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The General Election - June 8th 2017

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    In an ideal world Jezza would remove his mask after the vote tomorrow to reveal someone who looks like George Clooney and has the charisma of Obama. Or he's replaced overnight by someone of that ilk.

    Sadly neither are going to happen so we are left with a non-functioning divided opposition, desperately trying to seem like they support Brexit but fooling no one which will get easily beaten whilst Corbyn remains.

    The Tories have just got themselves another couple of years of guaranteed government but by that time implications of Brexit will be increasingly clear to all so are less likely to be in power until 2025 as a result.

    I still maintain the Tories care far, far less about what's good for the country than what's good for the party.

    Always have done (why else did Cameron promise a referendum than to keep the threat of UKIP at bay?), always will do.
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    Tories will win by a landslide, labour will be wiped out and wake up to the fact that corbyn is a good protest politician like Dennis Skinner but in no way is capable of leading the country, sadly there are many also in other parties that fit that vein.

    It's only a hardcore of activists who want Corbyn as the leader, the majority of the MPs don't
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    I welcome the news. It is the last chance for the country to stop the disaster that is Brexit. I am not concerned about the national opinion polls. Labour won't lose any seats in London or Scotland. Any sensible Labour voter in the South West is going to vote Liberal Democrat. Any sensible Lib Dem voter in the North will vote Labour. It will be interesting to see how the opinion polls move over the next few weeks in those seats with traditionally high Lib Dem votes.

    You do realise that outside the urban trendy areas, the North of England was heavily pro Brexit?
    You mean the areas where many people live, presumably.
    An awful lot of people live in the "blue" areas as well...

    image
    Research suggests that two thirds of 2015 Labour voters voted Remain - and the difference in that proportion wasn't that great north to south.

    The reason there were large Leave majorities in some traditional Labour areas is that a substantial minority of Labour voters were joined by non-voters, Tories and others, not because the Labour vote as a whole in those areas voted majority Leave.

    As for a geographical map, a similar look at even the 1997 GE would suggest the Tories won it, because they tend to represent large, less densely populated, constituencies.

    I think this election will play out badly for Labour because Jeremy Corbyn lacks credibility as a potential PM - and related to that the party's message on Brexit is confused and confusing. But to be fair it's also more difficult for Labour to have a simple position on it than it is for the Lib Dems.

    Remember the Tories were left with 146 seats in 1997. I find it hard to see even a Corbyn-led Labour party doing worse than that simply in terms of the electoral make-up of England and Wales, but one way or another I expect there will be surprises.
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    stonemuse said:

    seth plum said:

    I suppose there is a desire from some to vote Nationalist, either for the SNP or UKIP (which purport to be very different...hmmn) and I can only assume that those of a nationalist persuasion are happy to do so for some reason, and others will vote nationalist because they can't bring themselves to vote for one of the others.
    I find it really hard to understand though, this global movement towards some idealised view of the world. Great Britain, making America great again, Le Pen inviting people to vote for the Frenchness of the French, Sinn Fein, the Scots, the idea of UK independence and sovereignty and so on.
    To me nationalists seem to want ti stick a pin into a moment from history when they felt their country was great. For the Scots it would be when Mel Gibson took them to the world cup in Argentina sporting Kilts and sporrens, for the English maybe Victorian Britain, or the world wars, maybe for Americans or Australians it would be when white settlers were practicing genocide on an industrial scale against native peoples, maybe for the French it would be the age of the Guillotine or Napoleon. My overall point is that what one person thinks of as their 'nation', good old British values and all that, will differ from what another person thinks of as their nation. Indeed in Fascist Germany they took the notion of being a proper German to a whole new level.
    I get the romantic yearning for a notion that has never really existed in terms of ones perceived 'nation'. However I really don't see how nationalism of any sort can speak to the reality of our present interconnected Global Village, sharing the same air and water in this part of the galaxy, where indeed there certainly ought to be more things that unite us than divide us.

    I'm not going to make too much comment but Great Britain is not exactly a new concept and you may struggle to find anyone that yearns for a return to world wars!
    Can you help me out and explain why people yearn for Nationalism so much?
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    I welcome the news. It is the last chance for the country to stop the disaster that is Brexit. I am not concerned about the national opinion polls. Labour won't lose any seats in London or Scotland. Any sensible Labour voter in the South West is going to vote Liberal Democrat. Any sensible Lib Dem voter in the North will vote Labour. It will be interesting to see how the opinion polls move over the next few weeks in those seats with traditionally high Lib Dem votes.

