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Pre-season bets

Charlton are 2/1 to finish top half with William Hill & BetVictor
15/8 with Skybet to finish above Derby and Boro

Would quite like a treble of Charlton top half (2/1), Swans to finish above Cardiff (4/11) and Hull relegation (4/6)!
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Comments

  • Not sure 2/1 is great odds in such a turbulant league. The other two, however, seem like good bets to rack up an acca
  • 50/50 in my eyes as to whether we do or not, every game is a toss of a coin, we're having a good pre-season and Powell is getting used to the league.. I'd say 2/1 is decent. As is Swindon top half 4/5 IMO
  • 50/50 in my eyes as to whether we do or not, every game is a toss of a coin, we're having a good pre-season and Powell is getting used to the league.. I'd say 2/1 is decent. As is Swindon top half 4/5 IMO

    Agree with your thinking mate, 2/1 tempting based on what you say. However I do have concerns that some of the teams below us last year have reinforced whereas if anything, we're now weaker. BUT if we signed 3-4 players (IF!) before August 3rd then that 2/1 suddenly looks almost sure-fire.

    Like Swindon at 4/5 too.

  • 2 to 1 is fair value but the league won't be as even next season

    Swindon are in financial trouble and may be going in to administration so may get deducted up to 15 points so I'd steer clear if I was you
  • last season had man u, cardiff, sheff utd and gillingham ew had 2 quid on would of returned £98.64
  • I usually pick a number of teams from each division and perm them. Example..

    Championship
    Reading 9/1
    Wigan 12/1

    League 1
    Wolves 4/1
    Peterborough 8/1

    League 2
    Chesterfield 8/1
    Scunthorpe 14/1

    2x2x2 = 8 trebles. If the three lowest priced teams come in you get £450 back for a £1 stake unit (£8 total).

    I'll give it a couple more weeks before I decide what to do this year.


  • Not decided yet but may do

    Man City
    Wigan
    Brentford
    Chesterfield
  • I've done..

    Stoke relegation 10/3
    Millwall relegation 10/3
    Sheff Utd promotion 7/2

    £15 returns £1267.50 with Betfred.
  • Haven't done do yet but also having
    Chelsea to win the league
    Wigan promotion
    Coventry relegation
  • Done £10 e/w yankee
    Chelsea 9/4
    Qpr 6/1
    Wolves 4/1
    Scunthorpe 16/1
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  • I've gone for:

    Chelsea 2/1
    Reading 9/1
    P'boro 8/1
    Portsmouth 4/1

    50p e/w, either win or finish in the top 3 of their league. Would the e/w odds be 1/3 or 1/4 does anyone know? I'm thinking 1/3 tbh.
  • It's normally quarter of the odds. I'm sure premier league is 2 places rather then 3 though.
  • Nicholas said:

    It's normally quarter of the odds. I'm sure premier league is 2 places rather then 3 though.

    Will Hill shops are doing either 1-3 or 1-4 places, I'll have a look when I'm in there later
  • Chelsea, Qpr, Bradford, Portsmouth
  • Premier league is 1/3 odds with top two finish, other divisions are 1/4 top three.
  • A FEW STATISTICS OF THE LAST 14 SEASONS TO PONDER OVER BEFORE YOU PLACE YOUR ANTE-POST FOOTBALL WAGERS

    LAST 14 CHAMPIONSHIP WINNERS WITH OPENING DAY OF SEASON PRICE

    1999–2000 Charlton Athletic 10/1
    2000–01 Fulham 6/1
    2001–02 Manchester City 7/2 FAVOURITE
    2002–03 Portsmouth 22/1
    2003–04 Norwich City 25/1
    2004–05 Sunderland 10/1
    2005–06 Reading 25/1
    2006–07 Sunderland 8/1
    2007–08 West Bromwich Albion 8/1
    2008–09 Wolverhampton Wanderers 14/1
    2009–10 Newcastle United 8/1
    2010–11 Queens Park Rangers 12/1
    2011–12 Reading 16/1
    2012–13 Cardiff 12/1

    So only 1 favourite has won in the last 14 seasons.

    No promoted side has won the division in the season following promotion!!



    LAST 14 DIVISION ONE WINNERS WITH OPENING DAY OF SEASON PRICE

    1999-00 Preston North End 12/1
    2000–01 Millwall 9/1
    2001–02 Brighton 20/1
    2002–03 Wigan Athletic 8/1
    2003–04 Plymouth Argyle 20/1
    2004–05 Luton Town 33/1
    2005–06 Southend United 50/1
    2006–07 Scunthorpe United 66/1
    2007–08 Swansea City 11/1
    2008–09 Leicester City 6/1
    2009–10 Norwich City 8/1
    2010–11 Brighton 14/1
    2011–12 Charlton Athletic 8/1
    2012–13 Doncaster 14/1

    No favourite has won in 14 years!!

