Blimey…I take a timeout and you lot start blubbing like a bunch of schoolgirls. Morning Ladies and Gents. The truth is I don’t participate in CL anymore – too much bile in arguments that are going to change absolutely nothing, including anyone’s mind. And I haven’t run my model this year for 2 reasons: 1. Mainly, I’m very heavily involved in a voluntary organisation that takes up most of my time. 2. IMHO, the changes made to the GN post-2012 have changed the nature of the race and made trend-based models not well attuned yet to the new conditions, particularly when the going is good. There is simply not a big enough sample of results yet to use confidently a stats-model and, as it takes a shed load of time to crunch the numbers and as I reckoned that we were unlikely to get a second soft ground GN in a row, I decided back at Christmas to give it a miss. So, I come on this morning to see what you guys are thinking about it and had a good laugh at some of the stuff. BTW, Dan – you are totally wrong to think that I didn’t share the enjoyment of it. And, like you, it was nothing to do with making money – simply outsmarting the market and so-called experts in the racing media. So, no model, but I had some each-way bets a few weeks ago on runners that took my fancy and covered a range of going conditions. They are (in no particular order):
CAUSE OF CAUSES 16/1 – other than The Last Samuri (too much weight for him), the only one of the market fancies with form at 4m. Good win in the X-Country (Silver Birch 2nd in X-C before winning GN in 2007 for same trainer). Handled the occasion well as a 7 y-o 2 years ago, when staying on 8th under quiet ride from Carberry.
SAINT ARE 40/1 – in form, trainer in form, great record over the fences on a decent surface – close 2nd to Many Clouds 2 years ago. Could look a silly price come 5.24pm today.
RAZ DE MAREE 40/1 – bottomless stamina - if it were 3 laps of the course he’d be a shoe-in. Forget that he’s 12, he’s in best form of his career, with a great staying-on close 2nd to Native River in the Welsh Nat (on better ground than usually seen at Chepstow) and win in the Cork National (like Vics Canvas last year). Nice run, staying on 8th, in the GN 3 years ago. Softer ground would have been much preferred but hey-ho – take 6 places if you can.
HOUBLON DES OBEAUX 50/1 – career marked by impressive near-misses – close 2nd to Many Clouds in 2014 Hennessy giving him weight, notable 2nd to Coneygree in 2015 giving him weight. Placed in this season’s Welsh National and Midlands National (plugged on gamely under topweight). Thought to need soft ground but has good form on quick surfaces when a youngster. Runs off a nice handicap mark these days. Main concern is that he has tended to go best when fresh but today he’ll be carrying the lightest weight he’s ever shouldered in a chase. Could it be another Mon Mome for Venetia?
Good luck ladies and gents but be warned: no model, just my unreliable nose. So, CAVEAT EMPTOR. Let’s hope they all come back safe and sound. Maybe see you next year :O)
Now @PeanutsMolloy i want you to read the following very carefully .
There are thousands on this site (like me) that don't give a shit about Brexit, or any other contraversial nonsense. Indeed, as time goes on even our devotion to Charlton Athletic is being questioned.
However, one thing we are loyal to is our Grand National thread. We love it and we love you. So take an 11 month holiday if you need to, but at the end of the day we are all Charlton people from the same Charlton family. And we love your model and your thread.
So don't ever leave us hanging like it again chief :-)
Ps. My wife's grandad was Arthur and bar my own grandad was probably the greatest bloke I ever met. Thanks Arthur:-)
Now @PeanutsMolloy i want you to read the following very carefully .
There are thousands on this site (like me) that don't give a shit about Brexit, or any other contraversial nonsense. Indeed, as time goes on even our devotion to Charlton Athletic is being questioned.
However, one thing we are loyal to is our Grand National thread. We love it and we love you. So take an 11 month holiday if you need to, but at the end of the day we are all Charlton people from the same Charlton family. And we love your model and your thread.
So don't ever leave us hanging like it again chief :-)
Ps. My wife's grandad was Arthur and bar my own grandad was probably the greatest bloke I ever met. Thanks Arthur:-)
Quite right too AFKA. We will be sending the boys round PM if you do that again - so please be good enough to let us know where to send them just in case.
As for Arthur I didn't even consider him - which is a shame given that the King was one of my favourite all time players. I do believe that King Kermy is a direct descendant.