    You do realise that outside the urban trendy areas, the North of England was heavily pro Brexit?
    Yes, but about a million of those Brexit voters have died since the referendum vote. Actually, I have no idea how many have died, but it will be a lot more than the number of Remain voters who have died.
    You are forgetting that the UK demographics mean that the grey majority will have increased regardless of the death rate.
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    seth plum said:

    stonemuse said:

    seth plum said:

    I suppose there is a desire from some to vote Nationalist, either for the SNP or UKIP (which purport to be very different...hmmn) and I can only assume that those of a nationalist persuasion are happy to do so for some reason, and others will vote nationalist because they can't bring themselves to vote for one of the others.
    I find it really hard to understand though, this global movement towards some idealised view of the world. Great Britain, making America great again, Le Pen inviting people to vote for the Frenchness of the French, Sinn Fein, the Scots, the idea of UK independence and sovereignty and so on.
    To me nationalists seem to want ti stick a pin into a moment from history when they felt their country was great. For the Scots it would be when Mel Gibson took them to the world cup in Argentina sporting Kilts and sporrens, for the English maybe Victorian Britain, or the world wars, maybe for Americans or Australians it would be when white settlers were practicing genocide on an industrial scale against native peoples, maybe for the French it would be the age of the Guillotine or Napoleon. My overall point is that what one person thinks of as their 'nation', good old British values and all that, will differ from what another person thinks of as their nation. Indeed in Fascist Germany they took the notion of being a proper German to a whole new level.
    I get the romantic yearning for a notion that has never really existed in terms of ones perceived 'nation'. However I really don't see how nationalism of any sort can speak to the reality of our present interconnected Global Village, sharing the same air and water in this part of the galaxy, where indeed there certainly ought to be more things that unite us than divide us.

    I'm not going to make too much comment but Great Britain is not exactly a new concept and you may struggle to find anyone that yearns for a return to world wars!
    Can you help me out and explain why people yearn for Nationalism so much?
    Just like any other ideology, they want a one-size fits all theory that explains the world and reorders it for the better.
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    seth plum said:

    stonemuse said:

    seth plum said:

    I suppose there is a desire from some to vote Nationalist, either for the SNP or UKIP (which purport to be very different...hmmn) and I can only assume that those of a nationalist persuasion are happy to do so for some reason, and others will vote nationalist because they can't bring themselves to vote for one of the others.
    I find it really hard to understand though, this global movement towards some idealised view of the world. Great Britain, making America great again, Le Pen inviting people to vote for the Frenchness of the French, Sinn Fein, the Scots, the idea of UK independence and sovereignty and so on.
    To me nationalists seem to want ti stick a pin into a moment from history when they felt their country was great. For the Scots it would be when Mel Gibson took them to the world cup in Argentina sporting Kilts and sporrens, for the English maybe Victorian Britain, or the world wars, maybe for Americans or Australians it would be when white settlers were practicing genocide on an industrial scale against native peoples, maybe for the French it would be the age of the Guillotine or Napoleon. My overall point is that what one person thinks of as their 'nation', good old British values and all that, will differ from what another person thinks of as their nation. Indeed in Fascist Germany they took the notion of being a proper German to a whole new level.
    I get the romantic yearning for a notion that has never really existed in terms of ones perceived 'nation'. However I really don't see how nationalism of any sort can speak to the reality of our present interconnected Global Village, sharing the same air and water in this part of the galaxy, where indeed there certainly ought to be more things that unite us than divide us.

    I'm not going to make too much comment but Great Britain is not exactly a new concept and you may struggle to find anyone that yearns for a return to world wars!
    Can you help me out and explain why people yearn for Nationalism so much?
    Ask the Nationalists, I am the son of an immigrant so have no idea.

    I just wished to make the valid comments that I did.
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    Great news. Corbyn is a lame duck - left wing MP in the mould of Michael Foot - and we know how the 1983 election went.

    up the blues !!!!!!
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    edited April 2017
    Jodaius said:

    Huskaris said:

    bobmunro said:

    Huskaris said:

    Conservatives and Labour both "pro Brexit"...

    Lib Dems only credible English party who are opposing Brexit...

    Conservatives and Labour are both pro Remain (unless they have both done u-turns from the referendum campaign) but are both pro respecting the will of the people. Big difference.
    They were pro remain, they are now, based on the will of the people, pro Brexit.

    Let me put it this way then, the Lib Dems are the only big party in England that don't care about democracy.
    I don't get this.

    Part of democracy is being able to air opposing views. It's not just a silent acceptance of the will of the (marginal) majority.

    IF the Lib Dems fight a general election on a Remain ticket, and win (big if) - will they still be anti-democratic?

