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Euro 2012 Semi Final - Germany v Italy - Thursday 7:45 pm

Will Germany follow the other pre-tournament favourites into the final or will the largely unfancied Italy cause an upset?

FIFA Rankings
Germany 3
Italy 12

Route to the Semi
Germany's route has been somewhat of a formality, after topping their group with 3 wins out of 3 and brushing aside Greece, albeit with a little scare when the Greeks equalised. They scored more goals than any other team to reach the semi's and what made it even more impressive was their ability to rest the trio of Mario Gomez, Lukas Podolski and Thomas Mueller in the quarter final.

Italy's route has been a little different, there wasn't too much doubt in the group stage that they would go through although a rigged surprise 2-2 draw between Spain and Croatia in the final round of group games would have seen them go home. So on to the simple quarter final against England, even with all the chances they created (and missed) they surely knew they would go through. Italy v England in a quarter final and it goes to penalties, it was a formality.

Team News
The only worry for Germany was Bastian Schweinsteiger's ankle but he has been passed fit. German boy band member manager, Joachim Loew, looks set to recall the rested trio from the quarter final in what looks a very strong side, however the impressive Miroslav Klose may give him a slight selection dilemma.

Italy on the other hand have a number of injury worries, Daniele De Rossi, Giorgio Chiellini and Ignazio Abate as well as having Christian Maggio suspended. Cesare Prandelli may revert to the back 3 tactics he started the tournament with.

Prediction
So we have the pre-tournament favourites who are at full strength, have scored more goals, 9, than their opponents, 4, and given Italy going the distance against England and fewer days rest it looks like a foregone conclusion. Well possibly, but Italy have proved to be a bit of a bogey side for Germany down the years, there have been 7 competitive matches between the two and Germany are yet to win, with Italy winning 3.

However, Germany are on this fantastic run, 15 competitive wins in a row which is a new record and with plenty of talent throughout the side it may come down to Italy's old guard in Andrea Pirlo and Gigi Buffon as to how this game will turn out, if Pirlo has enough in the tank and starts to dictate the play and if Buffon can carry on his fine season and keep out the inevitable chances Germany will create, there is the possibility for a shock.

Saying all that I fancy Germany to be stronger and fresher than Italy and I shall go for a 2-1 German win.

Odds
Germany 19/20
Italy 4/1
Draw 12/5
«1

Comments

  • Italy were made to look somewhat better than I personally think they are by a poor England showing. Italy looked good because of the amount of possession they enjoyed against England. They won't enjoy the same versus the Germans. Pirlo looked on a different planet on Sunday but I can't see the Germans be as tactically nieve as Hodgeson was in not sticking a player on Pirlos laces. The Germans look very fit confident and strong and Italy might well be tired after going to penalties against England. Not high scoring but an efficient German 2 - 0
  • 0-0 and Italy on penalties.
  • Amazed and delighted that Italy have had a realtively straightforward passage with such an unfancied team and with a number of key injuries. Hoping that Noccerino's cameo will have earned him a start ahead of the woeful Montolivio. May mix it up shifting back to the 532 formation as all four of the full backs used have shown good attacking ability. However not having as good a team, all the right backs out, two days' less rest and a tougher quarter mean that the Azzuri will be unlikely to maintain it's lifelong hoodoo over the Germans. I fully expect the focus of the Italian midfield to switch from Pirlo to the more athletic Marchisio and would not be at all surprised to see a surprise inclusion, up front.
  • Agree Mort I think Nocerino should be given a go although Prandelli does like his favourites. I know he is 34 but I'd like to see Di Natale start he would pose a much bigger threat up front than Balotelli
  • edited June 2012
    Its an odd one. though i cant stand ze germans, i also dislike balotelli. after watching that crap interview he did with Noel Gallagher it turns out he doesn’t do all the things that made me like him. give money to a tramp, pay for peoples petrol and so on.

    so I’m not sure. the best team to challenge spain in the final would probably be Germany. i just hope tonight’s game is better than yesterdays, not so much cancelling each other out and more full on attacks. And maybe a mass brawl. with balotelli getting hit round the face with a corner flag.
  • Come on Italy!
  • If it goes to pens I'd quite like to see them bringing in corner flag fighting as a better way of deciding it. Who would like to see Balio vs Schwienstiger smashing each other in the head with the flags? Or Pirlo deftly dodging an enraged Gomez swipe and puncturing one of the big man's nuts with a cheeky swipe of the pointy end? I think a lot fewer teams would be happy to hang on for the draw if they thought they would have to deal with the likes of an enraged Coco Hendry bearing down on them with a spike.