Well done you Arthur backers - great pick and a thoroughly worthy winner. Yet another occasion of one slipping through the net for me but, of course, very happy with the 2 fellas behind him. Mrs Molloy in high dudgeon that it'll be a week in Bude rather "The Gems of the Caribbean" this year but hey ho. Now.....about all this touchy feely stuff AFKA (and you AA). The feeling's mutual. Mrs Molloy and God willing (in that order I'm afraid Big Man), I'll see you next year.....or maybe November ;O)
Peanuts: so glad you are ok. I was adamant that something must have happened to you for you not to be on here around GN month. As others have said, your thread is the one many of us value and enjoy the most every Spring so please do come back next March and let's have some fun. Even without your model, I would (and should) have gone with your picks which, of course, were money winners themselves. Great that you are with us - I agree with your sentiments re the somewhat niggly, negativity that CL oozes so let's make sure we re-balance things with the GN Funspot! Have a great 2017 buddy.
A profitable day for us on the each ways although we bet small numbers by some standards on here:
Saint Are (remembered from @PeanutsMolloy threads in earlier years and thankfully confirmed as a goer once more by him yesterday as I'd already invested)
Cause For Causes (Shamelessly plagiarised from @PeanutsMolloy yesterday)
Gas Line Boy (My outsider fancy which, for once, did something. Untypical of my selections)
Vieux Lion Rouge ( Chosen by 'er indoors based on recently watching The Lion King with pre theatre meal in Cafe Rouge. Who needs a model? )
All done 6 places with Bet Victor plus a bit of half price Bet 365 for Saint Are and Cause For Causes.
Didn't see PM's post until just now but I had looked at this thread before and taken Saint Are and Cause of Causes from other people's views on here backed up by a mate on Cause for Causes so went with them each way.
Then thought long and hard about whom else to pick, did some research, consulted a number of experts and picked Arthur in the work sweep stake!
Happy days.
Ps, nice to have you back PM and hope you are back again / still around for the National again next year.
went on Saturday and stopped up in Manchester for the weekend, defo worth going to once, the only downsides were the animal rights protestors kicking off as we got off the train at aintree - knobheads, and the set up isnt that great far too many people and far too little bars/toilets.
had winners at 16/1, 4/1 and 2/1 in the races leading up to the gn then had cause of causes ew.
Quite a strange weekend for me also. had Potters legend E/W in earlier race, Arthur in the GN, Welling to win 4-0 and to top it off, Man Utd to win 3-0 yesterday. That is a one off on my form.
Comments
Also great to see @PeanutsMolloy pop his head in to this thread this morning!
£35 profit so a donation on its way to the Upbeats.
There are thousands on this site (like me) that don't give a shit about Brexit, or any other contraversial nonsense. Indeed, as time goes on even our devotion to Charlton Athletic is being questioned.
However, one thing we are loyal to is our Grand National thread. We love it and we love you. So take an 11 month holiday if you need to, but at the end of the day we are all Charlton people from the same Charlton family. And we love your model and your thread.
So don't ever leave us hanging like it again chief :-)
Ps. My wife's grandad was Arthur and bar my own grandad was probably the greatest bloke I ever met. Thanks Arthur:-)
As for Arthur I didn't even consider him - which is a shame given that the King was one of my favourite all time players. I do believe that King Kermy is a direct descendant.
PM - As well as your selections missed your analysis and timings for the races over the national fences on Thursday and Friday.
Glad that you're busy and doing well.
Only picked 1 this year, and got the winner.
Lovely stuff.
Yet another occasion of one slipping through the net for me but, of course, very happy with the 2 fellas behind him.
Mrs Molloy in high dudgeon that it'll be a week in Bude rather "The Gems of the Caribbean" this year but hey ho.
Now.....about all this touchy feely stuff AFKA (and you AA). The feeling's mutual.
Mrs Molloy and God willing (in that order I'm afraid Big Man), I'll see you next year.....or maybe November ;O)
Saint Are (remembered from @PeanutsMolloy threads in earlier years and thankfully confirmed as a goer once more by him yesterday as I'd already invested)
Cause For Causes (Shamelessly plagiarised from @PeanutsMolloy yesterday)
Gas Line Boy (My outsider fancy which, for once, did something. Untypical of my selections)
Vieux Lion Rouge ( Chosen by 'er indoors based on recently watching The Lion King with pre theatre meal in Cafe Rouge. Who needs a model?
All done 6 places with Bet Victor plus a bit of half price Bet 365 for Saint Are and Cause For Causes.
Look forward to your next visit @PeanutsMolloy
Then thought long and hard about whom else to pick, did some research, consulted a number of experts and picked Arthur in the work sweep stake!
Happy days.
Ps, nice to have you back PM and hope you are back again / still around for the National again next year.
Over 350 quid returned on top of my stakes
Did one for Arthur in honour of my mates dog and wss little boy
The others were from smiffyboy and len90 as well as peanuts
Thank you all
had winners at 16/1, 4/1 and 2/1 in the races leading up to the gn then had cause of causes ew.
Topped off by Sergio winning The Masters at 33s made for a very profitable day!
That is a one off on my form.