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French elections

A very important one for Europe, and first round results due tonight. Another shock election result for anti-Europe/anti-immigration Le Pen, or a victory for the moderates Macron or Fillon?
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Comments

  • how many rounds are there then?
  • Top two go to final round - early results say it will be between Macron and Le Pen.
  • image

    The "nightmare" scenario of Le Pen against Melenchon has been avoided it seems. Macron will win the second round now
  • Since this is the htread for further discussion, I'd like to paste what I wrote on the other thread.

    If that is the final figure for Le Pen, I am delighted because it would represent a lower figure than her opinion polls for most of this year. In March she was above 26%, and the graph has been downward ever since.

    So any "benefit" from Thursday's attack did not materialise.

    I am cautiously pleased, as I was after the recent Dutch result, and the Austrian result back in September, as well as fading AfD in Germany.
  • Round 2 is on 7 May 2017. Seems a strange way of doing things for all its faults I do prefer FPTP.
  • image

    The "nightmare" scenario of Le Pen against Melenchon has been avoided it seems. Macron will win the second round now

    Melenchon nightmare?
  • Very sad that such a high amount voted for Le Pen, but Macron will surely win through the combined anti-fascist vote.
  • Have we imploded yet?
  • Which one married their drama teacher?
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  • edited April 2017

    Since this is the htread for further discussion, I'd like to paste what I wrote on the other thread.

    If that is the final figure for Le Pen, I am delighted because it would represent a lower figure than her opinion polls for most of this year. In March she was above 26%, and the graph has been downward ever since.

    So any "benefit" from Thursday's attack did not materialise.

    I am cautiously pleased, as I was after the recent Dutch result, and the Austrian result back in September, as well as fading AfD in Germany.

    Right, let's play a game of SDAddick attempts to interpret election data for an election he doesn't really understand in a country he doesn't really understand, and then compare it hamfistedly to the US election which has numerous key differences. What could go wrong?

    First off, some proper anorak shit from 538's Harry Enten (the Jew my father wishes I was):
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-french-election-is-way-too-close-to-call/

    So if those numbers hold, Le Pen pretty much hit her pre-election numbers of 22%. Prague, as you say, the trend is downward, especially on the heels of a terrorist attack, which is largely good.

    What Trump (and he is now the benchmark for the rest of these movements/candidates/parties) did that helped to put him over the top was, in the general election, expand beyond his base and turn out 90%+ of Republicans and Republican leaning Independents. Those will be the large number of people who disapprove/don't like him, but still voted for him (worth noting that more Clinton voters voted FOR her, whereas more Trump voters voted AGAINST Clinton). Many of those people "came home" in the final month or so of the election, which is why the race "broke" so late and so narrowly*.

    What I expect will be different here is that Le Pen and these other far right nationalists move just do not have that base to draw from--conservative leaning voters willing to unite behind whoever the conservative is (even if it's far, far further to the right than they're used to). Because it's not a binary political party system, she, and others, need to woo voters from other candidates/parties. And as Harry Enten points out, there really isn't anything to indicate she can do that in anywhere near the numbers she'd need.

    These populist, nationalists movement, for as much as we call them "populist," aren't actually THAT popular. They're targeted at a certain section of the population, and in electoral and overall terms, that number isn't really that high. When you think of the term populist, you think of political movements or figures that are transformative and popular, like Hugo Chavez or Fidel Castro (who, for all their faults, had very large public support, and if you say they didn't then they would like to have a word). In modern political parlance, it seems to means "something that is nationalist and applies to anywhere from 25-35%ish, max, of the electorate."

    Unless Macron (side note, underrated maker of Charlton kits) has suicided people in the past or has been highly irresponsible with his email accounts, he should be France's next PM.

    *I make a lot of statistical claims in there from months of having read analysis of election numbers, I'll try to find a source or two that back that up without having to link to 17 different articles.
  • @i_b_b_o_r_g are you allowed to vote in these?
  • IA said:

    France is a strange country. These are the last two, but how were they allowed to run for office?

    image

    v

    image

    Such an awful gag that I laughed so, so hard at :)
  • cabbles said:

    @i_b_b_o_r_g are you allowed to vote in these?

    I think you need French citizenship mate, but I've not looked into it
    Unusual for you.
    Superb.
  • Walked straight into that didn't I
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  • cabbles said:

    @i_b_b_o_r_g are you allowed to vote in these?

    I think you need French citizenship mate, but I've not looked into it
    I've asked my uncle as he voted. He lives in Montpellier, but I think as he has been living there for many years, he registered to become a French citizen so now maybe he has dual nationality.