    Only 1 promoted team won the division the season following promotion - Brighton 2001-02.

    Only 2 relegated teams won the division the season following relegation - Norwich 2009-10 and Doncaster 2012-13


    LAST 14 DIVISION TWO WINNERS WITH OPENING DAY OF SEASON PRICE

    1999-00 Swansea City 8/1
    2000–01 Brighton 10/1
    2001–02 Plymouth 20/1
    2002–03 Rushden & Diamonds 8/1
    2003–04 Doncaster Rovers 33/1
    2004–05 Yeovil Town 12/1
    2005–06 Carlisle United 25/1
    2006–07 Walsall 12/1
    2007–08 Milton Keynes Dons 9/1
    2008–09 Brentford 20/1
    2009–10 Notts County 7/2 FAVOURITE
    2010–11 Chesterfield 14/1
    2011–12 Swindon Town 10/1
    2012–13 Gillingham 20/1

    So only 1 favourite in 14 years.

    No promoted side has won the division in the season following promotion!!

    No relegated team won the division the season following relegation!!


    Therefore, QPR, WOLVES and PORTSMOUTH, who will be the cornerstones of many ante-post football accas, are statistically very much up against it.
  • Good bit of stats there cheers, not normally one to back favourites, but never realised how bad they actually were.
  • A FEW STATISTICS OF THE LAST 14 SEASONS TO PONDER OVER BEFORE YOU PLACE YOUR ANTE-POST FOOTBALL WAGERS

    LAST 14 CHAMPIONSHIP WINNERS WITH OPENING DAY OF SEASON PRICE

    1999–2000 Charlton Athletic 10/1
    2000–01 Fulham 6/1
    2001–02 Manchester City 7/2 FAVOURITE
    2002–03 Portsmouth 22/1
    2003–04 Norwich City 25/1
    2004–05 Sunderland 10/1
    2005–06 Reading 25/1
    2006–07 Sunderland 8/1
    2007–08 West Bromwich Albion 8/1
    2008–09 Wolverhampton Wanderers 14/1
    2009–10 Newcastle United 8/1
    2010–11 Queens Park Rangers 12/1
    2011–12 Reading 16/1
    2012–13 Cardiff 12/1

    So only 1 favourite has won in the last 14 seasons.

    No promoted side has won the division in the season following promotion!!



    LAST 14 DIVISION ONE WINNERS WITH OPENING DAY OF SEASON PRICE

    1999-00 Preston North End 12/1
    2000–01 Millwall 9/1
    2001–02 Brighton 20/1
    2002–03 Wigan Athletic 8/1
    2003–04 Plymouth Argyle 20/1
    2004–05 Luton Town 33/1
    2005–06 Southend United 50/1
    2006–07 Scunthorpe United 66/1
    2007–08 Swansea City 11/1
    2008–09 Leicester City 6/1
    2009–10 Norwich City 8/1
    2010–11 Brighton 14/1
    2011–12 Charlton Athletic 8/1
    2012–13 Doncaster 14/1

    No favourite has won in 14 years!!

    Only 1 promoted team won the division the season following promotion - Brighton 2001-02.

    Only 2 relegated teams won the division the season following relegation - Norwich 2009-10 and Doncaster 2012-13


    LAST 14 DIVISION TWO WINNERS WITH OPENING DAY OF SEASON PRICE

    1999-00 Swansea City 8/1
    2000–01 Brighton 10/1
    2001–02 Plymouth 20/1
    2002–03 Rushden & Diamonds 8/1
    2003–04 Doncaster Rovers 33/1
    2004–05 Yeovil Town 12/1
    2005–06 Carlisle United 25/1
    2006–07 Walsall 12/1
    2007–08 Milton Keynes Dons 9/1
    2008–09 Brentford 20/1
    2009–10 Notts County 7/2 FAVOURITE
    2010–11 Chesterfield 14/1
    2011–12 Swindon Town 10/1
    2012–13 Gillingham 20/1

    So only 1 favourite in 14 years.

    No promoted side has won the division in the season following promotion!!

    No relegated team won the division the season following relegation!!


    Therefore, QPR, WOLVES and PORTSMOUTH, who will be the cornerstones of many ante-post football accas, are statistically very much up against it.

    Decent stats. For some reason I seem to be the only person who would be shocked to see QPR in the top two. Therefore, lump on the bastards!

  • Therefore, QPR, WOLVES and PORTSMOUTH, who will be the cornerstones of many ante-post football accas, are statistically very much up against it.

    That is completely illogical. Whether the favourites have failed to win the League in the past does not make it less likely that the favourites will win in future.

  • dabos said:


    Therefore, QPR, WOLVES and PORTSMOUTH, who will be the cornerstones of many ante-post football accas, are statistically very much up against it.

