OK, it’s the Hennessy Gold Cup on Saturday over 3¼ miles and the demanding fences of Newbury. 21 runners declared this morning.
It’s a grand old handicap that has thrown up many clues for the GN over the years but, unlike the Big One, has been dominated in recent years by younger chasers, specifically second-season chasers (10 of last 14 winners). Therefore, as with the Scottish and Irish Nationals, while there are trends to consider when having a punt, the short careers of many of the winners (and current runners – 13 of the field) defy high conviction trend analysis.
However, I remain a glutton for punishment and, since last year’s GN result replenished the coffers somewhat, I shall attempt a quick and dirty “elimination-style” trend analysis to select my short-list from which I shall place small wagers each-way on two.
This analysis is based on the stats of all winners and horses placed up to 4L of the winners of all Hennessy’s run from and including Kings Road’s victory in 2000 (13 winners and 14 near-things):
1. Unless having run creditably (<20L of winner) in a previous Hennessy or won (or <10L) in a Class 1 chase over 27f+, take out all “seasoned” chasers (i.e. in their 3rd season or more over fences) [last 13 winners and 11 of 14 near-things comply]
Eliminate: Cape Tribulation, Katenko, Prince De Beauchene, Cloudy Too, Triolo d’Alene, Loch Ba and Whodoyouthink.
Invictus missed the entirety of last season so we will keep him in at this stage.
2. 43 of 44 horses winning and finishing within 10L of the winner of the 13 Hennessy’s since 2000 were 9y-o or younger, so take out all 10+ year olds.
Eliminate: Imperial Commander
3. Take out any horse that has a Strike Rate (wins and <4L) at 3m chases less than 66.6% unless it has a Class 1 or Irish Grade 1 chase win (or <4L) to its name AND has either won (or <4L) a chase at Newbury or been placed in a previous Hennessy or won (or <4L) a Class 1 chase over 27f+ [last 13 winners and 10 of 14 near-things comply].
Eliminate: Our Father, Opening Batsman, Hadrian’s Approach, Terminal, Theatre Guide and Merry King
4. Since the Hennessy has a biggish field and can be a rough race, unless a former RSA Chase winner (an extended 3m chase that also typically takes no prisoners), take out any horse that has not run creditably (placed or <10L) in a 12+ runner chase or won a Cl1 hurdle with 12+ runners or any hurdle with 16+ runners [last 13 winners and 14 near-things all comply]
Eliminate: Rocky Creek and Invictus
We are left with 5 candidates: Lord Windermere, Houblon Des Obeaux, Super Duty, Same Difference and Highland Lodge.
Any of these winning would confirm the trends but you can’t back all 5 so it’s now down to the un-trusty nose:
Lord Windermere - the Irish have not won this for 30 years but LW has an RSA chase win to his name and this has a strong correlation with Hennessy success. I’m not totally convinced about the quality of his RSA win however and, given his short price, I’ll pass him by………….but he’s a big threat.
Same Difference - has form over Newbury’s fences and ran very well in the “Whitbread” (aka Bet365) but he was beaten a long way from home in his only outing this season (won by Houblon Des Obeaux) and the Hennessy trend is that, while it isn’t necessary to have had a pipe-opener, if you do it needs to be at least OK - 12 of the 27-strong sample had done so and all ran creditably (albeit some tipping up late on). Twiston-Davies’s form isn’t exactly red-hot, so I’ll also give him the swerve.
Houblons Des Obeaux - won impressively a Grade 3 at Ascot 4 weeks ago with several of Saturday's rivals behind (up 10lbs for that win) and trainer is in excellent form but I'll also pass him by because of a significant unfavourable weight relative to Highland Lodge.
So, my 2 each-way selections are:
Highland Lodge (12/1) - said to prefer soft ground but ran a blinder on decent ground under top-weight in the Desert Orchid chase a month ago, touched off by Standing Ovation. He disappointed in the 4m amateur chase at the Festival but Emma Lavelle's yard was not in great form at the time - is red hot now. Significantly, he is 11lbs better off vs Houblon Des Obeaux than when pipping HDO by 0.75L (then level weights) for 3rd (3.5L behind and giving 3lbs to recent Charlie Hall chase winner Harry Topper) in the 3m Worcester Novices' Chase at Newbury a year ago.
Super Duty (20/1) – a gutsy competitor, only twice out of the front 2 in 12 starts, beaten by a head in the 24-runner 3m2f Kim Muir when lumping 11-12 last March. Should enjoy the GS ground and trainer Donald McCain in decent form. Hasn't run since April (not a negative for the Hennessy) when 1.75L behind Rocky Creek (7/1 fav for Saturday's race) over 3m around the Mildmay course at Aintree. He receives 3lbs from RC on Saturday.
NB.
For the reasons given at the outset, these are LOW CONVICTION selections.
Bet sensibly - save the heavy stuff for the National ;o)
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Comments
I'm sure Len's Little Girl will be having a punt when she sees this.
got a cheque from the Tax Man this week which is unheard of so might have a little dabble.
Also, a strange booking for Sue Smith, Richard Johnson rides 'Cloudy Too', I cannot recall him ever riding for her and the old curmudgeon Harvey before. It's worth a pound on that methinks.
Thanks PM. Great effort as always.
Coe - 1st of 14 on 17/01/09 at Haydock
Mr Strachan - 3rd of 5 on 08/02/08 at Newbury
Mister McGoldrick - 3rd of 4 on18/02/06 at Lingfield
However, as he usually falls off when I back him on a chaser, he won't be carrying any of my money. Which means he will probably bolt up.
;-)
No rain forecast for the next few days so I would think it should be predominantly Good come Saturday.
Should be a belter of a race.
Bet365 now offering 5 places for e/w.
He mentions his age and stable form being positives. Apparently the trainer had two winners yesterday.
Lydia Hislop reckons HL to be the chief danger to her selection Lord Windermere.
I've been weighing up the unfancied runners as I do like to have an e/w interest in a real long-shot in a rough, tough staying handicap chase, especially when 5 places are on offer.
I'm sorely tempted by Same Difference at 40s but, aside from the fact that Super Duty is 11lbs better off today against Same Diff than when touched off by him in the Kim Muir (admittedly 7lbs is down to jockey's allowance in the KM but it was an amateur jocks race), I just can't put out of my mind the current poor form of the Twiston-Davies yard. NTD has 5 runners today ahead of the Hennessy and if they show signs of a change I may yet have a nibble if that price holds.
However, putting aside the bald stats (or going with them if I cheat and ignore his last two PUs - there may be reason to), I've taken a flier on another second-season chaser, Opening Batsman offered at 50/1 by Bet365 (5 places).
He won the Racing Plus Chase last Feb in very good style but his next two runs (the last 4 weeks ago) were too bad to be true. What piques my interest is the first time application of cheek pieces and, more significantly, tongue-tie. Trainer Harry Fry is in good form and at 50/1 and 5 e/w places, I fancy a small punt that they may do the trick and at least get him in the shake up.