In addition to my well touted Wonderful Charm, I have already backed Raz and Houblon so will now add Cause Of Causes and Saint Are to them. And of course will do the five of them in F/Cs and T/Cs.
Blimey…I take a timeout and you lot start blubbing like a bunch of schoolgirls. Morning Ladies and Gents. The truth is I don’t participate in CL anymore – too much bile in arguments that are going to change absolutely nothing, including anyone’s mind. And I haven’t run my model this year for 2 reasons: 1. Mainly, I’m very heavily involved in a voluntary organisation that takes up most of my time. 2. IMHO, the changes made to the GN post-2012 have changed the nature of the race and made trend-based models not well attuned yet to the new conditions, particularly when the going is good. There is simply not a big enough sample of results yet to use confidently a stats-model and, as it takes a shed load of time to crunch the numbers and as I reckoned that we were unlikely to get a second soft ground GN in a row, I decided back at Christmas to give it a miss. So, I come on this morning to see what you guys are thinking about it and had a good laugh at some of the stuff. BTW, Dan – you are totally wrong to think that I didn’t share the enjoyment of it. And, like you, it was nothing to do with making money – simply outsmarting the market and so-called experts in the racing media. So, no model, but I had some each-way bets a few weeks ago on runners that took my fancy and covered a range of going conditions. They are (in no particular order):
CAUSE OF CAUSES 16/1 – other than The Last Samuri (too much weight for him), the only one of the market fancies with form at 4m. Good win in the X-Country (Silver Birch 2nd in X-C before winning GN in 2007 for same trainer). Handled the occasion well as a 7 y-o 2 years ago, when staying on 8th under quiet ride from Carberry.
SAINT ARE 40/1 – in form, trainer in form, great record over the fences on a decent surface – close 2nd to Many Clouds 2 years ago. Could look a silly price come 5.24pm today.
RAZ DE MAREE 40/1 – bottomless stamina - if it were 3 laps of the course he’d be a shoe-in. Forget that he’s 12, he’s in best form of his career, with a great staying-on close 2nd to Native River in the Welsh Nat (on better ground than usually seen at Chepstow) and win in the Cork National (like Vics Canvas last year). Nice run, staying on 8th, in the GN 3 years ago. Softer ground would have been much preferred but hey-ho – take 6 places if you can.
HOUBLON DES OBEAUX 50/1 – career marked by impressive near-misses – close 2nd to Many Clouds in 2014 Hennessy giving him weight, notable 2nd to Coneygree in 2015 giving him weight. Placed in this season’s Welsh National and Midlands National (plugged on gamely under topweight). Thought to need soft ground but has good form on quick surfaces when a youngster. Runs off a nice handicap mark these days. Main concern is that he has tended to go best when fresh but today he’ll be carrying the lightest weight he’s ever shouldered in a chase. Could it be another Mon Mome for Venetia?
Good luck ladies and gents but be warned: no model, just my unreliable nose. So, CAVEAT EMPTOR. Let’s hope they all come back safe and sound. Maybe see you next year :O)
Peanuts the Legend! Gutted that none of my picks match yours. Time will tell. My picks are: 1. The Young Master - 18/1 2. One For Arthur - 16/1 3. Perfect Candidate - 50/1 4. Roi Des Francs - 80/1 5. Shantou Flyer - 80/1 today 6. Just a Par - 50/1 7. Wonderful Charm - 33/1 8. Good to Know - 100/1
All e/w bets, of course. 6 places 1/4 place odds with Betvictor
Peanuts the Legend! Gutted that none of my picks match yours. Time will tell. My picks are: 1. The Young Master - 18/1 2. One For Arthur - 16/1 3. Perfect Candidate - 50/1 4. Roi Des Francs - 80/1 5. Shantou Flyer - 80/1 today 6. Just a Par - 50/1 7. Wonderful Charm - 33/1 8. Good to Know - 100/1
All e/w bets, of course. 6 places 1/4 place odds with Betvictor
Good luck all!
I'm a big fan of Perfect Candidate meldrew but I just think he's got too much weight on ground that will be too quick for him. If mine get beat, I hope it's him.....but I'll be kicking myself ;o)
I'm gonna have to take my leave for the rest of the morning guys and gals a) because I'm a bit tied up on other things b) I'm getting a bit blubby myself. Many thanks for the warm welcome back - much appreciated.......... you may well wish I'd stayed AWOL come 5.24pm this afternoon ;o)
Good to hear from you again Peanuts, Thanks for the advice even if you have shelved your model. I fancied c of c and St. Are anyway, might add one or two of your other tips. Best of luck, even if you just post once a year you will be warmly welcomed.
If like me you just signed up to bet 365 and placed your bets to take advantage of the offer, be aware you won't get half your stake returned. Just read terms and conditions and says To qualify for this offer, you must be an existing bet365 account holder and have opened your account before 23:59:59 UK Time on Wednesday 5th April 2017.
