,159,153,165,155,162. You've obviously got to assess each horse on their merits in relation to their mark but only Many Clouds and Neptune Collonges have won off those sort of marks and not sure Blaklion, Definitly Red and The Last Samuri are in that bracket.

    Got to be looking at finding something below 150, that's 8-11yo and stays. From looks of it they will be overpriced!!!
  • One thing that struck me when looking at the market this year was whether everyone seems to have forgotten that this is still a handicap?!

    A bloody difficult one too given that it is 10/1 the field and 20/1 bar two!
    First angle that struck me was how highly rated those at the front of the market are - 161,156,159,153,165,155,162. You've obviously got to assess each horse on their merits in relation to their mark but only Many Clouds and Neptune Collonges have won off those sort of marks and not sure Blaklion, Definitly Red and The Last Samuri are in that bracket.

    Got to be looking at finding something below 150, that's 8-11yo and stays. From looks of it they will be overpriced!!!

    I am a big fan of Seeyouatmidnight and have backed it at 33/1 (NRNB).

    Seeyouatmidnight - rated 149 currently on 10-8, 3rd in the Scottish National and a 10 year old. Beat Bristol De Mai off level weights by 12l and also has defeated Blaklion in receipt of 3lbs by more than 3 lengths.

    It won't be 33/1 come the day if it runs and if it doesn't then NRNB applies.
  • One thing that struck me when looking at the market this year was whether everyone seems to have forgotten that this is still a handicap?!

    A bloody difficult one too given that it is 10/1 the field and 20/1 bar two!
    First angle that struck me was how highly rated those at the front of the market are - 161,156,159,153,165,155,162. You've obviously got to assess each horse on their merits in relation to their mark but only Many Clouds and Neptune Collonges have won off those sort of marks and not sure Blaklion, Definitly Red and The Last Samuri are in that bracket.

    Got to be looking at finding something below 150, that's 8-11yo and stays. From looks of it they will be overpriced!!!
    The only caveat I'd add PN is that there is a premium for being a course-lover, especially for each-way punters. Price is key, of course.
    Blaklion's too short and I don't place any stock in NTD's (vaguely sacrilegious IMHO) Red Rum analogy and the "we'll ride him differently" blah blah - he didn't get home on decent ground with 11.01 and, while he may run another big one being held-up, there'll be no cigar with 11.06+).
    However, while he won't be one of my team, there are much worse e/w candidates than The Last Samuri at 25s (still only a 10y-o). Like Raz De Maree, he was spooked last year when being stuck in the stupid tunnel they now have to go through to get to the track. No chance with Blakion at the weights in the Becher but it confirmed he's adept over the fences and he should be there or thereabouts off the same OR159 - though also unlikely to win. Has an interesting prep lined up in the Festival XC.
  • ... When it comes to horse racing betting, the rest of us are all just talking monkeys to @PolzeathNick , @PeanutsMolloy and @Addick Addict , aren't we?
  • One thing that struck me when looking at the market this year was whether everyone seems to have forgotten that this is still a handicap?!

    A bloody difficult one too given that it is 10/1 the field and 20/1 bar two!
    First angle that struck me was how highly rated those at the front of the market are - 161,156,159,153,165,155,162. You've obviously got to assess each horse on their merits in relation to their mark but only Many Clouds and Neptune Collonges have won off those sort of marks and not sure Blaklion, Definitly Red and The Last Samuri are in that bracket.

    Got to be looking at finding something below 150, that's 8-11yo and stays. From looks of it they will be overpriced!!!
    The only caveat I'd add PN is that there is a premium for being a course-lover, especially for each-way punters. Price is key, of course.
    Blaklion's too short and I don't place any stock in NTD's (vaguely sacrilegious IMHO) Red Rum analogy and the "we'll ride him differently" blah blah - he didn't get home on decent ground with 11.01 and, while he may run another big one being held-up, there'll be no cigar with 11.06+).
    However, while he won't be one of my team, there are much worse e/w candidates than The Last Samuri at 25s (still only a 10y-o). Like Raz De Maree, he was spooked last year when being stuck in the stupid tunnel they now have to go through to get to the track. No chance with Blakion at the weights in the Becher but it confirmed he's adept over the fences and he should be there or thereabouts off the same OR159 - though also unlikely to win. Has an interesting prep lined up in the Festival XC.
    Thought I read that they were going to go straight there with Last Samuri, but maybe wrong!

    Having said what I did earlier, I'm struggling to fin anything to get too excited with lower down in the weights! I love Vicente but worry about his jumping and sounds like they are going to go for Scottish National again. Interesting that Hemmings has bought Warrior's Tale and he's one on my horizon at the moment. Probably best to let dust settle over the next few weeks and get extra places - though I see Paddy Power are already 1/5 first 6.

  • One thing that struck me when looking at the market this year was whether everyone seems to have forgotten that this is still a handicap?!

    A bloody difficult one too given that it is 10/1 the field and 20/1 bar two!
    First angle that struck me was how highly rated those at the front of the market are - 161,156,159,153,165,155,162. You've obviously got to assess each horse on their merits in relation to their mark but only Many Clouds and Neptune Collonges have won off those sort of marks and not sure Blaklion, Definitly Red and The Last Samuri are in that bracket.

    Got to be looking at finding something below 150, that's 8-11yo and stays. From looks of it they will be overpriced!!!

    I am a big fan of Seeyouatmidnight and have backed it at 33/1 (NRNB).

    Seeyouatmidnight - rated 149 currently on 10-8, 3rd in the Scottish National and a 10 year old. Beat Bristol De Mai off level weights by 12l and also has defeated Blaklion in receipt of 3lbs by more than 3 lengths.

    It won't be 33/1 come the day if it runs and if it doesn't then NRNB applies.
    Think he's been off with a tendon injury which would ring alarm bells for me personally! But if back he does have a nice profile for it agreed
Sign In or Register to comment.

Roland Out!