    Elections are held every few years because 'the will of the people' changes in response to internal and external events. Why is it that some people think that a referendum result can never again be questioned (or the question put again)?
    Because of the nature of the referendum. Changing a political party every few years isn't much of an issue, negotiating your way in and out of the EU every few years is. Hence whey the last time we had one on it was over 40 years ago. To draw parallels with something as simple as an election is a bit simplistic...
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    bobmunro said:

    Huskaris said:

    Conservatives and Labour both "pro Brexit"...

    Lib Dems only credible English party who are opposing Brexit...

    Conservatives and Labour are both pro Remain (unless they have both done u-turns from the referendum campaign) but are both pro respecting the will of the people. Big difference.
    Bob - did you mean they have to be seen to be respecting the will of the people?
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    bobmunro said:

    Huskaris said:

    Conservatives and Labour both "pro Brexit"...

    Lib Dems only credible English party who are opposing Brexit...

    Conservatives and Labour are both pro Remain (unless they have both done u-turns from the referendum campaign) but are both pro respecting the will of the people. Big difference.
    Bob - did you mean they have to be seen to be respecting the will of the people?
    They are politicians - it's all about perceptions!!
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    stonemuse said:

    seth plum said:

    I suppose there is a desire from some to vote Nationalist, either for the SNP or UKIP (which purport to be very different...hmmn) and I can only assume that those of a nationalist persuasion are happy to do so for some reason, and others will vote nationalist because they can't bring themselves to vote for one of the others.
    I find it really hard to understand though, this global movement towards some idealised view of the world. Great Britain, making America great again, Le Pen inviting people to vote for the Frenchness of the French, Sinn Fein, the Scots, the idea of UK independence and sovereignty and so on.
    To me nationalists seem to want ti stick a pin into a moment from history when they felt their country was great. For the Scots it would be when Mel Gibson took them to the world cup in Argentina sporting Kilts and sporrens, for the English maybe Victorian Britain, or the world wars, maybe for Americans or Australians it would be when white settlers were practicing genocide on an industrial scale against native peoples, maybe for the French it would be the age of the Guillotine or Napoleon. My overall point is that what one person thinks of as their 'nation', good old British values and all that, will differ from what another person thinks of as their nation. Indeed in Fascist Germany they took the notion of being a proper German to a whole new level.
    I get the romantic yearning for a notion that has never really existed in terms of ones perceived 'nation'. However I really don't see how nationalism of any sort can speak to the reality of our present interconnected Global Village, sharing the same air and water in this part of the galaxy, where indeed there certainly ought to be more things that unite us than divide us.

    I'm not going to make too much comment but Great Britain is not exactly a new concept and you may struggle to find anyone that yearns for a return to world wars!
    Yes, but it is just a bit of rhetoric. Great in this sense means big - and it comes from a translation of the French - Grande Bretagne as opposed to Bretagne, which is Brittany. We're Big Britain and Brittany is
    effectively Little Britain.

    So all this "make Britain great again" is about making it bigger rather than greater in the modern sense. I suppose we could reclaim a few coastal marshes.
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    "Research suggests that two thirds of 2015 Labour voters voted Remain - and the difference in that proportion wasn't that great north to south."

    Not true although more voted for Brexit than expected http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-result-7-graphs-that-explain-how-brexit-won-eu-explained-a7101676.html
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    Which of course is why Corbyn voting for the Tories' proposed hard Brexit was such a betrayal.
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    rananegra said:

    stonemuse said:

    seth plum said:

    I suppose there is a desire from some to vote Nationalist, either for the SNP or UKIP (which purport to be very different...hmmn) and I can only assume that those of a nationalist persuasion are happy to do so for some reason, and others will vote nationalist because they can't bring themselves to vote for one of the others.
    I find it really hard to understand though, this global movement towards some idealised view of the world. Great Britain, making America great again, Le Pen inviting people to vote for the Frenchness of the French, Sinn Fein, the Scots, the idea of UK independence and sovereignty and so on.
    To me nationalists seem to want ti stick a pin into a moment from history when they felt their country was great. For the Scots it would be when Mel Gibson took them to the world cup in Argentina sporting Kilts and sporrens, for the English maybe Victorian Britain, or the world wars, maybe for Americans or Australians it would be when white settlers were practicing genocide on an industrial scale against native peoples, maybe for the French it would be the age of the Guillotine or Napoleon. My overall point is that what one person thinks of as their 'nation', good old British values and all that, will differ from what another person thinks of as their nation. Indeed in Fascist Germany they took the notion of being a proper German to a whole new level.
    I get the romantic yearning for a notion that has never really existed in terms of ones perceived 'nation'. However I really don't see how nationalism of any sort can speak to the reality of our present interconnected Global Village, sharing the same air and water in this part of the galaxy, where indeed there certainly ought to be more things that unite us than divide us.