    That is completely illogical. Whether the favourites have failed to win the League in the past does not make it less likely that the favourites will win in future.

    He said "statistically".
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  • dabos said:


    Therefore, QPR, WOLVES and PORTSMOUTH, who will be the cornerstones of many ante-post football accas, are statistically very much up against it.

    That is completely illogical. Whether the favourites have failed to win the League in the past does not make it less likely that the favourites will win in future.

    He said "statistically".
    Fair enough. But I would advise against using that statistic as a reason to bet against one of the favourites.
  • I won't be using that statistic to bet on anything, i was just posting in case it was of interest to anyone. But if you take what i said above and apply it further you can narrow down the teams most likely:

    12 of the last 14 Championship winners have between 8/1 and 25/1 (85.7% strike rate) and 7 of the 14 between 8/1 and 12/1 (50%).
    So only 1 favourite has won in the last 14 seasons.
    No promoted side has won the division in the season following promotion.
    Winner therefore most likely to come from Reading, Bolton, Leicester, Wigan and Forest.

    League 1 - 11 of 14 winners priced between 6/1 and 20/1 (78.6%)
    No favourite has won in 14 years.
    Only 1 promoted team won the division the season following promotion.
    Only 2 relegated teams won the division the season following relegation.
    Statistically, winner is most likely to come from: Sheff Utd, Brentford, MK Dons, Preston and Coventry.

    League 2 - 12 of the 14 winners between 8/1 and 25/1 (85.7%)
    1 favourite in 14 years.
    No promoted side has won the division in the season following promotion.
    No relegated team won the division the season following relegation.
    Winner therefore most likely to come from: Chesterfield, Fleetwood, Bristol R, Northampton, Oxford, Cheltenham, Burton, Southend and Rochdale.


    Obviously that's not to say QPR, Wolves and Pompey won't stroll to the titles but it's unlikely.
  • edited July 2013


    But if you take what i said above and apply it further you can narrow down the teams most likely.
    *snip*
    Obviously that's not to say QPR, Wolves and Pompey won't stroll to the titles but it's unlikely.

    I can see the pattern in the data, but surely there isn't a causal link between being favourites and not winning the league. I'm not sure "applying it further" makes any sense. It seems illogical to say other teams are more likely to win the league than QPR because QPR are the favourites (and similarly in the other divisions).
  • I would like to see what points we have in the handicap spread. We seem to be around 2/3 down the betting in most books so may get around a 20pt start which looks generous to me. Personally i'm surprised a lot of people fancy qpr to do well. I may be comletely wrong but they look like a club in turmoil to me and could be this seasons wolves.
  • Well i personally think Wigan have a better squad than QPR and QPR are a bit of a mess right now so that'd be my reasoning for not backing QPR

    But since the turn of the millenium, only 2 favourites out of 42 have won the league which i was quite surprised at.

    We can re-visit this thread in April and see how right/wrong the stats were.

  • Bookies odds reflect who people are betting on, that makes them favourites. Not the team most likely to win. That is why England were invariably short odds to win tournaments.
  • MrOneLung said:

    Bookies odds reflect who people are betting on, that makes them favourites. Not the team most likely to win. That is why England were invariably short odds to win tournaments.

    Only in-part true. Otherwise, how would they arrive at their initial prices? People can't bet before a market is open.
  • MrOneLung said:

    Bookies odds reflect who people are betting on, that makes them favourites. Not the team most likely to win. That is why England were invariably short odds to win tournaments.

    Influenced by people betting but the original odds come from expert analysis
  • 12/1 - Newcastle to get relegated is good value in my opinion
  • Well i personally think Wigan have a better squad than QPR and QPR are a bit of a mess right now so that'd be my reasoning for not backing QPR

    But since the turn of the millenium, only 2 favourites out of 42 have won the league which i was quite surprised at.

    We can re-visit this thread in April and see how right/wrong the stats were.

    Well whether Wigan have a better squad than QPR is another matter entirely. It's not a case of the stats being right or wrong - no one can doubt that only 2 favourites out of 42 have won the league. But it's very questionable to say that being a favourite has an impact on the season.

    It's not *that* surprising anyway. Assuming a favourite starting price of 6-1, this means each favourite has a 1 / 7 = 14% chance of winning the league.

    So the probability of exactly 2 favourites out of 42 is

    (1/7)^2 * (6/7)^40 * 861 combinations of 2 teams winning = 3.7%

    Whacking all the combinations in a spreadsheet gives an expected favourites count of 6 from 42 (again, assuming all favourites start at 6-1). The probability of each favourite winning is almost certainly lower than 14% due to the bookie's margin. If the true probability of the favourite winning was 10%, then the 2 winning out of 42 rises to 13%.

    I guess it just goes to show how difficult the football league is to predict.



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