  • A new Harris survey saw Macron winning the runoff by 64 percent to 36, and an Ipsos/Sopra Steria poll gave a similar result.
  • SDAddick said:

    Since this is the htread for further discussion, I'd like to paste what I wrote on the other thread.

    If that is the final figure for Le Pen, I am delighted because it would represent a lower figure than her opinion polls for most of this year. In March she was above 26%, and the graph has been downward ever since.

    So any "benefit" from Thursday's attack did not materialise.

    I am cautiously pleased, as I was after the recent Dutch result, and the Austrian result back in September, as well as fading AfD in Germany.

    Right, let's play a game of SDAddick attempts to interpret election data for an election he doesn't really understand in a country he doesn't really understand, and then compare it hamfistedly to the US election which has numerous key differences. What could go wrong?

    First off, some proper anorak shit from 538's Harry Enten (the Jew my father wishes I was):
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-french-election-is-way-too-close-to-call/

    So if those numbers hold, Le Pen pretty much hit her pre-election numbers of 22%. Prague, as you say, the trend is downward, especially on the heels of a terrorist attack, which is largely good.

    What Trump (and he is now the benchmark for the rest of these movements/candidates/parties) did that helped to put him over the top was, in the general election, expand beyond his base and turn out 90%+ of Republicans and Republican leaning Independents. Those will be the large number of people who disapprove/don't like him, but still voted for him (worth noting that more Clinton voters voted FOR her, whereas more Trump voters voted AGAINST Clinton). Many of those people "came home" in the final month or so of the election, which is why the race "broke" so late and so narrowly*.

    What I expect will be different here is that Le Pen and these other far right nationalists move just do not have that base to draw from--conservative leaning voters willing to unite behind whoever the conservative is (even if it's far, far further to the right than they're used to). Because it's not a binary political party system, she, and others, need to woo voters from other candidates/parties. And as Harry Enten points out, there really isn't anything to indicate she can do that in anywhere near the numbers she'd need.

    These populist, nationalists movement, for as much as we call them "populist," aren't actually THAT popular. They're targeted at a certain section of the population, and in electoral and overall terms, that number isn't really that high. When you think of the term populist, you think of political movements or figures that are transformative and popular, like Hugo Chavez or Fidel Castro (who, for all their faults, had very large public support, and if you say they didn't then they would like to have a word). In modern political parlance, it seems to means "something that is nationalist and applies to anywhere from 25-35%ish, max, of the electorate."

    Unless Macron (side note, underrated maker of Charlton kits) has suicided people in the past or has been highly irresponsible with his email accounts, he should be France's next PM.

    *I make a lot of statistical claims in there from months of having read analysis of election numbers, I'll try to find a source or two that back that up without having to link to 17 different articles.
    Président, not PM, otherwise sound reasoning, especially the bit about 'populist' not actually being that popular.
  • edited April 2017
    Le Pen has announced that she's 'stepping down' as leader of the National Front .. quite remarkable, although the presidential election is ostensibly to elect a person and not a party, especially with these two 'outsiders'

    I suspect a ruse, an attempt to portray herself as not as nasty and radical as the leader of the NF .. whatever the result, France is in a political mess

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39696861
  • ...and yet she's still standing in the next round, unique
  • edited April 2017

    Le Pen has announced that she's 'stepping down' as leader of the National Front .. quite remarkable, although the presidential election is ostensibly to elect a person and not a party, especially with these two 'outsiders'

    I suspect a ruse, an attempt to portray herself as not as nasty and radical as the leader of the NF .. whatever the result, France is in a political mess

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39696861

    I give the French people a bit more credit than falling for a 'look, I'm not the leader of the National Front'. She realises the brand is toxic for the majority, but she is the NF.
  • edited April 2017
    Macron is the archetypal demigogue of modern politics. His ridiculous personal biography only including his grandma in it because she'd been working class in her schooldays, is the first carefully constructed personal hagiography. His arrogance for engage and smarm, shows up his utter misunderstanding of the non-bourgeoise.

    The irony is that much of white provincial France would do better socially under Le Pen than Macron, not the man who claims to be of them from Amiens. He is pro EU, which of course underwrites huge swathes of provincial France, but few of them are able to accept that.

    Macron's the man to cynically rob the liberal ideal for Rostchild and his banking friends. Would I vote for him against Le Pen? Yes. Would I vote for his awful En Marche party? No. His autocratic tendencies will attempt to un-democratically dominate legislation and the legislative bodies. The French bourgeois will only support when it pays them, if he doesn't play to them he'll be one term. Hence it'll all be for them.
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