Blimey…I take a timeout and you lot start blubbing like a bunch of schoolgirls. Morning Ladies and Gents. The truth is I don’t participate in CL anymore – too much bile in arguments that are going to change absolutely nothing, including anyone’s mind. And I haven’t run my model this year for 2 reasons: 1. Mainly, I’m very heavily involved in a voluntary organisation that takes up most of my time. 2. IMHO, the changes made to the GN post-2012 have changed the nature of the race and made trend-based models not well attuned yet to the new conditions, particularly when the going is good. There is simply not a big enough sample of results yet to use confidently a stats-model and, as it takes a shed load of time to crunch the numbers and as I reckoned that we were unlikely to get a second soft ground GN in a row, I decided back at Christmas to give it a miss. So, I come on this morning to see what you guys are thinking about it and had a good laugh at some of the stuff. BTW, Dan – you are totally wrong to think that I didn’t share the enjoyment of it. And, like you, it was nothing to do with making money – simply outsmarting the market and so-called experts in the racing media. So, no model, but I had some each-way bets a few weeks ago on runners that took my fancy and covered a range of going conditions. They are (in no particular order):
CAUSE OF CAUSES 16/1 – other than The Last Samuri (too much weight for him), the only one of the market fancies with form at 4m. Good win in the X-Country (Silver Birch 2nd in X-C before winning GN in 2007 for same trainer). Handled the occasion well as a 7 y-o 2 years ago, when staying on 8th under quiet ride from Carberry.
SAINT ARE 40/1 – in form, trainer in form, great record over the fences on a decent surface – close 2nd to Many Clouds 2 years ago. Could look a silly price come 5.24pm today.
RAZ DE MAREE 40/1 – bottomless stamina - if it were 3 laps of the course he’d be a shoe-in. Forget that he’s 12, he’s in best form of his career, with a great staying-on close 2nd to Native River in the Welsh Nat (on better ground than usually seen at Chepstow) and win in the Cork National (like Vics Canvas last year). Nice run, staying on 8th, in the GN 3 years ago. Softer ground would have been much preferred but hey-ho – take 6 places if you can.
HOUBLON DES OBEAUX 50/1 – career marked by impressive near-misses – close 2nd to Many Clouds in 2014 Hennessy giving him weight, notable 2nd to Coneygree in 2015 giving him weight. Placed in this season’s Welsh National and Midlands National (plugged on gamely under topweight). Thought to need soft ground but has good form on quick surfaces when a youngster. Runs off a nice handicap mark these days. Main concern is that he has tended to go best when fresh but today he’ll be carrying the lightest weight he’s ever shouldered in a chase. Could it be another Mon Mome for Venetia?
Good luck ladies and gents but be warned: no model, just my unreliable nose. So, CAVEAT EMPTOR. Let’s hope they all come back safe and sound. Maybe see you next year :O)
COYR
Great to see you back Sir!
I'd actually picked one of those on my own (Saint Are) so apologies to all in advance!
So Peanuts more or less agrees with me. But we disagree on two things. I think The Last Samuri can carry the weight, and i have to disagree about Saint Are, he has had enough chances and any horse with five career falls can't win a National.
Comments
In addition to my well touted Wonderful Charm, I have already backed Raz and Houblon so will now add Cause Of Causes and Saint Are to them. And of course will do the five of them in F/Cs and T/Cs.
Double Shuffle
Thunder n Roses
One for Arthur
(....At least until Colin returns)
1. The Young Master - 18/1
2. One For Arthur - 16/1
3. Perfect Candidate - 50/1
4. Roi Des Francs - 80/1
5. Shantou Flyer - 80/1 today
6. Just a Par - 50/1
7. Wonderful Charm - 33/1
8. Good to Know - 100/1
All e/w bets, of course. 6 places 1/4 place odds with Betvictor
Good luck all!
If mine get beat, I hope it's him.....but I'll be kicking myself ;o)
Having you back on the GN thread is the highlight of this football season.
Am backing your selections today - no pressure !
a) because I'm a bit tied up on other things
b) I'm getting a bit blubby myself.
Many thanks for the warm welcome back - much appreciated.......... you may well wish I'd stayed AWOL come 5.24pm this afternoon ;o)
Had a punt this year, purely off of my own back so let's see.
I never take CL seriously (people may of noticed) but I do understand your critique. Good luck everyone.
Abit gutted with that!
I'd actually picked one of those on my own (Saint Are) so apologies to all in advance!
Roi des Francs E/W
Saint Are E/W
Raz De Maree E/W
Vicente E/W
Ucello Conti E/W
Thunder and Roses E/W
I'll be a very happy man is saint are wins. I'll be happier if all the horses come back safely