    The Spanish might continue to dominate with their bullfighting skills, but then again they might not find it so easy if they don't have a bunch of fops on horses trying to slow down, say Yaya Toure, with swords as he bore down on one of their tikkiatakka matadors.

    Kermo would be an absolute weapon in that type of thing.
  • come on Italy £10 e/w @ 14/1 pre-tournament has swung it for me...;o)
  • I want Germany to win not for any particular reason but I do think a Germany v Spain final might be better than an Italy v Spain one which might be more like last nights Spain v Portugal match.
  • come on Italy £10 e/w @ 14/1 pre-tournament has swung it for me...;o)
    did the same (£2 @ 14/1). i had a funny feeling about the italians

    also got £20 on germany to win the tournament at 3/1. fairly confident whoever wins tonight will beat spain, thus me being slightly better off : )
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  • Meant to add a little fact to the OP:

    Could it be fate that Italy will meet spain in the final, it seems quite a regular occurrence that the final is contested between two teams that met in the opening round of games and it is following a pattern of every other tournament:

    Euro 2004 Final - Portugal v Greece
    Euro 1996 Final - Germany v Czech Republic
    Euro 1988 Final - Soviet Union v Netherlands
  • I want Germany to win purely because I've enjoyed watching them the most this tournament, they are the best team in it and I think it'll be a better final.

    That said, Italy have been far more expansive than previously so I think either of them will give the Spanish a good run for their money.

    If Balotelli's packed his shooting boots, unlike against us, I can see a fairly high scoring game.
  • Part Italian so Forza Azzuri

    But the Germs I have money on eachway for the tourney (spain also)
  • I hope Italy win but all I can see is the Germans winning the whole thing.

    Germany 3 - 1 Italy
  • Germany V Italy Score 2-0 ( 8-1 ladbrokes )
    Ozil to score anytime and Germany to win ( 6-1 William Hill )
    Gomez to score 1st ( 11-2 Stan James )
  • lol. Vialli comparing the German team to tanks just then. Er...maybe not the most appropriate analogy but quite funny.
  • volaré .. oh hoh .. cantaré oh ho ho ho
  • LINE-UPS:
    Germany: Neuer, Boateng, Hummels, Badstuber, Lahm, Schweinsteiger, Khedira, Kroos, Ozil, Podolski, Gomez.

    Subs: Wiese, Gundogan, Schmelzer, Howedes, Schurrle, Klose, Mueller, Bender, Mertesacker, Gotze, Reus, Zieler.



    Italy: Buffon, Balzaretti, Barzagli, Bonucci, Chiellini, Pirlo, Marchisio, Montolivo, De Rossi, Balotelli, Cassano.

    Subs: Sirigu, Ogbonna, Thiago Motta, Abate, Di Natale, Giaccherini, Borini, Giovinco, Diamanti, Nocerino, De Sanctis.
  • Heart with Italia but head says 2-1 for Germany.
  • Forza Azzuri as I'm quarter Italian.

    But I need the Germs to go through for financial reasons.
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  • Germany win and a Gomez blank would be nice


  • But I need the Germs to go through for financial reasons.

    This

    my germany/ronaldo double is still on
  • Game on.
  • Mmaaaaarrrriiioooooo. What.a.finish
  • Quality
  • What a difference between last night and tonight game ! This is much more like a premiership game . None of that 65 passes between defence and midfield . Good stuff .
  • Mario 2 Germans 0 Two great goals.
  • How good are England looking now? Italy couldn't get one past us in 120 minutes.
  • Very happy for the Italians. Hope they go through.
  • Germans still only 8/1 on PP to win. Not touching that!
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