    I'm not going to make too much comment but Great Britain is not exactly a new concept and you may struggle to find anyone that yearns for a return to world wars!
    Yes, but it is just a bit of rhetoric. Great in this sense means big - and it comes from a translation of the French - Grande Bretagne as opposed to Bretagne, which is Brittany. We're Big Britain and Brittany is
    effectively Little Britain.

    So all this "make Britain great again" is about making it bigger rather than greater in the modern sense. I suppose we could reclaim a few coastal marshes.
    Singapore gets bigger every year by reclaiming land ...why shouldn't we :wink:

    Incidentally, I know it is 'rhetoric' but the world war comment was too much.
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    Tories will win by a landslide, labour will be wiped out and wake up to the fact that corbyn is a good protest politician like Dennis Skinner but in no way is capable of leading the country, sadly there are many also in other parties that fit that vein.

    It's only a hardcore of activists who want Corbyn as the leader, the majority of the MPs don't
    Aren't MPs by definition 'hardcore activists' - they do it as a career?
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    Huskaris said:

    Jodaius said:

    Huskaris said:

    bobmunro said:

    Huskaris said:

    Conservatives and Labour both "pro Brexit"...

    Lib Dems only credible English party who are opposing Brexit...

    Conservatives and Labour are both pro Remain (unless they have both done u-turns from the referendum campaign) but are both pro respecting the will of the people. Big difference.
    They were pro remain, they are now, based on the will of the people, pro Brexit.

    Let me put it this way then, the Lib Dems are the only big party in England that don't care about democracy.
    I don't get this.

    Part of democracy is being able to air opposing views. It's not just a silent acceptance of the will of the (marginal) majority.

    IF the Lib Dems fight a general election on a Remain ticket, and win (big if) - will they still be anti-democratic?

    Elections are held every few years because 'the will of the people' changes in response to internal and external events. Why is it that some people think that a referendum result can never again be questioned (or the question put again)?
    Because of the nature of the referendum. Changing a political party every few years isn't much of an issue, negotiating your way in and out of the EU every few years is. Hence whey the last time we had one on it was over 40 years ago. To draw parallels with something as simple as an election is a bit simplistic...
    I take your point, but for me this reinforces the vital importance of ensuring that such key decisions are well informed.

    Since the referendum, many of the key promises set out by the Leave campaign have been shown to be misleading at best (think bus). The £350m a week extra for the NHS was dropped pretty much the following day.

    There's another thread for the Brexit debate and I don't want to reopen it here, but this really does destroy any perceived mandate for Brexit in my opinion.
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    sm said:

    "Research suggests that two thirds of 2015 Labour voters voted Remain - and the difference in that proportion wasn't that great north to south."

    Not true although more voted for Brexit than expected http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-result-7-graphs-that-explain-how-brexit-won-eu-explained-a7101676.html

    Not sure what you are saying isn't true (other than it was 63% according to this very early report as opposed to two thirds, which I accept)? The more detailed and later analysis that I've read suggested that although there was a small difference north-south, it wasn't anything like as clear-cut as people had once assumed, i.e. the Labour Leave voters did not account for the difference in the result north-south, insofar as there was one at all outside London.

    It is true that solidly white working class estates with a history of voting Labour voted Leave at the micro level, which was offset by younger, less white, more middle class Labour areas voting heavily for Remain.

    One of the more misleading features of the referendum was that numerous tiny district authorities were declared on the same basis as London boroughs and big cities, so a heavy preponderance of local authorities voted Leave, but the aggregate vote lead was much narrower.
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    Jodaius said:

    Huskaris said:

    Jodaius said:

    Huskaris said:

    bobmunro said:

    Huskaris said:

    Conservatives and Labour both "pro Brexit"...

    Lib Dems only credible English party who are opposing Brexit...

    Conservatives and Labour are both pro Remain (unless they have both done u-turns from the referendum campaign) but are both pro respecting the will of the people. Big difference.
    They were pro remain, they are now, based on the will of the people, pro Brexit.

    Let me put it this way then, the Lib Dems are the only big party in England that don't care about democracy.
    I don't get this.

    Part of democracy is being able to air opposing views. It's not just a silent acceptance of the will of the (marginal) majority.

    IF the Lib Dems fight a general election on a Remain ticket, and win (big if) - will they still be anti-democratic?

