The initial skirmishes of the 2015 General Election have started, with the announcement by Boris Johnson that he's intending to stand in Uxbridge and South Ruislip; Nigel Farage putting himself forward as a candidate in South Thanet; former Conservative MP Douglas Carswell swapping sides to instigate a by-election in Clacton; and Alex Salmond and Alistair Darling fighting their yes/no campaign north of the border. Meanwhile Labour leads the national polling.
The lead-up to 7 May is going to be very interesting...
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I agree hung parliament, though who knows what will happen if Scottish referendum ends up with a yes vote.
What will happen? Has anyone set out a plan? I've not seen anything anywhere but admittedly have not actively looked for it.
Worth noting that there have been very few elections where the Scottish vote was decisive - I think the last one was the only one - the Tories would have had a majority if Scotland had been excluded.
What did I hear the other day? Vote labour, get Tory-lite, Vote lib Dems get Tory, vote Tory get UKIP, Vote UKIP get nothing, Vote Green get depressed, Vote Monster Raving Loony and get what we've got.
Will be interesting to see where the Lib-dem voters (23%) of last election move to. A large percentage were protest votes of the top two so maybe UKIP? But then the left-wing policies would mean perhaps Green or Labour instead.
Labour may have a presentation issue but their leader is bright and shrewd - I don't know when they announce their policies but their recent announcement on the railways is very smart.
UKIP are going to win a lot of votes but I don't know how that affects the map...
Tories - I sincerely hope they are not in power for their gaming of the EU situation is potentially disastrous! Think Scottish voting yes and multiply several times over...just a personal view but our national borders and alliances are not the issue for the next 20-50 years.
We will know soon enough where the Scottish vote is going...this next election is important although I can understand if some think it changes nothing...from what I read a couple of years back the next 30 years hold a lot of challenges and we need government that can address them.
- UKIP to get their first-ever seats (plural).
- Green to lose Brighton Pavilion and therefore all representation.
- Labour with the most seats won but not a majority. I believe they'll form a government with the Liberal Democrats and potentially a couple of independents (maybe even coaxing Plaid Cymru and similar), with a majority of about 18.
Obviously what I've said depends heavily on the next few months.
Make sure you vote, please.
Of course Labour will give them time and want them to have the vote in 2015 as the seats they would loose could be the difference in holding power.
Seriously though, this is a rare occasion where it's hard to predict who will get a majority. It will be very interesting.
If the Scots vote for independence, there will be a period of negotiation between the Scottish Parliament and the UK Government in Westminster. As some people have said, this will last, at least a year. A "yes" vote does *not* automatically mean that Scotland is no longer part of the UK - it merely instigates a period of negotiation. Those negotiations could even conclude in the Scots changing their mind!
(Of course the position of the Welsh Nationalists is entirely different).
I think a more significant and immediate factor would be a how engaged in a UK general election a post - yes vote Scottish electorate would be? Since the SNP has set a target date for independance of a March 2016 the Scottish people would be voting for Scottish MP's who would be very unlikely to sit for more than 10 months, in a Parliment largely irrelevant to them - How would this affect turnout and the make up of those MP's elected?
In addition a yes vote could also obviously affect a government with a small, or no majority, very early in a new Parliament, but may not produce a two thirds majority required to call another election.
Following a yes vote some sort of boundary review would be very likely. There have even been credible calls for the UK election to be postponed until May 2016 in order to allow re - drawing of boundaries to accommodate a smaller number of MP's and without the involvement of then effectively foreign voters.
I am staunchly in favour of the Union for a number of reasons and think, that at the very least, a yes vote would cause great instability politically and economically both sides of a new border in the medium term.
Re the election? Very close indeed with a small majority for either party, or most likely hung.
Re Scottland? I think that they will vote no.
Previously swings would be pretty uniform between elections and only a couple of percentage points would be down to local factors . In my view that changed in 1997 when many voters started voting tactically on a mass scale to oust a Tory Government .
Previously tactical voting mainly only happened at By Elections, which did not effect who was in power or local and European elections . My view is many voters now happily lend their votes to keep out the party they dislike the most rather than support. The main benefices of this previously has been the Lib Dems .Before the Brighton game I drank in Lewes on Saturday which is held by Lib Dem Norman Baker .Labour gets a negligible vote here at General Elections despite the fact that they attract decent support in areas like Newhaven for local polls. This will clearly change following the coalition. It is estimated that around 80% of Miliband's increased support since 2010 is from disaffected Lib Dems.
It is suggested by a Survation poll for the Mail On Sunday that 45% of Labour voters from 2010 in Clacton would support Douglas Carswell in the forthcoming By Election . In the past this would not even happen even in the heightened atmosphere on a By Election . In 1982 Tory voters in Mitcham and Morden elected Angela Rumbold to oust the Labour to SDP defector Bruce Douglas Mann.
In terms of Scotland my best guess is although the political momentum is with Salmond at the moment that he will just fall short. Many Scots I know like him as a First Minister but would not support outright independence.
A break away could have a major effect on the UK Parliament and the outcome of next year's election. From memory since the Second World War Labour has only won a majority in England and Wales ( the main UK parties do not contest the Northern Irish seats which makes it even more difficult to construct a parliamentary majority) in 1945 ,1966,1997 and 2001.
So the Government's following Labour victories in 1950, 1964,1974 and 2005 all relied on Scottish seats to construct a majority. Given that this is part of the Party's heartlands and the closeness of the polls , the prospect of the Scots seats making a difference next year is quite likely in my view. As @Iagree comments above we would now have a majority Conservative Government of 29 and not a hung parliament .In my view he will also takes seats off Labour next year whatever happens.
This is not to mention the other localised curve balls such as the Greens in Brighton , Respect in Bradford and UKIP many areas. Crucially if (when) Carswell wins Clacton he will do it under their own banner and give them confidence in the dozen or so seats they have targeted in the East of England ,some Northern Labour seats, Essex and Kent. For example Rotherham must be a feasible target for them given their recent local vote and the recent scandal.
The current government is the only one which would have been affected insomuch as it would have had a majority of 29.