    Elections are held every few years because 'the will of the people' changes in response to internal and external events. Why is it that some people think that a referendum result can never again be questioned (or the question put again)?
    Because of the nature of the referendum. Changing a political party every few years isn't much of an issue, negotiating your way in and out of the EU every few years is. Hence whey the last time we had one on it was over 40 years ago. To draw parallels with something as simple as an election is a bit simplistic...
    I take your point, but for me this reinforces the vital importance of ensuring that such key decisions are well informed.

    Since the referendum, many of the key promises set out by the Leave campaign have been shown to be misleading at best (think bus). The £350m a week extra for the NHS was dropped pretty much the following day.

    There's another thread for the Brexit debate and I don't want to reopen it here, but this really does destroy any perceived mandate for Brexit in my opinion.
    Many?
    Well you've listed one, why don't you continue to list the others?
    Also, whilst your at it, explain how you expect them to have been achieved in less than a year.
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    I'm stunned by this, how can they call it so soon. Some of the candidates need time to get their costumes dry-cleaned, some their names changed (either for novelty purposes or to avoid any salacious stories on Google) and some need to fabricate friendships and conjure up stories about the various disasters they believe they might have attended.
    None of this shit just happens by itself overnight. Theresa is just inconsiderate. There I've said it.
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    Great news. Corbyn is a lame duck - left wing MP in the mould of Michael Foot - and we know how the 1983 election went.

    up the blues !!!!!!

    This is the sort of partisan, one dimensional comment that depresses me greatly around these debates I'm afraid Golfie.

    If you've done okay under the Tories, and I assume you have due to that comment, I totally get that you would want to vote for a party that seems to benefit you personally....but surely there's more to voting that that?

    There are many millions of people who haven't done 'okay' under Tory (and Labour if we are honest) administrations for starters. As a public sector worker I've seen the systematic, and in my view ideologically driven, dismantling of our public services under the guise of 'austerity' for example. Every day I see and hear about important services that should be a given in any advanced, developed country being downgraded or cut altogether.

    Sick and elderly people going without even basic care, let alone the luxury of having human contact for more then 10 minutes a day if they are lucky. The disabled having benefits that they rely on to make their already tough enough lives just that little bit more difficult removed. Libraries closing, youth centres shutting, social workers jacking it in because their work load is ridiculous and it's that or end up requiring help with their own mental health. I could give you a 100 examples just of my own experience or first hand knowledge and that's before we even start to consider the impact of Tory policy on other areas of our public services like the NHS, education or our police services.

    I'm not saying this is the case with yourself but shouldn't we, as a society, moved on from an "I'm alright jack" approach and take a more rounded view of our government?
    Thatcher introduced the 'I'm all right Jake' politics of selfishness, and a lot of people still believe in the same.
    Lets be honest when voting in a General Election most people vote to somehow improve their own lives and not the well being of the less fortunate and the Country, that is why the Tories get elected.
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    sm said:

    "Research suggests that two thirds of 2015 Labour voters voted Remain - and the difference in that proportion wasn't that great north to south."

    Not true although more voted for Brexit than expected http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-result-7-graphs-that-explain-how-brexit-won-eu-explained-a7101676.html

    Not sure what you are saying isn't true (other than it was 63% according to this very early report as opposed to two thirds, which I accept)? The more detailed and later analysis that I've read suggested that although there was a small difference north-south, it wasn't anything like as clear-cut as people had once assumed, i.e. the Labour Leave voters did not account for the difference in the result north-south, insofar as there was one at all outside London.

    It is true that solidly white working class estates with a history of voting Labour voted Leave at the micro level, which was offset by younger, less white, more middle class Labour areas voting heavily for Remain.

    One of the more misleading features of the referendum was that numerous tiny district authorities were declared on the same basis as London boroughs and big cities, so a heavy preponderance of local authorities voted Leave, but the aggregate vote lead was much narrower.
    Sorry I got that the wrong way around - yes I agree there were different currents within the Labour vote, but they really are unreconcilable and Corbyn should be making a stance against leaving the free trade area and all the labour protections that go with membership and if we cannot get that then there should be a 2nd referendum on whatever is negotiated. Worth remembering that Boris argued for continued membership of the free trade area - so there is not a clear mandate for leaving that whatever the Brexiteers may say. Corbyn was of course being delusional when he argued last week that Brexit presented an opportunity for strengthening existing labour market protections - what he has actually done is to hand the Tories an axe that they can use to remove as much as they want.
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    Brilliant move by May. She realises that the majority of people voted Brexit and the majority still wNt Brexit and her landslide victory will pave the way for it to happen. I'm a Labour man and live Corbym's lefties ideals, but also realise they aren't too popular. If I was living over there I'd vote Tory for the first time ever, and would also be influenced by any political that promised we would not blindly follow the USA 'foreign policy'.
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